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Spring 2019 Propensity Update
Public Release
1
Youth Poll: Propensity
=
One year earlier
12%12%
15%13%
15%16%
15%14%
15%14%
10%9% 9%
11%
13%12%13%
12%13%12%12%13%
14%13%
14%15%
14%15%
14%12%13%
14%
12%13%13%
14%12%
11%
13% 13%13%13%
18%15%
23%
19%
22%23%
20%22%
21% 21%
14%
13%12%
15%17%
15%17%16%
18%17%
18%18%
20%19%19%
21%19%
22%
19%17%17%
19%
17%16%
17%19%
16%15%
18%17%
19%
17%
6%
9%
7%8% 8%
10%9%
7%8%
7%6%
4% 4%6%
10% 9%8% 8%
7% 7%5%
8% 8%7%
9% 8% 8% 8% 8%7%
9% 8%7%
10%8% 8% 8%
7%8%
10%
7% 8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Aggregate Male Female
FPP9: In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in the Military?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
Youth general military propensity has stayed consistent at an aggregate level and
across males and females from Fall 2018 to Spring 2019.
General Military Propensity By Gender
2Source: DoD Youth Poll
% Definitely/Probably
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values.
Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.= Significant change
from previous poll
20%
15%
14%
10%
8% 7%7% 7%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
% Definitely/Probably
Age
3Source: DoD Youth Poll (Spring 2019)
Note: Estimates are charted to precise values.
Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
General Military Propensity By Age
FPP9: In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in the Military?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
=
One year earlier
10%9%
12%10%
12%13%
11%
12%
12%11%
9%8%
7%8%
12%
10%11%
10%10%10%
9%10%
11%10%10%
10%
11%
11%11%
9%10%
11%
10%
9%9%
11%9%
8%
10%9%
11%10%
16% 17%
14%15%
16%
21%
16%
11%
15%16%
9%
9%10%
13%
16%15%15%
15%
18%17%17%
23%22%
19%
21%
27%
18%
22%
16%
21%20%20%
19%
21%
18%19%19%19%
16%
16%
20%
16%
14%
20%
27%
24%25%25%
27%
22%
20%
25%
14%
11%
13%
16%16%16%16%
15%15%14%
16% 15%
18%
18%
18%19%
18%
21%
17%
15%15%
17%
14%16%
15%18%17%
14%
16%
22%
14%14%
8%10%
11%11%
10%10%8%
13%
8%7%
18%
12%10%
14%
5%
12% 11%
7%6%
8%8%8%
11%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
White Black Hispanic Asian
4Source: DoD Youth Poll
% Definitely/Probably
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values.
Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
General Military Propensity By Race/Ethnicity
Note: Estimates for Black and Asian youth should be interpreted with caution because of relatively large margins of error.
FPP9: In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in the Military?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
= Significant change
from previous poll
=
One year earlier
7%
7%
10%
9% 10%
11%10%
10%10%
11%
6%6%
6%
7%
8%
8%
7%8%
7% 7%
7%
8% 8%
8%
9%
10%
8%
9%
9%
8%
8%
9%
8%
9%
8%
8%8%
7%
9%10%
9%
8%
7%
7%
9%
7%
9%
9%8%
8%8%
10%
5%
5%
4%
7%
8%
7%
9%
7% 7% 7%6%
7%
7%
8%
8%9%
8%
10%
9%
8% 8%8%
7%
8%8%
7%7%
7%
7%
8%
8%
9%9%
7%
9%
10%10%
11%
11%
10%
11% 10%
7%
8%
7%
8%
9%9%
8%8%
8% 8%8%
9%9%
9%9%
10%9%
10%
9%9% 9%
8%
9%
9%
8% 9%
7%
7%
9%
10%
9%
9%
6%
6%
8%8%
8%
10%
7%8%
8%9%
6%
5%
6% 7%
8%
7%
7%7%
7% 7%
7% 6%7% 7%
7%
8%
7%
8%
8%
8%
7%7%
6%
7%
6% 6%7%
5%
6% 7% 7% 7%
4%
5% 6% 6% 6% 6%
6%
6%
7%
6%
4%
5%
4%
5%
6%6%
5% 5%5%
5%4%
4%
5%5%
5%
6%
5%
6%
5%
4%4%
5%
4%
5%4% 5%
4%4%
4%5% 5%
5%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
Army Navy Air Force Marine Corps Coast Guard
5
FPP10A_Q–FPP10E_Q: In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in each
of the following Military Services?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
% Definitely/Probably
Active Duty Propensity by Service
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values.
Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.=
Source: DoD Youth Poll
Significant change
from previous poll
6
Youth Poll: Economic Conditions
=
20%22%22%
28%30%31%31%32%
29% 29%
23% 23%24%
29%
37%
47%
51% 52%
57%
52%53%52%
47%
45%
47%46%45%43%42%
37% 37%35%35%34%
32%32%33%31%
29%29%30%27%
79%76%77%
71%69%68%67%66%67%67%
74% 74%73%
66%
59%
48%
45%44%41%
46%44%47%
50%52%
50%52%53%
55%55%
60% 61%63%62%64%
66%66%65%67%69%69%68%
71%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Very Difficult/Impossible Somewhat/Not At All Difficult
EMP5: “How difficult is it for someone your age to get a full-time job in your community?”
U.S. Military and Economic ConditionsDifficulty of Finding a Job
7Source: DoD Youth Poll
How difficult is it for someone your age to get a full-time job in your community?
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values.
Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.=
As unemployment rates continue to decline, youth are more confident in their ability
to find full-time employment.
Significant change
from previous poll
=
18%19%20%
27%29%
29%
30%
30%
27%
29%
22% 22%23%
26%
37%
48%50%
52%
54%
51%52%
49%
45%
44%45%
44%
44%
41%
41%
35%
35%
35%
33%31%
29%31%
31%
28%
27%
26%27%
27%24%
31%
28%
36%38%
41%41%43%
35%
30%34%33%33%
41% 41%
48% 51%
54%
64%
56%
61%59%
55%54%
56%
50%47%49%
50%49%
47%
37%38%
44%
36%40%
38%
41%
30%
42% 41%
32%
23%
31%
22%
25%27%
30% 30%
29%
31%
28%
22%20% 20%
29% 34%
50%
50%48%
60%
51%
53%53%
49%
43%
48%
43%
45%
44%40%
39%36%
34%
38%
35% 35%
30%
34%
30%
29%
29%28%
25%
48%
44%
48%47%
34%
40%42%
43%
31%
43%
33%
27%
31%
22%
31%29%
27%
22%22%
32%
35%
24%27%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
White Black Hispanic Asian
The proportion of youth reporting difficulty finding a full-time job remained relatively
consistent across racial/ethnicity groups in Spring 2019. However, this proportion has
continued to trend down over the past decade.
Note: Estimates for Black and Asian youth should be interpreted with caution because of relatively large margins of error.
EMP5: “How difficult is it for someone your age to get a full-time job in your community?”
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values.
Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
Source: DoD Youth Poll
Significant change
from previous poll 8
% Very Difficult/Impossible
=
U.S. Military and Economic ConditionsDifficulty of Finding a Job by Race/Ethnicity
9
Backup
Mail-based survey fielded from January 2, 2019 to June 28, 2019.
• A series of five mailings were sent to eight different cohorts semimonthly that invited recipients to
participate.
Final Youth Poll Sample: 4,731 youth aged 16 through 24
• 3,754 (79%) youth aged 16 through 21 – the metrics presented herein focus on this age group.
• 977 (21%) youth aged 22 through 24
Weighted to reflect general population on several dimensions:
• Gender
• Age
• Race/Ethnicity
• Educational Attainment
• Region
Stratified Random Sample
Note: Estimates are charted to precise values. Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
Note: Certain slides provide estimates by race/ethnicity.
• The December 2010 effort was the first Youth Poll with a sufficiently large sample size to report estimates
for Asian youth. Asian youth estimates are included only at the overall level and not by gender because of
sample size restrictions. The effective sample size for Asian youth is small and results should be
interpreted cautiously.
Source: DoD Youth Poll (Spring 2019)
Youth Poll Methodology and Sample
10
17%16%
18%18%18%18%
16%17%
13%
14%14%15%14%
14%14%15%
12%12%
15%
13%
15%
16%
15%14%
15%
14%
10%
9% 9%
11%
13%12%
13%12%
13%12%12%
13%14%
13%
14%15%
14%
15%
14%
12%13%
14%
12%13%
13%
14%12%
11%
13%13%13%
13%
24%
24%
26% 26%26%27%
23%
24%
19%
20%19%20%
18%18%
18%
20%
18%
15%
23%
19%
22%23%
20%
22%
21%21%
14%
13%12%
15%
17%
15%
17%
16%
18%
17%18%
18%
20%
19%
19%
21%
19%
22%
19%
17%
17%
19%
17%
16%
17%
19%
16%
15%
18%
17%
19%
17%
10%
9%10%
11%10%
10%9%10%
7%
9% 9%10%10%
8%9%
10%
6%
9%
7%
8%8%
10%
9%
7%
8%
7%
6%
4%4%
6%
10%9%
8%8%
7%7%
5%
8%8%
7%
9%8%8%8%8%7%
9%8%
7%
10%
8% 8%8%
7%
8%
10%
7%8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Ap
r-01
Au
g-0
1
No
v-0
1
No
v-0
2
Ju
n-0
3
No
v-0
3
Ma
y-0
4
No
v-0
4
Ju
n-0
5
Dec-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
Ju
n-0
7
Dec-0
7
Ju
n-0
8
Dec-0
8
Ju
n-0
9
Dec-0
9
Ju
n-1
0
Dec-1
0
Ju
n-1
1
Dec-1
1
Su
mm
er-
12
Fa
ll-1
2
Sp
rin
g-1
3
Su
mm
er-
13
Fa
ll-1
3
Sp
rin
g-1
4
Su
mm
er-
14
Fa
ll-1
4
Sp
rin
g-1
5
Su
mm
er-
15
Fa
ll-1
5
Sp
rin
g-1
6
Su
mm
er-
16
Fa
ll-1
6
Sp
rin
g-1
7
Su
mm
er-
17
Fa
ll-1
7
Sp
rin
g-1
8
Su
mm
er-
18
Fa
ll-1
8
Sp
rin
g-1
9
Aggregate Male Female
FPP9: In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in the Military?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
Questions: YATS (Q503)–Jun-10 (FPP9): “Now, I'd like to ask you how likely it is that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?”
Dec-10–Onwards (FPP9): “In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in the Military?”
Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values.
Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
Source: DoD YATS and Youth Poll 11
% Definitely/Probably
Historical General Military PropensityBy Gender
=
2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3%2% 1%2%
2%3% 3% 3% 3%3% 3% 3% 3%4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%3% 3% 3% 4%
3%
9%10%12%11%12%
13%12%11%11%12%
8% 7% 7%9%
10%9%10%9%10%9% 9%10%10%9%10%11%10%11%11%9% 9%10%9%10%9%10%10%
8%10% 11%
10% 9%
26%29%
33%31%31%31%
32%31%31%31%29%30%29%
27%
31% 31%29%28%28%
29%29%30%31%31%32%31%30%31%33%33%32%
35%33%
35%
32% 31%
35%33%
32%33%
33% 33%
61%59%
52%
56%54%
53%53%54%54%54%
61% 61%62%61%
55% 56%58%
59%59%58%58%56%
55%56%54%54%
56%53%53%54%55%
51%
55%
52%
55% 55%
52%
56% 55%53% 53%54%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Definitely Probably Probably not Definitely not
FPP9: How likely is it that you will be serving in the Military in the next few years?Response options: Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, Definitely Not
General Military Propensity
12Source: DoD Youth Poll
FPP9_Q: “In the next few years, how likely is it that you will be serving in the Military?”
=Note: Youth ages 16–21. Estimates are charted to precise values.
Labels are rounded to the nearest whole percent.Significant change
from previous poll
31%
32%
33%
35%
38%
39%
44%
50%
50%
50%
Provides future job opportunities
Make a positive difference in my community
Pension and retirement benefits
Experience adventure
Health and medical benefits
Gain experience/work skills
To help others
Travel
To pay for future education
Pay/money
RTJ: if you were to consider joining the U.S. Military, what would be the main
reason(s)? Response options: Yes, multiple response
Top 10 Reasons
Note: Youth ages 16–21.
13
Reasons to Join
Source: DoD Youth Poll (Spring 2019)
30%
31%
31%
31%
31%
32%
39%
52%
58%
66%
Don't want to be deployed overseas
Don't believe I would qualify
Dislike of military lifestyle
Required to live in places I don’t want to
Too long of a commitment
Possibility of interference with college education
Other career interests
Leaving family and friend(s)
Possibility of PTSD or other emotional/psychological issues
Possibility of physical injury/death
RNTJ: What would be the main reason(s) why you would NOT consider joining the
U.S. Military?Response options: Yes, multiple response
Top 10 Reasons
Note: Youth ages 16–21.
14
Reasons Not to Join
Source: DoD Youth Poll (Spring 2019)
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