8/10/2019 Sri Lanka Survey on Voting Patterns – Presidential Election 2015

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Sri Lanka: Survey On Voting Patterns –Presidential Election 2015

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by T Lalithasiri Gunaruwanand and D !ayaweera!anuary "#$/#$/%#$&We' the undersigned' wish to put the reord straight regarding a researh we two

 ointly ha*e undertaken to de*elop an empirial model to analyse the ri Lankan *oterbeha*ior at +residential eletions o*er the past $# years with the obeti*e o,ontributing to the body o, soial researh-

$- This researh team was ointly led by us. T L Gunaruwan' enior Leturerattahed to the ni*ersity o, 0olombo and D !ayaweera' an independent poliyanalyst' urrently the Diretor General o, the ri Lanka Tourism De*elopment

 1uthority-

%- There is no ,ormal in*ol*ement o, the ni*ersity o, 0olombo or LTD1 in thisresearh' as it is the ase with regard to most o, our researh ati*ities' and anyin*ol*ement one ould imagine is limited to the e2tent o, us being employed at theseorganisations' and the researh team being omprised o, se*eral unior researhersand researh students attahed to the ni*ersity o, 0olombo' and our aademi and

researh ontat points at se*eral other ni*ersities-

3- Our interests were purely aademi and researh in nature' and thus' we ne*erreleased any o, the interim outomes o, our still"ongoing researh to media- 4owe*er'we ha*e reently obser*ed se*eral news items in media pertaining to a 50olomboni*ersity sur*ey6 on presidential eletions' some o, whih e*en ontained our names'but with some ontents we annot laim ownership-

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7- 8*en though we annot e2lude the possibility o, there being other sur*eysonduted by other researhers attahed to the ni*ersity o, 0olombo and otheraademi and researh institutions on this subet' it would be un,air i, suh are9uoted or published without the e2pliit onsent o, any suh researhers' inluding us'and more so i, the ontents are not properly reported so that misleading opinionsould be de*eloped in the minds o, the readers-

&- ine we realise the possibility o, these numerous reports 9uoting out o, onte2tour researh and their *arious outputs' we thought o, putting the reord straight byreleasing to media the outomes o, our researh as it stood at %:th Deember %#$7'while re9uesting all onerned to a*oid using these ,or any marketing or propagandapurposes- We' howe*er' ha*e no obetion o, anyone or organisation using these ,or,urther researh work or ,or their internal planning and strategi deision makingpurposes-

T Lalithasiri Gunaruwan' enior Leturer (8onomis)' ni*ersity o, 0olombo' and

D !ayaweera' +oliy 1nalyst (0urrently the DG/LTD1)

!anuary #$' %#$&

;<8= O> <OTI>G +1TT8;> ? +residential 8letion %#$&

(ur*ey onduted by a researh team o, the ni*ersity o, 0olombo)

ample @

(a) ;elati*ely smaller sample (little less than $###) ompared to total population o,little o*er $& million- ur*ey ,orms were olleted at on*eniene' and there,ore'distrit"wise or eletorate"wise representati*e sampling ould not be realised- Theresults ha*e to be perei*ed ha*ing proper understanding o, this aspet-

(b) O*er A# o, the sample were inhala Buddhists' and thus this sample has thatbias' gi*en that the o*erall share o, inhala Buddhist *oters is appro2imately :# o,the total *otes-

() >o sur*ey responses were obtained ,rom >orth (e2ept one respondent ,rom!a,,na' and two ,rom Cullati*u)' while muh larger number o, responses were obtained,rom 8ast' >orth 0entral' Western and outhern pro*ines- Only a ,ew responseswere obtained ,rom 0entral' *a' Wayamba and abaragamuwa +ro*ines-

(d) ample harateristis indiate that it is o*erwhelmingly biased towardsCahinda ;aapaksa' as out o, those who ha*e ast their *otes in the respeti*eeletions' o*er :& had *oted ,or C; in %#$# and %##& eletions (when his nationala*erage stood around &A in %#$# and ust abo*e &# in %##&)-

8/10/2019 Sri Lanka Survey on Voting Patterns – Presidential Election 2015

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;esults@$- 1round %# ,or the ,irst time *oters and nearly $3"$& o, the totalrespondents are still undeided- This indeision is still substantially high' and meansthat a lot ould still hange' partiularly through the e*ents and beha*ior o, parties

o*er the ne2t two weeks-%- Only $ o, the respondents in the aggregate sample pronouned pre,erene to*ote ,or a third andidate' while nearly 3 would *ote ,or no one- These ratios are %and :' respeti*ely' with regard to ,resh *oters- This indiates the likelihood o,relati*ely lesser share o, *otes polled by any andidate other than the two mainontenders' while the anellation rate also is likely to be relati*ely low (please notethat this perentage is ompatible with what was obser*ed at past national eletions)-3- In the ,ae o, it' 77 to 3 split between C; and C in a highly 5C;"biased6(as e2plained in 5d6 abo*e) sample points at the highly ompetiti*e nature o, the,orthoming eletion' where the possibility o, C;Es share going below &# is

substantial-7- The present sur*ey thus adopted a di,,erent approah to e2amine the trends-The %#$& *ote base was di*ided into 5new *otes6 and 5non"new *otes6. and the shareo, *otes polled by indi*idual andidates were onsidered with regard to 5new *otes6'while the 5shi,ts6 away ,rom C; (in %#$#) to C (in %#$&) and *ie"*ersa wereestimated and applied on to the population with regard to 5non"new *otes6-&- 1s per the sur*ey results' C; would obtain 3A o, the 5new"*otes6 while Cwould obtain 33- The balane would be aounted under *otes obtained by otherandidates' non"*oters' and those who are still undeided-F- With regard to 5non"new *otes6' nearly %A o, those who *oted ,or C; in %#$#

would shi,t towards C this time and $$ would still be undeided' while 7 o, thosewho *oted ,or arath onseka in %#$# would shi,t towards C; in %#$& while $$would be undeided- It is interesting to note that nearly 3# o, those who *oted ,orC; in %##& +residential eletion would de,let towards C in %#$&' and around o,those *oted ,or ;anil Wikramasinghe in %##& would de,let towards C; in theoming eletion-:- 1pplying the basi sur*ey results to the o*erall population' and using the %#$#eletion results as the basis ,or proetions' it ould be estimated that the hanes aregreater ,or C to win this eletion with around &3 o, the total *alid *otes' assumingthat the absentee *oter ratio stays unhanged at around %&-

A- This pattern was ross e2amined through an 5ethniity based6 analysis- Thiswas attempted beause the sur*ey sample appeared o*erwhelmingly 5inhalese6' andany shi,t alulated based on suh a biased sample would only apply to that partiularethni eletorate- The results indiated the likelihood o, C seuring a lead o, o*er %lakhs o, *otes o*er C; in this eletoral blok' pa*ing the way ,or an C *itory with alikely pre,erene ,or him in Tamil and Cuslim eletorates- The sur*ey results indiatethat C ould seure the re9uired &# o, total *alid *otes i, he manages to get aroundhal, o, the Tamil and Cuslim *otes' while C; would re9uire o*er F# o, the Tamil andCuslim *otes i, he is to surpass C in the o*erall ompetition and to ross o*er the

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ruial &# threshold-- The results thus indiate the importane ,or both andidates o, their marginsseured in the inhalese eletorate' whih aounts ,or o*er $$% lakhs or three",ourtho, the total number o, registered *oters- or instane' one lakh o, lead lost ,or C inthe inhala eletorate than the abo*e indiated sur*ey estimates would neessitatehim to seure o*er &: o, minority *otes (ompared to nearly &# re9uired in the

ase o, two lakhs o, lead in the inhala eletorate) ,or o*erall eletion *itory-$#- Based on the sur*ey estimates and a hypothetial 3&@F& ratio o, minority *otessplit between C; and C respeti*ely' the ethniity spei,i analysis would yield ano*erall outome loser to that proeted under (:) abo*e' with nearly F# lakhs o, *otes(&3) polled by C' &# lakhs (77) by C;' and 3 going to others-$$- 4owe*er' it must be emphasised that nearly %# o, the ,irst time *oters' andaround $3 o, the o*erall eletorate' are still undeided' whih ould go into eitheramp o*er the ne2t two weeks' and ould either rein,ore or re*erse the o*erallestimates made in this analysis- It is interesting to note that only less than $ o, theo*erall respondents pronouned interest in onstitutional re,orms or eonomi

hardships suh as high ost o, li*ing or unemployment- 1n o*erwhelming maoritye2pressing pre,erene ,or C; was ,or his war e,,ort' strong leadership against e2ternalinter*ention' national unity and not re*erting bak to war or separatism' and thosepre,erring C were largely owing to aountability' transpareny and go*ernaneissues in the C; rule- It is there,ore *ery lear that the inhalese *ote base' largelyre,leted in the sample sur*eyed' is sensiti*e to the national issue' and those stillundeided among them' e*en though a maority has not gi*en reasons ,or theirindeision' are prone to tilt towards the amp whih assures them o, peae andnational seurity- trategi sail through the ne2t two weeks o, ampaigning is there,orelikely to be ruial ,or both andidates-

 

0onlusionThis analysis there,ore tends to indiate a probable *itory ,or C at the ,orthoming+residential eletions- 4owe*er' there is a signi,iant share o, undeided *oters'whih makes the ompetition still wide open ,or both parties. and the estimates madein this analysis are likely to be in,luened by the deision that will be made by theseundeided *oters o*er the ne2t two weeks-T L Gunaruwan (ni*ersity o, 0olombo) and D !ayaweera (LTD1)!oint ur*ey 1nalysts

Deember %:' %#$7

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