1

Texas Specialty Crops –Consumer Trends, Trade and

SNAPLuis A. Ribera

Professor and DirectorCenter for North American Studies

Texas A&M University

HHSC Meeting, July 21, 2020

Outline

n Fruit and vegetable consumption trends in the US

n Fruits and Vegetable Supplyn Texas Specialty Cropsn Impact of Covid-19n Resources on SNAP program for Texas

Definition

Specialty Crops are defined in law as “fruits and vegetables, tree nuts, dried fruits and horticulture and nursery crops, including floriculture

Per Capita Consumption 1970-2017

200.00

220.00

240.00

260.00

280.00

300.00

320.00

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Total Fruit

Per Capita Consumption 2000-2017

220.00

230.00

240.00

250.00

260.00

270.00

280.00

290.00

300.00

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fruit Total

Per Capita Consumption 1970-2017

300.0

320.0

340.0

360.0

380.0

400.0

420.0

440.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Vegetable Total

Per Capita Consumption 2000-2017

370.0

380.0

390.0

400.0

410.0

420.0

430.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Vegetable Total

Obesity Trends Among U.S. Adults,1985, 1995, 2005, 2014

Food Pyramid: 1992

My Plate: 2010

US Trade Balance Fruits & Vegetables

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Exports Imports Balance

Billion Dollars

Share of Consumption from Imports

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

vegetables and melons fruits and tree nuts

49%

12%

9%

8%

7%

15%

US Fresh Fruit Imports, 2019$15.1 Billion

MexicoChilePeruGuatemalaCosta RicaOther

20%

18%

16%11%

8%

7%

5%

4%4%

3%1%1%1%1%0%

US Fresh Fruit Imports, 2019

Berries, EX StrawberriesAvocadosBananasGrapesCitrusStrawberriesMelonsPineapplesMangoesOther FruitsApplesKiwi FruitPearsPeachesPlums

70%

18%

3%2%1% 6%

US Fresh Vegetables Imports, 2019$9 Billion

MexicoCanadaPeruGuatemalaChinaOther

25%

19%

11%9%

8%

5%

4%

4%

4%2%

2%2%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%0%

US Fresh Vegetable Imports, 2019

TomatoesPeppersOther VegetablesCucumbersAsparagusOnionsSquashLettuceCauliflower and BroccoliPotatoesGarlicBeansCarrotsPeasCeleryEggplantCabbageOkraRadishes

U.S. Imports of Fresh Produce from Mexicoby Truck, 2007-2027F

261.

0

271.

1

293.

6

329.

4

327.

7

359.

1

374.

2

370.

8 431.

4

463.

8

475.

2

479.

4

497.

7

526.

1

547.

0

568.

0

588.

9

609.

8

630.

8

651.

7

672.

6

20072009

20112013

20152017

20192021F

2023F2025F

2027F

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

1,000 40,000 Lb. Truckloads

Texas ArizonaCalifornia New Mexico

Source: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA and Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University2020-2027 Forecast based on 2007-2019 Model

Value of Texas Fruits, Vegetables & Nuts

Crop Value ($1,000)Vegetables 339,576$ Watermelons 87,567$ Food Corn 34,610$ Melons 5,063$

Total 466,817$

Crop Value ($1,000)Pecans 131,230$ Grapefruit 72,897$ Grapes 55,761$ Oranges 34,735$ Peaches 21,722$ Blueberries 5,311$ Blackberies 3,651$ Other Fruit 3,184$ Plums 149$

Total 328,640$

Impacts of COVID-19 to Texas Specialty Crops

19

n Typically producers sell 40% to retail, 40% food service & 20% other

n Retail demand went up 15%, but other outlets were lost

n Items carried by grocery stores were reduced

n Reported 20-50% orders cancelled

Potential Impacts of Increase SNAP Funding

20

n Biggest barrier is lack of data on SNAP purchases

n Here’s a SNAP purchases study done in 2011

n About 15% of purchases are F&V, but includes frozen french fries and tomato sauce

Potential Impacts of Increase SNAP Funding

Potential Impacts of Increase SNAP Funding

23

n Double Up Food Bucks something to keep in mind (more info here)

n Double the value of SNAP (Lone Star Cards) spent on produce at participating farmers’ markets and grocery stores

n Domestic produce is not available year-round

n Also redemption rate is very low

Potential Impacts of Increase SNAP Funding

24

n From Industry:q Big help for us

q Approval of online purchases will help a lot

q Stay away from packaging requirements such as in WIC

q Pressure on USDA-AMS to apply more section 32 to Texas specialty crops

Luis A. RiberaProfessor and Extension EconomistTexas A&M AgriLife Extension Servicelribera@tamu.eduPhone: 979-845-3070

@cnastamu1

Questions