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Spring 2012

Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

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Page 1: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

Spring 2012

Page 2: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

Advisory

Certain information herein may constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements hereininclude management's go-forward business strategy, management's assessment of future plans and operations, drilling plans and the numberof wells to be drilled in 2012, type curves for various plays and the performance of wells to be drilled based on such type curves, 2012 capitalbudget and expenditures and the allocation thereof, 2012 funds flow, 2012 average production and production growth, anticipated commoditymix for 2012 and 2012 sensitivities. Forward-looking statements necessarily involve risks associated with oil and gas exploration, development,exploitation, production, marketing and transportation, loss of markets, volatility of commodity prices, currency fluctuations, imprecision ofreserve estimates, environmental risks, competition from other producers, inability to retain drilling rigs and other services, capital expenditurecosts, including drilling, completion and facilities costs, unexpected decline rates in wells, wells not performing as expected, delays resultingfrom or inability to obtain required regulatory approvals and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources and other risksidentified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review under Guide's SEDAR profile at www.sedar.com.Forward-looking statements or information are based on a number of factors and assumptions as stated herein which have been used todevelop such statements and information but which may prove to be incorrect. Although Guide believes that the expectations reflected in suchforward-looking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements because theCorporation can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. The forward-looking statements contained herein are madeas at the date hereof and Guide does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included forward-lookingstatements, whether as a result of new information, events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.Included herein is an estimate of Guide's 2012 funds flow and the budget sensitivities related thereto which is based on the various assumptionsas to production levels, commodity prices and exchange rates and that drilling and service costs for 2012 will be similar to the 2011 cost leveland other assumptions stated herein. To the extent such estimate constitutes future oriented financial information or a financial outlook, theywere approved by management of Guide on May 22, 2012, and such future oriented financial information or financial outlook is included hereinto provide readers with an understanding of Guide's anticipated funds flow and Guide's ability to fund its expenditures based on the assumptionsdescribed and estimated herein. Readers are cautioned that the information may not be appropriate for other purposes.Disclosure provided herein in respect of barrels of oil equivalent (boe) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversionratio of 6 Mcf: 1 Bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a valueequivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantlydifferent from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.Type curves presented herein are not necessarily reflective of the performance of future wells.

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Page 3: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

Guide Exploration Ltd.

Trading Symbol GO (TSX)Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 102.4 million

Current Production 15,525 boe/d*Oil Production 5,110 bbl/d

NGLs Production 415 bbl/d

Natural Gas 60 MMcf/d

Reserves Proven P+P

Oil + NGLs 9.1 MMbbls 15.8 MMbbls

Natural Gas 154 Bcf 219 Bcf

Tax Pools $682 million

3

* Based on April 2012 field estimates

Page 4: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

The first nine months

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Focused on oil development and oil production growth

Established strong foundation for future gas development with Boyer acquisition

Established corporate baseline reserves and high graded portfolio of properties

Page 5: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

The first nine months - Focused on Oil

5

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Aug‐11Sep‐11

Q4/11Q1/12

Apr‐12

Oil Prod

uctio

n (bbl/d)

Oil Production Growth

Page 6: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

21 20 21 21 22 21

Dec‐11 Jan‐12 Feb‐12 Mar‐12 Apr‐12 May‐12

Boyer Monthly Production (MMcf/d)

The first nine months - Established strong gas foundation

6

Pre Boyer acquisition, company decline was 34%. With Boyer acquisition, company decline is 28%Acquired 67.5 Bcf of proven gasProduction flat since evaluation in November 2011

Page 7: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

The first nine months - Established baseline reserves

7

Y/E 2010 Y/E 2011*Proven Oil (Mbbl) 12,274 8,375Proven NGLs (Mbbl) 891 685Proven Gas (MMcf) 135,967 153,715

P+P Oil (Mbbl) 26,533 14,692P+P NGLs (Mbbl) 1,622 1,061P+P Gas (MMcf) 215,698 219,132

Cleaned up an aggressive 2010 reserve bookCurrent portfolio is 66% provenReduced 2P future development capital from $363 million to $211 millionBefore tax NPV at 10% P+P year end 2011 is $731 million

* Proforma Boyer acquisition February 2012

Reevaluate Guide reserve base

Page 8: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

2012 Guidance - Forecast

Forecast Average Production 15,500 ‐ 16,300 boe/dOil 5,300 ‐ 5,500 bbl/dNGLs 400 ‐ 450 bbl/dGas 59 ‐ 62 MMcf/d

Forecast Funds Flow $120 ‐ $130 millionCapital Budget  $130 ‐ $140 million

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Based on average prices of WTI US $90/bbl, $2.25/GJ AECOand currency exchange rate at par

(40% Growth)

Page 9: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

2012 Guidance – Hedge Book

9

Hedges Price Term

500 bbl/day Oil $85.00/$90.00 WTI CDN COLLAR Jan1/12 ‐ Dec 31/12

1,000 bbl/day Oil $91.25 WTI CDN FIXED Mar 1/12 ‐ Dec 31/12

1,100 bbl/day Oil $94.00 WTI USD FIXED Mar 1/12 ‐ Dec 31/12

500 bbl/day Oil $98.00/$102.00 WTI CDN COLLAR Jan 1/13 – Dec 31/13

1,500 bbl/day Oil $85.00 WTI USD CALL Jan 1/13 – Dec 31/13

500 bbl/day Oil $85.00 WTI USD SWAPTION Jan 1/13 – Dec 31/13

50% of 2012 gas sales hedged at 

average price of $5.09/Mcf

Aim of program is to reduce price volatility

Building 2013 hedge book

21,400 Mcf/day Gas $5.25/Mcf CDN FIXED Jan 1/12 ‐ Dec 31/12

9,500 Mcf/day Gas $4.73/Mcf CDN FIXED Mar 1/12 ‐ Dec 31/12

4,800 Mcf/day Gas $4.41/Mcf CDN FIXED Nov 1/12 ‐ Oct 31/13

9,500 Mcf/day Gas $3.78/Mcf CDN FIXED Jan 1/13 ‐ Dec 31/13

9,500 Mcf/day Gas $4.25/Mcf CDN FIXED Apr 1/13 ‐ Dec 31/13

Page 10: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

Key Areas

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Northern Gas*694,000 net acres21.8 MMcf/d gas

Peace River Arch Oil*600,000 net acres4,275 bbl/d oil + NGLs36 MMcf/d gas

1,400,000 net acres

* April 2012 field estimates

Cherhill Oil*49,000 net acres430 bbl/d oil + NGLs2.2 MMcf/d gas

Page 11: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

Key Area - Peace River

Dominant land position (600,000 net acres) in multizone play area

Two‐thirds of current production

4,050 bbl/d oil (28° API)225 bbl/d NGLs36 MMcf/d gas

Focus on Montney Oil

11

GuideFacility

Page 12: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

Key Area - Peace River Montney

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Peace River Area (Montney)2012 2014

Capital $185 ‐ $200 million

90 Delineation & infill wells

Peripheral vertical water injectors  to initiate pressure maintenance and promote higher recovery

Expanding oil handling capability to 10,000 bbl/d  in 2012

2011 HZ wells2012 Q1 HZ Wells2012 Q3 – 2014 HZ WellsPotential Water Injectors

Page 13: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

3 Month average 150 boe/d

12 Month average 107 boe/d

EUR 152 Mboe

Oil weighting 70%

ROR 120%

Payout 1 year

Recycle ratio 3.5

On stream capital $2 million

NPV BT 10% $3.2 million

Montney Oil - Strong Economics

13

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Prod

uctio

n (boe

/d)

Month

Peace Area HZ Montney Oil Type Curve (20 stages)

Page 14: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

Key Area - Boyer

14

Shallow decline (8%) gas property

694,000 net acre land position

Current drilling density less than 1.5 wells per section

Minimal capital for 2012. Upcoming winter program to evaluate drilling and completion methods/efficiencies/costs

Guide FacilitiesGas

Page 15: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

More Exploration for Unconventional Oil

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100,000+ net acres of Nordegg and Duvernayshale resource potential

Wide Triassic tight oil fairway

Emerging tight carbonate fairway

Duvernay/Nordegg Shale Resource

TightCarbonateFairway

Tight Triassic Oil Fairway

Page 16: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

Development budget $110 ‐ $120 million

Liquids weighting approaching 40% by year‐end 

Target 40%+ growth in year over year average oil production

Exploration budget of$20 million fully fundedby flow‐through shares

2012 Capital Budget

4%

38% 29%

20%9%

Facilities/Pipelines

Completions/ EquipmentDrilling

16

Page 17: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

$94 million$53 million

$53 million$25 million

$25 million

ScotiabankATB

HSBCUnion Bank

National Bank

Bank Facility

17

$225 million extendible 364 day revolving term facility and a $25 million non‐revolving facility

Current debt + working capital of $224 million

Bank SyndicateThe Bank of Nova ScotiaAlberta Treasury BranchesHSBC Bank CanadaUnion Bank of CaliforniaNational Bank of Canada

Page 18: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

Appendix - Reserves

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Total Proved Total Proved + Probable NPV 10% ($mm before tax)Light and Medium Oil (MBBLs) 6,668 11,842 339Heavy Oil 1,707 2,850 68Natural Gas Liquids 685 1,061 Included with Nat. GasTotal Oil + NGLs 9,060 15,753 407Natural Gas (BCF) 154 219 305Other Income ‐ ‐ 19Total Oil + Gas (MBOE) 34,680 52,276 731100% of reserves evaluated by Sproule & Associates as at December 31, 2011Undiscounted development capital (1P) $142mm (2P) $211mm

Price ForecastsWTI Cushing Oklahoma (US$/Bbl)

Alberta AECO‐C Spot ($CDN/MMBTU)

2012 98.14 3.412013 98.60 4.052014 99.01 4.532015 101.08 5.212016 102.33 5.562017 103.61 5.912018 105.23 6.192019 107.04 6.422020 108.89 6.68

Page 19: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

Appendix

2012 Budget Sensitivity

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WTI (US$/bbl)AECO ($/GJ)  $85.00  $90.00  $95.00  $100.00 

Funds Flow per Share

$2.00  1.03 1.09 1.12 1.17$2.25  1.05 1.11 1.15 1.19$2.50  1.07 1.13 1.17 1.21$2.75  1.09 1.15 1.19 1.23$3.00  1.11 1.17 1.21 1.25

Funds Flow

$2.00  105 111 116 119$2.25  107 113 118 121$2.50  109 115 120 123$2.75  111 117 122 126$3.00  113 119 124 128

Page 20: Spring 2012 - Newswireextras.newswire.ca/sepac/June2012/GO-2012-06-06-SEPAC...2012/06/06  · identified in Guide's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review

20

Corporate Information TSX.GO

Corporate OfficeGuide Exploration Ltd.

Livingston Place, West TowerSuite 400, 250 – 2nd Street SW

Calgary, AB T2P 0C1

www.guidex.ca

CONTACTSBill Andrew Chair & Chief Executive OfficerDale Miller PresidentJennifer Livingston Manager, Investor RelationsJosh Groberman Investor Relations Analyst

Main: 403-261-6012Toll-Free Investor Line: 1-888-598-1330Email: [email protected]