SPUR releases major report on climate adaptation: Climate Change Hits Home

8/6/2019 SPUR releases major report on climate adaptation: Climate Change Hits Home

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RepoRt 05/201

Climate changehits home

Adaptation strategies or the San Francisco Bay Area


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2 SPUR Report > May 2011

Adapting to climate change in the Bay Area

Athugh we ust d everthig i ur pwer t

sw dw ciate chage, it is t ate t prevet it

etire. A eves gveret, ad especia ca

gverets, ust begi preparig r ad buidig

resiiece t the eects ciate chage, a area

paig kw as ciate chage adaptati.

I this SPUR reprt, we surve the ike ipacts

ciate chage i the Sa Fracisc Ba Area, icudig

extree weather, sea eve rise ad re.

We reced re tha 30 strategies r ca ad

regia agecies t begi iiizig the regis

vuerabiities t these g-ter but ptetia

catastrphic eects.

This report was made possible by the generous support o theSan Francisco Foundation, the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund,and a Community Action Grant rom the Urban Land Institute.

3 Introduction

4 Principles o climate adaptation

7 Climate change impacts in the Bay Are

10 Vulnerable areas and adaptation strate11 Pubic saet ad heath

Heat

Air quait

High vuerabe ppuatis

SPURs recedatis

14 Trasprtati

Grud trasprtati

Airprts

Prts

SPURs recedatis

16 Ecsstes ad bidiversit

Terrestria ad watershed ecsstes

Estuarie ecsstes

SPURs recedatis

20 Eerg

Eectric-grid reiabiit

Icreases i eerg dead

Hdreectricit

Sea eve rise ad eerg irastructure

SPURs Recedatis

22 Water aageet

SPURs recedatis

25 Sea eve rise

Desig strategies r sea eve rise

Fiacig ad gverace

SPURs recedatis

29 Conclusion

32 Plan o action: SPURs recommendatio


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SPUR Report > May

We have kw abut the peris ciate chage r re tha tw decades. But gba

erts t sw it dw b reducig greehuse-gas eissis have arge aied. Eve

where ajr erts are vig rward, such as Cairias Asseb Bi 32, paed

reductis wi t eve begi r 10 ears, ad the represet a racti wrd

eissis. I the eatie, the ccetrati atspheric greehuse gases has

ctiued t rise at a icreasig rate.

Eve i we are sehw abe t stp prducig greehuse gases trrw, the high

ccetrati carb dixide aread i the atsphere r histric eississice

we bega burig ssi ues r eerg i the 19th ceturwi cause the ciate t

ctiue t chage (Figure 1). As a resut we ust t itesi ur erts t reduce

ciate chage bth w ad i the uture, but we as ust prepare r ad adapt t its

ievitabe eects. These tw paig erts are reerred t, respective, as ciate chage

itigati ad ciate chage adaptati.

I SPURs 2009 reprt Critica Cig, we expred the chaege itigati at the ca

eve, recedig a set carb-reducti strategies r the Cit Sa Fracisc,

raked i pririt b greatest ipact ad east cst.1

I this reprt, SPUR addresses hw we shud adapt t ciate chage i the Ba Area,

icudig which ts ad strategies wi ake us re resiiet t its st severe ipacts,

icudig extree weather ad sea eve rise.2

This report was reviewed,debated and adopted as ocialSPUR policy by the Board oDirectors on February 16, 2011.spur.org/adaptation

SPUR sta: Laura TamSPUR interns:Timothea Tway,Elizabeth Antin

SPUR blue ribbon task orce:

Andy Barnes, David Behar, BradBenson, Claire Bonham-Carter,Xantha Bruso, Peter Drekmeier,Ted Droettboom, Steve Goldbeck,Noah Goldstein, Amy Hutzel,Michelle Jesperson, LaurieJohnson, Doug Kimsey, KenKirkey, David Lewis, JacintaMcCann, Paul Okamoto, EmilyPimentel, Julian Potter, BruceRiordan, Rebecca Rosen,Miriam Rotkin-Ellman, Bry Sarte,Will Travis, Margaret Williams,Abby Young

SPUR

654 Mission StreetSan Francisco, CA 94105tel. [email protected]

/ introduction /

Climate change hits homeAdaptati strategies r the

Sa Fracisc Ba Area

coverimage:fickruserSP8254


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Pricipes ciateadaptatiSeveral key principles about climate adaptation planning are true or

the Bay Area and beyond. Some o them represent a new way o

doing planning altogethermaking decisions based on predictableevents in the uture, and not at specied points in time.

1. The more mitigation we do now, the less adaptation we may

have to do in the uture, because climate impacts could be less

severe. Climate change mitigation and adaptation are related. Without

any mitigation, adaptation will be more dicult and more expensive,

and more people are likely to suer. Some policies or planning

actions can support both goals, such as restoring tidal wetlands,

which both sequester carbon (mitigation) and act as a buer against

sea level r ise (adaptation). Some strategies, however, can pit these

goals against each other: Desalination o seawater, or example, is

an adaptation strategy or drought that is energy-intensive, usually

producing signicant levels o greenhouse-gas emissions. In selecting

mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is important to consider

tradeos and try to achieve both ends i possible.

2. Mitigation is much less expensive than adaptation. Mitigation to

a stable level o atmospheric carbon would cost about 1 percent o

global GDP by 2050, while unmitigated climate impacts would cost

between 5 and 20 percent o global GDP.3 In Caliornia, cli

mitigation through Assembly Bill 32 is projected to have a n

economic impact, increasing gross state product, personal in

(including $4 billion in uel savings by 2020) and job creatio

But i no actions are taken, climate change-related damage a

Caliornia could cost anywhere rom $7 billion to $46 billion

O the states estimated $4 trillion in real estate assets, more

$2.5 trillion will be exposed to increasing risk rom extreme events, sea level rise and wildres.4

3. Mitigation should happen globally. Because it is the leas

expensive way to prevent suering, mitigation is the rst and

important policy tool or managing climate change. Ideally, t

mitigation policy is implemented at an international or nation

where the scope o emissions is much broader. Mitigation st

that could signicantly reduce global carbon emissions inclu

switching to solar and wind energy; biouels; energy, heating

transportation eciency; carbon capture and storage; orestr

nuclear electricity. SPURs 2009 policy paper Critical Cooli

estimates the benets and costs o 42 policies that the City Francisco could use to meet its own greenhouse-gas reducti

(which are more stringent than the State o Caliornias). Our

local strategies or mitigation include ecient land use plann

greater recycling and composting, reducing vehicle miles tra

a variety o ways, and investing in building eciency and de

the smart grid.

Source:AdaptedromB

CDCsLiving

withaRisingBay,2009.Base

dondata

romI

PCC.

Even i we succeed at reducing our emissions, it will take centuries or the climateand the eects o

global warming and sea level riseto stabilize.

Figure 1: How long will it take our climate to stabilize?

Sea level rise due to icemelting: several millennia

Sea level rise due tothermal expansion:centuries to millennia

Temperature:a ew centuries

CO2 in atmosphere:100 to 300 years

Magnitude

Time to stabilize

Best case scenario:

CO2 emissions peak

in next 100 years

Today 100 years 1000 years


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SPUR Report > May

4. Adaptation must happen locally. Adaptation is oten implemented

ocally because the impacts o climate change are geographically

variable, and vulnerabilities to these impacts are more variable still.

Because o the local knowledge necessary to understand risks and

educe vulnerabilities, we must plan adaptation actions airly close to

home. The process o adaptation planning identies a set o actions

o decrease a systems vulnerability, or increase its resilience, to the

mpacts o climate change. It can be plannedthe essence o thispaperor ad hoc, the latter most likely to occur ater an extreme

event or disaster.

The main tool o adaptation planning is the vulnerability assessment,

an evaluation o a systems risk compared to its adaptive capacity, or

ability to cope with climate change. Vulnerability assessments reveal

where and which actions are needed to improve resilience to risk

actors. They can be geographic or systemic in nature. For example,

a vulnerability assessment or a city could include mapping uture

sea level rise and areas at risk o urban heat-island eects alongside

demographic inormation to reveal which populations may be most

exposed to fooding or extreme heat. A vulnerability assessment ora wastewater system might model the systems perormance under

a range o predicted uture storm intensities and sea levels, to see

whether inrastructure needs to be protected or moved and where

urban fooding is most likely to occur. Vulnerability assessments can

be used to set priories or early, medium and long-term actions, and

o develop trigger points or decision-making in the uture.

5. Adaptation strategies should be implemented according to

uture conditions, regular assessment and recalibration. This

process, called adaptive management, is necessary because there is

great uncertainty about how ast the climate is changing and when its

predicted eects may occur. For example, sea levels in San Francisco

Bay are predicted to rise about 16 inches by 2050, but sea level risepredictions are constantly being revisedusually upwardby the

nternational scientic community. Although it is possible that sea

evels may not increase 16 inches by mid-century, it is even more

ikely that we will see that much sea level rise 10 or 15 years sooner.

t is important to monitor changing conditions to determine when to

ake the prescribed course o action developed through vulnerability

assessment. Without this, we may adopt the wrong adaptation

strategy, pay too much or oneor pay too little.

6. Some adaptation strategies have benets that can be realized

oday. Some adaptation planning actions can be adopted right away

and may be things we are working on already to achieve other policygoals. Two examples o these no-regrets adaptation strategies

nclude energy eciency and water conservation, both activities

hat are valuable today and may be even more valuable under uture

climate change. In a way, agencies and utilities working in these

areas are doing climate adaptation planning already. But the severity

and trajectory o climate change will require thorough examination

o goals, targets and programs in these areas to ensure that they are

eective in the uture under changed conditions.

Paig i ucertait:the ccept adaptiveaageet

Natural-resource managers have long used adaptive managemto plan or uncertainty in the environment. It is an iterative pro

in which managers and scientists work together to consider

management strategies, predict their outcomes, implement act

monitor conditions and adjust uture actions accordingly.5 Alth

it has typically been used in biological conservation and land

management, it is a strategy that can be used by local governm

working on climate change adaptation. Local governments and

regional agencies will need to pay attention to the latest scienc

climate changes, monitor local conditions and implement strat

to achieve desired outcomes o food protection, public health

protection and more.

One example o adaptive management in the Bay Area is the

South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project. The projects goal is

to restore and enhance more than 15,000 acres o wetlands

in south San Francisco Bay, while providing public access and

food management services.6 Due to uncertainties including th

degree o sea level rise in the Bay, sediment supply, bird and o

species response to restoration activities, water quality and m

the management team parsed the project into phases that cou

be implemented or adjusted according to ongoing monitoring.

project also has several alternative scenarios that can be adopt

achieve its key goals, depending on how the variables change

time.

The adaptive-management approach is one that can be used b

land managers, planners and others to outline the expected im

o climate change, create scenarios and take action in the ace

uncertainty. Ongoing monitoring and evaluation can then deter

when trigger points are reached, signaling it is time to chang

approach, which might mean implementing a planned activity

launching a new strategy.


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The State o Caliornia has been very proactive about planni

climate change, unding research on climate impacts, creatin

cross-agency Caliornia Climate Adaptation Strategy7 and pro

strategies or state agencies to manage against climate threa

sidebar: State and regional climate planning in brie.) Altho

this guidance is extremely important, there has been less dir

provided to local governments, which will probably be the le

agencies or vulnerability assessment and planning going orto the geographic and local nature o climate risks. Without

guidance that local governments can begin using today to es

uture trigger points, they risk utilizing more ad-hoc approa

even emergency responses. Such approaches are not only m

but they are usually much more expensive and do not build

resilience.

This SPUR report describes the expected impacts o climate

in the Bay Area and recommends planning strategies or loc

governments and other agencies to adapt to these threats. T

this report, we convened a climate change adaptation task o

May 2009 that met or nine months and included dierent aand utility stakeholders in San Francisco and the Bay Area,

with engineering, planning and environmental experts. We a

conducted ocused workshops throughout 2010 to vet strate

recommendations. This report rst presents an overview o t

climate threats to our region, and then it ollows with vulnera

concerns and recommended strategies or local government

in six areas: public saety and health, transportation, energy

ecosystems and biodiversity, water management and sea lev

State ad regia ciatepaig i brieThe State o Caliornia has been a nationwide leader in developing

comprehensive climate change policy covering both mitigation and

adaptation. In 2006, the Caliornia Legislature passed the GlobalWarming Solutions Act, Assembly Bill 32, capping statewide

emissions at 1990 levels by 2020. Current implementation

includes: regulation through the Caliornia Air Resources Board;

companion legislation such as Senate Bill 375, which will reduce

transportation emissions through regional planning; and executive

orders o the governor.

On the adaptation side, state agencies have unded research

and statewide and regional vulnerability assessments. And in

2009, the state prepared the cross-agency Caliornia Climate

Adaptation Strategy,8 one o the most proactive adaptation-

planning strategies in the world. The strategy used a collaborative

approach to develop hundreds o near-term and long-term actions

to improve Caliornias resilience to climate change in seven key

sectors: public health, biodiversity and habitat, oceans and coastal

resources, water supply, agriculture, orestry, and transportation

and energy inrastructure. Although the strategy is comprehensive,

it does not identiy sources o unding to implement the actions

it recommends. Nevertheless, state agencies, coordinated by the

Caliornia Resources Agency, have since taken numerous actions

to begin implementing the Adaptation Strategy. A progress report

released in late 2010 can be ound at http://www.climatechange.

ca.gov/adaptation.

Two state-unded reports are especially relevant to the BayArea: the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development

Commissions (BCDC) Living with a Rising Bay (2009),9 a

vulnerability assessment o sea level rise in San Francisco Bay,

and the Pacic Institutes The Impacts o Sea Level Rise on

the Caliornia Coast (2009).10 These reports have signicantly

raised public awareness about the eects o climate change and

strategies we can use to improve Caliornias resilience.

In 2010, the state also created the Cal-Adapt tool to visually

display the climate change risks o wildre, sea level rise,

snowpack projections and other climate data in ne-grained

Google Earth maps covering all o Caliornia. The highest-

resolution maps project climate data or an area o about 50

square miles (about the size o San Francisco). Explore the Cal-

Adapt website at http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/visualization/

index.html



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SPUR Report > May

Ciate chage ipacts i theSa Fracisc Ba Area


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Global warming is caused by the retention o extra heat in the

atmosphere rom increasing concentrations o carbon dioxide and

other greenhouse gases. Some o this extra heat is absorbed by

the oceans, causing them to warm up and expand. The physical

maniestations o these changes in the climate are expected to be:

1. Higher temperatures and heat waves

2. Water uncertainty: drought, wildre, extreme storms and fooding3. Sea level rise

In trying to characterize the impacts o climate change as specically

to the Bay Area as possible, SPUR ound that studies and data were

not always available at the regional scale. However, because the state

has done so much research to predict impacts in Caliornia, we could

nd reliable inormation about state and national trends that we can

also expect to occur more locally.

1. Higher teperatures

ad heat wavesTemperature changes are the primary marker o climate change, and

they are also the key driver o changes in other natural systems such

as sea levels and hydrologic cycles. However, global temperature

rise is not expected to occur uniormly. There are two ways to predict

uture temperatures in any one place: local trend analysis and

downscaling global-scale climate models. Trend analysis requires

detailed and lengthy past records o temperature (which the Bay

Area has), while global climate models have not been developed

at regional or local scales but may be better at predicting uture

conditions, which are likely to be di erent than those o the past. In

the Bay Area, analysis o historical temperature records rom localweather stations since 1950 has shown either no statistical warming

or a slight warming o mean temperature.11 In the uture, according

to downscaled global climate models, the general trend or Caliornia

is orecast to be a minimum rise o 2 degrees Celsius over the next

100 years. The Caliornia Adaptation Strategy projects a rise o 2 to

5 degrees Celsius (4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, the higher

end o the range corresponding to higher-emission world development

scenarios modeled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change.

This means that statewide average temperatures are expected

to increase across Caliornia, with more pronounced increasesin the summer months and nighttime temperatures. Heat waves

are expected to increase in requency, with individual heat waves

becoming longer and extending over a larger area, making them more

likely to encompass multiple population centers in Caliornia at the

same time. 12 Inland areas are likely to experience more warming

than coastal regions. In the Bay Area, the eastern and southern

portions o the region are likely to see more pronounced warming

than the coastal, northern and central Bay regions.

Increased temperatures will aect human health, public hea

systems and the energy grid. There will be an increase in th

number o extreme heat daysdays that exceed the region

percentile average temperature.13 From a 20th-century base

an average 12 extreme heat days per year in San Francisco,

expect to see 20 such days annually through 2035, betwee

46 extreme heat days annually by mid-century and 70 to 94

by the end o the centuryan eightold increase rom today.will increase the likelihood o heat-related illness and deaths

that will all disproportionately on vulnerable communities, e

the poor, the elderly and young children.15

Increased annual temperatures will also lead to shits in the

distribution and abundance o plant and animal species.16 T

will lead to an overall loss o biodiversity across the state bu

to increases within specic areas, such as in the coastal ran

with important implications or conservation. Non-native and

species, disease and pests are expected to increase, negativ

aecting the regions native fora and auna. Many species a

expected to shit to the north and to higher elevations as a rerom hotter and drier conditions.17

2. Water ucertait:drughts, widre, extreestrs ad fdigPrecipitation patterns that aect most o Caliornias water su

are likely to change because o global warming. The Bay Are

resh and salt water in unusual quantities, in unusual places

unusual times. Generally, toward the end o the century we ato experience more prolonged shortages in reshwater suppl

well as extreme weather that could increase local and urban

rom severe storms. However, we are not expected to experi

signicant seasonal shits in our Mediterranean climate o w

and hot, dry summers.18

With respect to surace water, the Sierra snowpack that prov

natural water storage or reshwater supplyessential or ma

Bay Area water agenciesis likely to melt earlier and more

Longer and drier droughts are predicted beore the end o th

leading to increasing requency and magnitude o water shor

and exacerbating confict over an already stretched resource

the state, more precipitation will all as rain instead o snow,

to water-storage challenges in the dry season. Higher air tem

will increase water uptake by plants, increase evaporation an

decrease soil moisture, resulting in less water fowing into re

Higher temperatures will also increase water demand across

sectors: domestic, agricultural, commercial and industrial. H

temperatures could decrease water quality, especially in lake

reservoirs, which could endanger aquatic animals such as co

sh, insects and crustaceans.


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SPUR Report > May

As droughts are expected to increase in requencydue to the dry

season starting earlier and ending laterwildres are expected to

ncrease in both requency and intensity.

Groundwater basins used or water supply are threatened with

decreased replenishment rom lowered precipitation and increased

evaporation. They are also at risk o increasing extraction to meet

growing supply needs. For coastal reshwater aquiers, paradoxically,his may increase their vulnerability to saltwater intrusion rom sea

evel rise. Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquiers would make

some o the reshwater unusable without more intensive treatment.

A combination o increased storm intensity and saltwater intrusion

nto the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could increase the risk or

food-caused levee ailures, which potentially could destroy low-lying

areas and contaminate reshwater supplies stored and conveyed in

he Delta.

With respect to storm water and wastewater, heavier downpours

and increased runo could contribute to sewer overfows in the

egions wastewater systems. Urban fooding rom extreme stormscould threaten public health and saety, damage property and impair

coastal water qualitythreatening ecosystems, recreational use and

shellsh sheries.

There are 22 wastewater treatment plants on the Bay Areas shoreline

hat are vulnerable to a 55-inch rise in sea level, the upper end o

projections by 2100. Many o these acilities today lack the capacity

o ully handle storm fows and requently spill sewage into the Bay.

Many treatment plants rely on gravity to discharge treated water

o the Bay.19 As Bay water levels rise, this mechanism could ail

and signicantly aect acility operations. Saltwater intrusion into

reatment acilities will alter the biotic conditions necessary or the

breakdown o waste material.

3. Sea eve riseSPUR has already written extensively on how sea level rise occurs

and how it will be experienced in the Bay Area.20 Sea level rise

occurs because o two natural processes that have been occurring

since the last ice age ended approximately 10,000 years ago. One

process, thermal expansion o the oceans, reers to the oceans

ncreasing in volume as they absorb atmospheric and land-generated

heat, pushing them higher up onto shore. The second process is

he melting o land-based ice, such as glaciers and ice sheets thatoccupy vast areas o Greenland and Antarctica.

n the past 10 to 15 years, the rate o global sea level rise has

ncreased by about 50 percent and is now averaging 3 millimeters

per year. Human-induced global warming is a major contributor to

his accelerated rise. Although this rate o increase may have been

matched or even exceeded in past interglacial periodsthe intervals

o warmer temperatures between ice ages that occur every 20,000

to 40,000 yearsdierent global conditions existed then. It is no

widely accepted that the worlds coastlines and coastal cities will

be aced with seas that are rising aster than ever experienced. In

Caliornia, we are likely to experience a sea level rise o about 16

inches by 2050 and about 55 inches by 2100and much more

ater that.21 These estimates are based on ranges that correspon

several global greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios. In the highes

emission scenario, the range o estimated end-o-century sea leverise is between 43 and 69 inches.22

There is deep uncertainty surrounding the eedback loops that co

be set o by the rapid melting o large ice sheets. But the latest

measurements o global warming emissions and atmospheric car

dioxide concentrations indicate that the uncertainty is mainly on t

upper boundary. That is, things may be worse than anticipated b

are unlikely to be better, so an estimate o 55 inches by 2100 ma

be conservative. To limit this change, emissions reductions must

be rapid and extensive, deeper even than what is necessary to lim

world temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius, a widely agree

upon world policy goal to prevent catastrophic climate change.23

Sea level rise in the region will be experienced at greater or lesse

levels depending on land subsidence or tectonic uplit. Some

communities o the South Bay, which heavily extracted groundwa

up through the 1960s, have sunk below todays sea level by as m

as 13 eet. Parts o the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta that have

been heavily channelized, diked, eroded and oxidized are now 25

below sea level. Areas that are sinking or losing land area or wetl

to erosion will experience the impacts o sea level r ise sooner and

perhaps with greater intensity.

Most o the near-term damage that sea level rise is expected to

infict on developed areas is rom storm conditions that occur at tsame time as high tides. Storms cause extreme lows in air pressu

allowing the sea level to instantaneously rise above predicted tide

Storms also increase winds, especially onshore winds, that cause

bigger, more erosive waves. Finally, they bring rain, which increas

water volume in creeks and rivers. Approximately 40 percent o

Caliornias land drains to San Francisco Bay, which means that s

foods will last longer here than in higher-elevation regions. Unde

existing conditions, the combination o high tides, storm surges a

river fooding can raise water levels in the Delta by 51 inches or

as long as a day.24 As sea levels rise, low-lying areas protected b

already ragile levees will ace even greater risk.


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Public saety and health

Heat

Air quality

Highly vulnerable populations

SPURs recommendations

Transportation

Ground transportation

Airports

Ports

SPURs recommendationsEcosystems and biodiversity

Terrestrial and watershed ecosystems

Estuarine ecosystems


Energy

Electric-grid reliability

Increases in energy demand

Hydroelectricity

Sea level rise and energy inrastructure


Water management


Sea level rise

Design strategies or sea level riseFinancing and governance


Vuerabe areas ad adaptatistrategies



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SPUR Report > May

SPURs task orce considered how three primary

physical climate changesincreased heat, water

uncertainty and sea level risewill aect various

areas o planning in our region and evaluated

strategies to adapt to them. In this section we discuss

specic regional vulnerability concerns together withrecommendations or planning or six areas: public

saety and health, transportation, energy, ecosystems

and biodiversity, water management and sea level rise.

PUBlIC SAFETy AnDHEAlTHPublic saety and health are vulnerable to climate change in several

ways. Increases in extreme heat, particularly during heat waves,

could kill more people than all other climate change impacts

combined.25 Warmer days also worsen air quality, create urban heat

slands and can increase peoples risk to vector-borne and inectious

diseases such as West Nile virus and Lyme disease. Public saety

and health could also be compromised by storm-related fooding in

esidential areas and by wildre, both because o its direct threat

at the urban-wildland interace and because it signicantly impairs

egional air quality.

Heat

While the Bay Area may not experience the same severity orrequency o extreme heat days as other parts o southern and central

Caliornia, by midcentury we may see three to our times as many

extreme heat days as we do today and six to eight times as many by

2100.26 In San Francisco, rom a 20th-century average o 12 days

per year exceeding 81 degrees Fahrenheit, we could have 70 to 94

days exceeding this temperature by 2070 to 2099.

The paradox o hot weather in milder climates, such as along the

Caliornia coast, is that people are much less prepared or and

acclimatized to it. In Caliornias 2006 heat wave, rates o emerge

department visitation and hospitalization were ar greater in coast

counties, including San Francisco, than the state average, althoug

some parts o the state were objectively hotter and suered more

heat-related deaths.27 Only about 11 percent o housing units in

San Francisco metropolitan area have access to air conditioning.2

Although some San Franciscans might welcome a ew more warmsummer days, an important part o adaptation planning will be

preparing or region-wide heat emergencies that could otherwise

overwhelm hospitals and health providers. Heat waves that are

longer and that occur earlier in the season will increase our regio

vulnerability to this aspect o climate change. San Francisco and

Alameda counties contain eight o the 13 census tracts most

vulnerable to heat in the entire United States.29

Urbanized areas around the Bay may be especially vulnerable to

phenomenon known as urban heat island: where heavily urban

areas can become and remain signicantly warmer than nearby a

because o the prevalence o heat-retaining materials like concretand asphalt. Urban heat islands may be 5 to 8 degrees warmer

than surrounding areas experiencing the same weather systems.

Impervious ground and roo suraces limit natural cooling that tak

place when plants and soil release water vapor into the air, a pro

compounded by lack o shade. They also release heat more slow

night, so when extreme heat occurs, cities have more trouble coo

o than other places do. This increases energy demand or coolin

and impacts health: Heat waves are more dangerous or people w

the body cannot cool o at night.

Heat-related illness and death are considered entirely preventable

appropriate strategies are taken by residents, planners and health

providers.30

Air quaitClimate and air quality are closely related. Direct emissions and th

production o secondary pollutants are temperature-dependent,

while the ability o the atmosphere to remove pollutants through

rain depends on precipitation patterns. The Bay Area does not ha

rain on extreme heat days when ozone pollution is at its worst, so

the region cannot rely on this cleansing eect in the summertim

Transport o pollutants is largely controlled by meteorological act

so air quality eects may be caused by climate-related changesother than temperature increases, such as wind and og pat terns

stagnation or inversions, and altered storm tracks. Air quality is

managed at the regional scale in Caliornia because topography

and regional meteorology are controlling actors, although local

impacts and microclimates may be quite variable. Certain air qua

impacts rom climate change are universally associated with urba

environments, regardless o geographic location, and are relevant

the Bay Area. For example, ground-level ozone, or smog, is create


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primarily on hot sunny days rom the byproducts o motor vehicle

emissions.

Major public health issues related to potential air quality changes

rom climate change (other than heat waves) in the Bay Area include: Increasedexposuretoground-levelozone(smog)

Increasedexposuretosmallparticulatematter(PM2.5),including

black carbon Changesinlevelsofairbornepollens,moldsandotherallergens

Increased exposure to air pollutants including ozone, particulate

matter, pollens and molds can aggravate asthma and respiratory

diseases, and cause premature death in cer tain susceptible groups.

Continued monitoring and evaluation o changes in precipitation,

winds, and oshore and inland conditions will be necessary to create

a regional model o climate change impacts on air quality, and to

make better predictions o climate change impacts on the many

microclimates within the region.

High vuerabe ppuatisWhile every sector o the population will have to deal with fooding,

warmer temperatures, extreme weather, impaired air and oth

economic and health issues, some social groups will be mor

vulnerable than others to these changes. It has been widely

or a long time that on a global scale, the low-income, the ve

young and the elderly are the populations most vulnerable to

change impacts.31 In large part, these groups vulnerability s

rom having less ability to anticipate, cope with and/or recov

disaster.32 Oten, these vulnerable groups reside in locationsheat-related and other pollution is already problematic.

The burdens o higher temperatures and heat waves will all

disproportionately on the poor, the elderly and young childre

with pre-existing health conditions such as asthma, respirato

disease, allergies, diabetes or heart conditions are also more

susceptible to the impacts o climate change due to deteriora

air quality and heat-related illness or death. Lower-income

neighborhoods are also more vulnerable to urban heat-island

because they generally have less tree coverage and more im

ground suraces. People who live alone are especially vulner

heat waves and heat-related illness.

The costs o disaster insurance, healthy ood, water, and hea

and cooling are expected to rise as a result o climate chang

Depending on how much we control greenhouse gas emissions, average temperatures in Caliornia

will be 4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher by 2100 than they are today.

Source:Luers,Cayanetal.,

inOurChanging

Climate:AssessingtheRiskstoCaliornia,areport

romt

heCaliorniaClimateC

ommissionandthe

CalorniaEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,2006.

climatechange.ca.gov.

Figure 2: How will emissions aect uture temperatures?

Degrees

in

Fahrenheit

30-year periods

12

10

8

6

4

2

Scenarios

Higher emissions

Medium-high emissions

Lower emissions

2035206420052034 20652100


13/40

SPUR Report > May

Low-income communities will spend a larger percentage o their

ncome than middle- and high-income communities to prepare and

espond to these impacts. Households without any adult English

speakers are also more vulnerable than others. Low-income and

inguistically isolated people are less likely to be able to a ord

emergency supplies or sucient insurance, or to be able to evacuate

during a disaster, either to cooler places or to escape fooding.

SPURs recedatis rpubic saet ad heath

1. Identiy populations that are vulnerable to specic

climate change threats, and develop countywide

climate-preparedness plans.County health agencies should work with city planning, housing and

emergency-services departments to identiy geographic areas and

populations vulnerable to specic climate change threats, such as sea

evel rise, fooding, re and urban heat islands. Susceptibility actorshat should be part o the vulnerability analysis include housing

quality, transportation access, age, poverty and access to health care.

These analyses should be used to develop countywide climate-

preparedness plans that include actions to reduce vulnerabilities

and target health outreach and emergency measures or susceptible

people.

2. Reduce urban heat-island eect through three

principal no regrets strategies: expanding the urban

orest, promoting white roos and using light-colored

pavement materials.

a. City agencies responsible or urban orestry and street treeswhich could include public works, transportation, and recreation

and park departmentsshould conduct a tree canopy census

and identiy opportunities or better shade-tree coverage in

underserved and intensely urbanized areas. This could be done

through direct plantings in the public right o way, grants to

community tree-planting groups or utility rebates or planting on

private property.

b. Building and public-works departments should evaluate

alternatives and phase in the use o light-colored concrete, paving

and roong materials on municipal properties.

c. Cities should begin to require lighter materials or white roos in

private development by amending existing building codes or new

buildings and major retrots.

3. Build communications and public warning systems

or extreme events such as heat, fooding and poor air

quality.a. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) should

integrate a heat warning/heat watch system into its Spare the Air

program.

b. County health agencies should consider the use o Reverse

911 programsas are used in San Mateo County, where an

emergency-response message robo-calls people in their hom

to alert vulnerable groups to dangerous conditions and provide

saety inormation and resources.

c. City emergency-services departments that are able to reach a

more general population should incorporate heat warnings and

other climate change emergency inormation into public warninsystems, such as AlertSF in San Francisco.

4. Develop robust and comprehensive heat respo

plans.Emergency-services departments, in consultation with county

health agencies, should ensure these plans include: establishmen

o cooling centers; targeted outreach to acilities serving vulnerab

populations such as the elderly and young children; community

engagement and education; and transportation. Emergency-servi

departments should also evaluate the preparedness o health serv

and providers, including community hospitals, or region-wide

emergencies and develop contingency plans.

5. Conduct health surveillance and monitor

environmental conditions or signs o increasing

health risks.The BAAQMD should review regional air-monitoring inormation t

detect any new air quality conditions that could occur rom chang

weather patternsor example, elevated levels o particulate mat

rom more severe wildresand could in turn increase health ris

County health agencies should regularly conduct surveillance o

health conditions to detect and respond to new patterns in diseas

epidemics, such as Lyme disease.

6. Prepare air quality control measures to stabilize

regional air quality i conditions deteriorate.The BAAQMD should develop and prioritize air quality mitigation

measures, including emergency measures, that can be deployed

protect public health i signicant deterioration in regional air qua

occurs in the uture.


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TRAnSPoRTATIonEects related to climate changeincluding higher temperatures,

extreme weather events, changing precipitation patterns, re,

fooding, landslides and sea level risecould aect and disrupt

transportation systems and inrastructure. Thirty-seven percent o

the Bay Areas economic output is made up o manuacturing, reighttransportation and warehouse distribution, and these businesses

spend about $6.6 billion annually on transportation services.33

Potential economic impacts o climate change on transportation

include: lost worker productivity rom delays; impeded and more

expensive movement o goods through ports, airports and rail

systems; and increased costs o repairs and maintenance o

transportation systems. Climate change could also impair the saety

o travel.

The countrys most vulnerable transportation inrastructure is that

which is located on the shoreline, in the path o sea level rise and

storm surges.34 The Bay Area contains about hal o the roads at risk

o inundation in the State o Caliornia and 60 percent o the statesrailroads at risk o a 100-year food event.35

Climate change will aect transportation systems at all levels

including planning, design, construction, operation and maintenance.

Several actors contribute to the susceptibility o transportation

inrastructure to climate change impacts including inrastructure age,

current condition o inrastructure, proximity to other inrastructure

elements and current level o service.36

Grud trasprtatiThe regional ground-transportation network in the Bay Area provides

mobility to residents and serves ports and airports in the region.

Passenger rail service is provided by a variety o operators, including

Amtrak, Altamont Commuter Express, Caltrain, Muni and BART.

Major roads and highways are also essential or the movement o

goods and people in the region. Four primary routes, interstates

880, 580 and 80 and U.S. 101, handle 80 percent o the goods

movement in the region.37 The regions road-and-highway network is

highly congested, and much o the inrastructure is currently

o repair. Room or highways and railroads to relocate is con

by other inrastructure, urbanized areas and sensitive wetlan

Bay itsel.

Approximately 99 miles o the major roads and highways in

Area are vulnerable to inundation and fooding rom a 16-inc

in Bay water levels, and 186 miles o major roads and highware vulnerable to a 55-inch rise. Major roads that could be a

include I-880, U.S. 101, Highway 37, I-680 and Highway 1

Pavement rutting and deterioration may occur with temperat

change, resulting in a greater need or road maintenance. Er

rom heavy storm activity can undermine existing roads and

structures, and eventually increase the cost o maintenance.

along the Berkeley and Albany shoreline is especially vulnera

erosion rom increased storm activity.

The Bay Area regional rail network is made up o more than

miles o track, o which 105 miles are vulnerable to a 55-inc

in sea levels. The network serves both passenger carriers anlines including Union Pacic, Burlington Northern and Santa

Passenger rail serves the major job centers in the region suc

San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, and the ports in the

rely heavily on the reight rail. With the exception o BART a

Muni, these groups use the same tracks, which create conge

problems. Freight demand is expected to increase by 350 pe

over the next 50 years, raising signicant concerns or conge

levels on existing rail corridors.38 The increase in requency,

or duration o warm weather can increase track buckling on

which increases repair and maintenance costs, decreases li

expectancy o inrastructure and causes delays in movement

and people.

AirprtsSan Francisco International Airport and Oakland Internationa

could be signicantly aected by sea level rise because o th

elevation. These airports provide important linkages with tra

partners and serve as hubs or the national and global air-pa

system and air-cargo network. Air cargo is the astest-growin

segment o the goods-movement economy and is orecast to

the next 20 to 30 years. By 2035, the number o air passen

the Bay Area is projected to increase by 67 percent, air carg

percent and business-jet activity by 56 percent.39

O the 7.3 square miles o land Oakland and San Francisco

are built on, 93 percent is vulnerable to storm-surge inundat

with a 55-inch sea level rise. The runways at SFO were buil

landll but will be protected at least through the middle o th

century by a partial seawall and new planned levees in the g

that will signicantly reduce fooding concerns. Subsidence o

runways is currently addressed through a regular program o

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SPUR Report > May

and overlay construction every ve to eight years to maintain Federal

Aviation Administration standards. Beyond mid-century, construction

o levees around the runways or new raised runway elevations may

be required.40 Sections o U.S. 101 and the BART tracks near the

airport are also vulnerable to as little as a 16-inch sea level rise.

Disruptions along these corridors could aect the ability to get

passengers and goods to and rom the airports, resulting in additional

delays and signicant economic impacts. There are also 22 GeneralAviation airports in the Bay Area, many o which are adjacent to the

shoreline, including San Carlos and Palo Alto airports.

PrtsThe ve major ports in the Bay AreaOakland, Richmond, San

Francisco, Redwood City and Beniciaoccupy our square miles o

and and handle more than 25 million metric tons o cargo a year.

The Port o Oakland, the nations ourth-busiest port, employs more

han 28,500 people and generates $3.7 billion annually or the

egional economy. Twenty percent o land within the port areas isvulnerable to a 55-inch sea level rise. There are also several privately

owned ports in the region that are susceptible to climate change. All

Bay Area ports rely heavily on the transportation network to move

cargo and employees to and rom the ports. The major reight rail

connection that links the Oakland and Richmond ports to the rest o

he country is particularly at risk. Signicant fooding is possible along

he eastern side o the Oakland port. Higher seas could reduce bridge

clearance and make ships sit higher in the water, making or less-

ecient port operations and limited mobility o larger ships. These

mpacts, however, are site-specic and require extra study.

SPURs recedatis rtrasprtati

1. Assess regional transportation-system

vulnerabilities to climate impacts.The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) should begin to

nclude in its 25-year Regional Transportation Plans (updated every

our years) a vulnerability assessment o the regions transportation

systems and inrastructure. To collect this inormation, the MTC

should develop and implement a monitoring plan to assess changing

hreats to the transportation system rom climate impacts, especially

sea level rise.

2. Design new transportation projects to be resilient

to end-o-century sea level rise.Caltrans, the MTC and county congestion-management agencies

should require sea level rise to be actored into the design o all

ransportation projects and major repairs in areas at risk o estimated

uture 100-year food elevations, currently about 55 inches above

odays sea levels.

3. Make decisions about what transportation

inrastructure to protect, move, retrot or abandon

according to a clear ramework o priorities or cap

resources.Caltrans, the MTC and county congestion-management agencies

must use a clear set o criteria or prioritizing the use o limited

nancial resources or capital improvements, food protection andretrots o transportation inrastructure at risk rom sea level rise.

Criteria indicating a high priority or investment include assets tha

are:

a. regionally signicant or mobility and economic purposes,

possessing among the highest trac volumes in trips per day

(or example, U.S. 101, I-80, and San Francisco and Oakland

international airports)

b. water-dependent and thereore especially vulnerable to fooding

and scour, such as bridges and ports (or example, the Port o

Oakland and the eastern Bay Bridge approach)

c. a major opportunity or ecological restoration by removing,

elevating or relocating the asset (or example, parts o Highway

along the Pacic coast, and the Union Pacic Railroad tracks n

and east o Point Pinole or south o the Dumbarton Bridge)

d. at risk o fooding on one side but that, i retrotted, could serv

as a levee protecting valuable land and development behind it

example, I-80 in Berkeley and the Embarcadero)

Criteria indicating a low priority or investment include assets that

a. already protected rom fooding or will be protected by structur

designed or a larger area o land (or example, BART and Mun

stations in San Francisco)

b. redundant or provide capacity that could reasonably be shited

less risky corridor (or example, trac on Highway 37 in SonomCounty could be shited to Highway 121)

The MTC and other unders highest priorities when considering

capital improvements, including retrots to accommodate uture s

level rise, should be those vulnerable assets that are o signican

regional economic value, are irreplaceable, cannot be relocated a

would not otherwise be protected.

4. Create emergency transportation alternatives o

corridors that may suer rom extreme events or

prolonged closures.41

During extreme events, people may use dierent modes otransportation than usual. These shits may increase congestion o

reduce saety on certain corridors, including on public transit. Th

MTC and county congestion-management agencies should identi

emergency measures that can be taken to maintain mobility and

saety both or short-term impacts o climate change such as extr

weather, and in the event o longer-term closures that may be nee

due to damage or repairs.


16/40



ECoSySTEmS AnDBIoDIVERSITyThe San Francisco Bay region is one o North Americas biodiversity

hot spots, rich with a variety o habitats, a unique geology and

the Bay itsel the second largest estuary in the country. TheBay estuary supports more than 500 wildlie species and is a key

stopping point and overwintering grounds or millions o birds along

the Pacic Flyway. More than hal o North American avian species

and nearly one third o Caliornias plant species are ound in the

lands o the Golden Gate National Recreation Area alone, a national

park that spans 60 miles o coastline and 75,500 acres in three Bay

Area counties. But increased temperatures rom climate change in

the Bay Area could decrease moisture availability, increase requency

o disturbance events and cause a loss o species abundance and

diversity. Fragile, vital wetlands in the Bay and its tributaries are

threatened by sea level rise.

Terrestria ad watershedecsstesThe natural communities, plants and wildlie o the Bay Areas

Mediterranean ecosystem have adapted to a climate with a dened

wet winter season and dry summer season, as well as a range

o temperatures. In some areas, coastal og continues to provide

moisture during the dry summer months. The distinct wet and dry

seasons also contribute to the occurrence o disturbance events

such as re and food. These annual cycles have allowed the natural

communities, plants and wildlie to adapt to high variations in

conditions.

Temperatures in the Bay Area vary along climatic gradients

(temperature as it corresponds to elevation change, and temperature

as it corresponds to proximity to the coast) and a complex terrain,

resulting in a rich natural community mosaic and high species

diversity. Many landscape areas within the Bay region have

temperature ranges that are larger than the projected temperature

increases rom climate change. This may allow many species

throughout the Bay Area to tolerate or adapt to higher tempe

The Bays proximity to the ocean and the continued presenc

along the coast will likely help to mitigate temperature increa

although the impacts to og rom climate change are not wel

understood.

Despite these built-in adaptive actors, changes in tempera

precipitation driven by global warming may adversely impacspecies or ecological communities by aecting moisture ava

Species with limited distribution, restricted range, inability to

or dependence on a nite physical setting such as soil type

lie cycle needs are most vulnerable to changes. The risk o w

and the intensity o re will increase under warmer temperat

less moisture, and this will drive vegetation shits. Tree deat

have already more than doubled over the last ew decades in

growth orests o the western United States, and the most p

cause is warmer temperatures and longer summer drought p

Range shits may occur when a species moves rom one loc

to another or expands its area due to changes in the environIn Caliornia, the combination o increased temperature, cha

precipitation patterns and declining soil moisture is likely to

shit suitable ranges or many species to the nor th and to hig

elevations.43 For example, modeling work to evaluate suitab

conditions or the native blue oak under climate change scen

shows a loss o the species along its current range in the Ea

and an increased range north o the Bay. Narrowly distribute

and natural communities that already have restricted ranges

urban growth or dependence on narrow environmental gradi

particularly vulnerable to temperature changes because they

nowhere to move i their habitat becomes less suitable.44

Coastal areas o Caliornia that are already high in species dare likely to remain so as species migrate coastward to nd s

temperatures and moisture.45 This is an important nding th

help land managers make conservation priorities. However,

emission scenarios o uture climate change indicate overall

in the native biodiversity o Caliornia. Combined, the climate

shits in species range, distribution and abundance could lea

20 to 40 percent loss o native species in Caliornia.46

Rising air temperatures will increase surace-water temperat

in the Bay and in Bay Area rivers, streams and creeks, poten

disrupting the liecycles o cold-water sh like Chinook salmo

watersheds that receive a signicant proportion o winter prein the orm o both rain and snow, the increased proportion

precipitation alling as rain could lead to elevated winter pea

which could scour streambeds and destroy salmon eggs. Rip

ecosystems will be vulnerable to changes in seasonality, drie

conditions and the magnitude o precipitation events.

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SPUR Report > May

Figure 3: Land at risk o sea level rise in the Bay Area

San Rafael

Corte Madera

Mill Valley

Novato

Petaluma

Sonoma

Napa

Fairfield

San Francisco

Pittsburg

Antioch

Vallejo

Martinez

Berkeley

Oakland

San Leandro

Foster City

Alameda

Richmond

Fremont

Hayward

San Jose

Milpitas

Santa Clara

Sunnyvale

Redwood City

Palo Alto

San Mateo

San Bruno

Light blue areas are at risk o fooding with 55 inches o sea rise, the projected level by 2100.

Source:BCDC


18/40



Estuarie ecsstesThe Bay estuarys high biodiversity and ecological values stem rom

the rich wetlands along its shoreline, as well as the riparian habitats

o tributary streams and rivers. These habitats are essential to the

health o the myriad sh and wildlie populations o the region. The

Bay hosts more shorebirds than all other coastal Caliornia estuaries

combined.47 Up to hal the populations o migrating West Coast

waterowl overwinter in the Bay estuary.

In addition to providing habitat or shorebirds and other plant and

animal species, Bay wetlands provide many ecosystem services that

benet people and the regional economy. Wetlands provide critical

food protection by storing surace water and dissipating wave energy,

simultaneously preventing shoreline erosion. Wetlands improve

water quality by ltering nutrients, pollutants and particulates, and

incorporating these elements in biomass or biochemical reactions.

Finally, tidal wetlands sequester carbon in plants and soils, thus

reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and mitigating climate

change.

Tidal marshes are the natural orm o most o the Bay shoreline, buttheir realm has been reduced to about 8 percent o their historic

extent due to lling, armoring and reclamation activities.48 Still, that

8 percent accounts or more than 90 percent o Caliornias remaining

tidal wetlands. Rising sea levels have signicant implications or the

uture persistence o the Bays tidal marsh and wetland areas. Tidal

marshes are sustained vertically by plant growth and sedimentation

that tends to maintain marsh plain elevations within a narrow band

o the high intertidal range even as sea level rises. The long-term

sustainability o a marsh at any given site depends on the re

rates o sea level rise, as well as plant productivity, sedimen

deposition and subsidence, which interact to maintain the m

elevation in a dynamic equilibrium with tide levels. Thus, as

rises, wetlands will migrate landward, assuming there is eno

sediment accretion, plant growth to maintain the wetland an

to move.

Sediment deposition naturally occurs through stream and cre

inputs rom local watersheds, as well as the larger river syste

the Sierra Nevada mountain range, entering the Bay through

Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Research on sediment dyna

o the Bay and Delta indicates that sediment inputs to the B

decreasing. The challenge to the Bays wetlands rom sea lev

two-old: (1) without room or wetlands to migrate landward

level rise, existing wetlands will become submerged and (2)

not enough sediment available in the Bay, tidal wetlands wil

able to maintain vertical elevation as sea level rises.

Modeling work evaluating the loss o tidal wetlands as a resu

level rise indicates that San Francisco Bay could lose a signi

portion o intertidal and tidal wetland areas that provide ood

shelter or a myriad o shorebirds. The losses could be as gre50 to 70 percent in the South Bay, depending on other cont

anthropogenic actors such as subsidence.49 Key ecosystem

will also be lost, resulting in the potential or increased shore

erosion and fooding, and a degradation o the Bays water q

Finally, rising sea levels in combination with changes in timi

quantities o reshwater fows rom the Delta will likely increa

salinity levels urther into the Delta. A reduction in reshwate

inputs to the Bay as a result o longer drier summer periods

fickruserJillClardy


19/40

SPUR Report > May

projected to shit the salinity gradient eastward during the spring

and summer.50 This shit may be exacerbated by potential changes

n the management o Delta water resources or water supply and

agriculture. A salinity increase may reduce plant diversity even more

and threaten several o the rare plants that are associated with resh-

brackish marshes in the Delta region.

SPURs recedatis recsstes ad bidiversit

1. Protect viable migratory paths or wetlands.Wetland species will need to gradually move landward as lower areas

are inundated. Protecting viable migratory pathways is essential

o the survivability o at-risk ecosystems that provide pollution

ltration, food protection, carbon sequestration, sheries and other

socioeconomic benets. There are 417 square miles o Bay and

coastal wetlands in the nine-county Bay Area today, and there are

only about 57 square miles o dry land area that are viablei.e., notdeveloped with buildings, inrastructure or agricultureor wetlands

o migrate to.51 These areas are the highest priority or protection

and non-conversion to other land uses. The Caliornia Coastal

Commission, the Coastal Conservancy, BCDC and others should

evaluate the vulnerability o existing areas o tidal wetlands in the Bay

and on the coast, and should map their natural landward migratory

paths under expected amounts o sea level rise. Wherever pathways

are identied into vacant or underdeveloped areas that have the

potential or substantial wetland restoration, the pathways should

not be converted to land uses that would impede migration. Where

here are willing landowners, privately owned land viable or wetland

migration should be protected by public agencies or land trusts with

ee title acquisitions, conservation easements or other agreementswith landowners.

2. Prioritize land protection, conservation and

restoration eorts in areas with signicant

topographical relie, such as in the coastal range.Areas that possess a range o elevations within a small geographic

area generally have more biodiversity to begin with. Protecting

gradients in the landscape will allow species to migrate or seek reuge

rom hotter, drier conditions.

3. Prioritize protection o habitat linkages connecting

arge natural areas in the greater Bay Area.The protection o linkages or corridors between large landscapes is

a basic conservation tool that will become even more critical to the

protection o biodiversity as the climate changes. Identication and

protection o wildlie corridors will allow plants and wildlie to migrate

northward, to higher elevations or toward the coast as temperatures

ncrease.

4. Update the Baylands Habitat Goals Project to

include sea level rise projections.The Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Project is a multiagency e

to identiy what kinds and amounts o wetland habitats around th

Bay should be restored to sustain diverse wildlie.52 Conceived in

1993 and established in 1999, the goals did not account or utu

changes in the rate o sea level r ise. BCDC, the U.S. EnvironmenProtection Agency, the Regional Water Quality Control Board, the

Coastal Conservancy and other partners should update these goa

to strategically target near-term restoration eorts along the Bay

shoreline, emphasizing the protection o wetland migratory pathw

5. Develop a regional sediment-management strate

that could help protect wetlands rom sea level ris

and prevent adverse water quality impacts.Sediment supply is necessary or wetlands to keep up with sea

level rise, but it is threatened by dikes and dams upstream in the

Bays watershed. BCDC should continue and complete its study o

sediment in the Bay to contribute to this regional strategy.


20/40



EnERGyCaliornias energy system is vulnerable to climate change in our

principal ways:

warmertemperaturesandseverestormscouldreduceelectric-grid

reliability;

energydemand,particularlyforcooling,maydramaticallyincrease; changingprecipitationpatternscouldaffecthydroelectricity

supplies;

sealevelriseandincreasedstormsurgescouldpotentiallyaffect

energy inrastructure.

Eectric-grid reiabiitWhile the Bay Area may not experience the same severity or

requency o major heat waves as other areas in Caliornia, all parts o

the state are linked through the electric grid. I other regions endure

a severe heat wave with extreme increases in electricity demand or

cooling, the Bay Areas electric reliability may be more vulnerable.Warmer nights could also lead to the breakdown o key electrical

equipment that relies on cooler evening temperatures to operate

eciently. For example, during the hottest week o the July 2006

heat wave, more than 1.2 million o the 5 million PG&E customers

at that time were without power at some point, due in part to the

number o transormers that could not continue operating in those

temperatures. PG&E lost more than 1,100 transormers during

the heat wave, which, while less than one-tenth o the one million

transormers in its system, was enough to interrupt the transmission

o power to more than a th o its customers.53

Higher temperatures also decrease the eciency o ossil uel-burningpower plants, some types o renewable power plants such as solar

photovoltaic, and energy transmission lines, thus requiring either

increased production or improvements in the eciency o power

generation and transmission.54 Humidity changes can also aect

cooling demand and may decrease the eciency o equipment.

Currently many Bay Area communities suer power outages during

extreme winter weather events, through either downed power lines or

fooded inrastructure. This could increase i extreme weathe

increase in requency or magnitude under climate change.

Icreases i eerg deaMost commercial and residential buildings in Caliornia were

to accommodate wide variations in temperature and will havstructural problems adjusting to projected end-o-century tem

increases. However, there may be signicant increases in en

by buildings with older technologies in place, poor energy e

or heavy reliance on active cooling strategies. As temperatur

Caliornia are expected to increase more in summer than in

buildings in general will exhibit higher demand or summerti

cooling, largely provided through electricity. This is likely to o

reductions in wintertime heating demand, which is largely p

through natural gas.55 In particular, electricity demand or c

will rise at the same time as higher temperatures threaten im

electrical inrastructure, straining local and statewide electric

As energy demand increases, and electric grids become morvulnerable, local on-demand peaker power plants and bac

generators may be switched on, increasing both greenhouse

emissions and localized air pollution.

Energy eciency to reduce demand is a no-regrets climate

mitigation and adaptation strategy that has signicant cost s

I Caliornia improves energy eciency by 1 percent per yea

gross state product will increase by approximately $76 billio

household incomes will increase by up to $48 billion and m

400,000 jobs will be created.56

HdreectricitClimate scientists predict that climate change will result in si

reductions in snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Th

impact could, in turn, a ect utilities hydroelectric generation

is especially important to utilities in the Bay Area such as PG

the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC), Alam

Municipal Power and City o Palo Alto Utilities, which each o

least 10 percent o their electricity rom hydroelectricity.

PG&E does not anticipate that reductions in Sierra Nevada s

alone will have a signicant eect on its hydroelectric genera

the near term, due in large part to adaptation strategies possexisting operations and resources. These include: increasing

carryover reservoir storage levels; reducing conveyance fows

canals and fumes in response to an increased portion o pre

alling as rain; and reducing discretionary reservoir water rele

during the late spring and summer.

However, in the long term, or in the case o several successi

years that create drought conditions, reservoir levels can be

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SPUR Report > May

o levels lower than those required or hydroelectric power generation.

The recent drought in Caliornia illustrates the possible negative

consequences o climate change on hydroelectricity. For example,

rom 2006 (a wetter than average year) to 2007 (a drier than average

year), PG&Es hydroelectric generation dropped rom 22 to 13 percent

o its delivery mix. I Bay Area utilities uture hydroelectric generation

s reduced, that supply might be generated instead by natural gas-

red power plants, which would increase greenhouse-gas emissionsand other pollutants.

The annual economic impact in Caliornia o climate-induced damage

due to the loss o hydropower and the increase in demand or

electricity is expected to range rom $2.7 billion to $6.3 billion, with

oughly $21 billion in energy assets at risk.57

Sea eve rise ad eergirastructureProjected sea level rise along Caliornias coast may result in higher

fooding potential o coastal energy inrastructure, such as natural

gas pipelines and compressor stations, electrical substations, electric

ransmission lines and power plants.

SPURs recedatis reerg

1. Conduct a vulnerability assessment o energy-

system assets at risk o climate impacts.

All energy utilities should conduct vulnerability assessments oenergy-system assets at risk o climate impacts and over time should

mprove the reliability o energy inrastructure and equipment that is

dentied as most likely to ail during extreme events, in balance with

cost, saety and other actors.

2. Develop plans to close the electricity supply gap

under conditions where hydroelectric resources are

diminished or nonexistent. PG&E, the SFPUC and otherutilities that rely on hydroelectricity should develop plans or coping

with diminished resources. The plans should identiy ways to make

up the dierence through energy eciency and demand-response

rst, renewable resources and distributed generation second, andclean and ecient ossil uel generation third, in keeping with the

Caliornia Energy Action Plan loading order, which describes the

priority by which the state should meet new energy demands.

3. Evaluate existing energy-eciency and demand-

response programs or their eectiveness at shaving

peak electricity demand in more requent and

prolonged hot weather. PG&E and local government energprograms unded by ratepayers are both responsible or executing

and ensuring the eectiveness o these programs. These program

must consider longer and more requent hot-weather periods. Tw

promising strategies or improving demand response and load

management in hot weather are smart meters and a smart grid.

4. Replace or retrot the building stock over time

with resource-ecient, climate-adaptive buildingsCodes covering new buildings and major retrots should encoura

designs that make buildings more resilient to energy-supply

interruptions and droughts, employing technologies such as pass

heating and cooling, daylighting, graywater reuse, water recycling

distributed generation and more. Building codes could be built

upon existing third-party standards such as the U.S. Green Build

Councils LEED, Build It Greens GreenPoint Rated or additional

standards aimed specically at resilience and passive survivability

Wider adoption o green-building standards would improve region

climate resiliencebut because building-stock turnover is slow, t

strategy will take decades to realize signicant change.


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WATER mAnAGEmEnTFor more than a century, water development and management has

been one o the most enduring and complex policy issues in the

West. Monumental investments in inrastructure built to move water

around Caliorniaparticularly rom north to south and east to

westhave enabled the states agriculture sector to grow and cities toexist in Southern Caliornia and the Bay Area. Even in the absence o

climate change, demands on limited water resources by every sector

have caused environmental damage and are the subject o ongoing

confict, problems that will only grow as the states population

increases by more than 50 percent by mid-century. Climate change

will not only exacerbate the challenge o meeting demand, but it

directly threatens the viability o water inrastructure through extreme

events and sea level rise.

In the above section on water uncertainty, we described the major

impacts o climate change on water systems. To summarize those

impacts here:

Surfacewatersupplieswillbeaffectedbyearlier-melting

snowpack, and reservoirs may receive less runo overall because

o decreased precipitation and increased water uptake by plants

in their contributing watersheds. Longer, drier summers and

more winter precipitation alling as rain instead o snow will

create storage problems; most o the states water system was

built around capturing spring snowmelt and slowly releasing it

throughout the summer and all (See Fig. 4)Higherwatertemperaturescouldleadtowaterqualityimpairments,

especially in shallow areas.Groundwatersourcesmaysufferlessrechargefromrain,and

coastal aquiers may be at risk o contamination rom saltwater

intrusion i they are over-drated. Delta water supplies may also bethreatened by saltwater reaching urther east.

Urbanwastewatersystemscouldbeoverwhelmedbyseverewinter

storms, causing fooding. Wastewater-treatment processes could

be compromised by saltwater intrusion into collection systems, and

some acilities will be directly threatened by sea level rise.

Climate change adaptation planning is part o the job that regional

water utilities do already. They are required to le ve-year urban

water management plans, detailing how they will ensure tha

meets projected demand. Recent state legislation (rom 200

requires even greater water conservation eorts: a 20 percen

reduction in per capita urban water use by 2020. In part, th

the state deal with the existing challenge o water scarcity, b

builds resilience or loss in snowpack, long-term drought and

water-cycle changes that will be exacerbated by climate cha

Water utilities serving the Bay Area, including the East Bay M

Utility District and the San Francisco Public Utilities Commis

have undertaken water supply modeling to understand shits

quantity and timing o runo that may occur due to climate c

EBMUD and the SFPUC have ound that because o the hig

and capacity o their storage reservoirs, along with other act

climate change may not signicantly aect water deliveries t

about 2020 to 2030.58 San Franciscos Hetch Hetchy wate

is somewhat protected by its high elevation, where the magn

o predicted changes in snowpack and melt through 2030 is

the range o existing runo patterns.59 However, in projectin

and uture changes, the utilities are in the process o actorinnet changes in precipitation, the impact o which may be mu

more signicant by mid-century and beyond. While Bay Are

water customers are lucky to have water supplies not immed

threatened by climate change, this security is relative and m

short-term.

SPURs recedatis water aageet

1. Develop water-supply scenarios or midcent

and beyond that include assumptions about ch(especially decreases) in precipitation amounts

timing.Bay Area water-supply agencies should plan or long-term cl

change through the middle and end o the 21st century. The

should use climate projections (while remaining cognizant o

uncertainties in those projections) to gain understanding o t

potential impacts that may exist, assess vulnerabilities to tho

impacts and plan accordingly.

2. Evaluate alternative water-supply opportunit

and demand-management strategies such as w

conservation, water recycling and desalination

prioritize investment in these strategies accord

cost, reliability and environmental benets.Bay Area water-supply agencies should evaluate and pursue

strategies to increase local and drought-proo supplies in the

portolios. Examples o such supplies include: conservation,

has ewer negative environmental impacts than new supplie

desalination o seawater, which reduces reliance on surace

fickruserBitHead


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SPUR Report > May

sources; conjunctive use, which stores surace supplies rom wet

years in subsurace aquiers or dry years; and recycled water,

which produces new supplies o non-potable water or irrigation and

ndustrial purposes rom treated wastewater.

3. Expand investments in green inrastructure or

ow-impact development.Wastewater agencies, sometimes in collaboration with water-

supply agencies, should model a range o uture storm intensities

and prioritize investments to attenuate food peak fows, increase

groundwater recharge and reduce urban heat islands. Areas that are

at high risk o urban storm-water fooding, or are contributory to such

areas, should be targeted rst.

4. Evaluate the vulnerability o wastewater collect

and treatment systems to severe storms, sea level

rise and storm surge.Where possible, wastewater agencies should retrot ocean and B

outalls with backfow prevention as an interim measure. Agencie

may need to create new design standards or inrastructure that

accommodate larger storm sizes and more requent storm surges

Source:Cayanetal.,2006,

inCaliorniaClimate

AdaptationStrategy,2009,p.80.

The Sierra snowpack provides water to the majority o Caliornians. By the end o this century,as little as 20 percent o the Sierra snowpack may exist under hotter, drier conditions caused

by climate change.

Figure 4: Projected decreases in Caliornias snowpack

20702099

Scenario 1:

Lower warming range

40% remaining

20702099

Scenario 2:

Medium warming range

20% remaining

1961-1990

Historical average

45~0 inches 15 30

April 1 snow water equivalent


24/40



The costs o food protection vary by strategy. Generally, seawalls and levees bring

additional costs, such as increasing erosion and removing habitat, while wetlands bring

numerous additional benets, including enhancing habitat and sequestering carbon.

Figure 6: The costs o food protection in the Bay Area

Type o protection Range o costs rom Bay Area projects

(in year 2000 dollars)

Maintenance costs

New levee $725$2,228 per linear oot 10% annually

Raised/upgraded levee $223$1,085 per linear oot 10% annually

New seawall $2,646$6,173 per linear oot 14% annually

Restored tidal marsh $5,000$200,000 per acre unknown

Global

mean

sea level

relative to

2000

Range o uncertainty Scenarios

Higher emissions

Medium-high emissions

Lower emissions

1900

70 in.

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1950 2000 2050 2100Source:Cayanetal.,2006,inCaliorniaClimate

AdaptationStrategy,

2009,p.80.

Source:PacifcInstitute,200

9

Sea level rise is increasing at such a rapid rate that we are likely to experience a baseline

increase o 55 inches by 2100, though it could be worse i large land-based ice sheets, such

as in Antarctica and Greenland, melt aster than we expect.

Figure 5: How will emissions aect sea level rise?


25/40

SPUR Report > May

SEA lEVEl RISESome aspects o climate change adaptation planning are going to

be easier to manage than others. In part, this is because certain

nstitutions with climate vulnerabilities, such as water agencies and

public health departments, are well-positioned to monitor and adapt

o new threats and these activities are part o the job they doalready. In the Bay Area, sea level r ise is by ar the most dicult

climate adaptation challenge we will ace. There is no precedent

or governing it, yet it stands to dramatically transorm the regions

elationship with its most dening geographic eature.

Desig strategies rsea eve riseThere are many planning and design strategies that could be used

o mitigate sea level rise along the shoreline (see pages 2627).

Some o these strategies could be deployed more regionally, whilesome could be permitted locally as a way to increase resilience

n certain shoreline areas. Many other recent reports, especially

BCDCs Living with a Rising Bay and the Pacic Institutes report

on the vulnerability o the Caliornia coastline, have included detailed

normation on coastal and Bay vulnerabilities, possible protection

strategies, the range and models used to determine expected sea

evel rise and more.

Fiacig ad gverace

n the Bay Area, two special-purpose government agencies haveurisdiction over the water that surrounds us: the San Francisco

Bay Conservation and Development Commission and the Caliornia

Coastal Commission. These agencies have severely limited authority

o implement strategic decisions about adapting to sea level rise.

BCDC issues permits or lling, dredging and changes in use in the

San Francisco Bay, salt ponds and managed wetlands, and on the

shoreline. BCDC makes these permitting decisions in concert with

he policies in its long-term guidance document, the San Francisco

Bay Plan, which, among other things, species which areas along

shoreline should be used or ports, recreation, wildlie reuges an

other purposes. However, BCDCs shoreline jurisdiction to regulat

development only extends to 100 eet upland rom the Bay. In

many places, 100 eet inland is well within the elevation that wil

fooded by a sea level rise o 55 inches.

Along the ocean coastline, the Caliornia Coastal Commission sharesponsibility or developing coastal plans with 60 cities and 15

cou

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