Desdinatio~.30(1979)75 8Ehvier&ientificPublishiugCompany. Amskdam-PCntedinTheNethedands

SOME THOUGHTS ON DISTILLATION PROCESSES

T. KINLIN

U~stingh5~86 Zidy, R’W6.P SyStsms DiViSian, Ihi&zd+hia, PA 19086, USA

PBSTRACT

Nestinghouse offers the following thoughts on distillation desalination for

discussion rather than predictions_

Five year planning has now become camnon in well-run companies. This

involves the identification and forecasting of important factors over the

following lo-year period which are relevant to setting goals, strategies, and

strategic programs for the next five years. Experience shows that in most cases

each year there has to be substantial changes made in the assumptions made the

previous year. Thus the accuracy of forecasting for even 10 years can approach

that of just throwing darts at a dartboard. To carry forecasting out to more than

20 years is somewhat like throwing darts without even having a target dartboard.

Setting market forecasts aside therefore we offer these thoughts:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

The future of distillation is intimately related to the availability and cost

of energy and capital , but so is virtually every other element of human

lifestyle in the 21st century.

Would it not be reasonable to assume that pressures wholly apart from desali-

nation will bring about economic, technological and implementation action.

And that consequently these will create a climate which. while on a different

plateau, will look on balance very similar to the climate we see in 1979.

Naturally we could expect that there will be transient dislocations as we &ve

toward that point.

Capital cost will no doubt have the most significant impact on market and

market share. Is there any reason why human nature will change?

Within the un?brella of capital cost, the search will be for reliable technology

which can utilize the least energy at the lowest possible level. This is not

really different than today.

Distillation has some handicaps in this area. However we already have some

good potential for improvement. It certainly cannot be counted out, on the

other hand, one should not bet his lifes savings on it yet either.

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