Spatial Decision Support and GIS

NCGIA Core CurriculumUnit 127 - Spatial Decision Support Systems

by Jacek Malczewski, Department of Geography, University of Western Ontario, Canada

Using GIS

• GIS and computers can synthesize data and perform analysis and modeling

• But PEOPLE make decisions!

• How can GIS be used as part of the decision-making process?

• Decisions can be top down (managers) or bottom-up (public participation)

A US ideal: Freedom of Speech

Spatial Decision Problems

 The main characteristics of spatial decision problems include: – Many alternatives, – Consequences of the decision alternatives are spatially variable – Each alternative is evaluated on the basis of multiple criteria, – Some of the criteria are qualitative others quantitative– More then one decision maker (or interest group) involved in  the

decision-making process– Decision makers have different preferences on evaluation

criteria and decision consequences– Decisions are often surrounded by uncertainty

– NIMBYism etc.

Tampa Bay RegionTampa Bay Region

Emergency ManagementDecision Support GIS

For the

Emergency ManagementDecision Support GIS

For the

EmergencyManagementEmergency

Management

• Domestic preparedness• Vulnerability Assesments• Mitigation planning• Training• Incident management• Recovery

• Domestic preparedness• Vulnerability Assesments• Mitigation planning• Training• Incident management• Recovery

Storm Categories

Storm Categories

Cat 3 Hurri

cane

Input Wind Radii

Identify Parcels

Notify Owners

Assess Damage

Plot Storm Track

RVAM

Notify NowExtreme Risk Property Owners

Assess FutureGrowth Scenarios

Future Growth Losses

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Input Wind Radii

Identify Parcels

Notify Owners

Assess Damage

Assess FutureGrowth Scenarios

Plot Storm Track

RVAMAssess NowRisk Damage Assessment

Parcels Affected

$ Building Loss Estimate

Extreme

High

Moderate

5299

5343

7167

1,964,336,700

1,830,798,900

591,793,600

Extreme100% Loss

High75% Loss

Moderate50% Loss

Assessment Complete

12,382,300

7,564,900

Save Resultsand Exit?

Yes NoYes No

Historical Background

• Decision Support System (DSS) based on work by Herbert A. Simon in 1950s and 1960s (Simon 1960);

• DSS evolved  during the 1970s and 80s • SDSS concept has evolved in parallel• IBM's Geodata Analysis and Display System 1970s

earliest large DSS • SDSS has been associated with the need to expand the

GIS capabilities for complex, ill-defined, spatial decision problems

• Major growth in research, development, and applications of SDSS in the last 10 years

• Many threads with different, but related names, such as collaborative SDSS, group SDSS, environmental DSS, spatial knowledge based and expert systems, PPGIS

The Decision-making Process

• Simon divides any decision-making process into the phases of decision-making – intelligence - is there a problem or an

opportunity for change? – design - what are the decision alternatives? – choice -  which alternative is best?

Simon’s Model

Planning Stages

• Problems• Goals• Objectives• Alternatives• Evaluations• Choice• Implementation• Monitoring

Planning Methods

• SWOT• Bargaining• Brainstorming• DELPHI• Scenario writing• Consensus building• Public meeting support• Charrette• Consultants• Stakeholder involvement• Outreach

Example: CommunityViz

GIS and Decision Support

• GISystems have limited capabilities to support the design and choice phases of the decision-making process

• GIS provides a static modeling environment , reducing their scope as decision support tools

• Especially so in the context of problems involving collaborative decision-making

What is SDSS?

• SDSS is  an interactive, computer-based system designed to support a user or group of users in achieving a higher effectiveness of decision making while solving a semi-structured spatial decision problem;

• The three terms (semi-structured spatial problems, effectiveness, and decision support) capture the essence of the SDSS concept

Components of SDSS

• Data Base Management System contains the functions to manage the geographic data base

• Model Base Management System contains the functions to manage the model base;

• Dialog Generation and Management System manages the interface  between the user and the rest of the system.

DSS Tools• Procedural programming languages and code libraries (e.g.,

VB, AML, Avenue, TransCAD - Caliper Script macro language, MapInfo - MapBasic);

• Visual progamming language (e.g. STELLA, Cantata and Khoros);

• Inter-application communication software (e.g. dynamic data exchange (DDE), object linking (OLE), open database connectivity (ODBC));

• Simulation languages and software (e.g. SIMULINK, SIMULA); • Application programming interfaces (API) (e.g. the IBM's

geoManager API, Java Advanced Imaging API, TransCAD's API);

• Applets  (e.g. GISApplet,  Microsoft Visual J++), • Visual interfaces, graphics and color subroutines (e.g.

graphical user interfaces – GUI, OpenGL, SVG, etc.)

DSS Generator

• Package of related hardware and software which provides a set of capabilities to quickly and easily build a specific SDSS

• GISystems (e.g. ARC/INFO, ArcView, ARCNetwork, Spatial Analyst, MapObjects LT, GRASS, IDRISI, MapInfo, TransCAD)

• Database packages  (e.g. dBase, Access, Paradox); • Decision analysis and optimization software (e.g. LINDO,

EXPERT CHOICE, LOGICAL DECISION); • Statistical and geostatistical software (e.g. S-PLUS,

SPSS, SAS); • Simulation (e.g. Spatial Modeling Environment)

Specific DSS• Systems devoted to the analysis of a particular

set of decision problems• Support decision makers in tackling semi-

structured problems• Active Response Geographic Information

System• IDRISI Decision Support• GeoMed• Spatial Group Choice• winR+GIS Spatial Decision Support• CommunityVis

Example: Nuclear power

Since December, 1942: 130 sites

Source: www.prop1.org/ 2000/noflymap.htm

77,000 tons of highly toxic wastethat will be radioactive for hundreds of thousands

of years

Where is it now? Wet and dry

Source: www.aecl.ca

50 years of decision-making

• 1957 NRC report recommended burying the waste in a permanent repository

• Need a “safe” site for 77,000 tons of highly radioactive waste

• Safe means stable for at least 10,000 years as measured by radionuclides in surface and ground water downstream

• Need a stable place, free from hazards• Storage-movement-disposal issues• No solution in spite of 1982 act (DOE by 1998).• Single site eventually chosen

Yucca Mountain, NV

Problem 1: The journey to Yucca Mt.

Problem 2: Burial

Yucca Mountain Waste Repository

What is the radionuclide travel time from the repository to the water table?

Question addressed through modeling

• Conceptual model selection

• Calibration• Predictions

UZ Travel Time Predictions: 1995-2003

Effective Continuum

• Fractures and matrix assumed to be in pressure equilibrium

• Calibration yielded water perc. rates of 0.01 to 0.1 mm/y, dry fractures

• Travel times to water table of about 350,000 years

Dual Permeability• Fractures can flow even

when matrix is unsaturated

• Calibration could be attained with more reasonable perc. rates of 5 mm/y

• Travel times to water table of 10’s to 100’s of years possible!

Early models Current modelsData collection, revised conceptual model, computational model advances

Conceptual model uncertainty is critical to assessment of overall system uncertainty

Cl-36 Observations Confirm Rapid Transport Pathways

100

1000

10000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

ESF Distance (m)M

ea

su

red

36 C

l/C

l (x

10-1

5)

Bomb-Pulse~ Bomb-Pulse

BackgroundFaults

100

1000

10000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

ESF Distance (m)M

ea

su

red

36 C

l/C

l (x

10-1

5)

Bomb-Pulse~ Bomb-Pulse

BackgroundFaults

Atmospheric fallout from nuclear weapons testing (1950’s and 1960’s) is present in fluid 200-300 m below ground surface. Fault zones appear to be the pathway.

Source: Fabryka-Martin et al., 1997, YMP Milestone SP2224M3

Key Attributes of Repository Safety Strategy

Limited Water Contacting Waste Package

Long Waste Package Lifetime

Slow Release From Waste Package

Low Concentration of Radionuclides in Groundwater

Tpt

ClimatePrecipitation

UnsaturatedZone Flow

Infiltration

1

2

3

Tcp

Tcp

GDF

Tcp

From

Mountain Crest

to Repository

~ 1,000 feet

Drift Cross Section

Waste Form Degradation

Radionuclide Mobilization Through Engineered Barrier System Transport

Thermal Hydrology Drift Scale

Near-Field Geo-chemical Environment

Unsaturated Zone Flow

Seepage

Waste Package Degradation

4

5

6

Saturated Zone Flow

andTransport

Unsaturated Zone Flow

and Transport

TcpTcp

~ 20 kmAmargosa Valley

Water Well Pathway

Saturated Zone WATER TABLE

9

Biosphere

Water

Plants

Animals

People

7

8

From

Repository

to Water Table

~ 1,000 feet

The Yucca Mountain Decision Model Framework

Many unknowns

• Will there be new faults and fractures in the next 100,000 years?

• Will the local tectonics remain inactive?

• Who will be there to notice in 12,005AD?

• What language do you write the warning notice in?

• [etc]

Current YMP Total System Model “Overview”

Can such a model be “understood” by anyone besides the developer?

Problem N: Controversy

DOE Admits Yucca Mt. Safety Information May Have Been Lied AboutMarch 17, 2005, 04:25 PM  It's being called a devastating blow to the Yucca Mountain Project -- some of the government's scientific data may have been faked. Workers on the proposed nuclear waste dump are under investigation for lying about their research -- meaning the "sound science" President Bush said he was following might be wrong

Summary

• SDSS has been defined as an interactive, computer-based system designed to support a user or group of users in achieving a higher effectiveness of decision making while solving a semi-structured spatial decision problem

• The SDSS concept is based on the DDM (dialog, data, model) paradigm; a well-design SDSS should have balance among the three capabilities.

• There are three sets of technologies for building an SDSS: the DSS development tools, the DSS generators, and specific SDSS

• The DSS tools facilite the development of specific SDSS or they can be configured into a DSS generator which in turn can be used to build a variety of specific SDSS.