SpendTrend Special Report Update | Coronavirus Impact on … · 2020-06-25 · SpendTrend® Special Report Update | Coronavirus Impact on Consumer Spending SpendTrend ® Special Report

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020

SpendTrend® Special Report

Update | Coronavirus Impact on Consumer Spending


All data is Fiserv proprietary data and includes only actual card-based forms of payment. SpendTrend is a macroeconomic indicator that reports aggregated year-over-year same store sales activity for card-based payments. SpendTrend from Fiserv does not represent Fiserv financial performance. © 2020 Fiserv. All rights reserved.

June 25, 2020

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Executive Summary

The notable rebound witnessed in May continued into June

as the loosening up of lockdown measures has driven an

increase in consumer activity and a solid recovery in

spending across multiple sectors.

Our proprietary SpendTrend analysis shows that the YoY decline in

consumer spending improved from -21.5% in May, to -14.5% through

the first 16 days of June, as the rebound that began in the second half

of April continues apace. Looking across sectors, several are

demonstrating consistently upward-sloping rebounds, such as Dining,

Gas Stations, Clothing, Furniture and Luxury. Sectors that saw

particularly sharp rebounds across April / May, such as Building

Materials and Electronics, have held onto those gains into June.

Notably, the Building Materials sector is trending well above pre-

pandemic levels. Even sectors that have seen the sharpest and most

sustained weakness, such as Entertainment and Travel, appear to

have finally bounced off their troughs, though velocity still remains at

relatively low levels.

Taken together, consumer spending wallet share continues to shift back

more towards discretionary categories, from non-discretionary, and is

nearing pre-pandemic proportions.

Within payment types, recent trends in behavioral changes may be

leveling off. While the share of cash usage at the point of sale has

declined almost 770 basis points since January, this reading is up from

the recent low for cash utilization. Relatedly, while the use of mobile

wallets for in-app and e-commerce purchases almost doubled from

March to May, that usage has eased slightly in recent weeks as physical

stores are in the reopening phase.

Now begins the debate between loosening up of the economy, and its

subsequent rebound, versus increasing infection rates seen across a

growing number of states. While it is too early to call the impact of

increasing infection rates on the economic recovery, we also recognize

that improving consumer confidence could be impacted by the broader

coronavirus narrative.

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U.S. Commerce Trends Through June 16

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020


2.1%0.2%

4.3% 2.8%1.7% 1.3% 2.1% 2.6% 1.9% 2.5% 2.4%

3.5% 3.5%1.8%

-17.4%

-34.4%

-21.5%

-14.5%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2019 2020

1

Monthly SpendTrend Trajectory

While still in negative territory, the trajectory of spending continues to improve as we move into June

YoY Sales Growth

Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis. 1. June 1-16.

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020


Source: SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.

5

$38

$40

$42

$44

$46

$48

$50

$52

$54

$56

$58

$60

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

11

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YoY Transaction Growth

(7-day moving average)

Average Ticket


Food, Beverageand Grocery

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$49

-2%

Average ticket

(right axis)

Transaction growth

(left axis)

Grocery transactions have

settled into a steady state in

recent weeks and remain

down slightly year-over-year

as consumers shop less

frequently. Ticket sizes have

moderated from their March

highs, but remain above pre-

crisis levels as basket size has

increased.

Stimulus payments may have

shifted dining spend from

grocery to more dining out /

pick-up (see next slide)

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6

YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)

Ex-QSR begins February 1.

Dining Out and Restaurants

The Dining sector has seen a

consistently steady rebound

in recent weeks, benefitting

from reopening measures

across many states. At the

same time, warmer weather

has enabled more venues to

establish an outside dining

presence.-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

11

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27

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12

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28

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15

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Ex-QSR

-12%

-32%

Stimulus payments

may have shifted

dining spend from

grocery to more

dining out / pick-up

(see prior slide)

16-J

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020


Source: Fiserv. SpendTrend. Note: Data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis. 1. February 1-14. 2. February 15-28. 3. March 1-15. 4. March 16-31. 5. April 1-14. 6. April 15-30. 7. May 1-12. 8. May 13-31.

Dining Out and Restaurants Category Breakdown

YoY Sales Growth

Weakest No Growth Strongest


All Dining subcategories have

seen improvement across

May into June. While QSR

has been the brightest spot

throughout the crisis, Family

Dining has seen the best

relative improvement versus

April.

Chart needs to

be updated

1H

Feb1

2H

Feb2

1H

Mar3

2H

Mar4

1H

Apr5

2H

Apr6

1H

May7

2H

May8

June

1-16

Casual Dining 0% 5% -12% -77% -77% -72% -67% -59% -50%

Family Dining 2% 4% -10% -72% -75% -69% -62% -53% -45%

Fast Casual 3% 4% -3% -43% -42% -26% -25% -20% -16%

QSR 9% 8% 6% -21% -20% 0% 6% 8% 9%

Upscale Dining 1% 7% 1% -88% -89% -89% -86% -80% -71%

Total

Restaurants3% 5% -5% -49% -40% -34% -29% -22% -16%

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8

Building Materials and Garden Supply YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)

The sector has held on to the

gains seen throughout April

and remains well above pre-

crisis levels, thanks to

continued stay-at-home

dynamics supercharging

seasonal gardening and

home improvement activity.

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

32%

36%

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28

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18

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28%

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Electronics and Appliances YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)

Similar to Building Materials

and Garden Supply, Electronics

have held on to the sharp gains

seen in April as the effects of

stimulus linger, coupled with

continued demand for home

entertainment and work-from-

home technology.

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

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2%

Potential lift from

stimulus payments

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Gas Stations

Consumer mobility continues

to rebound as the economy

begins to open up and

consumers get “out and

about,” primarily via autos,

which is likely triggering a

corresponding increase in

gas demand.

Source: SpendTrend, Apple Mobility Trends Reports. Note: SpendTrend data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis. Apple Mobility Trends represents the driving index and is derived from anonymized Apple Maps data requests, and are based on the change in number of routing requests made over time.



Apple Mobility Trends


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

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Apple Mobility

Trend (right axis)

Transaction growth

(left axis)

-9%

128

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Clothing


-15%

Clothing remains on a steep

positive rebound, possibly

due to consumer’s

“freshening” up their

wardrobes as they get out

and socialize more and

physical clothing stores are

finally able to reopen in

many parts of the country. -80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

11

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27

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12

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28

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15

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31

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16

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2-M

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18

-Ma

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020



12

Furniture


Furniture continues to follow a

similar rebound trend as

Clothing. The desire for

refreshing one’s living space

remains elevated – the reality

is that people expect to spend

more time at home – which

may be contributing to the

category performing above

pre-pandemic levels.-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

11

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27

-Ja

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12

-Fe

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15

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31

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18

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7%

Potential lift from

stimulus payments

16-J

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020


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Luxury Goods

The Luxury category is

likely benefitting somewhat

by the stock market’s

rebound along with the

overall loosening up of the

economy as consumers

spend some of their

“shelter-in-place” savings.

S&P 500




Source: SpendTrend, Refinitiv. Note: SpendTrend data represents Brick & Mortar and E-commerce, on a same-store-sales basis.

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

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27

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12

-Fe

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28

-Fe

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15

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31

-Ma

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18

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-31%

S&P 500

(right axis)

Transaction growth

(left axis)

3,123

16-J

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020



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Entertainment and Leisure YoY Transaction Growth (7-day moving average)

The sector is starting to see

early progress as some

states are allowing larger

gatherings. Overall category

activity is improving as

venues adapt to the reality

of safety concerns and

deploy new approaches,

such as drive-in movies.-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

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-58%

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020



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Travel


The sector is starting to

improve as people begin to

plan vacations and travel

after several months of

isolation. Airlines are

beginning to see increases

in passenger traffic, while

hotels are also seeing the

early stages of improving

occupancy. -100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

11

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27

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12

-Fe

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28

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15

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31

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16

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18

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-68%

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Additional Analysis

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Source: Fiserv. 1. Measured as U.S. cash transactions as a percent of total at Clover merchants.

Cash Usage at the Point of Sale

Will covid-19 end the use of paper money?

The Washington Post

Will Covid-19 Kill Cash As We Know It?

Forbes

World Health Organization: ‘We did NOT

say that cash was transmitting coronavirus’

MarketWatch

Cash Usage Decrease1 (14-day moving average)


14

-Jan

21

-Jan

28

-Jan

4-F

eb

11

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

3-M

ar

10

-Mar

17

-Mar

24

-Mar

31

-Mar

7-A

pr

14

-Apr

21

-Apr

28

-Apr

5-M

ay

12

-May

19

-May

26

-May

2-J

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9-J

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16

-Jun

769 bps ↓decrease in cash usage

since the start of 2020…

but it appears to have

reached a bottom

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020


Mobile Wallet In-App / E-Commerce Activity

Mobile Wallet (In-App / E-Commerce) Share of Transactions1



Mobile Wallet In-App /

E-Commerce activity

increased as brick and mortar

stores closed and consumers

shifted to delivery and pick-

up, though its recent upward

move may have plateaued as

restrictions ease.

Source: Fiserv. 1. Measured as Mobile E-commerce transactions as a percent of overall transactions. Mobile E-commerce transactions include transactions performed through mobile wallets such as Masterpass, Visa Checkout, Walmart Pay®, Apple Pay®, Samsung Pay® and Google Pay®, but excludes face-to-face contactless near field communications (NFC) transactions conducted via methods such as Apple Pay®, Samsung Pay® or Google Pay®.

7-J

an

14

-Jan

21

-Jan

28

-Jan

4-F

eb

11

-Fe

b

18

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

3-M

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10

-Mar

17

-Mar

24

-Mar

31

-Mar

7-A

pr

14

-Apr

21

-Apr

28

-Apr

5-M

ay

12

-May

19

-May

26

-May

2-J

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9-J

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16

-Jun

~1.6x ↑increase in penetration of mobile

wallet in-app / e-commerce

transactions since mid-March

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020


ATM Transaction Trends

ATM withdrawals immediately

declined as lockdowns took hold

due to less need for cash, but

have steadily improved since the

April trough. Average withdrawal

amounts have also steadily

increased, possibly due to

stimulus payments and some

banks increasing withdrawal

limits.

Source: Fiserv. Note: ATM withdrawal transactions includes STAR® and Accel® network transactions. 1. February 1-14. 2. February 15-28. 3. March 1-15. 4. March 16-31. 5. April 1-15. 6. April 16-30. 7. May 1-15. 8. May 16-31.

YoY Growth – Number of Transactions


-6%

-2%

-7%

-49%-50%

-44%-41%

-36%

-28%

$126.44 $127.57

$128.20

$125.88

$128.91 $128.75

$130.51 $129.28

$136.51

1HFebruary

2HFebruary

1HMarch

2HMarch

1HApril

2HApril

1HMay

2HMay

June1-16

Average Withdrawal Amount

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020


Spending by Type

While Nondiscretionary spend

(as a percent of total) peaked

in the second half of March as

consumers focused on the

essentials, Discretionary spend

has come back as stores open

up. Meanwhile, Services

remain depressed as some

tend to be driven more by

“high-contact” activity.

Sales Mix by Spending Type


Source: Fiserv. 1. January 1-15. 2. January 16-31. 3. February 1-14. 4. February 15-28. 5. March 1-15. 6. March 16-31. 7. April 1-15. 8. April 16-30. 9. May 1-15. 10. May 16-31.

Discretionary Nondiscretionary Services

1H January 2H January 1H February 2H February 1H March 2H March

1H April 2H April 1H May 2H May June 1-16

1 2 3 4 5

7 8 9

6

10

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020


P2P Trends

P2P payment growth steadily

decelerated in March, more for Gen Z

than other generations; however,

once stimulus payments arrived, P2P

transfers by Gen Z saw the largest

spike.

Source: Fiserv.


Source: Fiserv.

Dollar Amount Growth by Selected Generations – YoY Growth

Transaction Count Growth by Amount Range – YoY GrowthSimilarly, transaction growth across

all size ranges decelerated in March,

but those between $1,000-$2,000

increased the most in April, coinciding

with stimulus payments of $1,200.1

-Jan

8-J

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15

-Jan

22

-Jan

29

-Jan

5-F

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12

-Fe

b

19

-Fe

b

26

-Fe

b

4-M

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11

-Mar

18

-Mar

25

-Mar

1-A

pr

8-A

pr

15

-Ap

r

22

-Ap

r

29

-Ap

r

6-M

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13

-May

20

-May

27

-May

3-J

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10

-Ju

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17

-Ju

n

$1,000-$2,000

All Transactions

Stimulus payments arrive

1-J

an

8-J

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15

-Jan

22

-Jan

29

-Jan

5-F

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12

-Fe

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19

-Fe

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26

-Fe

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4-M

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11

-Mar

18

-Mar

25

-Mar

1-A

pr

8-A

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15

-Ap

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22

-Ap

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29

-Ap

r

6-M

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13

-May

20

-May

27

-May

3-J

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10

-Ju

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17

-Ju

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GenZ

BoomerStimulus payments arrive

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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020

SpendTrend® Special Report SpendTrend® Special Report

Bank Account Activity

The rate of overdrafts is decreasing as

consumers spend less.

Consumer Accounts Entering Overdraft – YoY Growth

Consumer Accounts with Deposits – YoY Growth

New Small Business Accounts – YoY Growth

As lockdowns occurred, cash and check

deposits stagnated, but as restrictions

eased they have started to increase.

Small business account opening peaked in

mid-April ahead of the Paycheck Protection

Program. Growth looks to be moving back

toward pre-pandemic levels.

Source: Fiserv.

ACH

Cash & Check

4,300 bps

deceleration

6,000 bps

acceleration

10,000 bps

deceleration15,000 bps

acceleration

Week of 23-Mar Week of 1-Jun



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2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 © 2020 Fiserv, Inc.


Same Store figures include activity (amount of USD sales volumes or transactions) for merchant locations that

are open and have activity in both comparison time periods. They are not reflective of overall Fiserv activity.

Same Store Dollar Volume growth reflects the percent change in the USD amount of same store sales (net of

returns) in the current period compared to the same period in the prior year. Same Store Transaction growth

reflects the percent change in the number of same store transactions (net of returns) in the current period

compared to the same period in the prior year.

Same Store Average Ticket is derived by dividing the total USD amount of Same Store Sales for a specified

period by the total number of Same Store Transactions for that same period.

Same Store Sales Data includes sample data which we believe generally reflects current trends but does not

include all data available to Fiserv and specifically excludes Salem platform, Bank of America proprietary

platform, and Bank of America TSYS platform activity.

All data contains Credit, Debit and EBT transactions.

All charts show year-over-year (YoY) growth rates for same time period in previous year. Growth rates are not

seasonally adjusted.

Cash Usage at the Point of Sale includes transactions conducted at Clover Point of Sale terminals.

Mobile Wallet (in-app/e-commerce) includes transactions performed through mobile wallets such as Masterpass,

Visa Checkout, Walmart Pay, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay and Google Pay, but excludes face-to-face contactless

near field communications (NFC) transactions conducted via methods such as Apple Pay, Samsung Pay or

Google Pay.

P2P is person-to-person cash transfer services initiated with bank accounts at select financial institutions.

How to Read SpendTrend

All growth rates compare current performance to that of the same period prior year. We believe year-over-year

growth better reflects organic spending patterns. 7-day moving averages reflect the mean of the prior seven (7)

days.

We do not adjust for seasonality. We believe that seasonality adjustments are best made by the users of our

reports.

Our analysis is based on normalized POS activity from Fiserv’s proprietary systems. Our data includes only

card-based payments and checks where appropriate. Key differences between SpendTrend and other available

reports:

Government and network association reports are often based on surveys and estimates rather than actual POS

activity.

Government and network association reports often make sequential growth comparisons (i.e. April 2020 vs.

March 2020 instead of April 2020 vs. April 2019).

Government and network association reports make adjustments for assumptions and seasonality.

Terms and Conditions

The following terms and conditions (“Terms of Use”) apply to persons who are authorized to receive or obtain possession (“Rec ipient”) of this SpendTrend® report which was

prepared by First Data Merchant Services LLC (“First Data”), an affiliate of Fiserv, Inc. (referred to collectively as “Fiserv”) and governs Recipient’s use of the SpendTrend report

(including any portions or derivations thereof) and any articles, text, data, information, and other materials and services related thereto or included herein (collectively, “SpendTrend

report”). If Recipient is a subscriber to SpendTrend report, the terms of the subscriber agreement are in addition to and sha ll control to the extent there is any conflict with the terms

herein. Recipient agrees to be bound by, and to use the SpendTrend report in compliance with, the Terms of Use and all applicable laws, regulations, and rules. These Terms of Use

may be amended from time to time by Fiserv without notice and it is the Recipient’s responsibility to review the Terms of Use on www.spendtrend.com for updates, if any. If you have

any questions regarding the Terms of Use or the SpendTrend report, please contact Fiserv SpendTrend at [email protected].

1. Recipient is permitted to review, use, report, summarize, and print copies of the SpendTrend report solely for Recipient’s internal use as set forth in these Terms of Use. Except as

expressly permitted herein, the SpendTrend report or any portions thereof may not be otherwise reviewed, accessed, downloaded, used, reported, summarized, copied, reproduced,

modified, distributed to third parties, or published in any form or media. Recipient may not disclose or make available to third parties, all or any portion of the SpendTrend report

(including summaries thereof). The SpendTrend report is created with data that includes processing data from Fiserv’s credit, debit, EBT and check information warehouse that

Fiserv owns or has a contractual or other right to provide to Recipient through SpendTrend.

2. RECIPIENT SHALL NOT CHANGE, OBSCURE, OR REMOVE ANY COPYRIGHT OR OTHER NOTICE OR LEGEND APPEARING ON THE SPENDTREND REPORT; AND

RECIPIENT SHALL AT ALL TIMES LIST FISERV AS THE SOURCE OF ANY AND ALL INFORMATION, DATA, REPORTS, SUMMARY, QUOTES, AND OTHER SPENDTREND

CONTENT THAT MAY BE DISCLOSED TO THIRD PARTIES IN CONFORMANCE WITH THESE TERMS OF USE.

3. Fiserv does not provide any investment or financial advice and is not advocating the sale or purchase of any stocks, bonds, or securities. If Recipient is able to discern any

information about a particular entity or fund from the information in the SpendTrend report, either alone or with other information in the possession of Recipient. Recipient

understands and acknowledges that the information may be insider information under applicable law or otherwise restricted and Recipient will limit its use thereof in accordance with

applicable laws. Fiserv expressly states, and Recipient hereby acknowledges that this SpendTrend report is provided solely for informational purposes only and is not to be used as

a substitute for independent financial investment advice nor is it intended to be relied upon by any person or entity, including Recipient’s clients/customers, for the purpose of

investment or other financial decisions. This SpendTrend report contains forward-looking statements which involve significant risks and uncertainties, and a number of factors, both

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SpendTrend Special Report Update | Coronavirus Impact on … · 2020-06-25 · SpendTrend® Special Report Update | Coronavirus Impact on Consumer Spending SpendTrend ® Special Report