SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206 LEVY PLANNING 2011 2012 2013

SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206

LEVY PLANNING 2011 2012 2013


LEVY PLANNINGLEVY PLANNING

Student Enrollment DeclineStudent Enrollment Decline

Enrollment History/ProjectionsEnrollment History/Projections

Actual Actual Actual Actual Est Projected Projected Projected Projected ProjectedEnrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment Enrollment

Grade 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

K 60.79 44.02 48.72 47.33 40.96 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00

1 111.25 132.98 94.29 102.94 97.67 88.67 85.36 84.94 84.79 84.84

2 151.99 118.91 136.93 99.09 95.04 100.77 90.52 86.33 85.58 84.70

3 153.79 158.99 112.42 133.56 95.17 95.83 99.47 88.29 84.71 84.08

4 123.15 148.54 160.89 105.77 123.43 93.01 92.38 95.85 84.23 81.04

5 143.32 122.85 140.10 156.59 102.26 120.04 90.28 89.17 92.95 81.62

6 145.18 143.43 126.02 148.85 150.80 102.93 121.45 91.53 90.20 93.08

7 164.16 149.83 143.97 130.73 147.82 153.39 104.65 123.10 92.96 91.22

8 155.08 170.76 150.21 153.37 123.51 148.84 155.22 105.31 123.96 92.53

9 217.54 165.16 174.20 153.95 145.27 124.64 150.82 155.68 105.26 123.27

10 173.78 220.02 160.31 172.58 153.27 143.04 123.47 148.77 154.06 104.14

11 171.86 150.66 199.33 147.55 154.72 136.26 128.13 111.31 133.99 138.14

12 159.42 167.88 160.29 204.31 157.29 156.04 140.08 133.04 115.00 138.65

Total 1,931.31 1,894.03 1,807.68 1,756.61 1,587.22 1,503.46 1,421.83 1,353.33 1,287.70 1,237.32

Change (76.69) (37.28) (86.35) (51.07) (169.40) (83.76) (81.63) (68.50) (65.62) (50.38)

5 Yr CohortHISTORY




Student Enrollment DeclineStudent Enrollment Decline Washington’s EconomyWashington’s Economy

The 2009-11 Budget Story

Where we’ve been and

where we are now

Prepared by the Office of Financial ManagementNov. 19, 2009

Overview

Over past 18 months, Washington has seen largest drop in revenue in recent memory.

Last session, we closed $9 billion shortfall through: cuts to programs and services use of Recovery Act funds fund transfers, including Rainy Day Fund

As revenue projections continue to decline, we will need to cut more to stay in balance.

Reduction options are limited by constitutional and federal spending mandates. This will narrow our choices.

04/19/23 8

$9 Billion Problem by March 2009

• Before recession, $3 billion problem projected for 2009-11 due to health care inflation, K-12 growth, prison population growth, pension obligations.• Problem grew with recession, resulting in $6 billion loss in revenue fromFeb. 2008 - March 2009.

04/19/23 9

Solving $9 Billion Gap:Actions to balance budget

04/19/23 10

Other States in Same Predicament

48 states have addressed or still face shortfalls for FY2010. 49 states had total tax revenue fall during 2nd quarter; 36 report double-digit declines. 25+ states face new shortfalls after balancing budgets just months ago.

04/19/23 13

Sources of $2.6 Billion Shortfall

Revenues dropping $686 million June forecast $238 million September forecast $760 million November forecast $154 million Tax lawsuit pending $1.84 billion Subtotal

Costs rising, issues emerging $659 million increased demand for health care, schools, prisons $12 million forest fires, landslides, dam failures, other

possible emergencies $71 million lawsuits blocking planned cuts $742 million Subtotal

04/19/23 14

What Should We Expect?Revenue uncertainty continues

According to state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council:State revenues will lag economic recovery

Job growth will lag economic recovery

Unemployment will remain high

Less revenue expected in 2009-11 than collected in 2007-09

04/19/23 15

Higher Ed:Fed. Require. 8%

Majority of $31 Billion Budget Is Protected:Tied to state constitutional or federal requirements

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K-12 Basic Education 41%

Debt Service/ Pensions 7%

Mandatory Medicaid/Foster

Care 14%

Other Human Services

17%

Higher Education 1%

General Government/Other

5 %

Other K-12 2%

70% of the Budget Is Protected

Corrections5% Not protected

$9.3 billion

Protected $21.6 billion

Possible Areas for More Cuts:Non-Protected Budget

• Mental health and developmental disabilities services: $1.6 billion

• Prisons/community supervision of offenders: $1.6 billion

• Care for low-income elderly: $1.3 billion • Economic support for low-income families: $1.1

billion • K-12 non-basic education funding (class size

reduction, others): $635 million • Higher education: $500 million (most is financial aid) • Juvenile corrections: $198 million

Protected

Subject toreductions

04/19/23 17




Retirement RatesRetirement Rates

TRS Rates Skyrocket Over Current Biennium

Employer Contribution Rates

Plan

2009-10 SY &

2010-11 SY

2011-12 SY*

2012-13 SY*

2013-14 SY*

2014-15 SY*

PERS 5.29% 8.44% 9.19% 11.33% 11.48%

SERS 5.43% 8.87% 9.62% 11.18% 11.33%

TRS 6.14% 12.12% 13.12% 15.25% 16.10%

Change for TRS over 2010-11

5.98% 6.98% 9.11% 9.96%

Rates displayed above are the pension contribution only. Other mandatory benefit components are in addition to pensions (such as social security and Medicare), but are anticipated to be stable.

*Projected rates based on Office of the State Actuary’s April 28,2009 projections.

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OSPI; 6/26/09




Retirement RatesRetirement Rates SHB 2812SHB 2812


Forecast of Seattle CPI-U, All items (1982-84=100)

Updated 9-29-09Annual Growth

2006 (Actual) 3.7%2007(Actual) 3.9%2008 (Actual) 4.2%2009 1.1%2010 1.9%2011 1.9%2012 2.1%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Puget Sound Economic Foprecaster, prepared by Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc.


I-728 Funding per SHB 2812

ACTUAL I-728 Funding

Added to Levy Base

COLA per SHB 2812

ACTUAL COLA

2007-08 450.00$ 450.00$ -$ 3.7% 3.7%2008-09 467.55$ 458.10$ 9.45$ 3.9% 3.9%2009-10 487.19$ 131.16$ 356.03$ 4.2% 0.0%2010-11 492.55$ 99.00$ 393.55$ 1.1% 0.0%2011-12 501.90$ -$ 501.90$ 1.9%2012-13 511.44$ -$ 511.44$ 1.9%2013-14 522.18$ -$ 522.18$ 2.1%

FOR LEVY BASE CALCULATION PURPOSES




Retirement RatesRetirement Rates SHB 2812SHB 2812

Levy AuthorityLevy Authority Assessed ValuationAssessed Valuation



Tax CPF TVF M&O Assess Valuation

Year Total M&O CPF TVF $$$ % chg $$$ $$$ Valuation % chg

2004 1.35$ 1.35$ -$ 3,190,370$ 2.5% -$ 2,415,208,748$ 6.8% 13,234,071$ 24%

2005 1.43$ 1.33$ 0.10$ 3,250,000$ 1.9% 250,000$ 2,450,868,206$ 1.5% 13,579,205$ 24%

2006 1.36$ 1.27$ 0.09$ 3,408,000$ 4.9% 250,000$ 2,689,503,698$ 9.7%14,173,233$

24%

2007 1.42$ 1.22$ 0.20$ -$ 3,406,528$ 0.0% 550,000$ -$ 2,801,752,675$ 4.2% 14,123,568$ 24%

2008 1.07$ 0.93$ 0.14$ -$ 3,563,209$ 4.6% 550,000$ -$ 3,819,064,242$ 36.3% 14,887,350$ 24%

2009 1.06$ 0.83$ 0.21$ 0.02$ 3,679,784$ 3.3% 950,000$ 100,000$ 4,430,997,552$ 16.0% 15,303,535$ 24%

2010 1.02$ 0.80$ 0.20$ 0.02$ 3,800,173$ 3.3% 950,000$ 100,000$ 4,750,189,576$ 7.2% 15,785,066$ 24%

2011 1.03$ 0.83$ 0.20$ -$ 3,950,000$ 3.9% 950,000$ -$ 4,750,189,576$ 0.0% 13,905,401$ 28%

2012 1.05$ 0.85$ 0.21$ -$ 3,900,000$ -1.3% 950,000$ -$ 4,607,683,889$ -3.0% 13,688,836$ 28%

2013 1.05$ 0.84$ 0.20$ -$ 3,925,000$ 0.6% 950,000$ -$ 4,653,760,778$ 1.0% 13,871,342$ 28%

LEVY BASE LEVY %

*Property values based on 2 years prior assessed valuation **Levy Base based on revenue from two prior years

ACTUAL Levy Rates M & O

Proposed Levy Rates





Cost to TaxpayerCost to Taxpayer


$ in 000 M&O CPF TVF Total

$300 366.00$ 60.00$ -$ 426.00$

$350 427.00$ 70.00$ -$ 497.00$

$400 488.00$ 80.00$ -$ 568.00$

$450 549.00$ 90.00$ -$ 639.00$


$300 279.00$ 42.00$ -$ 321.00$

$350 325.50$ 49.00$ -$ 374.50$

$400 372.00$ 56.00$ -$ 428.00$

$450 418.50$ 63.00$ -$ 481.50$

Tax Payer Contribution (Property Value Increments)

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$300 249.00$ 63.00$ 6.00$ 318.00$

$350 290.50$ 73.50$ 7.00$ 371.00$

$400 332.00$ 84.00$ 8.00$ 424.00$

$450 373.50$ 94.50$ 9.00$ 477.00$


$300 240.00$ 60.00$ 6.00$ 306.00$

$350 280.00$ 70.00$ 7.00$ 357.00$

$400 320.00$ 80.00$ 8.00$ 408.00$

$450 360.00$ 90.00$ 9.00$ 459.00$


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$300 249.46$ 60.00$ -$ 309.46$

$350 291.04$ 70.00$ -$ 361.04$

$400 332.62$ 80.00$ -$ 412.62$

$450 374.20$ 90.00$ -$ 464.19$


$300 253.92$ 61.85$ -$ 315.78$

$350 296.24$ 72.16$ -$ 368.41$

$400 338.56$ 82.47$ -$ 421.04$

$450 380.89$ 92.78$ -$ 473.67$


$300 253.02$ 61.24$ -$ 314.26$

$350 295.19$ 71.45$ -$ 366.64$

$400 337.36$ 81.65$ -$ 419.02$

$450 379.53$ 91.86$ -$ 471.39$


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Documents

SOUTH WHIDBEY SCHOOL DISTRICT No. 206 LEVY PLANNING 2011 2012 2013