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transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS

SPoRT Ongoing Modeling Projects

Science Advisory Committee Meeting

13 June 2007

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transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS

Extension of R&A to ApplicationsPartnership with NWS/MIA

Direct Outcome of the Joint NAS SOO/SPoRT Workshop

SPoRT and Pablo Santos (SOO/MIA) developed a plan to evaluate and then transition the MODIS SST composites within WRF for use in Miami’s operational forecasts

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transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS

Methodology for MIA Modeling

Skin Temperature (incl. MODIS SSTs)

• Project designed to optimize and share computational resources—a direct outcome of the 2006 workshop

• 27 h WRF-NMM simulations have been run four times daily since February 2007

• 4 km resolution; 31 vertical levels

• MIA uses LAPS for initialization

• SPoRT parallel runs use the 2 km MODIS SST composites, while Miami’s forecasts use the 1/12° RTG SST analyses

• 27 h forecast initialized daily at 03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC.

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transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS

Future Plans

• Determine the impact of MODIS SSTs (research perspective)

o Verify forecasts against surface and precipitation observations

o Perform comparison of forecasts similar to May 2004 study period to show general impact

• Transition the capability to ingest the MODIS SST composites to Miami WFO

• Integrate LIS soil moisture representation into system

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transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS

What is the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed?

Both a facility and an organization…

- The facility is located on the second floor of the new NWC, between the SPC and WFO OUN operational forecasting areas.

- An organization that supports and promotes collaborative research activities between NSSL, SPC, OUN, and the broader meteorological community.

Two Main Program Areas…

Experimental

Warning

Program

Experimental

Forecast

Program

EFP EWP

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transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS

Hazardous Weather Testbed Benefits

• The close working relationship between operational and research meteorologists has fostered

– Increased appreciation by Research Meteorologists of forecaster insights, and operational constraints and requirements

– Education of Operational Meteorologists about NWP models, other research and diagnostic tools, and application of scientific knowledge to severe weather forecasting

– Accelerated transfer of useful new technologies, products and diagnostic / prediction tools from research to operations

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transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS

Proposed HWT Activities: Spring Program 2007

• Annual SPC/NSSL Spring Program– First year of multi-year effort (2007-2009)– Contributing Partners: SPC, NSSL, CAPS, EMC,

NCAR, OUN (unique diversity of backgrounds and expertise)

– Scientific Objectives: • Improve high resolution WRF models

– Further explore impacts of various physics (PBL, microphysics, etc.) on high-res WRF forecasts

» Pre-convective environment, PBL sounding structure, and convective storms

– Continue investigating impact of resolution on WRF simulation of stormscale structures (e.g., supercells, bow echoes, etc.)

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transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS

Proposed HWT Activities: Spring Program 2007

• Scientific Objectives (cont’d)– Begin to explore development and utility of a daily high

resolution convection-allowing 10 member WRF ensemble in short-term (12-30h) prediction of severe convection

• Investigate IC versus physics spread in convection-allowing ensemble

• Explore understanding of physics on ensemble performance– Environment; convective initiation, intensity and mode

• Compare to “higher” resolution deterministic WRF– 2 km WRF (CAPS) and 3 km WRF (NCAR)

• Begin developing interrogation tools to extract ensemble-based information for a variety of hazardous weather events

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transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to the NWS

Collaboration With SPoRT….

•Validate the water/energy cycle against data from field programs

•Semi- Real and Real Time at GPM Super sites and C4, NAMMA

•Hurricane/Typhoon (I mpact of microphysics and land surface on intensity - fine resolution simulation - diurnal cycle?)

•Regional Climate

•Cloud- Aerosol I nteractions (transport - Asia and NE USA)

W RF M odifications and Applications at Goddard

W . Lau, K. Pickering, C. M ian,R. ShiC. Peters-Lidard, W .-K. Tao

Land Information System (LIS) Land Surface Model

Goddard Microphysical Packages

Goddard Radiative Transfer Packages

Cloud Optical Properties

Aerosol Indirect Effect

Cloud/Aerosol Direct Effect

Urband Heat Island Effect

Sfc FluxesPrecipitation Radiation

Cloud-Mesoscale Dyanmics (Circulation) Thermodynamic (Stability)

Blue Boxes: Goddard Physical Packages

W RF

W ater Cycle (NEW S)

Satellite Data Field Cam paigns

A Midlatitude Frontal Band Simulated by WRF with Goddard Microphysics: the IHOP 12 June 2002 case

RussiaRussiaRadar reflectivity (in dBz) simulated by WRF with six different microphysical schemes. Top three panels from left to right are WRF’s current options:

the Thomson, WSM6 and Purdue/Lin schemes, respectively; bottom three

panels are the Goddard microphysical schemes: 3ICE-graupel, 2ICE and

3ICE-hail, respectively.

Observed Composite

Radar Reflectivities

(dBz)

PDF (probability distribution function) of WRF-simulated rainfall intensity from six different

microphysical schemes. Observed values (from rain gauges) are also shown for comparison.

The influence of the microphysical processes on precipitation intensity and organization is identified. Also correct selectionof microphysical scheme is needed for better simulate/forecast different types of cloud system. Overall, the sensitivity test indicated the importance of using a microphysical scheme with cloud hail instead of cloud graupelin a midlatutudeconvective line system study.