SST Webinar SLDS Webinar 1-27-121 The presentation will begin at approximately 2:00 p.m. ET Information on joining the teleconference can be found on the

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SST Webinar

SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

The presentation will begin at approximately 2:00 p.m. ET

Information on joining the teleconference can be found on the “Info” tab in the upper left of this screen. Be sure to use the “Attendee ID” number on the Info tab when dialing in to associate your name with your phone.

In order to cut down on background noise, please mute your phone by dialing *6 upon entry into the meeting.

During the question and answer portion of this presentation:• You can re-enter *6 to unmute your phone and ask a

question; or• Type your question into the Q&A panel below the

participant list and clicking “Send”.

A copy of this presentation and a link to the recording will be shared with the IES Grantees and EIMAC listservs.

Early Warning Systems

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SST Webinar

PanelistsJenny Curtin (Massachusetts)Bill Hurwitch (Maine)Tom Olson (South Carolina)

Agenda• Background and description of each state’s early warning system• Brief description of indicators or risk factors• Information from MA users and implications for a new design• Questions from participants



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SST WebinarEarly Warning Systems

Massachusetts

Early Warning Indicator System Development


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SST WebinarEarly Warning Systems -- MA

Massachusetts’ Current Early Warning Indicator Index

• MA created an Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII), which has been in place since 2008

• Each year all first-time grade 9 students are assigned to 1 of 5 risk levels (from very low risk to very high risk)

• The system has been refined each year – but has always been based on middle school data and looked at the likelihood of a student not graduating within 4 years


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In the current system risk levels assigned are based on five data elements:• Spring 2011 grade 8 MCAS mathematics scores• Spring 2011 grade 8 English language arts (ELA)

scores• 2010-11 grade 8 attendance rate• Number of 2009-10 and 2010-11 suspensions (in or

out of school)• Age as of September 1, 2011


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In Process – Expanded EWIS• The development of the new system will focus on

PK-12 – and will look more broadly at the likelihood of a child/student “falling off track”

• American Institutes for Research is developing the new risk model based on national research and our local data and needs

• We are also garnering multiple stakeholder input:• Diverse EWIS Advisory Group at the state level • Focus groups and interviews with district and school

leadersSLDS Webinar 1-27-12

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New Risk Model Key Concepts• Age Groups

• Focus on the birth through 12th grade continuum• Groups are developmentally appropriate and relevant

• Indicators • Monitoring, end of year, and transition

• Outcome Variables• Relevant to age group• Actionable by adults responsible for age group

• Indicator Risk Thresholds (low, moderate, and high risk)


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Age Groupings and Outcome Variables


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Next Steps for Expanded EWIS• This project also includes the development of a

technical solution to provide EWIS data to educators

• Training will be provided to assist districts in the technical use of the data, as well as best practice for using the data to inform interventions• EWIS can be used as a trigger for further investigation

on student needs (root cause analysis) – EWIS is not a diagnostic tool


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Advice for Other States• Rely on stakeholder (internal and external)

input throughout the process• There is a constantly changing “data

landscape”• Be open to including data that is newly collected

or expected to be collected in the near future• Consider creating a plan to revisit the risk

model(s) regularly to refine and improve


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MA EWIS information:http://www.doe.mass.edu/ccr/ewi/

MA Commissioner’s Updates related to the EWIS:http://www.doe.mass.edu/mailings/2011/cm092011.htmlhttp://www.doe.mass.edu/mailings/2012/cm0113.html


http://www.doe.mass.edu/ccr/ewi/

http://www.doe.mass.edu/mailings/2011/cm092011.html

http://www.doe.mass.edu/mailings/2012/cm0113.html

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Maine

Maine At-Risk Data Mart


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SST WebinarEarly Warning Systems -- ME

● SLDS data warehouse module that educators use to identify, address and manage a problem, opportunity or strategy.●Uses SLDS data to identify students at risk●Allow educators to create, assign and manage

programs and interventions for at-risk students and track student progress

● Provide reports and data for analysis of model results as well as analysis to improve the model and programming


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At-Risk Drop-out Model• The initial model was designed as a high

school dropout early warning and management system

• Students are initially evaluated as they enter 9th grade using research-based indicators from SLDS data

• Educators can assign learning strategies, programs and interventions and track progress during school year


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College Readiness Model• Requested by the Maine Community

College System Presidents Council• Identify high school students at risk of

needing postsecondary remedial or developmental courses

• Deliver the courses during in high school• Improve student performance on

ACCUPLACER and other measuresSLDS Webinar 1-27-12

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College Readiness Model Goals• Reduce need for remedial or developmental

courses in college• Reduce need for students to pay for a non-credit

course• Indicate to students not considering

postsecondary education that they may be college ready

• Provide feedback on readiness and success for high schools


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College Readiness Indicators*• SAT Participation Rates• SAT Scores/State Assessment Results• High School GPA• Completion of Algebra II• Attendance• Completion of FAFSA• Completion of 4 Years of Mathematics• Course Completion/Scores in Dual Enrollment/Early

College, Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate

* New England Secondary School Consortium (CT/ME/NH/RI/VT)


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Considerations• Validate early warning system measures and

weights with qualified research• Establish processes to measure student progress

and the effectiveness of programs and interventions

• Provide the ability for educators to input school level data and programs

• Soft influences access and security


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South Carolina

Student Potential Performance Snapshot


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SST WebinarEarly Warning Systems -- SC

Student Enrollment Journey13. Re-enrolled Dropout

Discipline, Expulsion, Attendance Indicators:

14. At-Risk Discipline Events15. Suspension/Expulsions16. Absence Days

Retention, Grade Indicators:17. Times Retained18. Multiple Enrollments19. 9th Grade Math20. 9th Grade English

At-Risk Indicator Programs and Totals:21. Total At-Risk Indicators22. At-Risk Programs


Socio-Economic Indicators1. Overage2. Homeless3. Single Parent4. Displaced Homemaker5. English as a Second Language6. Disability7. Migrant8. SEI (Socio-Economic Indicator

Flag = Free/Reduced Lunch, Medicaid and TANF)

9. Justice System10. Foster

Credits Earned Indicators:11. Total Credits Earned At-Risk

Assessment Indicators:12. Total PACT/Pass(Not Met 1 or 2)

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SC Weighted At-Risk Index


SPPSINDICATORS

LEVEL 1 (Moderate Risk)

1 point

LEVEL 2 (High Risk)

2 points

WeightFor Risk Total

Notes

Daily Absences 4-8 days absent >8 days absent

2.0Level 2 is same as SPPS Daily

Absences flag

Overage n/a > 2 years above appropriate age

1.5Level 2 is same as SPPS Overage

flag

Credits Earnedn/a if

(9th =5 cr, 10th = 12 cr,11th = 18 cr)

Same requirements as credits flag

(9th <=4 cr, 10th <= 10 cr,11th <= 16 cr)

1.5

Level 2 is same as SPPS Creditsflag

All Suspensions (ISS, OSS, Other)

1 or 2 suspensions; no expulsions

3 or more suspensions; any expulsions

1.0

In school, out-of-school, and other suspensions included

PASS ELA Basic/Met Below Basic/Not Met 1 or 21.0 Latest score only

PASS Math Basic/Met Below Basic/ Not Met 1 or 21.0 Latest score only

Reading/English n/a Failing most current Reading or English grade

1.0 Previous year end Reading grade used for non-high school grade levels; English grade used

for high school

Math n/a Failing math grade 1.0 Uses year end course grade

from previous year.

Discipline Events 3-5 6 or more1.0 Current year discipline events

English Proficiency n/a A,B,C,D,1,2 or 3 ESL Score0.5 Uses SPPS ESL

flag

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SST Webinar

Questions?

Contact Info and Resources:Requests from State Support Team or SLDS Team:

Rosemary Collins, (202) 502-7354 [email protected]

Robin Taylor, (302) 236-2651 [email protected]

Panelists:Jenny Curtin, Massachusetts Department of [email protected]

Bill Hurwitch, Maine Department of [email protected]

Tom Olson, South Carolina Department of [email protected]



mailto:[email protected]





Documents

SST Webinar SLDS Webinar 1-27-121 The presentation will begin at approximately 2:00 p.m. ET Information on joining the teleconference can be found on the