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SSP process Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi and many others.
WG3 Community:
WG1 community – : WG2 Community:
Common scenarios
Scenarios provide insight into… socio-economic and development in
order to determine mitigation effort and
cost-benefits of climate change
Scenario provide insight into… plausible development of forcers and plausible climate futures
Scenarios provide insight into… socio-economic
development (vulnerability) and
climate change (impacts)
Scenarios play a key role in climate research
Adapted from Edmonds
RCPs
Climate SSPs
Scenarios as mean to link communities
Drivers (population
, GDP)
Energy use,
Land use Emissions
Conc./ forcing
Climate/ Environmental
change
Impact Exposed population, ability to adapt
Fo
rcin
g l
evel (W
/m
2)
8.5
6.0
4.5
2.6
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3
Shared Socio-economic Pathways
SSP4 SSP5 RCPs
Climate SSPs
Narratives Quantitative drivers
IAM reference scenario (e.g., SSP3-Ref)
IAM SSP-RCP scenario (e.g., SSP3-4.5)
The Scenario Matrix Architecture
Socioeconomic information
Climate information
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3
Shared Socio-economic Pathways
SSP4 SSP5
Challenge to adaptation
Challenge t
o m
itig
ation
The Scenario Matrix Architecture
Challenge to adaptation
Challenge t
o m
itig
ation
SSP1:Sustainability
SSP2: Middle of the Road
SSP3: Regional rivalry
SSP4: Inequality
SSP5: Fossil fuel-ed development
The Scenario Matrix Architecture
Narratives
Model tables
Energy
Land-use
Overview
Aerosol/Pollutant Emissions
SSP special Issue
O’Neill et al
GDP
POP
Urbanization
Dellink, Crespo, Leimbach et al.
KC & Lutz
Jiang & O’Neill
AIM
/CG
E, G
CAM
, IM
AG
E,
MESSAG
E-G
LO
BIO
M,
REM
IND
-M
AG
PIE
, W
ITCH
-GLO
BIO
M
SPAs
IAM-based
SSPs
Mitigation
scenarios
Riahi et al
Bauer et al
Popp et al
Rao et al
SSPs
KC and Lutz Dellink et al Jiang and O’Neil
A)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fin
al E
nerg
y (E
J)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
185018751900
1925
1970
1950
Oil + Gas
Renewables
NuclearCoal
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP1 IMAGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP4 GCAM4
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE
2010
SSP1
SSP4
SSP5
SSP3SSP2
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy S
tru
ctu
re (
five
ma
rke
r sc
en
ari
os
)
Non-fossil
(renewables & nuclear)
Oil & gas
Coal
Total Final Energy Demand
(all IAM scenarios)
LEGEND missing
• SSP colors (marker + range)
• History line and dot
• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)
LEGEND
SSP colors (marker + range)
Add AR5 max/min line
Primary Energy Triangle
(all IAM scenarios)
B) C)
A)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fin
al E
nerg
y (E
J)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
185018751900
1925
1970
1950
Oil + Gas
Renewables
NuclearCoal
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP1 IMAGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP4 GCAM4
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE
2010
SSP1
SSP4
SSP5
SSP3SSP2
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy S
tru
ctu
re (
five
ma
rke
r sc
en
ari
os
)
Non-fossil
(renewables & nuclear)
Oil & gas
Coal
Total Final Energy Demand
(all IAM scenarios)
LEGEND missing
• SSP colors (marker + range)
• History line and dot
• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)
LEGEND
SSP colors (marker + range)
Add AR5 max/min line
Primary Energy Triangle
(all IAM scenarios)
B) C)
A)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fin
al E
nerg
y (E
J)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
185018751900
1925
1970
1950
Oil + Gas
Renewables
NuclearCoal
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP1 IMAGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP4 GCAM4
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE
2010
SSP1
SSP4
SSP5
SSP3SSP2
Pri
mary
En
erg
y S
tru
ctu
re (
five
ma
rker
scen
ari
os)
Non-fossil
(renewables & nuclear)
Oil & gas
Coal
Total Final Energy Demand
(all IAM scenarios)
LEGEND missing
• SSP colors (marker + range)
• History line and dot
• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)
LEGEND
SSP colors (marker + range)
Add AR5 max/min line
Primary Energy Triangle
(all IAM scenarios)
B) C)
A)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fin
al E
nerg
y (E
J)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
185018751900
1925
1970
1950
Oil + Gas
Renewables
NuclearCoal
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP1 IMAGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP4 GCAM4
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE
2010
SSP1
SSP4
SSP5
SSP3SSP2
Pri
mary
En
erg
y S
tru
ctu
re (
five m
ark
er
scen
ari
os)
Non-fossil
(renewables & nuclear)
Oil & gas
Coal
Total Final Energy Demand
(all IAM scenarios)
LEGEND missing
• SSP colors (marker + range)
• History line and dot
• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)
LEGEND
SSP colors (marker + range)
Add AR5 max/min line
Primary Energy Triangle
(all IAM scenarios)
B) C)
A)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fin
al E
nerg
y (E
J)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
185018751900
1925
1970
1950
Oil + Gas
Renewables
NuclearCoal
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP1 IMAGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP4 GCAM4
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE
2010
SSP1
SSP4
SSP5
SSP3SSP2
Pri
mary
En
erg
y S
tru
ctu
re (
five m
ark
er
scen
ari
os)
Non-fossil
(renewables & nuclear)
Oil & gas
Coal
Total Final Energy Demand
(all IAM scenarios)
LEGEND missing
• SSP colors (marker + range)
• History line and dot
• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)
LEGEND
SSP colors (marker + range)
Add AR5 max/min line
Primary Energy Triangle
(all IAM scenarios)
B) C)
Coal
Oil/gas
Other
21 januari 2016 9
Bauer et al.
Baseline
4.5 W/2
2.6 W/2
Primary energy use (EJ)
Wide range from rewilding in the SSP1 to continious expansion of human-dominated area in SSP3
21 januari 2016 10
Popp et al.
Land area (million ha)
21 januari 2016 11
Rao et al.
Air pollution Much wider range than in RCPs… from high pollution world (SSP3) to clean air (SSP1/2.6-scenarios)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Sulfur
(MtS
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
RCPs
IAM range SSP marker
Greenhouse gas emissions
21 januari 2016 12
Riahi et al.
13
CO2 emissions
21 januari 2016 14
SSP5
SSP3
SSP2
SSP4
SSP1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
2.6 W/m2
Forcing (W/m2)
21 januari 2016 15
Scenario matrix architecture forms scenario tool kit
• Offers storylines and quantitative information for ‘reference scenarios’ for: • Further elaboration in impact research (consistent
set of socio-economic data) • Basis for new climate research (e.g. treatment of
land-use, aerosols) • Offers opportunity to elaborate scenarios in
regional/sectoral studies • Provides opportunity for mitigation ánd
impact/adaption research in one structure
SSP3 SSP2 SSP1 SSP3 SSP2 SSP1
Mitigation Impacts/adaptation
Feasibility and costs of targets greatly depend on the SSP
(Mitigation costs as % of GDP)
Fo
rcin
g l
evel (W
/m
2)
8.5
6.0
4.5
2.6
0.01 (0.01-0.03)
0.27 (0.01-0.27)
0.15 (0.08-0.15)
0.62 (0.23-1.00)
0.54 (0.44-0.54)
1.88 (0.50-1.88)
1.33 (1.33-3.47)
0.02 (0.02-0.02)
0.09 (0.03-0.28)
0.68 (0.46-0.68)
3.09 (3.09-4.62)
0.18 (0.1-0.18)
SSP1 SSP4 SSP2 SSP3 SSP5
0.09 (0.07-0.12)
0.93 (0.08-0.93)
0.43 (0.43-0.82)
2.09 (0.87-2.79)
1.40 (1.40-1.41) 3.4
0.04 (0.01-0.04)
1
<0.1
2
3
>5
Mitigation costs are given as area under the MAC and percent of total GDP (2010-2100)
Special Issue Global Environmental Change Riahi and van Vuuren (eds.) (under preparation)
Narratives: O’Neill et al (accepted)
Population: KC & Lutz (accepted)
GDP: (1) Leimbach et al, (2) Dellink et al, (3) Crespo (accepted)
Urbanization: Jiang & O’Neill (accepted)
5 x SSP marker papers
Crosscut papers:
– Energy (Bauer et al)
– Land-use (Popp et al)
– Air Pollution/Aerosols (Rao et al)
Submission before Dec, 15! Planned finalisation April 16
Next phase
SSP database
Scenario MIP
Climate Model output
Impact research
RCPs
Call for other teams to contribute
Strengthened database
Use in research projects
Use in other communities
Questions?
21 januari 2016 19