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NEW MEXICO
SOME ACTIONS ALREADY TAKEN
WEAKNESSES
• The state’s Hazard Mitigation Plan, technical assistance programs, disaster response plans, emergency communications materials, and sector-specific programs are helping the state to address current risks.
• In 2005, the state produced Potential Effects of Climate Change on New Mexico, which includes information on climate change-related extreme heat, drought, and wildfire risks.
• New Mexico is participating in the Environmental Public Health Tracking Program and tracks extreme heat impacts on public health, and provides educational materials on identifying and treating heat injuries.
• New Mexico’s Drought Task Force produced a drought plan in 2006, and is tracking current and historical drought conditions in the state.
• The Impacts of Climate Change on New Mexico’s Water Supply and Ability to Manage Water Resources contains information on climate change-related drought risks.
• The state is in the process of updating regional water plans, which requires regions to address future water supply shortages.
• No evidence of detailed, statewide climate change vulnerability assessments across the sector examined for wildfire.
• While the state’s Climate Change Advisory Group produced a report containing adaptation strategies, no evidence of related activity has occurred in the state since 2011.
• No evidence of detailed statewide adaptation plan across the sectors examined for extreme heat.
• No evidence of official state funding, policies, or guidelines to improve resilience against climate change-related extreme heat, drought, or wildfire.
• No evidence of action to incorporate climate change projections associated with extreme heat, drought, or wildfire into state-level programs, investments, and activities.
Implementing Resilience Actions
Addressing Current Risks
Conducting VulnerabilityAssessments
Planning for Adaptation
Extensive
Strong
Limited
Fair
None
ACTION TAKEN:
Extreme Heat
Drought
Wildfire
Inland Flooding
Coastal Flooding
EXTREME HEAT:
DROUGHT:
WILDFIRE:
INLAND FLOODING:
COASTAL FLOODING:
OVERALL: B-B-
C
B
—
—
ABCDF
OVERALL GRADE:
B-New Mexico faces considerable and significantly increasing threat levels from extreme heat, drought, and wildfire between now and 2050. New Mexico scores an overall grade of B- on the Report Card, with grades ranging from a C for drought to a B for wildfire. The grades are relative to other states, and relative to the magnitude of the climate threats themselves. While the state has taken strong action to address its current climate risks, it has taken only limited action to address its future changes.
012345 million
OVERALL:
DROUGHT:
WILDFIRE:
INLAND FLOODING:
EXTREME HEAT:
COASTAL FLOODING:
EXTREME HEAT: B-B-
C
B
—
—
B-
KEY FINDINGS:
Lowest Highest
AVERAGE
THREAT LEVEL:
0% 100%
ABOVE AVERAGE
PREPAREDNESS LEVEL:
The preparedness grade represents how well a state is preparing for its threat level, relative to all states evaluated for that threat. It compares a state’s position in the distribution of threat levels to its position in the distribution of preparedness scores. Thus two states with the same absolute preparedness score might receive different grades, depending on their levels of threat—a state with a higher threat level would receive a lower grade. For details, see the methodology.
New Mexico earns a B- for its above average level of preparedness in the face of an average overall extreme heat threat. Currently, New Mexico faces an above average threat among the lower 48 states. It has taken extensive action, whereas the majority of states have taken strong action or less, to address its current heat risks through its hazard mitigation planning process. By 2050, New Mexico is projected to have an average threat, primarily due to a relatively low vulnerable population and a comparatively modest percent increase in the number of heat wave days. While New Mexico’s Climate Change Advisory Group published a report in 2005 containing strategies to address climate change through greenhouse gas mitigation measures, limited action has been taken to assess or plan for future heat risks.
ABCDF
NEW MEXICO COMPARED TO OTHER STATES:
EXTREME HEAT THREAT DID YOU KNOW?Extreme Heat Threat to Vulnerable Populations†
Rank(among states) 11th 15th
† Average number of heat wave days per year times total vulnerable popula-tion. A score of 1 represents 1 vulnerable person exposed to 1 heat wave day.
15th
• Currently, New Mexico averages 20 days a year classified as dangerous or extremely dangerous, according to the NWS Heat Index. By 2050, the state is projected to face twice as many such days, almost 40 a year.
• By 2050, the typical number of heat wave days in New Mexico is projected to increase from slightly less than 15 to more than 50 days a year.
• New Mexico has 80,000 people aged 65 and older, or under 5 years old, and living below the poverty line. These groups are considered to be especially vulnerable to extreme heat.
Average annual number of heat wave days: Average number of days each year on which the maximum temperature exceeds the 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature in the baseline period (1991-2010) for at least three consecutive days.
NEW MEXICO
2000 2030 2050
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
n/a
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
n/a
EXTREME HEAT:EXAMPLE CRITERIA
B-A subset of the criteria used to develop New Mexico’s extreme heat preparedness grade.
Tran
spor
tatio
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gy
Wat
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Health
Com
mun
ities
Does the State Hazard Mitigation Plan cover extreme heat?
Does the state have an extreme heat emergency response plan that is updated routinely?
Does the state provide extreme heat emergency communication materials for citizens?
Has the state published information on how the frequency or severity of extreme heat events may change in the future?
Has the state conducted extreme heat vulnerability assessments for each sector?
Is the state tracking extreme heat impacts?
Is there a statewide climate change adaptation plan covering extreme heat?
Is there a statewide implementation plan for climate change adaptation?
Does the state have sector-specific extreme heat adaptation plans?
Are there optional state guidelines for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Are there state requirements for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Is there evidence that the state is implementing extreme heat adaptation policy/guidelines?
ADDRESSING CURRENT RISKS
IMPLEMENTING RESILIENCE ACTIONS
PLANNING FOR ADAPTATION
CONDUCTING VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS
“n/a” indicates that the sector is either insensitive to the threat or the state does not have a significant role.
NEW MEXICO
OVERALL:
DROUGHT:
WILDFIRE:
INLAND FLOODING:
COASTAL FLOODING:
EXTREME HEAT: B-
B-
CB
—
—
NEW MEXICO
DROUGHT: C
Lowest Highest
ABOVE AVERAGE
THREAT LEVEL:
0% 100%
AVERAGE
PREPAREDNESS LEVEL:
The preparedness grade represents how well a state is preparing for its threat level, relative to all states evaluated for that threat. It compares a state’s position in the distribution of threat levels to its position in the distribution of preparedness scores. Thus two states with the same absolute preparedness score might receive different grades, depending on their levels of threat—a state with a higher threat level would receive a lower grade. For details, see the methodology.
New Mexico earns a C for its average level of preparedness in the face of an above average overall widespread summer drought threat. Currently, the state faces a far above average threat among the 36 states assessed for drought, and it has taken strong action to address its current drought risks through a drought plan and a dedicated Drought Task Force. By 2050, New Mexico’s drought threat is projected to be above average, but it has taken only a fair amount of action to understand its future drought risks. In 2006, New Mexico released The Impact of Climate Change on New Mexico’s Water Supply and Ability to Manage Water Resources, which identified future drought risks and strategies to increase resilience. However, there is no evidence the state has taken action to implement the report’s recommendations. New Mexico is in the process of updating regional water plans and preparing a new statewide water plan for 2017 that aims to address future drought risks.
ABCDF
NEW MEXICO COMPARED TO OTHER STATES:
KEY FINDINGS:
0306090
120150
DROUGHT THREATSummer Drought Threat (Index)
Rank(among states) 3rd 7th 4th
• Currently, New Mexico’s severity of widespread summer drought is far above average and ranks in the top 5 states among the 36 states assessed for drought.
• By 2050, the severity of widespread summer drought is projected to increase by almost 70 percent. While this is a below average increase, New Mexico’s threat level in 2050 is projected to remain in the top 5.
DID YOU KNOW?
Severity of widespread summer drought: Sum of soil moisture deficit (standard score) in the summer months for model grid cells where the standard score is less than -1, when at least 30% of grid cells in a state meet this criterion.
2000 2030 2050
DROUGHT:
NEW MEXICO
CEXAMPLE CRITERIAA subset of the criteria used to develop New Mexico’s drought preparedness grade.
“n/a” indicates that the sector is either insensitive to the threat or the state does not have a significant role.
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
n/a
NO
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Tran
spor
tatio
n
Ener
gy
Wat
er
Health
Com
mun
ities
Does the State Hazard Mitigation Plan cover drought?
Does the state have a drought emergency response plan that is updated routinely?
Does the state provide drought emergency communication materials for citizens?
Has the state published information on how the frequency or severity of drought may change in the future?
Has the state conducted drought vulnerability assessments for each sector?
Is the state tracking drought impacts?
Is there a statewide climate change adaptation plan covering drought?
Is there a statewide implementation plan for climate change adaptation?
Does the state have sector-specific drought adaptation plans?
Are there optional state guidelines for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Are there state requirements for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Is there evidence that the state is implementing drought adaptation policy/guidelines?
ADDRESSING CURRENT RISKS
IMPLEMENTING RESILIENCE ACTIONS
PLANNING FOR ADAPTATION
CONDUCTING VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS
OVERALL:
DROUGHT:
WILDFIRE:
INLAND FLOODING:
COASTAL FLOODING:
EXTREME HEAT: B-
B-
C
B—
—
NEW MEXICO
B
Lowest Highest
ABOVE AVERAGE
THREAT LEVEL:
0% 100%
AVERAGE
PREPAREDNESS LEVEL:
The preparedness grade represents how well a state is preparing for its threat level, relative to all states evaluated for that threat. It compares a state’s position in the distribution of threat levels to its position in the distribution of preparedness scores. Thus two states with the same absolute preparedness score might receive different grades, depending on their levels of threat—a state with a higher threat level would receive a lower grade. For details, see the methodology.
New Mexico earns a B for its average level of preparedness in the face of an above average overall wildfire threat. While the state currently faces an average threat among the 24 states assessed for wildfire, it has taken extensive action, more than the majority of states, to understand and prepare for its current wildfire risks. By 2050, New Mexico is projected to see an above average increase in threat level, but the state has taken only limited action to address its future wildfire risks. Although a 2005 report includes an assessment of impacts from the changing wildfire risks, almost no action has been taken to plan for or implement strategies to address these future risks.
ABCDF
NEW MEXICO COMPARED TO OTHER STATES:
KEY FINDINGS:
WILDFIRE:
01020304050
WILDFIRE THREATAnnual Days With High Wildfire Potential
Rank(among states) 10th 7th 5th
• New Mexico has more than 1.4 million people living within the wildland-urban interface, where developed land and wild lands converge and intersperse, and vulnerability to wildfire is elevated. This represents nearly 70 percent of the state’s population living in areas at risk.
• Currently, the number of days per year with high wildfire potential, weighted by vulnerable population, is average among the 24 states assessed for wildfire.
• By 2050, New Mexico’s average number of days with high wildfire potential is projected to increase from 15 to nearly 40 days a year.
DID YOU KNOW?
Average Annual Number of Days with High Wildfire Potential: Average number of days each year with Keetch-Byram Drought Index values exceeding 600.
2000 2030 2050
NEW MEXICO
BEXAMPLE CRITERIAA subset of the criteria used to develop New Mexico’s wildfire preparedness grade.
WILDFIRE:
“n/a” indicates that the sector is either insensitive to the threat or the state does not have a significant role.
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
n/a
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
Tran
spor
tatio
n
Ener
gy
Wat
er
Health
Com
mun
ities
Does the State Hazard Mitigation Plan cover wildfire?
Does the state have a wildfire emergency response plan that is updated routinely?
Does the state provide wildfire emergency communication materials for citizens?
Has the state published information on how the frequency or severity of wildfires may change in the future?
Has the state conducted wildfire vulnerability assessments for each sector?
Is the state tracking wildfire impacts?
Is there a statewide climate change adaptation plan covering wildfire?
Is there a statewide implementation plan for climate change adaptation?
Does the state have sector-specific wildfire adaptation plans?
Are there optional state guidelines for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Are there state requirements for resilient activities (e.g., construction)?
Is there evidence that the state is implementing wildfire adaptation policy/guidelines?
ADDRESSING CURRENT RISKS
IMPLEMENTING RESILIENCE ACTIONS
PLANNING FOR ADAPTATION
CONDUCTING VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS
