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NOTE: FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE CONFLICTS, PLEASE SEE THE DISCLOSURE PAGES AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT. © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. Before the Bell An Ameriprise Investment Research Group Publication Dec. 6, 2021 Starting the Day U.S. futures pointing to a higher open European equities trading higher at mid-day Asian equities finished mixed overnight Will a winter surge in COVID derail the recovery? All roads lead to Friday's November CPI report 10-year Treasury yield at 1.39% West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trading at $68.35 Monday Morning Market Strategy: David M. Joy, Chief Market Strategist Bond markets have been buffeted by a series of crosscurrents, resulting in a surge in volatility dating back to the middle of September. The ICE Move index of treasury curve volatility had produced an average weekly reading of 54 over the twelve months ended mid-September. Since then, the index of climbed to a reading of 79 at the end of last week, and reached as high as 89 on November 26th . That spike in volatility can be seen clearly in the path of intermediate and longer-term interest rates. The yield on the ten-year treasury note stood at 1.30 percent on September 15th. By October 21st it was 1.70. From there, it fell to 1.49 0n November 9th., then rose to 1.67 on November 23rd., before ending last week at 1.34 percent. The yield on the thirty-year bond has followed a generally similar path, except that from its 1.87 percent yield on September 15th. it peaked at 2.16 on October 11th., , before ending last week at 1.68 percent, well below where it began. In contrast, the path of the two-year note has been quite different. On September 15th its yield stood at 0.21 percent, and from there it has risen steadily, with a couple of pullbacks, to where it ended last week at 0.59 percent. These moves, and the divergences between them, speak to the crosscurrents and the varying influence they are exerting on different parts of the yield curve. The initial move higher in yield followed indications that the Fed was moving toward the commencement of tapering its bond buying program. At the time, this represented a shift in thinking at the Fed which until then had believed that, although it had achieved its goal of anchoring inflation at or above its target of 2 percent, it still had work to do toward its second mandate of full employment. But the Fed was being pressured by rising inflation, even though it was that was still likely to be transitory in its view. But the chorus of those warning that the Fed risked falling behind the curve and allowing inflation to spiral out of control was growing louder. The release of the October consumer price index on November 9th, which showed a rise of 6.2 percent, added to the concern and pushed rates higher still. Then, on November 24th, word of the Omicron covid variant surfaced, raising concerns that another round of restrictions and lockdowns might slow the global economy once again, especially at a time when the Delta variant was resurging in a number of regions, most notably Europe. Being more sensitive to Fed rate hikes, the two-year note yield has remained elevated. It did fall briefly following the Omicron news but climbed once again last week after Fed Chair Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that it was time to drop the word “transitory” in reference to inflation, and to consider accelerating the pace of tapering. Market expectations for the liftoff in interest rates have now been brought forward into the middle of next year, with between two and three quarter point rate hikes by year-end. In contrast, longer maturities took their cue from the Omicron news and fell sharply. As a result, the yield curve has flattened significantly. The spread between the two and ten-year notes has fallen from 109 basis points on September 15th to 75 at the end of last week.

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Page 1: Starting the Day - cdn.ameriprisecontent.com

NOTE: FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE CONFLICTS, PLEASE SEE THE DISCLOSURE PAGES AT THE END OF THIS DOCUMENT.

© 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.

Before the Bell An Ameriprise Investment Research Group Publication Dec. 6, 2021

Starting the Day U.S. futures pointing to a higher open

European equities trading higher at mid-day

Asian equities finished mixed overnight

Will a winter surge in COVID derail the recovery?

All roads lead to Friday's November CPI report

10-year Treasury yield at 1.39%

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trading at $68.35

Monday Morning Market Strategy: David M. Joy, Chief Market Strategist

Bond markets have been buffeted by a series of crosscurrents, resulting in a surge in volatility dating back to the middle of September. The ICE Move index of treasury curve volatility had produced an average weekly reading of 54 over the twelve months ended mid-September. Since then, the index of climbed to a reading of 79 at the end of last week, and reached as high as 89 on November 26th .

That spike in volatility can be seen clearly in the path of intermediate and longer-term interest rates. The yield on the ten-year treasury note stood at 1.30 percent on September 15th. By October 21st it was 1.70. From there, it fell to 1.49 0n November 9th., then rose to 1.67 on November 23rd., before ending last week at 1.34 percent. The yield on the thirty-year bond has followed a generally similar path, except that from its 1.87 percent yield on September 15th. it peaked at 2.16 on October 11th., , before ending last week at 1.68 percent, well below where it began. In contrast, the path of the two-year note has been quite different. On September 15th its yield stood at 0.21 percent, and from there it has risen steadily, with a couple of pullbacks, to where it ended last week at 0.59 percent.

These moves, and the divergences between them, speak to the crosscurrents and the varying influence they are exerting on different parts of the yield curve. The initial move higher in yield followed indications that the Fed was moving toward the commencement of tapering its bond buying program. At the time, this represented a shift in thinking at the Fed which until then had believed that, although it had achieved its goal of anchoring inflation at or above its target of 2 percent, it still had work to do toward its second mandate of full employment. But the Fed was being pressured by rising inflation, even though it was that was still likely to be transitory in its view. But the chorus of those warning that the Fed risked falling behind the curve and allowing inflation to spiral out of control was growing louder. The release of the October consumer price index on November 9th, which showed a rise of 6.2 percent, added to the concern and pushed rates higher still. Then, on November 24th, word of the Omicron covid variant surfaced, raising concerns that another round of restrictions and lockdowns might slow the global economy once again, especially at a time when the Delta variant was resurging in a number of regions, most notably Europe.

Being more sensitive to Fed rate hikes, the two-year note yield has remained elevated. It did fall briefly following the Omicron news but climbed once again last week after Fed Chair Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that it was time to drop the word “transitory” in reference to inflation, and to consider accelerating the pace of tapering. Market expectations for the liftoff in interest rates have now been brought forward into the middle of next year, with between two and three quarter point rate hikes by year-end. In contrast, longer maturities took their cue from the Omicron news and fell sharply. As a result, the yield curve has flattened significantly. The spread between the two and ten-year notes has fallen from 109 basis points on September 15th to 75 at the end of last week.

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Other credit market indicators are exhibiting a degree of concern as well. Two-year swap spreads have widened by 50 basis points. Libor rates over treasury bills have edged higher. And since the release of the October CPI report, high yield spreads have widened by 53 basis points, and BBB spreads have widened by 16.

Thus far, these moves are relatively modest, and do not yet indicate a permanent shift in the outlook for inflation and the economy. And we continue to expect inflation to recede over the second half of next year. But they do speak to a shift in perception that fundamental conditions have changed and so is monetary policy.

The challenge for the Fed is not knowing what influence the Omicron variant will have. It could simultaneously exacerbate supply chain bottlenecks and slow economic activity. And to the extent that certain aspects of the rise in inflation may ultimately prove to be transitory, as supply and demand imbalances subside, the Fed may be removing accommodation just as inflationary pressures are beginning to ease. All of which is further complicated by the November jobs report which, despite the headline miss on the payroll survey, showed strong underlying trends in participation, the household survey, and the length of the workweek. The worry is that inflation could become imbedded into contractual relationships, such as wages and rents, especially with workers proving to be increasingly scarce. Some observers point to the recent labor settlement at John Deere, which included generous wage increases and cost-of-living adjustments as a possible watershed event in this regard.

The November CPI report will be released on Friday, and is expected to climb to 6.7 percent, keeping the heat on. But the elevated monthly readings in the CPI calculation will begin to ease toward the end of the first quarter, and energy prices have also fallen back to where they were last March. When the Fed met in September, it anticipated one rate hike next year, and a terminal rate for this cycle of 2.5 percent, and not until beyond 2024. It projected headline PCE inflation of 2.2 percent in each of the next two years, and a core rate of 2.3 and 2.2 percent. When it meets next week, the question will be not whether those projections have changed, but rather by how much.

Market Perspectives Anthony M. Saglimbene, Global Market Strategist

Inflation & Omicron could keep markets on the defensive this week: After a little over one week of the world learning of the first Omicron COVID-19 variant case in South Africa, the mutation has spread to every major continent across the globe, including cases reported in several U.S. states. The combination of more hawkish monetary policy comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in testimony to Congress and the unknowns surrounding Omicron contributed to sending the S&P 500 Index down 1.2% last week. The Dow Jones Industrials Average lost 0.9%, the NASDAQ Composite shed 2.6%, while the Russell 2000 Index sank 3.9% on the week. A looming government shutdown (which was avoided) and a weaker-than-expected November jobs report also weighed on sentiment. As the Ameriprise chart below shows, selling pressure was broad-based last week, adding to all 11 S&P 500 sectors moving lower during the last 30 days and many sectors currently sitting in the red over the previous three months. Certainly not the trend most investors were hoping/expecting to see in the final days of 2021.

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Below are a few items to keep an eye on this week: Will Omicron and Delta force a winter virus surge? That's one central question. The other is how effective current

vaccines will be against fighting Omicron. Both questions are likely to remain unanswered over the very near term. We believe both dynamics could create opportunities for increased market volatility over the coming weeks, particularly until studies show how effective current vaccines are at fighting severe disease and hospitalizations of Omicron. As of right now, the Delta variant remains the major COVID-19 strain dominating the airwaves. Currently, hospitalizations and death due to COVID-19 are predominantly in populations that are not vaccinated. We believe markets may eventually look through virus conditions if vaccinated individuals and populations continue to see high protection against COVID-19 variants. As a result, such a condition would lower the chance/need for stricter restrictions on individuals and businesses in the U.S. if a surge in the virus did develop over the coming months. Notably, the U.S. economy and likely other developed economies would remain largely open for business in 2022 under a scenario where vaccines offer protection against worst-case outcomes.

Markets could continue to fluctuate on Fed dynamics. While the Federal Reserve's FOMC has moved into a quiet period ahead of next week's December meeting, investors are still digesting implications from Mr. Powell's comments last week. Markets could continue to oscillate over the coming days as investors attempt to discount when the Fed might reduce asset purchases at a faster pace (particularly after receiving updates on inflation). Will the Fed reduce its bond-buying at a quicker clip this month, or wait until January? Bottom line: The Fed could fully unwind its asset purchases as soon as March if economic/pandemic conditions cooperate. That's three months sooner than initially outlined. And Fed Fund futures are now pricing in a roughly 75% chance the Fed hikes rates by June, also sooner than initially planned. Look for investors to continue to unwrap economic data, pandemic developments, and Fed comments/speeches within the context of what they imply for forward monetary policies.

All roads lead to Friday's CPI report. Economic data is relatively light on the week. The October JOLTS report on Wednesday and a preliminary look at December U of M Sentiment on Friday are the two reports worth noting. However, it's the November CPI report at the end of the week that will grab all the attention. FactSet estimates are looking for headline CPI to move to +6.7% y/y, up from the +6.2% pace in October. Such a pace would score a nearly 40-year high in the headline figure, primarily driven by higher gasoline prices. However, core CPI (ex-food and energy) is also expected to rise to +4.9% in November, higher than the +4.6% pace seen in October. Bottom line: inflation is running hot. And while we see base effects easing next year and more normalization across supply chains helping reduce price pressures over time, the here and now points to an inflation environment that could start to slow growth trends if left unchecked. We suspect that's why Fed Chair Powell surprised the market last week with his more hawkish tones to help put investors on notice. Meaning, the Fed is watching inflation pressures too, and notably, it is now more willing to change course if needed to address the dynamic. As a result, we expect markets to react negatively if November CPI matches or comes in hotter than forecast on Friday. Unfortunately, a tick or two lower than forecast is unlikely to change the Fed narrative, which in our view, doesn't offer much upside for markets either way. However, investors should take a longer view on inflation and continue to prepare for an environment where prices remain higher for longer but moderate over time in areas that the pandemic has disrupted.

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U.S. Pre-Market Indicators / Overnight International Market Activity

United States: Here is a quick news rundown to start your morning: Stocks look to change the trend at the open. Lately, stocks have had a tough go of it, with Omicron and the Fed

souring investors' moods. However, pre-market activity this morning has the Dow and S&P 500 Index looking to start the week higher on some more favorable Omicron developments. Early signs from South Africa show Omicron symptoms are generally mild, and patients in hospitals need less medical attention. Over the weekend, disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said early signals on the severity of Omicron appear "encouraging." Notably, Fauci reiterated that current vaccines would offer some level of protection against the new variant and maybe a considerable degree of protection. So, at least here in the U.S., investors seem willing to buy the better pandemic news at the start of the week.

Crypto volatility rises: Over the weekend, bitcoin fell to a low of $43,000 before rebounding to above $48,000 currently. On Friday morning, the digital token was trading at around $57,000. While the crypto typically sees wild swings and volatility from time to time, the moves over the weekend may have caught some traders by surprise. While reasons for the large swings over the weekend vary, including a big investor in bitcoin potentially seeing a margin call, a flash crash, or a more significant de-risking event by some investors are as good a reason as any, in our view. Bitcoin is down about 30% from its all-time close in early November and is now in a bear market (i.e., defined by a 20% or more decline from a market top).

Washington Update: After Congress kicked the can down the road until mid-February to come up with a budget last week, the focus now turns to the debt ceiling and Build Back Better legislation. Depending on who you ask, the government could lose the ability to issue debt as soon as the middle of this month or sometime in January. Until the debt ceiling is raised, markets remain more susceptible to volatility and the risk of a misstep in Congress. As for Build Back Better, press reports continue to highlight a great deal of skepticism Democrats will be able to pass the bill in the Senate before year-end.

Europe: The latest Eurozone Sentix survey, which measures investor confidence, dropped to its lowest level since April. Notably, investors took a more sour view of current conditions in the survey, with the component falling for the third straight month to hit its weakest level since May. However, the outlook remained stable and increased for the second consecutive month. The investor survey highlights views that the Eurozone is moving through a temporary slowdown, though a new COVID-19 variant, inflation, and central bank policies pose ongoing risks to growth.

Asia-Pacific: Asian equities finished the overnight session mixed, with growth areas of the market underperforming value. Most of the trading focus was on Omicron and its uncertainty for the world and the region. According to FactSet, some forecasters have begun to revise their growth projections lower for Emerging Asia, given the region's propensity to enforce strict restrictions to control outbreaks. Further, COVID-19 cases remain elevated in South Korea, with pockets of infection across mainland China.

Specific to China, another property developer defaulted on a debt payment due on Sunday. However, broader contagion risks continue to appear limited, based on China's regulatory moves that have helped ease developers' financing constraints, per FactSet.

Finally, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) cut its bank reserve ratio requirement by 50 basis points to help spur lending to small businesses and support the economy. The move is the second cut in the RRR this year, following a 50 basis point reduction in July.

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WORLD CAPITAL MARKETS 12/6/2021 As of: 8:30 AM ET

Americas % chg. % YTD Value Europe (Intra-day) % chg. %YTD Value Asia/Pacific (Last Night) % chg. %YTD Value S&P 500 -0.8% 22.4% 4,538.4 DJSTOXX 50 (Europe) 0.7% 18.6% 4,108.4 Nikkei 225 (Japan) -0.4% 3.3% 27,927.4 Dow Jones -0.2% 15.0% 34,580.1 FTSE 100 (U.K.) 0.9% 15.2% 7,189.5 Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -1.8% -12.0% 23,349.4 NASDAQ Composite -1.9% 17.8% 15,085.5 DAX Index (Germany) 0.5% 11.2% 15,249.7 Korea Kospi 100 0.2% 4.0% 2,973.3 Russell 2000 -2.1% 10.3% 2,159.3 CAC 40 (France) 0.8% 25.7% 6,822.9 Singapore STI 0.5% 13.1% 3,116.3 Brazil Bovespa 0.0% -11.7% 105,070 FTSE MIB (Italy) 1.0% 17.8% 26,196.8 Shanghai Comp. (China) -0.5% 3.3% 3,589.3 S&P/TSX Comp. (Canada) -0.6% 21.3% 20,633.3 IBEX 35 (Spain) 1.2% 5.7% 8,342.2 Bombay Sensex (India) -1.6% 20.0% 56,747.1 Mexico IPC -0.6% 17.6% 50,597.3 MOEX Index (Russia) -2.1% 22.1% 3,830.0 S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) 0.1% 15.3% 7,245.1

Global % chg. % YTD Value Developed International % chg. %YTD Value Emerging International % chg. %YTD ValueMSCI All-Country World Idx -0.8% 14.1% 724.2 MSCI EAFE -0.4% 7.0% 2,235.1 MSCI Emerging Mkts -0.9% -3.2% 1,224.6

Note: International market returns shown on a local currency basis. The equity index data shown above is on a total return basis, inclusive of dividends.

S&P 500 Sectors % chg. % YTD Value Equity Income Indices % chg. % YTD Value Commodities Communication Services -0.5% 17.5% 258.7 JPM Alerian MLP Index -0.7% 24.5% 172.7 Futures & Spot (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD Value Consumer Discretionary -1.8% 21.6% 1,574.7 FTSE NAREIT Comp. TR -0.4% 30.1% 26,359.7 CRB Raw Industrials 0.1% 24.8% 637.3 Consumer Staples 1.4% 9.6% 744.9 DJ US Select Dividend 0.1% 25.4% 2,740.0 NYMEX WTI Crude (p/bbl.) 3.0% 40.6% 68.2 Energy -0.7% 51.5% 415.3 DJ Global Select Dividend 0.5% 17.6% 242.4 ICE Brent Crude (p/bbl.) 2.9% 38.8% 71.9 Financials -1.5% 30.8% 631.2 S&P Div. Aristocrats 0.3% 19.3% 3,976.9 NYMEX Nat Gas (mmBtu) -8.8% 48.4% 3.8 Health Care 0.3% 16.3% 1,517.4 Spot Gold (troy oz.) -0.3% -6.3% 1,778.7

Industrials 0.0% 16.6% 862.2 Spot Silver (troy oz.) -0.8% -15.3% 22.4

Materials -0.2% 19.1% 534.0 Bond Indices % chg. % YTD Value LME Copper (per ton) -1.1% 22.4% 9,486.0 Real Estate -0.4% 33.8% 298.5 Barclays US Agg. Bond 0.4% -1.0% 2,368.9 LME Aluminum (per ton) 0.9% 33.7% 2,638.3 Technology -1.7% 27.4% 2,895.7 Barclays HY Bond 0.1% 3.8% 2,426.0 CBOT Corn (cents p/bushel) -0.6% 31.9% 580.8 Utilities 1.0% 10.0% 340.6 CBOT Wheat (cents p/bushel) -0.5% 24.5% 799.8

Foreign Exchange (Intra-day) % chg. % YTD Value % chg. % YTD Value % chg. % YTD Value Euro (€/$) -0.2% -7.6% 1.13 Japanese Yen ($/¥) -0.4% -8.8% 113.22 Canadian Dollar ($/C$) 0.4% -0.6% 1.28British Pound (£/$) 0.2% -3.0% 1.33 Australian Dollar (A$/$) 0.5% -8.5% 0.70 Swiss Franc ($/CHF) -0.6% -4.1% 0.92

Data/Price Source: Bloomberg. Equity Index data is total return, inclusive of dividends, where applicable.

MSCI All-Country GAAC GAAC MSCI All-Country GAAC GAAC

World Index GAAC Tactical Recommended World Index GAAC Tactical Recommended

Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight

United States 58.4% Overweight 3.0% 61.4% Latin America 0.9% Equalweight - 0.9%

Europe ex U.K. 13.2% Overweight 3.0% 16.2% Asia-Pacific ex Japan 14.2% Underweight -2.0% 12.2%

United Kingdom 3.5% Equalweight - 3.5% Japan 6.0% Underweight -3.0% 3.0%

Canada 2.8% Equalweight - 2.8% Middle East / Africa 1.0% Underweight -1.0% 0.0%

as of: September 30, 2021

Global Equity Regions - Tactical Views

Index weightings are based on the regional market capitalizations of the MSCI All-Country World Index as of 09/24/2021. The GAAC Tactical Overlay, as well as the Recommended Tactical Weights, are derived

from the Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee (GAAC). Views are expressed relative to the Index and are provided to represent investment conviction in each region. Tactical Allocations are designed to

augment Index returns over a 6-12 month time horizon. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

S&P 500 GAAC GAAC S&P 500 GAAC GAAC

Index GAAC Tactical Recommended Index GAAC Tactical Recommended

Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight Weight Tactical View Overlay Weight

Information Technology 28.1% Overweight 2.0% 30.1% Communication Services 11.2% Equalweight - 11.2%

Financials 11.2% Overweight 2.0% 13.2% Energy 2.6% Equalweight - 2.6%

Industrials 8.0% Overweight 2.0% 10.0% Real Estate 2.6% Equalweight - 2.6%

Health Care 13.4% Equalweight - 13.4% Materials 2.6% Equalweight - 2.6%

Consumer Discretionary 12.3% Equalweight - 12.3% Consumer Staples 5.7% Underweight -4.0% 1.7%

Utilities 2.5% Underweight -2.0% 0.4%

Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee (GAAC)

Index weightings represent the respective market capitalization of each sector in the S&P 500 as of 09/24/2021. The GAAC Tactical Overlay, as well as Recommended Tactical Weights, is derived from the Ameriprise Global

Asset Allocation Committee (GAAC).Views are expressed relative to the Index and are provided to represent investment conviction in each region. Tactical Allocations are designed to augment Index returns over a 6-12

month time horizon. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

U.S. Equity Sector - Tactical Views

As of: September 30, 2021

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The Week Ahead:

Russell T. Price, CFA, Chief Economist Unless otherwise noted, all economic estimates are sourced from Bloomberg and all corporate earnings measures are sourced from FactSet.

The Economic Calendar: Investors have a mix of economic data to consider this week. The calendar starts on Tuesday with the Trade Balance for October of which forecasters expect a rather large month-to-month narrowing.

A material improvement in the trade picture could add to expectations of a strong Q4 real GDP performance. In the Advance estimate as related to the trade balance for Goods, the Commerce Department said the deficit narrowed by a significant $14 billion. We currently forecast the improved trade picture to add 0.4 tenths of a percentage point (pp) to real GDP in Q4 as opposed to the 1.4 pp drag it incurred in Q3.

On Wednesday, the Labor Department provides another angle on the nation’s job market via its Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTs) report for October. Forecasters expect the number of job openings to remain fairly steady at about 10.4 million. However, equally important, analysts will be looking to the number of quits for the month to determine if the “great resignation” may be nearing its end. While net job growth, as reported by Friday’s Employment Report, has been somewhat weaker than expected in recent quarters, the elevated number of people simply quitting their jobs has clearly been part of the issue. Through September, the were 1.25 job openings across the American economy per workers identifying as unemployed.

Of course, the week’s highlight comes on Friday with the release of the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. The Index reached a more than 30-year high in October (since Dec. 1990) with a year-over-year rate of +6.2%. Forecasters expect November was another “hot’ month for price hikes with the Bloomberg consensus looking for a +0.7% month-over-month gain (the Index was a sharp 0.9% higher in October). A +0.7% rate for the month would take the y/y rate to +7.0% which would be its highest level since 1982.

Higher energy prices are again expected to foster much of the upside in the headline Index (though the Core rate is still expected to see a strong +0.5% increase) as gasoline prices did not start to moderate until late in the month. Additionally, gasoline prices normally decline modestly in November for a seasonal adjustment pattern that will add further upside.

We believe there could also be room for the report to show modestly softer than expected results. Automobile prices may steady as output is has been starting to improve the cost of some services may ease amid softer demand due to ongoing virus concerns.

We currently forecast headline CPI to see a near-team peak of +7.1% in December and 7.0% in January before rates should start to ease as the first quarter comes to an end. Actuals as depicted in the chart at right are sourced from the Labor Department while estimates are via American Enterprise Investment Services Inc.

December 6 7 8 9 10Retail Sales - Italy Labor Productivity JOLTS / Job Openings Initial Jobless Claims UofM Consumer Sentiment

Unit Labor Costs Inflation - China Wholesale Inventories Consumer Price Index

Trade Balance Retail Sales - Brazil Inflation - Mexico Inflation - Germany

GDP - Japan Monetary Policy - Canada Industrial Production - India

GDP - Eurozone Monetary Policy - Brazil Inflation - Brazil

Industrial Production - Germany Industrial Production - Spain

Manufacturing PMI - Canada Industrial Production - Mexico

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Where Market Fundamentals Stand Heading into The Week: S&P 500 Trailing and Forward P/E valuations: Source: FactSet

Please note: Although we try to maintain consistency as much as possible, Price to Earnings (P/E) ratios may differ somewhat from once source to another. Most notably, P/E numbers can often show their most notable differences during an earnings release season as some sources may still use the last full ‘actual’ earnings number (for instance, currently Q2 trailing 12-month earnings per share) while others use earnings per share that are updated for Q3 using a combination of actual and estimated earnings per share. The calculation of earnings (operating earnings versus ‘as reported’ or GAAP) also often differs modestly from one data source to another due to the proprietary use of calculation methodologies. The “average” shown in the charts below represent averages for the period shown.

Consensus Earnings Estimates: Source: FactSet

Please note: The consensus earnings estimates shown below should viewed cautiously. The business environment remains very dynamic given virus conditions, thus leaving current estimates with greater uncertainty than usual, in our view.

S&P 500 Earnings Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2023

12/6/2021 Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Est. Est. Est. Est. Est.Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

Quarterly $$ amount $33.35 $28.25 $39.40 $42.30 $49.03 $52.81 $53.86 $51.05 $52.00 $55.00 $57.45 $57.83

change over last week $0.00 $0.05 -$0.06 -$0.01 $0.05 $0.05 $0.66

yr/yr -14.0% -32.1% -6.7% 1.2% 47.0% 86.9% 36.7% 20.7% 6.1% 4.1% 6.7% 13.3%

qtr/qtr -20% -15% 39% 7% 16% 8% 2% -5% 2% 6% 4% 1%

Trailing 4 quarters $$ $133.50 $164.05 $164.38 $158.93 $145.59 $142.78 $143.30 $158.98 $183.54 $198.00 $206.75 $209.72 $211.91 $215.50 $222.28 $243.47

yr/yr % change 11.6% 22.9% 0.2% -12.8% 44.3% 7.5% 9.5%

Implied P/E based on a S&P 500 level of: 4538 22.9 21.9 21.6 21.4 21.1 20.4 18.6

2020 2021 2022

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Economic News and Views:

Russell T. Price, CFA – Chief Economist

Releases for Monday, December 6, 2021 All times Eastern. Consensus estimates via Bloomberg

None Scheduled Commentary: Foreclosure prevention programs largely performed as intended. At the peak, 7.7 million mortgage holders took

advantage of the federal moratorium on foreclosures during the pandemic. The moratorium concluded at the end of July. But rather than the foreclosure crisis some doomsayers predicted the market appears to be re-adjusting quite well. Under the program, payments missed were added to the end of the loan term as opposed to up-front “catch-up” payments.

More than half of the 7.7 million mortgages are once again current, according to mortgage data and analytics provider Black Knight. About 23% sold their homes or refinanced, while approximately 7% are currently still trying to work-out a loan modification plan with their lenders. Overall, about 3% of mortgages are delinquent and about 38,000 are in foreclosure.

Additionally, those homeowners still struggling to meet their monthly payment are very unlikely to face a similar path than that experienced during the Financial Crisis, in our view. Today, about 87% of the mortgages in the foreclosure process have positive equity and 73% have more than 20% equity, according to RealtyTrac. The chart below is sourced from the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s quarterly Household Credit and Debt Report.

Ameriprise Economic Projections

Chronological Forecast Adjustments: Russell T. Price, CFA – Chief Economist GDP: (10/29/2021): Actual real GDP for Q3 came-in at +2.0% - moderately below our estimate of +2.4%. Reduced

business spending on automobiles (largely due to lack of availability) was the most prominent factor in the shortfall versus our expectations, while higher than estimated import activity (which is a negative contributor to GDP) also weighed on the results more than we anticipated.

Forecast:

Actual Actual Est. Est. Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Est. Est.

2019 2020 2021 2022 Q4-2020 Q1-2021 Q2-2021 Q3-2021 Q4-2021 Q1-2022 Q2-2022

Real GDP (YOY) 2.3% -3.4% 5.5% 4.5% 4.5% 6.3% 6.7% 2.1% 6.5% 4.5% 5.0%

Unemployment Rate 3.5% 6.7% 4.3% 3.5% 6.7% 6.0% 5.9% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7%

CPI (YoY) 1.8% 1.3% 7.0% 2.5% 1.3% 2.6% 5.4% 5.4% 7.0% 6.2% 4.2%

Core PCE (YoY) 1.7% 1.4% 4.6% 2.4% 1.5% 2.0% 3.6% 3.6% 4.6% 4.5% 3.0%Sources: Historical data via FactSet. Estimates (Est.) via American Enterprise Investment Services Inc.

YoY = Year-over-year, Unemployment numbers are period ending. GDP: Gross Domestic Product; CPI: Consumer Price Index

A ll Quarterly est imates o ther than GD P are perio d ending .

Full-year Quarterly

Last Updated: November 29, 2021

PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Core excludes food and energy.

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To the positive, consumer spending was notably stronger than we expected. We were forecasting a +0.5% qtr/qtr. pace of expansion whereas the Commerce Department report showed a strong +1.6% gain. The Commerce Department attributed the strength to a strong return of international travel spending late in the quarter.

Overall, the slowdown in Q3 was primarily due to the Delta-variant’s negative impact on domestic consumer and business spending. Some items, particularly automobiles, remained unavailable in the quantities desired by consumers and businesses due to infection outbreaks elsewhere in the world.

Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee Targets and Views

Targets

Outlook Commentary: Anthony M. Saglimbene, Global Market Strategist November 10: The S&P 500 could finish the year above our base and favorable targets. In our view, that's a win for investors. We doubt investors would find much value in an S&P 500 target adjustment that attempts to predict the last several weeks of the year after the Index has already posted such substantial gains in 2021. Thus, we are comfortable leaving our S&P 500 targets unchanged through the rest of the year and recognize the market's bias could be higher than we forecast in July (the last time we changed our S&P 500 targets). And while the final S&P 500 level this year may fall outside our base and favorable targets, the current messaging and direction around our targets (and the scenario forecasts found in the latest Quarterly Capital Market Digest) should remain applicable through year-end.

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Recommended Weightings

Note: Our Tactical Allocations are designed to augment a Strategic portfolio over a 6-12-month time horizon. Asset Allocation and diversification do not ensure or guarantee better performance and do not eliminate the risk of investment losses. Investors should note that rising interest rates could have a detrimental effect on bond prices. Please consult with your financial advisor. Cash generally refers to assets, securities and/or products low in risk and highly liquid. For asset allocation purposes, instruments can include Treasury bills, certificates of deposit, money market funds and high-quality bonds whose maturities are less than 3 months. Outside of asset allocation purposes, cash investments can also include illiquid cash held in a mutual fund or pledged as collateral for derivatives. You can only access this cash by redeeming the fund using it, subject to fees or time constraints associated with redemptions.

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The Ameriprise Investment Research Group With Ameriprise Financial, you can benefit from our dedicated team of experienced investment research and due diligence professionals. Our objective market insight, strategies and guidance are designed to provide you with investment strategies and solutions to help you feel more confident about your financial future. It’s the higher level of sophistication and service you’ve come to expect from Ameriprise.

Research and due diligence leader

Lyle B. Schonberger Vice President

Business Unit Compliance Liaison Jeff Carlson, CLU, ChFC Sr Manager

Kimberly K. Shores Investment Research Coordinator

Jillian Willis Sr Administrative Assistant

Strategists

Chief Market Strategist David M. Joy Vice President

Global Market Strategist Anthony M. Saglimbene Vice President

Thomas Crandall, CFA, CMT, CAIA Sr Director – Asset allocation

Cedric Buermann Jr., CFA Analyst – Quantitative, Asset allocation

Gaurav Sawhney Research Analyst

Amit Tiwari, CFA Sr Research Associate

Chief Economist Russell T. Price, CFA Vice President

Equity research

Justin H. Burgin Vice President

Patrick S. Diedrickson, CFA Director – Consumer goods and services

William Foley, ASIP Director – Energy and utilities

Lori Wilking-Przekop Sr Director – Financial services and REITs

Daniel Garofalo Director – Health care

Frederick M. Schultz Director – Industrials and materials

Open Director – Quantitative strategies and international

Andrew R. Heaney, CFA Technology and Communication Services

Manager research

Michael V. Jastrow, CFA Vice President

Mark Phelps, CFA Director – Multi-asset solutions

ETFs, CEFs, UITs Jeffrey R. Lindell, CFA Director

James P. Johnson, CFA, CFP® Sr Analyst

Alternatives Justin E. Bell, CFA Vice President – Quantitative research and alternatives

Kay S. Nachampassak Director

Quantitative research Kurt J. Merkle, CFA, CFP®, CAIA Sr Director

Peter W. LaFontaine Sr Analyst

David Hauge, CFA Analyst

Blake Hockert Sr Associate

Bishnu Dhar Sr Research Analyst

Parveen Vedi Sr Research Associate

Darakshan Ali Research Process Trainee

Equities Christine A. Pederson, CAIA, CIMA Sr Director – Growth equity, infrastructure and REIT

Benjamin L. Becker, CFA Director – International and global equity

Cynthia Tupy, CFA Director – Value equity and equity income

Open Analyst – Core equity

Fixed income Steven T. Pope, CFA, CFP® Sr Director – Non-core fixed income

Douglas D. Noah, CFA Sr Analyst – Core taxable and tax-exempt fixed income

Fixed income research and strategy

Brian M. Erickson, CFA Vice President

Jon Kyle Cartwright Sr Director – High yield and investment grade credit

Stephen Tufo Director – High yield and investment grade credit

Retirement research

Rohan Sharma Vice President

Matt Morgan Director

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The content in this report is authored by American Enterprise Investment Services Inc. (“AEIS”) and distributed by Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC (“AFS”) to financial advisors and clients of AFS. AEIS and AFS are affiliates and subsidiaries of Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Both AEIS and AFS are member firms registered with FINRA and are subject to the objectivity safeguards and disclosure requirements relating to research analysts and the publication and distribution of research reports. The “Important Disclosures” below relate to the AEIS research analyst(s) that prepared this publication. The “Disclosures of Possible Conflicts of Interest” section, where applicable, relates to the conflicts of interest of each of AEIS and AFS, their affiliates and their research analysts, as applicable, with respect to the subject companies mentioned in the report.

Each of AEIS and AFS have implemented policies and procedures reasonably designed to ensure that its employees involved in the preparation, content and distribution of research reports, including dually registered employees, do not influence the objectivity or timing of the publication of research report content. All research policies, coverage decisions, compensation, hiring and other personnel decisions with respect to research analysts are made by AEIS, which is operationally independent of AFS.

Important disclosures As of September 30, 2021

The views expressed regarding the company(ies) and sector(s) featured in this publication reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) authoring the publication. Further, no part of research analyst compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this publication.

A part of a research analyst’s compensation may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of which investment banking, sales and trading, and principal trading are components. No part of a research analyst’s compensation is based on a specific investment banking transaction, nor is it based on sales, trading, or principal trading. A research analyst may have visited the material operations of one or more of the subject companies mentioned in this research report. No payment was received for the related travel costs.

Additional information and current research disclosures on individual companies mentioned in this research report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor. You may also submit a

written request to Ameriprise Financial, Inc., 1441 West Long Lake Road, Troy MI, 48098. Independent third party research on individual companies is available to clients at ameriprise.com/research-market-insights/. SEC filings may be viewed at sec.gov.

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of a mutual fund or exchange traded fund (ETF) carefully before investing. For a free prospectus, which contains this and other important information about the funds, please contact your financial advisor. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing.

Tactical asset class recommendations mentioned in this report reflect The Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee’s general view of the financial markets, as of the date of the report, based on then current conditions. Our tactical recommendations may differ materially from what is presented in a customized long-term financial plan or portfolio strategy. You should view our recommendations in conjunction with a broader long- term portfolio strategy. Not all products, services, or asset classes mentioned in this report may be available for sale at Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. Please consult with your financial advisor.

Diversification and Asset Allocation do not assure a profit or protect against loss.

Risk Factors Dividend and interest payments are not guaranteed. The amount of dividend payment, if any, can vary over time and issuers may reduce or eliminate dividends paid on securities in the event of a recession or adverse event affecting a specific industry or issuer. Should a company be unable to pay interest on a timely basis a default may occur and interruption or reduction of interest and principal occur. Investments in a narrowly focused sector may exhibit higher volatility than investments with broader objectives and is subject to market risk and economic risk.

Income Risk: We note that dividends are declared solely at the discretion of the companies’ boards of directors. Dividend cuts or eliminations will likely negatively impact underlying company valuations. Published dividend yields are calculated before fees and taxes. Dividends paid by foreign companies to ADR holders may be subject to a withholding tax which could adversely affect the realized dividend yield. In certain circumstances, investors in ADR shares have the option to receive dividends in the form of cash payments, rights shares or ADR shares. Each form of dividend payment will have different tax consequences

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and therefore generate a different yield. In some instances, ADR holders are eligible to reclaim a portion of the withholding tax.

International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are particularly significant in emerging markets.

Market Risk: Model portfolios and markets in general could sustain significant volatility due to several factors. As we have seen recently, both economic and geopolitical issues could have a material impact on this model portfolio and the equity market as a whole.

Sector Risk: The Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee and managers of this model portfolio can elect to overweight or underweight (or completely avoid) certain economic sectors. This could lead to substantial underperformance versus a more diversified or balanced weighting.

Security Recommendation Risk: The research team may not be successful in selecting securities that collectively perform better than the benchmark. When viewing return comparisons investors should keep in mind the following information. Our model portfolio generally maintains less than 50 securities, whereas benchmark indices contain several times that amount. The benchmark index is market capitalization weighted, providing greater weight to the larger company movements, whereas our model portfolio is designed to be equally dollar weighted. Furthermore, the model portfolio may deviate significantly, at times, from the sector allocation of the benchmark due to our interpretation of economic conditions and market factors as well as our security selection process.

The benchmark index returns are taken from Bloomberg Financial Markets and reflect dividends reinvested. Additionally, there is no fee or cost assumption in the index comparison return.

Product Risk Disclosures

Corporate Bonds are debt instruments issued by a private corporation. Non-Investment grade securities, commonly known as “high-yield” or “junk” bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the loss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher-rated issue.

American Depository Receipts (ADR) are securities issued by a U.S. bank that typically represent a foreign

company’s equity and that trade similarly to domestic equities, and are either listed on an exchange or over-the- counter. As with any equity investment, ADRs are subject to market and company specific risks. ADRs will also be subjected to foreign market risks. These risks include possible losses due to foreign currency translation, geopolitical instability, and deviations in the market value of an ADR compared to that of the underlying common shares in its primary market. ADRs may suffer from a lack of investor protection and recourse. In the event of a liquidation of the underlying company, the holders of its ADRs are not guaranteed of being able to enforce their right of claim and therefore they may lose their entire investment. Investors of ADRs may also take on risks associated with the parties involved with the sponsoring Bank.

Alternative investments cover a broad range of strategies and structures designed to be low or non-correlated to traditional equity and fixed-income markets with a long-term expectation of illiquidity. Alternative investments involve substantial risks and are more volatile than traditional investments, making them more suitable for investors with an above-average tolerance for risk.

There are risks associated with fixed-income investments, including bond funds, such as credit risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.

Growth securities, at times, may not perform as well as value securities or the stock market in general and may be out of favor with investors.

International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are enhanced for emerging market issuers.

Interest payments on inflation-protected securities may be more volatile than interest payments on ordinary bonds. In periods of deflation, these securities may provide no income.

Index definitions

An index is a statistical composite that is not managed. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Definitions of individual indices mentioned in this report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures/ in the Additional

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Ameriprise research disclosures section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor.

Disclosures of potential conflicts of interest

One or more members of the research team who prepared this research report may have a financial interest in securities mentioned in this research report through investments in a discretionary separately managed account program.

Disclaimer section

Except for the historical information contained herein, certain matters in this report are forward-looking statements or projections that are dependent upon certain risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to, such factors and considerations as general market volatility, global economic and geopolitical impacts, fiscal and monetary policy, liquidity, the level of interest rates, historical sector performance relationships as they relate to the business and economic cycle, consumer preferences, foreign currency exchange rates, litigation risk, competitive positioning, the ability to successfully integrate acquisitions, the ability to develop and commercialize new products and services, legislative risks, the pricing environment for products and services, and compliance with various local, state, and federal health care laws. See latest third-party research reports and updates for risks pertaining to a particular security.

This summary is based upon financial information and statistical data obtained from sources deemed reliable, but in no way is warranted by Ameriprise Financial, Inc. as to accuracy or completeness. This is not a solicitation by Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC of any order to buy or sell securities. This summary is based exclusively on an analysis of general current market conditions, rather than the appropriateness of a specific proposed securities transaction. We will not advise you as to any change in figures or our views.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Investment products are not federally or FDIC-insured, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value. Third-party companies mentioned are not affiliated with Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC.

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. and its affiliates do not offer tax or legal advice. Consumers should consult with their tax advisor or attorney regarding their specific situation.

Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. Member FINRA and SIPC.