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SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
SREPS Priority Project:final report
C. Marsigli, A. Montani, T. Paccagnella
ARPA-SIM - HydroMeteorological Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
F. Gofa, P. Louka
HNMS – Hellenic National Meteorological Service, Athens, Greece
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
This presentation is complemented by the posters:
On the impact of varying the value of a set of COSMO model parameters for short-range predictions. C. Marsigli, A. Montani, and T. Paccagnella
COSMO SREPS verification over Greece P. louka, F. Gofa and T Charantonis
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Outline
Brief recall about the COSMO-SREPS methodology
& system set-up
Analysis of the results on MAP D-PHASE OP Multi Model ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations
Relationship between error and spread
Conclusions
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
COSMO-SREPS methodology
i.c. and b.c. perturbations -> INM multi-model multi-boundary ensemble (SREPS)
LAM perturbations -> physics parameter perturbations
COSMO model perturbations - smaller scale errors
driving model perturbations (ics and bcs) - larger scale errors
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
INM
SREPS
25 km
COSMO
SREPS
10 km
COSMO
DE EPS
2.8 km
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
COSMO at 25 km on IFS
IFS – ECMWF globalb
y I
NM
S
pain
COSMO at 25 km on GME
GME – DWD global
COSMO at 25 km on UM
UM – UKMO global
COSMO at 25 km on GFS
GFS – NCEP global
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
System set-up
16 COSMO runs 10 km
hor. res.40 vertical
levels
COSMO at 25 km on IFS
IFS – ECMWF globalb
y I
NM
S
pain
COSMO at 25 km on GME
GME – DWD global
COSMO at 25 km on UM
UM – UKMO global
COSMO at 25 km on GFS
GFS – NCEP global
P1: control (ope)
P2: conv. scheme (KF)
P3: tur_len=1000
P4: pat_len=10000
00 UTCJJA=53 SON=54
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
run nr.parameter name parameter description range default used1 ctrl ope2 lconv convection scheme T or KF T KF3 tur_len maximal turbulent length scale [100,1000] m 500 1504 tur_len maximal turbulent length scale [100,1000] m 500 10005 pat_len length scale of thermal surface patterns [0,10000] m 500 100006 rat_sea ratio of laminar scaling factors for heat over [1,100] 20 17 rat_sea ratio of laminar scaling factors for heat over [1,100] 20 608 qc0 cloud water threshold for autoconversion [0.,0.001] 0 0.0019101112
13 c_lnd
surface area density of the roughness elements over land [1,10] 2 1
14 c_lnd
surface area density of the roughness elements over land [1,10] 2 10
15 rlam_heat scaling factor of the laminar layer depth [0.1,10] 1 0.116 rlam_heat scaling factor of the laminar layer depth [0.1,10] 1 10
crsmincrsminc_soilc_soil
Minimal stomata resistance 15015011 2
0
50200Minimal stomata resistance
Surface area index of the evaporating soilSurface area index of the evaporating soil
[50,200] s/m[50,200] s/m
]0,c_lnd[
]0,c_lnd[
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
testing period
COSMO-SREPS was running regularly during the MAP D-PHASE DOP, at 00 UTC
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
HNMS
Verification(06-12/2007)Domain: Greece
Data used: SYNOP data covering Greece
Parameters verified:
o 2m temperatureo Mean Sea Level
Pressure (MSLP)o Precipitation
• Deterministic indeces
• Probabilistic indeces
Verification
JJA 2007
SON 2007
Domain: Alpine region
Data used:COSMO data
Synop data
COSMO I7 analyses
Analysis of:Multi Model ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations
•Z500/ t850/ T2m
•Precipitation
•Deterministic indeces
•Probabilistic indeces
Relationship between error and spread
ARPA-SIM
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
HNMS
Verification(06-12/2007)Domain: Greece
Data used: SYNOP data covering Greece
Parameters verified:
o 2m temperatureo Mean Sea Level
Pressure (MSLP)o Precipitation
• Deterministic indeces
• Probabilistic indeces
Verification
JJA 2007
SON 2007
Domain: Alpine region
Data used:COSMO data
Synop data
COSMO I7 analyses
Analysis of:Multi Model ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations
•Z500/ t850/ T2m
•Precipitation
•Deterministic indeces
•Probabilistic indeces
Relationship between error and spread
ARPA-SIM
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Obs. Network used by ARPA-SIM
SON=54 runsJJA=53 runs
COSMO observations218 synop stations on the
Alpine area
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Greek SYNOP stations
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Some remarks….
Alpine Region and Greece ! Two regions very different but both complex!
Different climatology
few and less intense precip. events in Greece (this is why Dec has been included for Greece)
summer 2007 very very hot in Greece
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
intra-group distance
Z500
CO
SM
O a
naly
sis
JJA 2007 - 50 days SON 2007 - 49 days
Same driving model
Different model parameters
Same model parameters
Different driving model
MultiModel ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
intra-group distance
Z500
CO
SM
O a
naly
sis
JJA 2007 - 50 days SON 2007 - 49 days
Same driving model
Different model parameters
Same model parameters
Different driving model
MultiModel ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbationsT8
50 C
OSM
O a
naly
sis
C
Different driving models play the major role
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
intra-group distance
2mT Northern Italy
JJA 2007 - 50 days
SON 2007 - 49 days
MultiModel ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations
Same model parameters
Different driving model
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
As regards 2mT no big impact of physics parameter perturbations over Greece
MultiModel ICs/BCs vs different Physics Parameter perturbations
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
SYNOP over D-PHASE area - Nearest grid point
JJA07 SON07
2m T - relationship between error and spread
COSMO I7 analysis
error vs spread Underdispersive
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
spread/skill relationship
2mT Alpine area (synop stations)
+12h +24h +36h
+48h +60h +72h
Reasonable even if Underdispersive
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
spread/skill relationship
t850 Alpine area (COSMO analyses)
Improvement with the time range
+12h +24h +36h
+48h +60h +72h
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
-0.80
-0.40
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
2.00
2.40
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72
forecast range (h)
bia
s (K
)
m1
m2
m3
m4
m5
m6
m7
m8
m9
m10
m11
m12
m13
m14
m15
m16
2m temperature - BIASJJA07
Northern Italy
ecmwfgmencepukmo
T2m: BIAS
-2.5-2
-1.5-1
-0.50
0.51
1.52
2.5
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72Forecast time
12345678
910111213141516avg
IFS GME NCEP UKMO
All periodGreece
The two regions are very
different!!
p4
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
2m Temperature by months
• Underestimation of summer temperatures June 2007 was exceptionally warm
with strong heat waves
The maximum temperature in Athens reached 46.2 ºC !
• October to December RMSE statistically acceptable.
• Different pattern between summer and autumn/winter months
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
BIA
S
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
RM
SE
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Strong dependency on the season !
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
2m Temperature by months
• Underestimation of summer temperatures June 2007 was exceptionally warm
with strong heat waves
The maximum temperature in Athens reached 46.2 ºC !
• October to December RMSE statistically acceptable.
• Different pattern between summer and autumn/winter months
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
BIA
S
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
RM
SE
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Strong dependency on the season !
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
2m Temperature By Member
• Underestimation of Temperature.
• It seems that GME driven members have better skill than the others.
T2m: RMSE
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
12345678910111213141516avg
IFS GME NCEP UKMO
T2m: BIAS
-2.5-2
-1.5-1
-0.50
0.51
1.52
2.5
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72Forecast time
12345678
910111213141516avg
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
GME seems to give a better performance regarding t2m (near surface parameter)
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
-0.80
-0.40
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
2.00
2.40
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72
forecast range (h)
bia
s (K
)
m1
m2
m3
m4
m5
m6
m7
m8
m9
m10
m11
m12
m13
m14
m15
m16
2m temperature - BIAS
Synop observations over Alpine area
Nearest grid point – lsm + altitude correction
JJA07
ecmwfgmencepukmo
p4
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
2m temperature - MAE
Synop observations over Alpine area
Nearest grid point – lsm + altitude correction
JJA07
2.60
3.00
3.40
3.80
4.20
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72
forecast range (h)
mae
(K
)
m1
m2
m3
m4
m5
m6
m7
m8
m9
m10
m11
m12
m13
m14
m15
m16
ecmwfgmencepukmo
p4
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
2m temperature - BIAS
Synop observations over Alpine area
Nearest grid point – lsm + altitude correction
SON07
-3.20
-2.80
-2.40
-2.00
-1.60
-1.20
-0.80
-0.40
0.00
0.40
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72
forecast range (h)
bia
s (K
)
m1
m2
m3
m4
m5
m6
m7
m8
m9
m10
m11
m12
m13
m14
m15
m16ecmwfgmencepukmo
p4
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
2m temperature - MAE
Synop observations over Alpine area
Nearest grid point – lsm + altitude correction
SON07
2.60
3.00
3.40
3.80
4.20
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72
forecast range (h)
mae
(K
)
m1
m2
m3
m4
m5
m6
m7
m8
m9
m10
m11
m12
m13
m14
m15
m16
ecmwfgmencepukmo
p4
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
TP 24h – ave 0.5x0.5 JJA07
+30h
noss 1400 700 400 150 50
IT + CH
+54h
Same driving models
Same driving models
Same perturbation
Big impact of multi model BCs!!!!!!!
Looking at the right column it is evident that even with few members the skill does not decrease too much when the driving models are different.
Same perturbation
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
TP 24h – ave 0.5x0.5 JJA07
+30h
noss 1400 700 400 150 50
IT + CH
+54h
Same driving models
Same driving models
Same perturbation
Big impact of multi model BCs!!!!!!!
Looking at the right column it is evident that even with few members the skill does not decrease too much when the driving models are different.
Same perturbation
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
TP 24h – ave 0.5x0.5
noss 800 500 300 100 50
SON07
+30h
IT + CH
+54h
Same driving model
Same driving model
Same perturbation
Same perturbation
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
June-December 200748hr pred
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 10 20 30 40
Threshold (mm/24hr)
RO
C
All mbs
Tdtk1
KF1
Tdtk2
Tdtk3
June-December 200748hr pred
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 10 20 30 40
Threshold (mm/24hr)
RO
C
All mbs
IFS
GME
NCEP
UKMO
Same driving model Same Phys. Pert.
June-December 200748hr pred
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0 10 20 30 40
Threshold (mm/24hr)
BS
S
All mbs
IFS
GME
NCEP
UKMO
June-December 200748hr pred
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 10 20 30 40
Threshold (mm/24hr)
BS
S
All mbs
Tdtk1
KF1
Tdtk2
Tdtk3
Greece
KF better but!!
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
POD & FAR plots (6hr acc prec- Greece)Same driving model Same Phys. Pert.
POD: >0.1mm
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
12345678910111213141516
POD: >0.1mm
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
12345678910111213141516
FAR: >0.1mm
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
12345678910111213141516
FAR: >0.1mm
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Forecast time
12345678910111213141516
IFS GME NCEP UKMO
Tiedtke1Kain-Fritsch1Tiedtke2Tiedtke3
Greece
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Deterministic scores – ave 0.5 x 0.5 IT
pert
1mm/24h
5mm/24h
10mm/24h
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008 JJA07 +30
h
IT
IT + CH
Same driving model
Same perturbation
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Test of more parameter perturbations (same father)
16 LM runs at 10 km
P1: control (ope)
P2: conv. scheme (KF)
P3: parameter 1
P4: parameter 2
P5: …
IFS – ECMWF global
SON 07
On the impact of varying the value of a set of COSMO model
parameters for short-range predictions.
C. Marsigli, A. Montani, and T. Paccagnella
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
T2m deterministic scores – npo IT
-2.40
-2.00
-1.60
-1.20
-0.80
-0.40
0.00
0.40
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
forecast range (h)
bia
s (K
)
-2.40
-2.00
-1.60
-1.20
-0.80
-0.40
0.00
0.40
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
m1
m2
m3
m4
m5
m6
m7
m8
m9
m10
m11
m12
m13
m14
m15
m16
ctrl
KFtur_len=150tur_len=1000pat_len=10000rat_sea=1rat_sea=60qc0=0.001crsmin=50crsmin=200c_soil=0c_soil=2c_lnd=1c_lnd=10rlam_heat=0.1rlam_heat=10
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
forecast range (h)
mae
(K
)
T2m deterministic scores – npo IT
-2.40
-2.00
-1.60
-1.20
-0.80
-0.40
0.00
0.40
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
m1
m2
m3
m4
m5
m6
m7
m8
m9
m10
m11
m12
m13
m14
m15
m16
ctrl
KFtur_len=150tur_len=1000pat_len=10000rat_sea=1rat_sea=60qc0=0.001crsmin=50crsmin=200-2.40
-2.00
-1.60
-1.20
-0.80
-0.40
0.00
0.40
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
m1
m2
m3
m4
m5
m6
m7
m8
m9
m10
m11
m12
m13
m14
m15
m16
c_soil=0c_soil=2c_lnd=1c_lnd=10rlam_heat=0.1rlam_heat=10
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Conclusions
Alpine Region and Greece ! Two regions very different but both complex!
Different climatology
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Conclusions (Temperature and geopotential)
Perturbations -Multi Model ICs/BCs & Perturbations on Ph. Params:
the perturbing of model parameters produce a detectable spread among members
but
the use of different driving models seems to dominate with respect to physics parameter perturbations as regards the contribution to the spread; these contributions are different in the two seasons (2mT)
As regards the performance of the different driving models there is a strong dependence on forecast range, season, verification area
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Perturbations -Multi Model ICs/BCs & Perturbations on Ph. Params:
the perturbing of model parameters produce a detectable spread among members
but
the use of different driving models seems to dominate with respect to physics parameter perturbations as regards the contribution to the spread
As regards the performance of the different driving models there is a strong dependence on forecast range, season, verification area
Conclusions (Temperature and geopotential)
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
spread-skill relationship:
a correlation between error and spread exists, but the
system is under-dispersive -> a more comprehensive representation of model error will improve spread
Conclusions (Temperature and geopotential)
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Conclusions (precipitation)
•the use of different driving models seems to dominate with respect to physics parameter perturbations as regards the contribution to the spread
•It is not evident a systematic relationship between the quality of the precipitation forecast and ICs/BCs provided by a specific global model
•Perturbations of the convective schemes are more important than the perturbations of the particular parameters for turbulent and length scales used
•It seems that the members with Kain-Fritsch convective scheme have better resolution they overestimate precipitation more than Tiedtke scheme
•Precipitation amount is generally overestimated
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
On-going activities and future plans
continue the analysis over the DOP MAP D-PHASE :
statistical analysis of the system
comparison with the other available mesoscale ensemble systems (D-PHASE activity)
verification carried out by HNMS
introduce the new parameter perturbations (after an analysis of their impact also in summer)
analyse the impact of adding soil perturbations
consens
SREPS Priority Project COSMO General Meeting Cracov 2008
Last FTEs of Chiara were used for this
TASK
ROMEO