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Stabilization WedgesTackling the Climate Problem with Existing
Technologies
Roberta Hotinski
CLEER UAB Seminar, March 6, 2010
2 2 = 4 billion tons go out
Ocean Land Biosphere (net)
Fossil FuelBurning
+
8
800billion tons carbon
4billion
tons go in
ATMOSPHERE
billion tons added every year
Billions of tons of carbon
“Doubled” CO2
TodayPre-Industrial
Glacial
800
1200
600400
billions of tons carbon
ATMOSPHERE
( ppm)
(570)
(380)
(285)
(190)
Why Wedges?
Predicted global temperature change of 1.4 - 5.8°C by 2100
Graphic courtesy of IPCC
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Historical emissions
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
Historical Emissions
1.6
Interim Goal
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current p
ath =
“ram
p”
Historical emissions Flat path
Stabilization Triangle
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 tC/yr.
The Stabilization Triangle
1.6
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current p
ath =
“ram
p”
Historical emissions Flat path
0
8
16
1950 2000 2050 2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 tC/yr.
Stabilization Wedges
16 GtC/y
Eight “wedges”
Goal: In 50 years, sameglobal emissions as today
What is a “Wedge”?What is a “Wedge”?A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr avoided within 50 years
1 GtC/yr
50 years
Total = 25 Gigatons carbon
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years.
A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
$100/tC$100/tC
Form of EnergyForm of Energy Equivalent to $100/tCEquivalent to $100/tCNatural gasNatural gas $1.50/1000 scf$1.50/1000 scf
Crude oilCrude oil $12/barrel$12/barrel
CoalCoal $65/U.S. ton$65/U.S. ton
GasolineGasoline 25¢/gallon 25¢/gallon (ethanol subsidy: 51¢/gallon) (ethanol subsidy: 51¢/gallon)
Electricity from coalElectricity from coal 2.2¢/kWh 2.2¢/kWh (wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.9 (wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.9 ¢/kWh)¢/kWh)
Electricity from natural Electricity from natural gasgas
1.0¢/kWh1.0¢/kWh
$100/tC was approximately the EU trading price for carbon $100/tC was approximately the EU trading price for carbon (~$30/ton CO(~$30/ton CO22) in September 2008 (Now ~$18)) in September 2008 (Now ~$18)
A wedge is 2.5 trillion dollars ($100 billion/yr) at $100/tC. A wedge is 2.5 trillion dollars ($100 billion/yr) at $100/tC.
Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $100/tC can enable Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $100/tC can enable scale-up of most of the wedges. (PV is an exception.)scale-up of most of the wedges. (PV is an exception.)
Energy Efficiency & Conservation
Stabilization Triangle
Renewables & Biostorage
15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Nuclear Power
2008 2058
TriangleStabilization
Fossil Fuel-Based
Strategies
Use the Wedges Table to compare strategies:
= Electricity Production, =Heating and Direct Fuel Use, =Transportation, = Biostorage
Strategy Sector Description 1 wedge could come from… Cost Challenges
1. Efficiency – Transport
Increase automobile fuel efficiency
(2 billion cars projected in 2050)
… doubling the efficiency of the all world’s cars from 30 to 60
mpg $
Car size & power
2. Conservation - Transport
Reduce miles traveled by passenger and/or freight
vehicles
… cutting miles traveled by all passenger vehicles in half
$ Increased public transport, urban
design
3. Efficiency -Buildings
Increase insulation, furnace
and lighting efficiency
… using best available technology in all new and
existing buildings $
House size, consumer demand
for appliances
4. Efficiency –Electricity
Increase efficiency of power generation
… raising plant efficiency from 40% to 60%
$ Increased plant
costs
5. CCS Electricity
CO2 from fossil fuel power plants captured, then stored
underground (700 large coal plants or 1400
natural gas plants)
… injecting a volume of CO2 every year equal to the volume
of oil extracted $$
Possibility of CO2 leakage
6. CCS Hydrogen
Hydrogen fuel from fossil sources with CCS displaces
hydrocarbon fuels
… producing hydrogen at 10 times the current rate
$$$ New infrastructure needed, hydrogen
safety issues
7. CCS Synfuels Capture and store CO2 emitted
during synfuels production from coal
… using CCS at 180 large synfuels plants
$$ Emissions still only break even with
gasoline
8. Fuel Switching – Electricity
Replacing coal-burning electric plants with natural gas plants
(1400 1 GW coal plants)
… using an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all
purposes today
$
Natural gas availability
9. Nuclear Electricity
Displace coal-burning electric plants with nuclear plants
(2 x current capacity)
… ~3 times the effort France put into expanding nuclear
power in the 1980’s, sustained for 50 years
$$
Weapons proliferation, nuclear
waste, local opposition
10. Wind Electricity
Wind displaces coal-based electricity
(30 x current capacity)
… using area equal to ~3% of U.S. land area for wind farms
$$ Not In My Back Yard
(NIMBY)
11. Solar Electricity
Solar PV displaces coal-based electricity
(700 x current capacity)
.. using the equivalent of a 100 x 200 km PV array
$$$ PV cell materials
12. Wind Hydrogen
Produce hydrogen with wind
electricity
… powering half the world’s cars predicted for 2050 with
hydrogen
$$ NIMBY, Hydrogen
infrastructure, safety
13. Biofuels $$
Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled
Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency
Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings
Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge
EfficiencyEfficiency
There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055
Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today
Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA
Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities
A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today
Fuel SwitchingFuel Switching
Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).
A wedge worth of natural gas requires about 190 bscfd - U.S. currently imports about 17 bscfd
Implement CCS at
• 800 GW coal electric plants or• 1600 GW natural gas electric
plants or• 180 coal synfuels plants or• 10 times today’s capacity of
hydrogen plants
Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey
Carbon Capture & StorageCarbon Capture & Storage
There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500.
Requires about 100 times the amount of CO2 currently injected annually for EOR (most in the U.S.)
Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055
Nuclear ElectricityNuclear Electricity
Graphic courtesy of NRC
The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990.
104 of world’s 435 nuclear electric plants are in the United States
Wind ElectricityWind Electricity
Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity,
OR
Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel
Photo courtesy of DOE
A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 15
Current U.S. capacity about 35,000 MW
Solar ElectricitySolar Electricity
Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program
Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054
A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times
US PV potential estimated to be ~500 GW
(Navigant Consulting and Clean Power Research, Study for the Energy Foundation)
BiofuelsBiofuels
Photo courtesy of NREL
Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops
Scale up current global ethanol production by 20 times
Need ~1000 billion liters ethanol per year for a wedge – U.S. currently producing ~40 billion liters/yr
Natural SinksNatural Sinks
Photo courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO
Eliminate tropical deforestation
OR
Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S.
OR
Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha)
Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland
U.S. forest sequestration potential estimated at 100-200 million tons C/yr
(Birdsey et al.)
Please take a minute and choose 8 wedge Please take a minute and choose 8 wedge strategies you feel are the most promising for strategies you feel are the most promising for
reducing global emissionsreducing global emissions
(can use duplicates)(can use duplicates)
Wedges totals (average of event)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
1
Forest/Soil Storage
Biofuels
Wind Hydrogen
Solar
Wind Electricity
Nuclear Electricity
Fuel Switch
CCS Synfuels
CCS Hydrogen
Electric Eff.
Building Eff.
Conservation Transp.
Transport Eff.
CCS Electricity
Take Home MessagesTake Home Messages• To avoid a doubling of To avoid a doubling of
atmospheric COatmospheric CO22, we need to , we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinksenhance natural sinks
• We already have an adequate We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissionsmake large cuts in emissions
• No one technology can do the No one technology can do the whole job whole job –– a variety of a variety of strategies will be neededstrategies will be needed
• Every Every ““wedgewedge”” has associated has associated impacts and costs impacts and costs
From McKibben, “Carbon’s New Math,” National Geographic, October 2007
From Socolow & Pacala, “A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check,” Scientific American, Sept. 2006
For more information contactFor more information contact
Roberta HotinskiRoberta [email protected]@princeton.edu