Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Space Commercialization inthe Next Decade - Economic

Risk or Opportunity

Steve Apfel

Boeing Integrated Defense Systems

12 November 2007

Presented at Reach for Space 2007 Conference

Washington DC

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 2

Space Commercialization – Communications Example

§ Space Commercialization in communications hasbeen successful

– TV, Radio, regional direct to home internet , internet datatrunking, regional and global mobile phone and data services

– Commercial provision of government communications hasbeen a win win for Government and commercial operators

§ There have also been failures

– Iridium, Globalstar, ICO - all are in existence with newbusiness plans

– Teledesic, Astrolink and others never got out of developmentstage

– $ Billions of dollars lost on failed ventures in the late 90’s

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 3

Syncom1963

Intelsat l(Early Bird)

1965

Intelsat II1966

ATS 1966

TACSAT1969

Intelsat IV 1971

3331972 Anik A1974 Westar

1976 Palapa A

Intelsat IVA1975

Marisat1976

Comstar1976

Leasat1984

Intelsat VI 1989

376HP1996 MEASAT 2

1997 Thor II

1998 Sirius 3

1998 Bonum 12000 Astra 2D

2003 e-BIRD

2005 MEASATt 3

601 Mobile1995 AMSC

1996 MSAT

3761980 SBS 1

1981 SBS 21982 Westar IV, V

1982 Anik C3, D1

1982 SBS 3 F2

1983 Anik C2

1983 Palapa B11983 Telstar 3A

1983 Galaxy I, II

1984 SBS 4 F4

1984 Telstar 3B

1984 Galaxy III1984 Anik D2

1985 Brasilsat A

1985 Anik C1

393/376W1989 JCSAT (393)

1990 SBS 6 (393)2000 Brasilsat B4

6011992 Optus B1

1992 Galaxy VII

1993 Astra 1C

1993 Galaxy IV1993 Solidaridad 1

1993 DIRECTV 1

1994 PAS-2

1994 DIRECTV 2

1994 Optus B31994 Solidaridad 2

1994 Astra 1D

1995 MSAT-2

1995 DIRECTV 3

1995 PAS-41995 JCSAT-3

601HP1997 PAS-51997 Astra 1G1997 Galaxy VIII-i1998 Astra 2A1998 SatMex 51998 Orion 31998 PAS-6B1999 AsiaSat 3S1999 Astra 1H

1999 DIRECTV 1-R, IVR

7021999 Galaxy XI

2000 PAS-1R, 9

2000 Anik F1

2001 XM-1, -2

2002 Galaxy IIIC 2004 Anik F2

2005 XM-3

2005 Spaceway F1, F2

2005 NewSkies-8

2006 XM-42007 DIRECTV-10

2007 Spaceway F3

2007/8 DIRECTV-11

GEM2000 Thuraya

2003 Thuraya-22007 Thuraya-3

2008 MSV 1-21985 Morelos A, B1985 Telstar 3C

1985 AUSSAT A1, A2

1987 Palapa-B2P

1987 Aussat A31988 SBS 5 F5

1989 BSB

1990 AsiaSat 1

1990 Palapa B2R

1990 BSB-21990 Galaxy VI

1992 Galaxy V

1992 Palapa-B4

1993 THAICOM 1

1994 Galaxy I-R

1994 APSTAR 11994 Brasilsat B1

1994 THAICOM 2

1995 Brasilsat B2

1996 MEASAT 1

1996 Galaxy IX1996 APSTAR IA

1997 BSAT-1a

1998 Brasilsat B3

1998 BSAT-1b

1998 Thor III2002 Hellas-Sat

2002 Astra 3A

1995 Astra 1E

1995 Galaxy III-R

1996 Palapa C11996 PAS-3R

1996 Astra 1F

1996 MSAT-1

1996 Palapa-C2

1997 JCSAT-4, -51997 Superbird C

1999 TDRS-H1999 JCSAT 6

2002 TDRS I, J

2002 JCSAT 8

2004 Superbird-6

2000 Galaxy XR2000 SUPERBIRD-42000 PAS-92001 PAX-102001 Astra 2C2001 DIRECTV-4S2003 Galaxy XIII

2003 AsiaSat 42005 GOES-N2005 MEASAT-32007 GOES-O2008 GOES-P

Boeing’s Commercial & CivilCommunications Satellites

Log 2006000675 rev 011806Page 3

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 4

Every Current Service Sector is Rapidly Evolving

Fixed

Broadcast

Mobile

Milsatcom

New Services Now inNew Services Now in

OperationOperation

ComingComing

OnlineOnline

Ka-band HDTV broadcast

Broadband Multimedia

Mobile Video

Fully flexible beams

Fully flexible bandwidth

IP Based Systems

Optical Crosslinks

Network Centric Ops

Full

Mesh

Fully flexible

beams &

bandwidth,

Onboard

Router,Optical

Crosslinks

GreatlyIncreased

HDTV

Capacity

Reduced

Terminal

Sizes, Return

Channel forMobile

Broadcast

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 5

Market Forces are Driving ProductsGeneral Trends

Mobility

BandwidthIntensive

Applications

NetworkCentric

Operations

BusinessFlexibility,

DeploymentPredictability

FlexibleBandwidth

Flexible SignalRouting

Flexible Beams

ReducedTerminal

Sizes

IncreasedSatellite

Bandwidth

BandwidthEfficient

Modulation,Compression

Standard,Flexible

Payloads

Higher power, more standard,more flexible satellites:

Any bandwidth, anywhere,any time

SatelliteCommunications Trends

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 6

A Vision of the Future for Communication SatellitesHighly Reconfigurable Satellites with Flexible Payloads

A single satellite design can serve multiple orbit slots

Operating Mode 1Operating Mode 1

Operating Mode 4Operating Mode 4Example: On-orbit backupfor multiple satellites

Example: commercialtelecom services and videodistribution in US

Operating Mode 3Operating Mode 3Example: commercial &government spot beams andvideo distribution regionalbeams

Operating Mode 2Operating Mode 2Example: commercial spotbeams for underservedregions and surge capability(Olympics, World Cup,natural disaster)

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 7

Introduction/Thesis§ What are some of the potential new markets in

space ?

– Satellite servicing – Orbital Express and others

– Tourism – Sub orbital, orbital and Hotels

– Materials processing - TBD

§ All new frontiers open up with newopportunities when the price of bringing the“middle class” is affordable

– The “new world”

– The “West”

– Automobiles

– Commercial Aircraft

– Commercial spacecraft ??

§ Space is still a new frontier 50+ years after thefirst exploration

What about the future ?

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 8

Satellite servicing – Orbital Express and others

§ Servicing types

– Refueling – does it make economic sense ?

§ Launch Vehicle underperformance insurance

§ Cost of getting the fuel to the S/C

§ Desire or requirement for an upgraded capability

§ Economics of the satellite propulsion system

– Repair and replace

§ Failed component replacement

§ Penalty (?) for line replaceable unit design

§ Timing of replacement

– Deployment issues repair

§ Risk of making things worse

– Anomaly resolution – “look but do not touch”

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 9

FIRST fully autonomous “soft” capture of a satellite whilestationkeeping

FIRST fully autonomous transfer of propellant from onevehicle to another on orbit with US technology

FIRST fully autonomous transfer of a component fromone vehicle to another using advanced robotics

FIRST fully autonomous capture of free flying vehicle &component transfer using closed-loop servo visionsystem with autonomous fault recovery

Free Flyer Capture

OE FirstsFIRST fully autonomous capture & servicing of asatellite from 200 km range without client assistance

FIRST fully autonomous on-board navigation &guidance to approach & stationkeep within 10 cm ofclient using passive, targetless systems

Active Half of

Capture Mechanism

Passive Half of

Capture Mechanism

Active Half of

Capture Mechanism

Passive Half of

Capture Mechanism

FIRST on-orbit use of embedded IEEE 1394 (Firewire)spacecraft network – enables computer ORU transfer

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 10

Tourism – Sub orbital, orbital and Hotels

§ When will I get to go ?

– Price point needs to be at upper middle class affordability

– $10000 ? – that’s what my wife told me….

§ Insurance, indemnification, failures

– How will these affect the business case and the market

– Can this fledging business survive in today’s litigiousenvironment

§ Small commercial aircraft market is good analogy

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 11

Zero G Materials processing

§ What, how much, why ?

§ How do we even get the knowledge of what can bedone ?

– Space station not ideal for zero g

– Lower cost transportation is key

Copyright © 2006 Boeing.

Page 12

What does the past tell us about the risks and opportunities ?

§ Is there a business plan that makes sense ?

§ Is the technology at a sufficient technology readinesslevel for a commercial activity ?

§ Is there an non served or underserved need that aspace system could fulfill ?

§ And the (much?) farther future

– Space Power to the Earth