St Louis Real Estate Market StatisticsTrends Presentation on 2-10-10

8/14/2019 St Louis Real Estate Market StatisticsTrends Presentation on 2-10-10

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The ‘Real’ Refor 2010 iPresented at The L

February

t. ou s,Kevin Cottrell –

kevin@kelseycottrell.

Shawn Kelsey – shawn@kelseycottrell

http://www.stlouisre

l

Estate MarketSt. Louis

dge, Des Peres, MO

11, 2010

ssourhief Economist

com / 314-779-3600

anaging Broker.com / 314-434-2222

alestatetoday.com/

http://www.stlouisrealestatetoday.com/





Who is Correct aMetro Real E• “Housing Market Prepar

Following Removal of Sufounder of center for econo

• “Lifeline Needed for UndSuggested that "4.5 Million

more than their homes are

Magazine Website 2-3-10

• “Foreclosures Down 10%

RealtyTrac - 2-11-10

out the St. Louisstate Market?s for Renewed Plunge

ports .” – Dean Bakeric policy 1-27-10

rwater Home Owners” -home owners owe 75%

orth". NAR – Realtor

in January 2010” –



Who is Correct aMetro Real E

• “4 Million Foreclosures iPossibility” – MoneyWatc

“ high largely because mor

their homes to avoid fore

8/09

• “It's still a buyer's marke

90 to 100 days for an offe

out the St. Louisstate Market?

2010? It’s A Real– 12-15-09

people are trying to sell

losure” – SLAR President –

…sellers to expect to wait

– SLAR President 1/10



Months

Housing Inventory (left axis)

Buyers

19 Years of Natio

Source: NAR

Existing Home Sales – Single Family Homes

ar e

Million

Sellers

nal Market Shifts

right axis)

Market



Historical Re

5

8

Existing: 4New:

0

3

1 9 7 0

1 9 7 3

1 9 7 6

1 9 7 9

1 9 8 2

1 9 8 5

1 9 8 8

Existing:

l Estate Sales

800

1000

1200

1400

98M transactions in 2008433K transactions in 2008

0

200

400

600

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 7

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 6

.16M transactions in 2009



MortgagFixed Rate

1971-

Source: Freddie Mac

e Rates- 30 Year

2007

Rates have not beenbelow 5.37 in 45 years

5.0%



Comparison of I

PriIncome and Price set t

1970-

Source: NAR

come to Home

ceIndex of 100 in 1970

2007



Housing Affordabi1970-

Source: NAR

lity & Home Price2007

Affordability (right axis)

Median Home Price (left axis)



Affordability is, a

the primary re• When interest rates go u

• When home prices rise,

• When affordabilit dro s

number of home sales dultimately drop.

• The more dramatic the ruthe steeper the decline in

d always will be,

l estate issue., affordability comes down.

ffordability drops.

oo low or too fast, the

crease and selling prices will

n-up in home appreciation,sales and prices.



What has H

Affordability• Interest Rates have drop

• Affordability Index is overwas 8 in Las Vegas and

• FHA Financing Available

• Median Price in US – do

• Aside from unemployme – market should be stabil

• Unemployment Rate was

ppened with

in St Louis?ed to 5% - over 6% in 2005

80 in STL (Peak of Marketan Diego)

up to $291,250

n from $214K to $173,500

t and consumer confidenceizing

4.6% - 2005 now +/- 10%



Housing Affordabi1970-

Source: NAR

lity & Home Price2010

Affordability (right axis)

2010 – Median $173.1

Median Home Price (left axis)

2010 – Index 167



Who’s Buying H

• 73% of Contracts in past

• 90% of Contracts in past

• FHA Driven Market - $29

• High end – especially inMarkets hardest Hit

• Unemployment too hightempering market

mes in St Louis?

30 days – Below $300K

30 days – Below $400K

1,250 Loan Limit

t Charles and Ex-Urban

Lack of Confidence is



Annual Sales in2004 2005

STL 14,640 14,345

-2.0%

STC 4,504 4,766

5.8%

CITY 3,748 3,990

6.5%

St Louis Metro2006 2007 2008 2009

13,470 12,171 10,634 10,761

-6.1% -9.6% -12.6% 1.2%

4,262 3,912 3,285 3,350

10.6% -8.2% -16.0% 2.0%

3,593 3,272 3,180 3,032

-9.9% -8.9% -2.8% -4.7%



Active Inventory i

2007 2008

STL 5,994 5,794

-3.3%

n St Louis County

2009 2010

4,782 3,740

-17.5% -21.8%



What’s up with

• Nationally – Up 1% in 20think all go to courthouse

• 869,812 vs 861,336 – FaREO

• STL Foreclosures down

• 2,226 REO – 0.51% of h

• Including Short Sales (PrSTL Sales

Foreclosures?

9 – Media Loves Filings andand sell

t: 99.49% of Filings not

4% in 2009 vs 2008

useholds – 21% of Filings

-Foreclosure) – 10-12% of



What Happen

Housing• Median price decreased f

$135.1 in 2009

• According to OFHEO Dat-2.35% in Q3 2009

• PMI Market Index – Move2010 (% risk of price decli

• PMI Pricing Index (-1.6%

d with St Louis

Prices?om $156.5 in 2005 to

– STL Prices Declined by -

d from <1 in 2007 to 38.7 innes – poor trend)

Q3 2009)



What’s Really Ha

to I apply this w/ • Overall list to sale in St Lo

sales in past six months (i

• Number of price reduction2.5 for ever listin – 300

• List to Sale gets worse – increases AND as propert

• Pricing of Property Up FroCondition) the primary dri

• More than 50% of listings

pening and How

uyers & Sellers?uis County – 94.9% for allcludes REO/Short Sales)

s in same period close to-600 ever 7 Da s

oth as price rangeis on market longer

nt (Not Marketing ander of whether it sells

expire vs sell



Case Shiller Doe

Now

n’t Cover STL –

hat?



Case Shiller Doe

Now

n’t Cover STL –

hat?



Case Shiller Doe

Now

n’t Cover STL –

hat?



Case Shiller Doe

Now

n’t Cover STL –

hat?



Yeah…But All R

Right? Chester

al Estate is Local

ield vs. Ballwin



Yeah…But

is Local Right?

ll Real Estate

Ballwin (con’t)



Yeah…But

is Local Right? Fe

ll Real Estate

nton vs. Florissant



Yeah…But

is Local Right

ll Real Estate

Fenton Con’t



So, Have Prices F

Valley Park

llen Everywhere?

vs. Glendale

S L i A

i i i L k



St. Louis - An

at the RMedian Sales Price - 1Appre

ptimistic Look

covery:970 to 2020 - at 6.4%iation

A M C i L k



A More Conse

RecMedian Sales Price 1980 t

rvative Look at

very:2020 at 4.3% Appreciation

?



What

• Market will not strengthenbusiness cycle recovers

• Now more than ever impsellers – regardless of ou

• Strong counsel to Buyersstrongly qualify – media c

• Know your #s – Saint Louavailable for Free @ ww

Next?

until job growth occurs and

rtant to tell the truth tocome

– set expectations andan ruin them

is Housing Market Stats are.stlouisrealestatetoday.com




Documents

St Louis Real Estate Market StatisticsTrends Presentation on 2-10-10