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Stalling Tropical Cyclones
John W. Nielsen-GammonTexas A&M University
Kerry A. EmanuelMassachusetts Institute of Technology
Measure of Stalling: Corral Size
• Contains all storm locations over three days
Image: New York Times 2017, with data from NWS, NASA GEOS, and IBTRACS
Harvey’s corral radius: 123 km centered at 12 UTC Aug 27 Average maximum sustained wind while stalled: 50 kt (26 m/s)
50
75
100
125
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200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
CorralRad
ius(km)
AverageWindSpeed(mph)
200-400inland 100-200inland 0-100inland 0-50offshore
50-100offshore 100-150offshore 150-200offshore
Coastal Stalls At Least As Slow and Intense As Harvey
Flora 1963
5 Days 1910
Mitch 1998
Harvey 2017
One of 2 costliest Atlantic storms ever
One of 5 deadliest known Atlantic storms
One of 5 deadliest known Atlantic storms
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75
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125
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175
200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
CorralRad
ius(km)
AverageWindSpeed(mph)
200-400inland 100-200inland 0-100inland 0-50offshore
50-100offshore 100-150offshore 150-200offshore
Record Totals (mm)
2550
1300
760
236
1538452
482959
1148
308
676
830
541
707
1033
652
250 702
470372
579 FL
USGA
AL
CUBA
1576MEXICO
Probability of Storm Accumulated Rainfall at Houston, from 6 Climate models, 1981-2000 and 2081-2100, Based on 2000
Events Each. Shading shows spread among the models.
Harvey
Number of Coastal Stalls:100 km inland to 50 km offshore
0
2
4
6
8
Other
Cuba
Mex/CentAm
USA
Late 1800s > > > Early 2000s
Stalling Tropical Cyclones
• Intense, on a coast (4, including Harvey):– 2 of the 5 deadliest; 1 of the 2 most costly
• Near a coast:– Record rainfall for US (TX), FL, GA, AL, Cuba
• More coastal stalls in recent years– Climate change and stalling: maybe
– Climate change and heavier rain from stalling: yes
• Bottom line: a strong storm stalling near a coastline is rare, but usually very bad (and will get worse)
• Stalling research new, not yet peer reviewed
Contact Information
• John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University
– Regents Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and Texas State Climatologist
– [email protected] 979-575-8532
• Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
– Professor of Atmospheric Science
– [email protected] 617-253-2462
Stalled Tropical Cyclones: Month, Intensity
