STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES

November 1, 2014*

Shelly Paulk

Revenue Analyst

*To be updated after official release of documents from the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.

GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSINCOME VS. EXPENDITURES

(In Millions)

(2.56%)

(2.3%)

(2.88%)

(3.66%)

General Revenue Fund SourcesTrend Based Projections, In Millions

(TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) Ave. 4.3% Growth

Ave. 6.5% Growth

Ave. 1.3% Growth

Ave. 5.1% Growth

Ave. 4.3% Growth

OMES ACTUALS 10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND–BASED PROJECTIONS

FY-2016 – FY-2017

SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS

JUNE BOE EST.

General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year)

6.0% 4.6%

4.7%

10.6%

(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)

(TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES)

0.5%1.1%

4.8%

ACTUALS Based on OMES 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax

Credits, plus OHLAP & ROADS Funding

4.7%

JUNE BOE ESTIMATE

PROJECTIONS OF GRF DECLINEAS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL COLLECTIONS

ACTUALS PROJECTIONS