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Space Science in JAXA

May 15, 2017Saku Tsuneta, PhD

JAXA Vice PresidentDirector General, Institute of Space and Astronautical Science

Planet Earth taken by Hayabusa-2

2017 IAA Planetary Defense Conference, May 15-19, Tokyo1

Brief Introduction ofSpace Science in JAXA

Introduction of ISAS and JAXA • As a national center of space science & engineering research,

ISAS carries out development and in-orbit operation of space science missions with other directorates of JAXA.

• ISAS is an integral part of JAXA, and has close collaboration with other directorates such as Research and Development andHuman Spaceflight Technology Directorates.

• As an inter-university research institute, these activities are intimately carried out with universities and research institutes inside and outside Japan. ISAS always seeks for international collaboration.

• Space science missions are proposed by researchers, and incubated by ISAS. ISAS plays a strategic role for mission selection primarily based on the bottom-up process, considering strategy of JAXA and national space policy. 3

HAYABUSA 2003-2010Asteroid Explorer

AKARI(ASTRO-F)2006-2011Infrared Astronomy

KAGUYA（SELENE)2007-2009Lunar Exploration

SUZAKU(ASTRO-E2)2005-X-Ray Astronomy

M-V Rocket

AKATSUKI 2010-Venus Meteorogy

Hisaki 2013Planetary atmosphere

HINODE(SOLAR-B)2006-Solar Observation

IKAROS 2010Solar Sail

JAXA recent science missions

HAYABUSA2 2014-2020Asteroid Explorer

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ARASE 2016-Van Allen belt

Technology drivenLeads and creates space

science programs

Science drivenStimulates and encourages

new technology development

Close ties between space science and space technology

Space Science DivisionsSpace Astronomy Astrophysics

Solar System ScienceInterdisciplinary Space Science

Space Technology DivisionsSpace Flight Systems

Spacecraft Engineering

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The First Interplanetary Micro-Spacecraft

PROCYONLaunched on Dec 3rd, 2014

Development

Spacecraft-SystemWeight 65 kgSize 550 mm×550 mm×670 mmComponentsPower SAP×4Attitude RW×4, NSAS×5, FOG×3, STT×1Communication XTRP (X-Band Transponder),

GaN SSPA (Soid State Power Amplifier)VLBITX (Tone Signal Generator for VLBI Navigation)

Propulsion Ion Thruster×1 (for Deep Space Maneuver)Cold-Gas Thruster×8

(for Reaction Control System and Trajectory Correction Maneuver)Mission Telescope×2

(for Asteroid Observation and Geocorona Observation)

Mission

AchievementsDemonstration of 50 kg-Class Deep Space Exploration Micro-Spacecraft Bus System Success

Miniature Ion Thruster and Cold-Gas Thrusters System SuccessHigh-Effieciency GaN SSPA SuccessVLBI Navigation Technology Success

Geocorona Observation Success

Address : funase@space.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp (Ryu FUNASE)

The University of Tokyo and JAXA

Demonstration of 50 kg-Class Deep Space Exploration Micro-Spacecraft Bus SystemMiniature Ion Thruster and Cold-Gas Thrusters SystemHigh-Effieciency GaN SSPAVLBI Navigation Technology

Geocorona ObservationClose Flyby Observation of Near Earth Asteroid

CG by Go MIyazaki

Geocorona ObservationPROCYON/LAICA

• Neutral hydrogen geo-corona observed by Lyman Alpha Imaging CAmera (LAICA) onboard PROCYON at 15 million km (0.1 AU) from the Earth

• 2-D image since 1972 (Apollo 16) with wide FOV

~400,000 km

Apollo 16[Carruthers et al., 1976]

Geocoronal emission (in Rayleigh) on Jan 9, 2015

Rikkyo U.

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Recent accomplishments HAYABUSA & IKAROS

Led by JAXA Lunar & Planetary Exploration Program Group 8

Japan's Contribution to Spaceguard

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Asteroid missions• Hayabusa

Explored a small S-type NEO (25143) Itokawa

• Hayabusa2Will explore a small C-type NEO (162173) Ryugu

Observations• Bisei Spaceguard Center• Groundbased telescopes (Subaru etc)• APAON（Asia-Pacific Asteroid Observation

Network）

Hayabusa changed concept of small NEOs

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The structure of Itokawa is “Rubble Pile” 0.535×0.294×0.209 km

before after

This is important from the point of spaceguard

Itokawa

Hayabusa 2 mission

1/5

falcon

hayabusa

Hayabusa2-OSIRIS-REx collaboration in operation

ISAS/JAXA HAYABUSA2 mission• Launched: 2014, arrival:2018, departure: 2019,

return: 2020• Earth swing-by completed in Dec 2015 on its way for

arrival at Ryugu in 2018NASA OSIRIS-Rex mission• Launch: 2016, arrival:2018, departure: 2021,

return: 2023• Target: BENNUSample & return is regarded as a high-risk mission and the collaboration including sample-exchange serves as

a means for insurance for both science teams. 11

Mission Scenario of Hayabusa2

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Impactor collides with the asteroid

Sample will be obtained from the newly createdcrater

Launch

The spacecraft observes the asteroid,releases the small rovers and the lander,and executes multiple samplings.

Earth Return

Sample analysis03 Dec. 2014 June-July 2018

2019

Nov.-Dec. 2020

New Experiment

Nov.-Dec. 2019 : Departure

Arrival at Ryugu03 Dec. 2015

Earth swing-by

Future Space Science in JAXA

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2010 2020 2030

Hisaki(2013)

SPICA (~2028)

BepiColombo (ESA, 2018)

SLIM(2020) DESTINY(2022)

#5(2024)

ERG (2016)

X-ray Recovery (2020)

JUICE (ESA, 2022)

ATHENA(ESA, ~2028) WFIRST(NASA, ~2025)

MMX(2024)LiteBIRD, Solar-Sail (~2027)

Strategic Large Missions (300-350M$ class) for JAXA-led flagship science mission with HIIA or H3 vehicle (3 in ten years)

Competitively-chosen medium-sized focused missions (<150M$ class) with Epsilon rocket(every 2 year)

Missions of opportunity for foreign agency-led mission

Space Policy Commission under cabinet office intends to guarantee predetermined steady

annual budget for space science and exploration to maintain its scientific activities

(Notional) 14

Large-size #3Lite BIRD or

Solar Power Sail Trojan asteroids

Strategic L-class missions with HIIA/H3

#4 ESA-Led SPICA

#2 Martian MoonseXplorer (MMX)

#1 X-ray astronomyRecovery mission

Strategic Large Missions (300M$ class) for JAXA-led flagship science mission with HIIA/H3 vehicle (3 in ten years)

FY2020

FY2024

FY2027

FY2028

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AO for M-Class #5 soon announced

Competitive M-class missions with Epsilon

#3 Moon landing (SLIM)

#2 van Allen belt (ERG)

#1 Hisaki(UV planet)Competitively-chosen

medium-sized focused missions (<150M$ class) with Epsilon rocket(every 2 year)

FY2022

#4 3200 Phaethon flyby (DESTINY)

FY2020

FY2016

FY2013 16

MMX JAXA’s exploration of the two moons of Mars with sample return from Phobos

JAXA’s mission to the Martian moons (MMX) will make close-up remote

sensing and insitu observations of both moons, and return samples from Phobos.

ISAS Minor Body Exploration StrategyOutside the snow line

The Rocky Planet Region

Comet(water in the form of ice)

Martian Moons（Fossil of water delivery capsule）

Primordial asteroids(Water in hydrated minerals)

Jupiter Trojans(Missing link between comets and asteroids)

Dust ejecting bodies(Organic compound

Transport via dust particles)

ROSETTA (ESA)Credit: ESA/ATG medialab

Solar Power Sail(under study)

LUCY (NASA, selected)

HAYABUSA2OSIRIS-Rex（NASA）

Martian Moons eXploration（MMX）

DESTINY＋

(under study)

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BepiColomboMMO(ESA-led)

Martian MoonseXplorer(MMX)(JAXA-led)

Asteroid Sample ReturnHayabusa, Hayabusa2 (JAXA-led)

JUICE(ESA -led)

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SLIM Moon landing(JAXA-led)

ISAS Planetary science 2020sLead sample & return

Solar-power sail to Jupiter Trojan asteroids (JAXA-led) under assessment

SPICA(ESA-led)

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?Foreign agency-led

Large missions#3 Athena (ESA)

#2 Jupiter Icy moons JUICE (ESA)

#1 Bepi-Colombo(ESA)

FY2018

FY2022

FY2028

Missions of opportunity for foreign agency-led mission 20

AKARI FIS-FTS

JWST/MIRI

Lim

iting

Lin

e Fl

ux (5σ-

1hr)

/ W

m-2 10-16

10-18

10-17

10-19

100 100020 200 350Wavelength / µm

2010's

ESA-JAXA SPICA Sensitivity Dramatic improvement

×100 Improvement

AKARI IRC

SPICA2020's

ALMA

10-20

10

10-15

SPICA/SAFARIR=25000

R=300

SOFIA

HERSCHEL

Spitzer

R=3000

Baseline specifications Telescope : 2.5 m aperture

cooled <8 K Core wavelength: 17–230 mm Orbit : S-E L2 Halo Orbit Launcher : JAXA H3 Vehicle Launch Year : 2027–2028

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SPICA’s challenge to reveal the history of our solar system and its analogs

Big Questions – When and how does gas evolve from primordial

discs into emerging planetary systems? – How do ices and minerals evolve in the planet

formation era, as seed for Solar Systems? • SPICA’s approaches

– Detailed study of proto-planetary and debris discs in extra-solar systems to shed light on the history of our Solar System

– Observations of planets and minor bodies in our own Solar System to characterize the early solar system and its evolution to the current system. 22

SPICA’s challenge to reveal the history of our own Solar System

• Characterization of the early solar system: comets– SPICA will make systematic observations of the D/H ratio of comets, the most

primitive bodies in the Solar System, and thereby quantify the original water characteristics in the early Solar System.

• Evolution of the solar system: trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs)– SPICA will detect hundreds of the trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), which are

expected to bear an unaltered record of the formation and evolution of the outer Solar System, and infer their composition by measuring their sizes and albedos.

• Evolution to planets: planetary atmospheres– SPICA will have resolution ten times better than those of previous exploration

missions in the mid-infrared, which contains key features of critical molecules, and will reveal detailed composition and structure of planetary atmospheres. 23

Outside the snow line

The Rocky Planet Region

Comet(walter in the form of ice)

Martian Moons（Fossil of water delivery capsule）

Primordial asteroids(Water in hydrated minerals)

Jupiter Trojans(Missing link between comets and asteroids)

Dust ejecting bodies(Organic compound

Transport via dust particles)

ROSETTA (ESA)Credit: ESA/ATG medialab

Solar Power Sail(under study)

LUCY (NASA, selected)

HAYABUSA2OSIRIS-Rex（NASA）

Martian Moons eXploration（MMX）

DESTINY＋

(under study)

SPICAInfrared Astronomy

Outer to main-belt asteroids

ISAS Minor Body Exploration Strategy

(revised)

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Collision Probability and Damage

• Size of 10m or less – Always ・almost no damage

• Size of about 100m– once in a few 100 years ・regional damage

• Size of about 1km– once in a few 105 years ・global damage

• Size of about 10km– once in 108 years ・catastrophe

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Asteroids and super flares Life and civilization on Earth

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Largest flare ever observed:Carrington flare (1859, Sep 1, am 11:18 ）

• Richard Carrington in 1859: firstrecord of flare observation

• Very bright aurora appeared next day in Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica, El Salvador, and Hawaii.

• Estimated to be the largest magnetic storm (> 1000 nT) in modern history

• Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed.

• Telegraph pylons threw sparks and telegraph paper spontaneously caught fire（Loomis 1861）

• The solar storm (flare) on 2012 July 23 observed by STEREO is supposed to be a super-carrington class, though it occurred on the invisible side of the Sun from the Earth

• If it hit the Earth, the estimated economic impact is estimated to be >$2 trillion 27

Maehara et al. (2012) Super flare: Total energy~1036 erg10000 times larger than the largest solar flares

Maehara et al. (2012)

Sun

Super flares

Inte

nsity

(vis

ible

ligh

t)

Day A star with a big star spot generates super flares

Superflare 10000 times larger thanthe largest solar flare

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Superflare

C M X X10 X1000 X100000

Shib

ata

et a

l. 20

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1000 in 1 year100 in 1 year10 in 1 year1 in 1 year1 in 10 year1 in 100 year1 in 1000 year1 in 10000 year

Largest solar flare

Superflares 1000 times more energetic than the largest solar flares occur once in 5000 years !

Comparison between solar flares and superflares

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Collision Probability and Damage• Size of 10m or less

– Always ・almost no damage • Size of about 100m

– once in a few 100 years ・regional damage• The Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011

– Once in 104-5 years ・15,894 deaths, 2,562 people missing • Size of about 1km

– once in a few 105 years ・global damage• Super Flares: flares far larger than the largest observed flares( 1032 erg )

– Once in 106 years ・ 1037 erg superflare may cause ozone depletionand disaster for the civilization?

• Size of about 10km– once in 108 years ・catastrophe 30

Summary• JAXA appreciates and respects consolidated efforts so

far made by various organizations and individuals for planetary defense.

• Possibility of catastrophic asteroid collision is comparable those of super flares and major earthquake, and should by no means be neglected.

• JAXA’s space science has contributed to planetary defense directly and indirectly.

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