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Spectrum Auction Best Practice Scott McKenzie, Director, Coleago Consulting www.coleago.com ATU Conference Cotonou, Benin 25 th April, 2016

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Page 1: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Spectrum Auction Best Practice

Scott McKenzie, Director, Coleago Consulting www.coleago.com

ATU Conference Cotonou, Benin 25th April, 2016

Page 2: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Since 2001, Coleago has offered a wide range of advisory services to the telecom industry

Strategy and Business Planning

Spectrum and Licences

Due Diligence Improving Network

Performance

Business Transformation

and Cost Reduction

Marketing and Customer

Management Regulation and

Interconnect

Digital Content and Media

Training

2 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 3: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

We are experts in spectrum issues having advised in over 70 awards globally

3

UK 2008-2013 (CCA): Valuation and bid strategy support for 2.6GHz and 800MHz auction. Advocacy support on spectrum caps and floors.

Switzerland 2012 (CCA): Advocacy, valuation and bid strategy for existing spectrum and 2.6GHz as well as 800MHz

Canada 2012-2015 (CCA): Valuation and bid strategy for 700MHz, AWS-3 and 2.5GHz auctions

India 2010 (SMRA): Bid strategy and live auction support for regional BWA

New Zealand 2011/2012: Lobbying auction design and LTE Strategy

Australia 2010-2013: Advocacy, AIP, auction design, valuation and bid strategy

Argentina 2014: Valuation and auction strategy

Russia 2015: Spectrum valuation

Poland 2009: Spectrum valuation

World Bank 2011: Review of international best practice in spectrum allocation

Netherlands 2012 (CCA) : Auction strategy and live auction support

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 4: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

1 Mobile industry evolution

2 Policy objectives, efficiency and uncertainty

3 Competition, licence conditions and pricing

4 Best practice in spectrum management

5 Auction design issues

Agenda

4 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 5: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Mobile industry evolution

5 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 6: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum

GSM l  Not well suited for modern data needs l  Download speed of up to 384 kbps

with EDGE technology

3G HSPA l  Spectral efficiency: 0.7 bits / Hz / cell l  Download speed of 42Mbps

LTE and LTE Advanced l  Spectral efficiency: 1.4 bits / Hz / cell

(possibly twice that for LTE-A) l  Download speed of 150Mbps (300 for

LTE advanced) 6

3G HSPA

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 7: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

How many Gbytes per month per user should operators plan for?

l  How about 1 Gbyte per user per day?

l  What if TV Anywhere Apps really take hold?

7

l  How many hours does the average American watch TV per day?

–  Answer: 2.8 hours

l  How much data volume does this represent per month, assuming HDTV?

–  Answer: 0.7 Terabyte (700 Gigabytes)

l  If just 4-5% of viewing is via LTE, that’s 1 Gbyte per user per day

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 8: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

How many Gbytes per month per user should operators plan for?

Samsung Galaxy S6 l  Quad HD screen, i.e. 4 x normal HD or 2K l  4K will be next

8

YouTube l  4K (Ultra HD) video content is

available now

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 9: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

The battle between operators will be over the user experience in urban environments with high traffic volumes per square kilometre

l  The high spending customers will migrate to the operator which is the least congested and offers the best user experience

l  Spectrum is a key ingredient in delivering the LTE capacity required to keep data traffic moving in a high traffic density environment

l  This is one of the factors explaining the high price paid in the US AWS-3 auction in February 2015 of 2.71 $/MHz/pop

9 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 10: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Mobile broadband is a key ingredient for the development of the digital economy …

l  An increase of 10% in mobile adoption boosts GDP growth by 0.8% (World Bank, 2009)

l  For a given level of total mobile penetration, a 10% substitution from 2G to 3G increases GDP per capita growth by 0.15 % points (Deloitte, 2012)

l  Doubling broadband speeds for an economy can add 0.3% to GDP growth (Arthur D. Little, 2011)

10 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 11: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

There are tangible benefits to society which illustrate the impact of mobile data

l  A significant increase in financial inclusion in countries such as Kenya

l  Healthcare: up to 70% improved compliance for TB

l  10-15% increase in farmer income l  mEducation solutions can significantly

improve the affordability of education by up to 65%

11 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 12: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Existing and new spectrum is required for mobile broadband services

12

700 MHz

1800 MHz

2100 MHz

800/900 MHz

2300 MHz

2600 MHz

New spectrum for LTE, in some markets previously used for TV, referred to as “digital dividend” band

Originally only used for GSM and CDMA, progressive redeployment to 3G HSPA and recently to LTE

Originally only used for GSM, progressive redeployment to LTE

Currently used for 3G, upgrading to dual carrier HSPA+ and LTE

Originally used for WiMax, now a standardised LTE band for capacity

New capacity band for LTE

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 13: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Implications for spectrum management and auctions

Supply of new spectrum l  Focus on making a maximum of spectrum

available for mobile broadband as fast as possible

Assign new spectrum l  Assign new spectrum to mobile operators

to facilitate and encourage rapid deployment of LTE

New technology in existing spectrum l  Ensure that LTE can be deployed in

existing bands

13 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 14: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Policy Objectives, efficiency and uncertainty

14 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 15: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

What is your policy objective?

700MHz auction in Chile in 2014 The 700MHz spectrum award process focused on connectivity and competition policy objectives … l  cover 1,281 rural towns and 500

schools l  obligation to build fibre l  mandated MVNO access and roaming

… rather than extracting money from the mobile industry. l  Auction proceeds amounted to a

relatively small 0.017 $/MHz/pop

15

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 16: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Regulator policy objectives should determine allocation process, auction design and licence conditions

Policy objectives differ between countries l  Maximise immediate revenue generation

from a spectrum auction l  Make spectrum available to mobile

operators as cheaply as possible l  Increase mobile broadband access in

rural and remote areas l  Increase competition l  Introduce new, faster speed services l  Ensure development of a connected

society to deliver long-term economic benefits by making best use of spectrum

l  Promote economic efficiency i.e. create economic value to society

16 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 17: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Spectrum is a highly valuable, natural resource

A valuable national resource l  The benefits of increased mobile

broadband are well documented l  Africa can expect a tsunami of

mobile data growth l  New technology creates greater

capacity from existing spectrum l  Technology alone will not be

sufficient to meet demand l  New spectrum will be required l  A key role for regulators is

ensuring the efficient use of spectrum

17 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 18: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Spectrum has no intrinsic value, investment is required to build networks that extract producer and consumer value from spectrum

l  Spectrum has no intrinsic value. Value is only created through the use of spectrum.

l  Spectrum that lies fallow has no value. l  If operators invest and build networks

which are used, consumer value is created.

l  However, the investment only takes place if producer value is created, i.e. there has to be a return on investment.

l  The return on investment needs to be at least as high as that in an alternative investment of similar risk.

18 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 19: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Mobile operators seek to maximise value creation for their shareholders

Create shareholder value…

…by earning a return above the cost of capital

19

A trivial example l  The pharmaceutical industry

delivers a return of 10% l  The mobile industry delivers a

return of 5% l  Both industries are equally risky l  What would you do with your

cash?

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 20: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Spectrum valuation involves comparing an operator’s Enterprise Value with and without the spectrum

20

Net Present Value with

NPV without

Value

Business value with the new

spectrum

Business value without the new

spectrum

Value of the new spectrum

Approach to Valuing Mobile Spectrum

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 21: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Estimating the Enterprise Value, involves forecasting uncertain cash flows for 15 to 20 years and discounting them back using the cost of capital

21

Now

Ente

rpris

e Va

lue

The Future

$

?

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

? ? ? ? ?

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 22: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

The Weighted Average Cost of Capital or WACC reduces the value of future cash flows to take account of the uncertainty

22

Inject cash as shareholder funds in return for an equity stake or share of the ownership of the business

Borrow from the bank or issue corporate debt

Capital Employed

Debt

60% and 8% Return

Equity

40% and 13% Return

Example: WACC = 60% x 8% + 40% x 13% = 10%

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 23: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

And there is a very high degree of uncertainty associated with valuing spectrum… and these are the “usual” uncertainties

23

Now

Ente

rpris

e Va

lue

The Future

$

?

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

? ? ? ? ?

Inflation

GDP Growth

Exchange Rates

New Technology

Device Diffusion

Usage Competitor’s

Pricing

Impact of OTT players

Commission levels

Wage Inflation

Oil prices

Interest Rates Tax

rates

Political climate

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 24: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Some of the greatest uncertainties that impact spectrum values are often generated by the regulators themselves

24

Now

Ente

rpris

e Va

lue

The Future

$

?

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

? ? ? ? ?

Uncertainty over the prospect of

new market entry

Uncertainty over future spectrum rights and licence conditions

Uncertainty over on-going annual spectrum fees

Uncertainty over when the Digital Dividend will be

available

Outcomes from M&A decisions

Uncertainty over existing and new spectrum renewal

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 25: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Regulators have an incentive to reduce uncertainty and this is a key element of best practice

Reducing uncertainty means l  Mobile operators will have

greater certainty over the value of spectrum

l  Mobile operators will place a higher value on spectrum

l  Mobile operators will not delay or reject investment decisions

l  Greater certainty encourages participation in the assignment process

Benefits for the regulator l  Spectrum is more likely to be

assigned to those that value it most highly

l  Revenues generated from the assignment process may be higher

l  Investment and innovation will be increased

25 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 26: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Competition, licence conditions, and pricing

26 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 27: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Like all industries the mobile sector is passing through the different stages of the industry life cycle

The Industry Life Cycle Curve

How would you classify your market?

27

Time

Indu

stry

Rev

enue

Maturity Decline Growth Introduction

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 28: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Today almost all mobile markets are maturing or in decline

28

Wireless service revenue YoY nominal growth in Q3 2015 by country (in reporting currency terms)

Source: Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix Q1 2016

18 Global Wireless Matrix | 2016-01-21

Chart 9: Wireless service revenue YoY growth in 3Q15 by country (in reporting currency terms)

Company reports and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

23.6%

13

.8%

12.5%

9.6

%

7.3%

7.2

%

7.1%

6.1

%

4.8%

4.7

%

4.6%

3.6

%

2.9%

2.9

%

2.8%

2.8

%

2.5%

2.4

%

1.8%

1.8

%

1.5%

1.4

%

1.2%

1.1

%

1.0%

0.9

%

0.6%

0.4

%

0.3%

-1

.3%

-1.4%

-1

.4%

-1.7%

-1

.8%

-1.9%

-1

.9%

-2.0%

-2

.1%

-2.2%

-2

.2%

-2.5%

-2

.9%

-3.0%

-3

.3%

-3.6%

-5

.4%

-6.7%

-1

1.4%

-1

4.5%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Arge

ntina

Indon

esia

Turke

ySo

uth A

frica

India

Qatar

Egyp

tAl

geria

Cana

daPe

ruBa

nglad

esh

Hong

Kon

gAu

strali

aCh

inaUk

raine

Nige

riaSw

eden

Taiw

anTh

ailan

dJa

pan

New

Zeala

ndBe

lgium

Finlan

dCh

ilePh

ilippin

esFr

ance

Sing

apor

eRu

ssia

UAE

Austr

iaGe

rman

yUK Ita

lyGr

eece

Malay

siaSw

itzer

land US

Braz

ilNo

rway

Portu

gal

Spain

Mexic

oKo

rea

Nethe

rland

sMo

rocc

oCo

lombia

Denm

ark

Israe

lIra

q

Note that real growth rates will be lower © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 29: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Success as a new entrant depends entirely on how mature the market is when you enter it

UK Mobile Market Revenues and Growth

29

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,0001985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Gro

wth

£ M

illio

nsTotal UK mobile industry revenue and growth rates

CAGR 30% CAGR 3%

Prepaid Introduced

Source: Operator accounts, Coleago Analysis

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 30: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

3 in the UK had to “buy” share which is expensive and today has only achieved circa 12% market share after 14 years

3 UK Cumulative Operating Free Cash Flow

Our experience of supporting operators is that new entrant business cases are not viable and very few investors would accept the losses of 3

30

-14,000,000

-12,000,000

-10,000,000

-8,000,000

-6,000,000

-4,000,000

-2,000,000

-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

£ Th

ousa

nds

Three Cumulative Free Cash Flow

Source: Operator accounts, Coleago Analysis

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 31: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Spectrum set-asides and spectrum caps can lead to inefficient outcomes if not designed with great care

Spectrum set-asides and caps are typically designed to prevent excessive spectrum concentration

Best practice should promote competition between incumbents and not discriminate in favour of new entrants

31

Potential impact of auction design Examples

Spectrum is acquired by inefficient users who deploy little and fail to gain market share

Chile AWS auction (2009) Canada AWS (2008)

Spectrum remains unsold and hence the economic value is not extracted

Netherlands 2.6GHz (2010) Belgium 2.6GHz (2011)

Spectrum is not deployed and held for resale at a profit for private investors Canada AWS (2008)

Increased spectrum costs for incumbents damage the operator Netherlands 800MHz (2012)

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 32: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Technical considerations for the efficient use of spectrum

Spectrum packaging is a critical aspects of spectrum awards Factors to be considered are: l  organisation of the lots l  size of each lot l  use of generic or specific lots l  contiguity of lots l  geographical reach of lots

–  regional or national

There may be a trade-off between technical efficiency and competition

32 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 33: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

When spectrum is released, the entire band should be made available at once to provide the widest channels

Auctioning small amounts of spectrum is inefficient l  LTE and LTE Advanced

require an assignment of at least 2x10MHz or 2x20MHz of spectrum per operator to maximise spectral efficiency

33

New spectrum for LTE: More and wider is better

Band MHz 7 (2.6 GHz) 2x70MHz + 40MHz TDD 28 (APT 700) 2x45MHz

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 34: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Ensuring a minimum block size of 2x10MHz is key for the efficient LTE deployment

l  Deploying LTE in 2x15MHz costs around $3,900 per MHz; deploying in only 2x5MHz costs $9,900 per MHz

l  The maximum downlink speed in 15MHz is 112 Mbps compared to only 35 Mbps in 5MHz

l  Potential solutions: –  assign wide enough bands to

individual operators –  Allow spectrum sharing –  Allow spectrum trading

34

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1 Carrier 3 CarriersU

S$

Capex per LTE e-NodeB

eNodeB equipment 5MHz Carrier Cost

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 35: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Technical efficiency also requires that spectrum is contiguous

Potential non-contiguous assignments are a key drawback of some auction designs l  Not technically efficient l  Vulnerable to anti-competitive bidding (e.g. attempt to isolate individual blocks)

35

B1 B2 B2 B2 B2 B1 B1 B3 B3

Example: Bidders B2 and B3 have contiguous assignments, while B1’s assignment is fragmented, thus increasing deployment costs and reducing efficiency

703 MHz & 758 MHz

748 MHz & 803 MHz

APT Band Plan assigned in 2 x 5 MHz blocks

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 36: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Coverage requirements can have a very significant impact on the value of spectrum

Coverage requirements should be clearly stated l  Operators provide coverage which is

commercially viable l  If coverage requirements exceed

commercially viable levels then the value of the spectrum will fall –  resulting in lower revenues from

spectrum assignment l  Efficiency is high when population

densities are high and so geographic coverage requirements will result in less intense use of spectrum

36 © Copyright Coleago 2016

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The cost of spectrum – definition of terms

Spectrum Access Fee The cost of gaining initial access to the spectrum l  Typically a one-off, upfront fee but

increasingly staggered l  Determined through the award process l  The majority of the cost of spectrum

access

Under best practice these should be determined by some form of market mechanism i.e. auction

Spectrum Usage Fee The costs of ongoing spectrum usage l  Typically an annual charge to

ensure ongoing efficiency l  Should be known in advance of

an award l  The higher the usage charge the

lower the spectrum access fee

Under best practice these should be low and related to administrative costs only

37 © Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 38: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Access fees capture the opportunity cost of spectrum for society and so any usage fees should only cover admin costs

A Spectrum Usage Fee per MHz of spectrum: ü Encourages operators to make as

much use of spectrum as possible, i.e. encourages investment

ü Is easily calculated and transparent ü Should only cover the cost of spectrum

management

A Spectrum Usage Fee based on revenue: û Penalises operators who make

efficient use of spectrum û Discourages investment in the

network û Reduces the socio-economic

value of spectrum

38 © Copyright Coleago 2016

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High spectrum costs and new market entry reduced returns below the cost of capital resulting in the withdrawal of capital

Return on Capital Employed for a European Mobile Operator

39

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Return on Capital Employed

Source: Operator accounts, Coleago Analysis

3G auction

© Copyright Coleago 2016

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Extracting high spectrum fees from the mobile industry is not sustainable

40

Demand for Mobile Broadband and Spectrum Need

Up-Front Prices Paid for Spectrum

Licences

LTE Deployment and Backhaul Capex

Network and Spectrum Capex

Revenue

EBITDA

Free Cash Flow

Impact on Operators Balance Sheet

Cash Flow Return on Investment - CFROI

Annual Spectrum Fees

The consequence: The only way to maintain returns is to

reduce investment

Other Opex

minus

minus

minus

equals

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 41: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

Driven by the desire to plug a hole in the budget, Australia set extremely high reserve prices for 700MHz

41

1.28

0.91

0.58

0.49

0.81

0.56

0.88

0.37

0.65

0.73

1.35

- 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40

USA - 2/2008

Germany - 5/2010

Sweden - 3/2011

Spain - 7/2011

Italy - 9/2011

Portugal - 12/2011

France - 12/2011

Denmark - 6/2012

UK - 2/2013

Average 700/800MHz

Australia Reserve…

US$ / MHz / Pop

700/800MHz auction prices paid vs. Australian reserve prices

© Copyright Coleago 2016

Page 42: Spectrum Auction Best Practice - atu-uat.org · New technology enables operators to offer faster services and pass more traffic through a given amount of spectrum GSM ! Not well suited

The Australian APT 700MHz auction resulted in a loss to society and is an example of policy failure due to high reserve

l  Potential socio-economic gain for Australia?

l  Is the spectrum is actually used?

l  Can operators deploy the 700MHz band as cost effectively?

l  Is there competition to drive down prices?

l  Between AU$ 7bn and AU$10bn l  2x15MHz of 2x45MHz unsold

hence not all of the potential socio-economic gain is realised

l  Only Telstra obtained 2x20MHz, can deploy at lowest cost, Optus obtained only 2x10MHz

l  One operator, Vodafone, did not obtain any spectrum and the leading operator Telstra increased its advantage, thus reducing competition

42 © Copyright Coleago 2016

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Ghana and the 2015 auction of 800MHz spectrum

Ghana 2015 800MHz auction l  2 Lots of 2 x 10MHz of 800MHz

offered via auction l  Reserve price of US67.5 million per

Lot l  Existing spectrum not technology

neutral

Failure to achieve policy goals l  MTN secured an LTE monopoly l  Inefficient allocation of spectrum l  Future policy challenges

43 © Copyright Coleago 2016

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Senegal spectrum auction boycott

January 2016 headline “Senegal’s incumbent cellcos ‘boycott’ 4G licence tender; ARTP invites bids from new entrants” l  Reserve price US$ 50 million l  In short, the ARTP is dismayed at what

it acknowledges to be ‘the collective and coordinated non-participation of the operators’

l  The ARTP intends to restart the 4G licensing process, this time opening the call for applications to new entrants…

44 © Copyright Coleago 2016

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Best practice in spectrum management

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The process of awarding mobile spectrum has become more sophisticated over time

Lottery! –  Dentists, actors, hairdressers etc. entered the

lottery for US wireless licences in the early 80s –  Chuck Hagel (ex US Secretary of Defence) was

one of the many who made a fortune this way –  This led to legislation in 1993 mandating the use of

auctions for future FCC licenses

Beauty contests –  Widely used outside the US for GSM licences –  Difficult to administer, bureaucratic –  Open to dispute and vulnerable to corruption

Auctions –  Transparent process (no subjectivity) –  Policy objective: maximise economic efficiency –  Theoretically whoever values spectrum the most

will produce the greatest social good

~1980’s

~1990’s

~2000’s

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Options for spectrum renewal

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Administered renewal to

existing holders

Administered re-assignment (some or all) to new users

Auction rights to existing or new users

Hybrids

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Options for renewal

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Administered renewal to

existing holders

Administered re-assignment (some or all) to new users

Auction rights to existing or new users

Hybrids

–  No major imbalance in spectrum or limited impact on competition –  Spectrum deployed and intensely utilised –  Investment in new technology initiated and on-going –  Customer disruption likely

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Options for renewal

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Administered renewal to

existing holders

Administered re-assignment (some or all) to new users

Auction rights to existing or new users

Hybrids

–  Imbalance in spectrum holdings is affecting competition –  Imbalance cannot be addressed through other bands –  Spectrum not deployed or is under utilised –  Spectrum can be divided and distributed effectively –  Any customer disruption can be managed

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Options for renewal

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Administered renewal to

existing holders

Administered re-assignment (some or all) to new users

Auction rights to existing or new users

Hybrids

–  Spectrum not deployed or under utilised –  Uncertainty over demand or most efficient use –  Desire to avoid making “arbitrary” judgements –  Sufficient competition expected –  Deployment of new technology not started

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A range of approaches have been adopted

Examples of spectrum renewal approaches

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Singapore SMRA Auction

Switzerland CCA Auction

Ireland CCA Auction

Australia Right of First

Refusal

New Zealand Right of First

Refusal

France Administered renewal

and re-assignment

Portugal Administered renewal

Netherlands CCA Auction

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Best practice assignment should focus on efficiency and transparency and be non-discriminatory in relation to bidders

Transparency l  Avoids suggestions of corruption l  Reduces the risk of costly and lengthy legal

challenges l  Promotes participation in the process l  Increases confidence in the regulatory

regime and hence encourages investment

Incorporates effective consultation with stakeholders l  Consultation covering spectrum to be

assigned, draft licence conditions, process and prices –  Typically 4 to 6 weeks

l  Comprehensive and unambiguous Information Memorandum

l  Adequate time for operators to complete their valuation and governance procedures –  Typically 2 to 3 months

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The implementation of a successful assignment process using a simple auction design should not be rushed

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Stage Timing Spectrum Strategy Development Market and Technical Assessment and Assignment Recommendations (e.g. packaging, licence conditions, reserve)

T – 12 Months

Detailed Auction Design and Software Development T – 10 Months Preparation of Draft Information Memorandum T – 8 Months Consultation Process T – 6 Months Information Memorandum Publication, Presentation T – 4 Months Q&A Process T – 3 Months Deadline for Applications and Bidder Deposits T – 15 Days Bidder Training and Mock Auctions T – 5 Days Auction T Results, Payment Deadline and Grant of Licences T + 15 Days

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Auction design issues

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All auction formats have issues

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Auction Format Comments

First price single round sealed bid auction

No opportunity for price discovery and can lead to the winner’s curse

Second price single round sealed bid auction

Winner pays the price of the second highest bidder and therefore reduces risk of the winner’s curse. No opportunity for price discovery which can lead to price discrepancies

Simultaneous Multi-Round Ascending (SMRA) auction

Simple ascending auction gives opportunity for price discovery but aggregation risk* is present as there is no package bidding

SMRA auction with augmented switching

More complex form of SMRA where bidders can in certain circumstances alter bids to reduce aggregation risk*

Combinatorial Clock Auction (CCA) based on second price rule

In theory, economically efficient and avoids aggregation risk* but extremely complex and not very transparent with clock and supplementary rounds. Can lead to major price discrepancies.

* Aggregation risk is the risk that a bidder might win an unprofitable subset of its desired package if there are complements between the lots

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Summary – key characteristics of the two main multi-round auction formats

Design Principle SMRA CCA

Supports simultaneous award of spectrum in multi-bands ✔✔✔ ✔✔✔

Exposure and fragmentation risks ✘ ✔✔✔

Flexibility over the use of specific or generic lots ✔✔ ✔

Transparency of bidders and bids ✔✔✔ ✔✔

Certainty over lots awarded ✔✔✔ ✘

Certainty over prices paid ✔✔✔ ✘

Avoids ‘winners curse’ ✔ ✔✔

Avoids adverse price asymmetries ✔✔✔ ✘

Simplicity and ease of presentation and transparency of results ✔✔ ✘

Promotes all spectrum being sold ✔✔ ✘ 56

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Detailed auction rules may matter more than formats

Rules need to be set to prevent gaming while ensuring that all spectrum is sold efficiently l  Spectrum packaging l  Spectrum caps l  Spectrum set-aside l  Activity rules l  Provision of information l  Bid increments l  Spectrum trading l  Reserve prices

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Further information: www.coleago.com

Contact

Scott McKenzie

Tel: +44 7825 294 576 [email protected]

Director, Coleago Consulting Ltd

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Full summary of best practice

Appendix

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Summary of best practice

Policy objectives l  Set appropriate policy objectives

Competition l  Promoting new entry may not be efficient

Coverage l  Coverage conditions should not be too onerous l  Coverage requirements should not be linked to specific bands l  Consider alternative mechanisms for extending coverage

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Summary of best practice

Technical efficiency considerations l  Maximise the amount of available spectrum l  Allocate available spectrum together rather than artificially ration l  Ensure a minimum channel size of 10MHz for LTE l  Avoid fragmentation of spectrum l  Make spectrum technology neutral

Ensure an efficient assignment of spectrum l  Adopt proportional measure to promote downstream competition l  Allocate spectrum to those that value it most highly

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Summary of best practice

Provide regulatory certainty l  Spectrum rights and obligations should be clearly defined l  Award long / indefinite licence terms with a presumption of renewal l  Ensure predictability about on-going spectrum usage charges l  Regulators actions need to be consistent and predictable l  Provide clarity about the future plans for spectrum release

–  New spectrum should all be awarded at the same time l  Let bidders know if there will be new entry before asking them to bid

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Summary of best practice

Where appropriate auctions should be the preferred award mechanism l  Regulators should use market mechanisms rather than trying to pick winners

when faced with an asymmetry of information l  Spectrum fees should be structured as “sunk costs” to reduce distortions on future

pricing and investment decisions l  Spectrum fees should not be so high as to risk distortions l  Whenever possible auctions should be used to assign spectrum l  Auctions should be designed to be consistent with achieving policy objectives

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Summary of best practice

Avoid single round and sequential auctions l  Single round auctions should be avoided in favour of multi-round formats l  Sequential auctions should be avoided to reduce Substitution and Exposure risk

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Summary of best practice

Market mechanisms should be used to determine spectrum prices l  Regulators should use market mechanisms rather than trying to pick winners

when faced with an asymmetry of information l  Spectrum fees should be structured as “sunk costs” to reduce distortions on future

pricing and investment decisions l  Spectrum fees should not be so high as to risk distortions l  Whenever possible auctions should be used to assign spectrum

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Summary of best practice

Auctions should be designed with great care l  Generic lots should be preferred if appropriate l  National licences should be preferred if appropriate l  Regulators should prefer greater transparency rather than less l  The auction design and rules should be as simple as possible l  The design should seek to minimise the scope for strategic bidding l  When placing a bid there should be a high certainty regarding the lots, price and

expenditure of the bidder

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Summary of best practice

Reserve prices and usage fees should be material but non-trivial l  Spectrum usage fees should be low and relate only to administrative costs of

managing spectrum l  Spectrum access fees should be determined by a market mechanism l  Reserve prices should be low but non-trivial l  Options for phased payments should be provided

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Summary of best practice

Spectrum Renewal l  There should be a presumption of renewal in favour of the incumbents l  An administered process will often be more appropriate l  Some form of Administered Incentive Pricing should be used to determine the

cost of spectrum

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