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Space Weather Data and Observations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Terrance G Onsager and Rodney ViereckNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center
Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting
2
Challenge: Predicting the Impacts of the Sun’s Activity
Space Weather Information Needs
Information timeliness:• Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days)• Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm)• Alerts and Specifications (current conditions)
Space Weather Category:• X-ray flares• Solar energetic particle events• Radiation belt electron enhancements• Geomagnetic storms• Ionospheric disturbances• Neutral density variations
Long-Term Forecast (1- >3 days)
Short-Term Forecasts and Warnings (<1 day)
Nowcasts and Alerts
Flare Products
Energetic Particle
Products
Geomag Activity
Products
Iono and Atmo
Products
Status of Current Space Weather Products
M-flare and X-flare Probabilities
M-flare and X-flare Probabilities
X-ray Flux – Global and Regional
Proton and Electron Radiation
Probabilities
Proton and Electron Radiation – Global
and Regional
Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities
Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities –
Global and Regional
Geomagnetic Activity – Global and
Regional
Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbance Probabilities
Disturbance Probabilities –
Global and Regional
Ionospheric and Atmospheric
Disturbances – Global and Regional
Proton and Electron Radiation
Probabilities
L1
NASA ACE
ESA SOHO
Continuous data reception from the ACE satellite is
necessary for real-time alerts of solar storms
● German Aerospace Center● European Space Agency
● National Institute of Information and Communication Technology, Japan
● Radio Research Agency, Korea
● NOAA● NASA● U.S. Air Force
•DSCOVR (NOAA/NASA/DOD)
– Solar wind composition, speed, and direction
– Magnetic field strength and direction
Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting
6
NOAA POES
NOAA GOES
NASA ACE
ESA/NASA SOHO
L1•ACE (NASA)
–Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles–Vector Magnetic field
•SOHO (ESA/NASA)–Solar EUV Images–Solar Corona (CMEs)
•GOES (NOAA)–Energetic Particles–Magnetic Field–Solar X-ray Flux–Solar EUV Flux–Solar X-Ray Images
•POES (NOAA)–High Energy Particles–Total Energy Deposition–Solar UV Flux
•Ground Sites–Magnetometers–Riometers and Neutron monitors–Telescopes and Magnetographs–Ionosondes–GNSS
NASA STEREO(Ahead)
NASA STEREO(Behind)
•STEREO (NASA)–Solar Corona–Solar EUV Images–Solar wind –Vector Magnetic field
Challenge: Coordinating Our Worldwide Data Resource
Space-based and ground-based observations of the Sun-Earth environment are being made around
the globe
•COSMIC II (Taiwan/NOAA)
– Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles
– Ionospheric Scintillation
• L1 Measurements– Solar wind
• Density, speed, temperature, energetic particles
– Vector Magnetic Field
• The most important set of observations for space weather forecasting– Integral part of the daily forecast process
– Provides critical 30-45 minute lead time for geomagnetic storms
– Used to drive and verify numerous models
• L1 Measurements– Solar wind
• Density, speed, temperature, energetic particles
– Vector Magnetic Field
• The most important set of observations for space weather forecasting– Integral part of the daily forecast process
– Provides critical 30-45 minute lead time for geomagnetic storms
– Used to drive and verify numerous models
NOAA’s FY 2011 Budget
8
Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Solar Wind Mission
• The DSCOVR spacecraft will be refurbished and readied for launch in December 2013
• Satellite and sensors will be transferred to NOAA• Refurbishment of satellite and Plas-Mag sensor will be
performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement by NOAA
• USAF plans to begin acquiring a launch vehicle in 2012• All data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar
Wind Network (RTSWnet)• DSCOVR Earth science sensors are in the process of
being refurbished• A commercial partner will be solicited for the mission
to help evaluate the potential of commercial service for a follow-on mission
Compact Coronagraph (CCOR)
• NOAA and the Naval Research Laboratory are currently collaborating on a Phase A study for a demonstration compact coronagraph
• A reimbursable project for sensor development will begin at NRL in FY11• CCOR is a reduced mass, volume, and cost coronagraph design
– 6 kg telescope, 17 kg for sensor– Optical train is 1/3 the length of traditional coronagraph designs
• CCOR will fly on DSCOVR if schedule permits– CCOR has been submitted to the DoD Space Test Program (STP) for flight as a back-up
strategy if necessitated by schedule
COSMIC Follow On (COSMIC 2)
• COSMIC begins to degrade in 2011 (end of life)• Significant data reduction expected by 2014-2015 due to loss of satellites• President’s budget supports initial launch of COSMIC 2 in 2014• Proposed partnership with Taiwan –
– Taiwan to provide: 12 spacecraft and integration of payloads onto spacecraft, ground system command & control
– NOAA to provide: 12 payloads (receivers), 2 launches, ground system data processing
– System will provide 8000+ worldwide atmospheric and 10-12,000 ionospheric soundings per day (all weather, uniform coverage over oceans and land)
• Commercial data purchase for enhancement/gap coverage under consideration
Observed TEC Rays in 12-hour period (COSMIC)
13
GOES Update: Successful Launch of GOES O and P
EARTH’S MAGNETOSPHERE
GOES 11/12/13/14/15 IN GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT
MOON
ABOUT 1 % OF THE DISTANCE FROM THE EARTH TO THE SUN, ACE IS OUR SPACE WEATHER SENTINEL.
EARTH
GOES 15 2010 90W XRS/SXI (Storage) GOES 14 2009 106W StorageGOES 13 2006 75W MAG/EPSGOES 12 2001 60W South AmericaGOES 11 2000 135W Secondary Ops
GOES-R
MPS-low: electrons/ions 30eV-30 keV 15 bands, 12 look directions
MPS-hi:electrons 55 keV-4MeV 10 bands, 5 look directionsProtons 80keV-3.2 MeV 9 bands ,5 look directions
SGPSProtons 1-500 MeV, 10 channels, 2 directions
EHIS10-200 MeV/nucleon, 4 mass groups, 1 look direction
MagnetometerStatus
Just finished instrument CDRLaunch expected in 2015Developing level 2 algorithms
Integral fluxDensity and Temperature momentsEvent detectionMagnetopause Crossings
New GEO particle product
SEAESRTImplements O’Brien et al. 2009 anomaly
hazard quotientsSurface Charging
Based on KpInternal Charging
Based on GOES >2 MeV electron fluxSingle Event Upsets
Based on GOES >30 MeV proton fluxTotal Dose
Based on GOES >5 MeV proton fluxPublicly available 2010
Solar Ultra-Violet Imager (SUVI)
SOHO EIT images currently used as a proxy for SUVI data:•comparable resolution•slower cadence•incomplete spectral coverage
SOHO EIT images currently used as a proxy for SUVI data:•comparable resolution•slower cadence•incomplete spectral coverage
SDO AIA provides improved proxy data: •16X as many pixels as SUVI•Higher cadence•image in 8 EUV bands, 5 of which match SUVI exactly
SDO AIA provides improved proxy data: •16X as many pixels as SUVI•Higher cadence•image in 8 EUV bands, 5 of which match SUVI exactly
Completely Different than GOES NOP: • GOES NOP SXI observes in x-rays (0.6-6 nm) • SUVI will observe in the Extreme Ultra-Violet (EUV) (10-30 nm)
Narrow band EUV imaging: Permits better discrimination between features of different temperatures• 30.4 nm band adds capability to detect filaments and their eruptions• 6 wavelengths (9.4, 13.1, 17.1, 19.5, 28.4, and 30.4 nm) 2 minute refresh for full dynamic range
SUVI will provide• Flare location information (Forecasting event arrival time and geo-effectiveness)• Active region complexity (Flare forecasting)• Coronal hole specification (High speed solar wind forecasting)
SDO AIA 30.4 nm
GOES R EUVS Improvements
17
GOES NOP observed 3 (or 5) broad spectral bands•No spectral information•Difficult to interpret•Impossible to build
GOES NOP observed 3 (or 5) broad spectral bands•No spectral information•Difficult to interpret•Impossible to build
EUVS-A Channel
EUVS-B Channel
EUVS-C Channel
25.6 nm28.4 nm30.4 nm
117.5 nm121.6 nm133.5 nm140.5 nm
275 - 285 nm278.5 nm
GOES R EUVS will take a different approach•Observe three spectral regions with three small spectrometers•Measure the intensity of critical solar lines from various parts of the solar atmosphere•Model the rest of the solar spectrum scaling each spectral line to the ones observed from the same region of the solar atmosphere.
GOES R EUVS will take a different approach•Observe three spectral regions with three small spectrometers•Measure the intensity of critical solar lines from various parts of the solar atmosphere•Model the rest of the solar spectrum scaling each spectral line to the ones observed from the same region of the solar atmosphere.
Three GOES R EUVS Spectrometers
GOES 14 Broad Bands
Continuing LEO Space Weather Programs
• Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS): – SEMS will be continued through the end of the
POES, DMSP, and Metop C– Solar Irradiance measurements are planned,
energetic particle measurements are not planned
• Advanced Forecasting for Ensuring Communications Through Space (AFFECTS)
• Participants: Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway, United States• Coordinator: Dr. Volker Bothmer, Georg-August-Universität, Germany
Develop a forecasting and early-warning system to mitigate ionospheric effects on navigation and communication systems
- Coordinated analysis of space-based and ground-based measurements
- Development of predictive models of solar and ionospheric disturbances
- Validation of forecast system
• Coordination Action for the Integration of Solar System Infrastructures and Science (CASSIS)
• Participants: United Kingdom, Belgium, Switzerland, France, United States• Coordinator: Dr. Robert Bentley, University College London
Improve the interoperability of data and metadata to enhance the dissemination and utility of data across interdisciplinary boundaries.
Seventh Framework Cooperation
• Incoherent Scatter Radar provide key data for scientific understanding and to develop and drive data-assimilation models of the Earth-Space system
• Modern ISR also allow continuous, real-time data acquisition that can drive operational models to protect our economic and security infrastructures
• Recommendation is to broaden the ISR user community to foster interdisciplinary science across the full Earth-Space environment and explore contribution to operational space weather applications
Transatlantic EU-U.S. Cooperation in the Field of Research Infrastructures
AO1962
JRO1963
MH1962
SRF1982
AO1962
JRO1963
MH1962
SRF1982
AMISR-Poker Flat
PFR 2007
AO1962
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PFR 2007
RISR-N,S 2011
Space Weather in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE WEATHERA REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL SCOPE, COST AND BENEFIT OFA WMO ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONALCOORDINATION OF SPACE WEATHER SERVICES, PREPAREDFOR THE SIXTIETH EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
April 2008
Motivation for WMO:
• Space Weather impacts the Global Observing System and the WMO Information System
• Space Weather affects important economic activities (aviation, satellites, electric power, navigation, etc.)
• Synergy is possible with current WMO meteorological services and users, such as sharing observing platforms and issuing multi-hazard warnings
• Several WMO Members have Space Weather with Hydro-Met Agency
• Effective partnership with International Space Environment Service
Inter-Programme Coordination Team for Space Weather
Membership:- Belgium- Brazil- Canada- China (Co-chair)- Colombia- European Space Agency- Ethiopia- Finland- Japan- International Civil Aviation Organization- Int’l Space Environment Service- International Telecommunication Union- UN Office of Outer Space Affairs- Russian Federation- United Kingdom- United States (Co-chair)
WMO Programmes:- Aeronautical Meteorology Programme- Space Programme
Terms of Reference:
- Standardization and enhancement of Space Weather data exchange and delivery through the WMO Information System (WIS)
- Harmonized definition of end-products and services – including quality assurance and emergency warning procedures
- Integration of Space Weather observations, through review of space- and surface-based requirements, harmonization of sensor specifications, monitoring observing plans
- Encouraging research and operations dialog
Officially established: 3 May 2010
• Space weather research and forecasting require coordinated observations from around the globe
• ACE follow-on (DSCOVR) is moving forward. Coronagraph is uncertain on DSCOVR. Globally distributed antennas, with backups, are required.
• Upgraded geosynchronous measurements will soon be available, some LEO capabilities will be lost, next-generation radio-occultation is anticipated.
• International partnerships are increasingly important, and progress is being made.
Summary