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BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA | 18 - 20 SEPTEMBER 2017 MANAGED BY
Water Security Solutions for People, Economies and the Environment
William Young1, Claudia Sadoff1, Edoardo Borgomeo1, Casey Brown2,
Jim Hall3, Tess Doeffinger3
1 Global Water Practice, World Bank, Washington DC 2 Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 3 Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK
World Bank Global Water Practice
Vision:
“A Water-Secure World for All”
What does this mean in practice?
Development Potential Service Delivery
Risk Management
Extremes Governance
Financing
Supply vs Demand Accessibility
Water quality E-flows
Security
Risk
Stress
Scarcity Volumetric availability
A hierarchy of water complexity
Leverage productive aspects of water Manage destructive aspects of water Sink or Swim
Sadoff & Grey (2007)
Challenge often greater for poorer countries M
on
thly
Rai
nfa
ll V
aria
bili
ty
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
GDP and Rainfall Variability
Mean Annual Rainfall
Bubble size: GDP per capita Blue: low CV inter-annual rainfall. Red: high CV inter-annual rainfall
Challenge often greater for poorer countries In
crea
sin
g in
vest
men
t
Increasing hydrological complexity
Wealthy economies (green dots)
face simpler hydrology & have made more investments Poorest countries (red/orange dots)
face greater challenges & have made little investment
The Curse of Freshwater Variability, Hall et al. (2014)
Rel
ativ
e le
vel o
f w
ater
use
GDP per Capita USD
Low income agrarian economies
High income services /
manufacturing economies
But many middle-income countries water stressed
Bubble size: %GDP in agriculture
Middle-income agriculture-dependent economies
• 47 water-rich (most equatorial) countries with low relative level of use (mean 3%)
• 44 water stressed countries with high relative level of use (mean 57%)
• The 13 most water stressed are: Libya, Yemen, Egypt, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Syria, Pakistan, Iraq, Sudan, Tunisia, Iran, Algeria
• A near contiguous region from northern Africa through ME/Gulf to Central Asia
Incr
easi
ng
wat
er s
tres
s (W
RI)
Cumulative probability with mean GDP by decile
Countries with high (but not extreme) water stress have low economic ability to cope – including the necessary investments in infrastructure and capacity. WRI range 3.5 to 4.6.
Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, India Lesotho, Spain, Mexico, South Korea
Incr
easi
ng
per
cap
ita
GD
P (
USD
)
Beyond Metrics to Diagnosis
• identify & quantify unmanaged risks & unexploited opportunities relating to water
Systematic approach
• identify & prioritize investments to enhance water security
Strategic framework
• promote balanced, sequenced investments in water information systems, institutions & infrastructure
Evidence base
• Benchmarks, comparisons & information Advocacy and
awareness raising
A dynamic goal in a changing context
Water security is a goal. IWRM is a process to get there
A dynamic goal that changes with:
• Climate
• Economic opportunities & risks
• Demographics
• Ecosystem health
• Social, cultural, aesthetic priorities
Need to anticipate change & build resilience
Diagnostic Framework
• Provides a structured process to answer three strategic questions:
1. To what extent are water resources being managed efficiently and sustainably?
2. To what extent are water services being delivered reliably, affordably and inclusively?
3. To what extent are water-related risks been recognized and mitigated?
• In terms of the outcomes for people, the economy and the environment
The capital that supports water security: institutional & human capital, financial & infrastructure capital, and the natural resources capital
Water security outcomes: unmanaged risks and unexploited opportunities for people, the economy and the environment
Management of Water Resources
Delivery of Water Services
Mitigation of Water-related
Risks
The actions of
water security
Mapping to SDGs
Other Diagnostics?
• Ostrom (2007) A diagnostic approach for going beyond panaceas. PNAS 104 (39)
• Focused on complex social-ecological systems
• Organizes key variables in a nested, multitier framework
• Recognizes limitations of simple predictive models / solutions
• As these are seldom useful for complex, multivariable, nonlinear, dynamic systems
Objectives • Impacts of water insecurity on
people, economy & environment • Water security challenges • Water security opportunities
Focus • Determine the scale & scope • Provide context • Compile outcome indicators • Consider status & trends • Hypothesize drivers
Outputs • PowerPoint • Short report • Info-graphic
Initial Rapid Assessment
Environmental Status
• Spatial Agent ~300 data sets/indicators • Only 15 environmental indicators: 12 terrestrial, 2 marine, 1 freshwater
• International Rivers: State of the World’s Rivers (50 major rivers)
• IUCN: Ecosystem/Species Red Lists; World DB Protected Areas
• WWF: Global Lakes and Wetlands DB
• BioFresh: Global Freshwater Biodiversity Atlas
• ADB Asia Water Development Outlook • River health index, flow regulation & governance “scores”
• Ramsar: country profiles
• GEMStat: WQ DB
• Yale Environmental Performance Index: • Wastewater treatment, Species protection
• IWMI • Eco-hydrologic DB • Global Eflow Info System
Water security at different scales
International
• transboundary waters
National
• across federal states
Basin – City - Local
• 3 major reservoirs, 19 barrages
• 12 inter-river link canals
• 43 irrig commands (>14 Mha)
• >120,000 watercourses
• ~60,000 km of canals
Pakistan – Indus Basin
Malawi Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe
Water Sources
Total renewable surface water (10^9m^3/year) 17.28 214.1 104.8 19 2014 FAO Aquastat
Total renewable groundwater (10^9m^3/year) 2.5 17 47 6 2014 FAO Aquastat
Total renewable water resources (10^9m^3/year) 17.28 217.1 104.8 20 2014 FAO Aquastat
Total renewable water resources per capita
(10^9m^3/year/person)1004 7760 6464 1282 2014 FAO Aquastat
Avg Annual Precipitation (mm/year) 1181.3 1032 1020 657 2002 Aquastat
Humid land (P/ET>0.65) (% of total area) 53.18 43.43 53.18 3.66 2002 Aquastat
Arid land (P/ET<0.2)(% of total area) 0 0 0 1.36 2002 Aquastat
Water lost 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Rainfall distribution 2011 Beck and Bernauer 2011
Water allocation to different sectors (% of total water
withdrawal)
Agriculture (77% regionally) 85.9 73.1 73.3 82.1 2005/2015/2002/2007 FAO Aquastat
Industrial (5% regionally) 3.5 1.7 8.3 6.0 2005/2015/2002/2007 FAO Aquastat
Domestic (18% regionally) 10.6 25.3 18.5 11.9 2005/2015/2002/2007 FAO Aquastat
Percent of country area in the basin 93.2 17.5 71.7 64.3 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Agricultural land (% of land area) 61.4 63.5 32.1 41.9 2015 World Bank
Arable land (% of land area) 40.3 7.2 5.1 10.3 2015 World Bank
Baseline water stress; total annual water withdrawals
expressed as a percentage of the total annual available
blue water. Higher values indicate more competition
among users
0.110 0.820 0.080 0.640 2013 WRI Aqueduct
Inter-annual variability measures the variation in water
supply between years1.590 3.520 2.080 3.060 2013 WRI Aqueduct
Seasonal variability measures variation in water supply
between months of the year3.840 3.340 4.450 3.650 2013 WRI Aqueduct
Flood occurrence is the number of floods recorded from
1985 to 20113.330 2.960 2.480 2.770 2013 WRI Aqueduct
Drought severity measures the average length of drought
times the dryness of the droughts from 1901 to 20081.380 1.260 1.810 2.050 2013 WRI Aqueduct
Electrical power consumption (kWh/person) n/a 435.5961 731.4664 531.7459 2013 World Bank
Water productivity in agriculture and industry (constant
2010 $USD/m^3 of total freshwater withdrawal)6.09 15.18 16.11 3.54 2013/2014/2014/2014 World Bank
Population working in Agriculture 8,069,072 5,543,920 n/a n/a 2007/2010 CountryStat
Population working not in agriculture 5,023,594 1,827,030 n/a n/a 2007/2010 CountryStat
Water reused to supply industries
Reliability of water supply for vital parts of economy
(irrigation for agriculture)
Energy efficiency of water extraction and distribution
(wells, pipelines, pumps, etc.)
Connectedness of economic sectors (agricultural
production vs. import).
Dynamic commerical and
corprorate farming sector.
Gov't supporting land
tenure conversions to titled
land.
Although Agriculture accounts for
17% of the economy, 60% of
manufacturing relies on it.
Transport, services,
communication, and storage
served the agriculture sector to
some degree - accounting for 23%
of economy.
2014, 2007 FAO 2007, Richardson 2007
Input to agricultural production and food security
Green water variability (e.g. a drought index)
Surface water variability (storage adjusted)
Small Water Bodies - regulate and
maintain steady supply of water
to the farmland. Of 12,430 dams
in southern Africa (excluding SA),
10,747 are in Zimbabwe.
Zimbabwe makes up < 7% of
surface area of southern Africa,
but 93% of reservoir surface area
for the region.
2007 Richardson 2007
Potential irrigation development
Connectedness of economic sectors (agricultural
production vs. import).
Green water variability (e.g. a drought index)
Surface water variability (storage adjusted)
Economic vulnerability to hydrometerological disasters
During 1991-1992, yearly rains
were 46% below normal; real
GDP growth fell by 9%. Only
3.7% of SWBs completely dried
up.
2007 Richardson 2007
Population affected by hydrometerological disasters
Property rights/land reform/changes
70% is not irrigated, but growing.
>50% growth in irrigated land
since 2008. Potential for 75000
additional hectares of irrigated
land ($USD 30 million).
Impact on land reforms starting
in 2000 has had devasating
effects on the commercial farm
system. Gov't nationalized land
and irrigation pipes are dug up
and sold for scrap. No clear
ownership.
2014, 2007 FAO 2007, Richardson 2007
Transboundary dependence
Flood frequency
Geographic distribution of gains in the economy
Annual rainfall in the ZRB is quite high, but it distributed very unevenly across the basin. The southern and western parts receive much
less rainfall than the northern and eastern parts.
Most of the water lost is from evaporation from hydroelectric reservoirs
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Water Resources
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Water resources indicators by country
• Current status /baseline
• Trends and drivers
• Resilience attributes
Malawi Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe
Access to water services (% of population)
Improved water source 90.2 51.1 65.4 76.9 2015 World Bank
Improved water source (Rural) 89.1 37 51.3 67.3 2015 World Bank
Improved water source (Urban) 95.7 80.6 85.6 97 2015 World Bank
Access to sanitation services (% of population)
Improved sanitation source 41 20.5 43.9 36.8 2015 World Bank
Improved sanitation source (Rural) 39.8 10.1 35.7 30.8 2015 World Bank
Improved sanitation source (Urban) 47.3 42.4 55.6 49.3 2015 World Bank
0.0418 74.14 101.1 99.93 2015 FAO Aquastat
2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Dam Capacity per capita (m3/inhabitant) 2.428 2650 6236 6405 2015 FAO Aquastat
Number of Major reservoirs > 1Mm3 1 12 5 25 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Water institutions assessment
IBNET utility assessment (# of public utilities sampled) 5 5 11 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Total population living in service area (thousands) 2623 3211 5682 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Electrical energy costs vs. operating costs (%)(energy
costs as % of operating cost)22 17 (2006) n/a n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Non revenue water (%) 40 59 43 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Non revenue water (m3/km/day) 23 131 n/a n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Continuity of Service (hrs/day) (duration of water
supply, hrs)21 19.2 17.1 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Water sold that is metered (%) 100 51 57.4 n/a 2009/2007/2013World Bank WSS Blue Book
2014/Zambia NWASCO 2015
Collection period (days) 195 334 n/a n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Collection ratio (%) 86 95 66 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Average revenue (US$/m3 water sold) $ 0.70 $ 0.69 $ 0.52 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Operational revenue (US$/m3 water sold) $ 0.65 $ 0.85 $ 0.39 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Water production (l/person/day) 125 212.2 197 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Total water consumption (l/person/day) 75 87 112 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Residential consumption (l/person/day) 36 n/a 74 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Total revenues/service population/GNI (% GNI per
capita)(average revenues)5.99 6.44 1.52 n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Ratio of industrial to residential tariff (level of cross-
subsidy)1.14 n/a n/a n/a 2009/2007/2013 World Bank WSS Blue Book 2014
Total water withdrawal (10^9m^3/year) 1.357 1.473 1.572 3.57 2005/2015/2002/2007 FAO Aquastat
Water withdrawal per capita (10^9m^3/year/person) 100.5 52.65 141.1 268.5 2005/2015/2002/2007 FAO Aquastat
Cost of water
Reliability & Recovery
Wastewater treatment
Protection against water related hazards (floods)
Water infrastructure assessment
Disenfranchised populations affected by water supply
Rural poverty gap at national poverty lines (% of
population)21.4 22.2 37.9 42.8 2010/2008/2010/2011 World Bank
Urban population gap at national poverty lines (%
of population)4.8 19.1 9.3 15.5 2010/2008/2010/2011 World Bank
Disenfranchised populations and cost
GINI index 46.12 45.58 55.62 43.15 2010/2008/2010/2011 World Bank
Population Dynamics
Population growth (%) 4.12 2.76 3.07 2.31 2015 World Bank
Population 17,215,232 27,977,863 16,211,767 15,602,751 2015 World Bank
% of Population in the basin 86.1% 19.2% 70.2% 72.1% 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Rural population 14,413,969 18,965,074 9,577,588 10,551,204 2015 World Bank
Urban population 2,801,263 9,012,789 6,634,179 5,051,547 2015 World Bank
Population in urban conglomorates >1million (%) n/a 4.24 13.44 9.62 2015 World Bank
% of population working in agriculture 85% 88% 67% 27% 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Internal population dynamics 2011 Beck and Bernauer 2011
Economy
GDP ($USD) 6,403,820,949$ 14,807,075,727$ 21,154,394,546$ 14,419,185,900$ 2015 World Bank
GDP per capita ($USD) 372$ 529$ 1,305$ 924$ 2015 World Bank
% of GDP in Agriculture 37% 24% 22% 18% 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
% of GDP growth due to agriculture n/a 20% 14% 50% 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Net migration (5 year estimate) -30000 -25000 -34490 -219922 2012 World Bank
GDP Growth (%) 2.83 6.61 2.92 0.47 2015 World Bank
Structural changes in the economy (institutional or
FAO Aquastat Indicators
Voice and Accountability (-2.5 weak to 2.5 strong) -0.011 -0.281 -0.113 -1.193 2015 World Bank
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism
(-2.5 weak to 2.5 strong)-0.065 -0.577 0.086 -0.577 2015 World Bank
Government effectiveness (-2.5 weak to 2.5 strong) -0.675 -0.742 -0.554 -1.148 2015 World Bank
Regulatory Quality (-2.5 weak to 2.5 strong) -0.819 -0.495 -0.422 -1.647 2015 World Bank
Rule of Law (-2.5 weak to 2.5 strong) -0.333 -0.867 -0.253 -1.349 2015 World Bank
Control of Corruption (-2.5 weak to 2.5 strong) -0.763 -0.785 -0.405 -1.287 2015 World Bank
Virtual water dependence
Flood frequency and human vulnerability/impacts
Supply security
More densly populated areas are located in the lower rainfall areas within the basin. The asymmetry between water availability and
population density is likely to become even more pronounced in the future.
Total live storage: 127,000 Mm3; about 75% installed at Kariba and Cahora BassaDam Capacity (km^3)
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Water Services
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Service delivery indicators by country
• Current status /baseline
• Trends and drivers
• Resilience attributes
Malawi Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe
Sustainability of surface water withdrawals (relative to
naturalized and environmental flows)2011 Beck and Bernauer 2011
Sustainability of groundwater withdrawals (withdrawals
relative to recharge)
Percent of freshwater resources withdrawn 7.9 0.4 1.5 21.0 2015 FAO Aquastat
Percent of arable and permanently cropped land area 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Percent of cultivated land that is irrigated 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Salinization
Specific species indicators
Desertification and land degradation 2008 IPCC
Riparian erosion
Status of natural water sinks (swamps, wetlands, bogs, etc.) 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Transportation infrastructure
Limited transport infrastructure
to access markets. Company
presence concentrated in
developed regions.
2007 FAO 2007
Water demand management
Sediment load in surface water
Historic hydrologic variability in the system 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Impacts of hydrologic variability
Drought and flood economic effects 2011SADC - Climate Change Adaptation
for the Water Sector
Global Competitive Index (1-7) (RANK) 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.4 2015 World Economic Forum
Institutions 3.5 3.2 4 3.3 2015 World Economic Forum
Infrastructure 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.5 2015 World Economic Forum
Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 3.5 4 4.1 2015 World Economic Forum
Health and Primary education 4.6 3.5 4.2 4.6 2015 World Economic Forum
Higher education and training 2.6 2.3 3 3.2 2015 World Economic Forum
Goods market efficiency 3.8 3.9 4.2 3.5 2015 World Economic Forum
Labor market efficiency 4.5 4 4 3.4 2015 World Economic Forum
Financial market development 3.3 3 3.8 3.1 2015 World Economic Forum
Technological readiness 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.7 2015 World Economic Forum
Market size 2.5 3 3.2 2.7 2015 World Economic Forum
Business sophistication 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.2 2015 World Economic Forum
Innovation 2.8 2.8 3.3 2.6 2015 World Economic Forum
Rank (out of 138 countries) 134 133 118 126
Change in precipitation/temperature/sea level rise 2011SADC - Climate Change Adaptation
for the Water Sector
Socio-economic impacts of climate change 2011SADC - Climate Change Adaptation
for the Water Sector
Trends in surface water withdrawals 2011 Beck and Bernauer 2011
Trends in water use for agriculture 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Development potential to change impervious surfaces,
stormwater flows, and sediment loads
Subsidence
Seismic Activity
Sea level rise60% of the population living
within 50km of the coast.2011
SADC - Climate Change Adaptation
for the Water Sector
Pollution incidents
Water quality
Flooding (wuantity/frequency) impacts to ecosystem 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
Drought impacts to Agriculture
Species migration/extinction
River organizations 2008 WB Zambezi irrigation study
WB Infrastructure index 2.42 2.29 2.37 2.29 2007 World Bank
Literacy Rate (15-24 years) 75.08 76.75 91.52 91.75 2015 UNESCO
Labor Force (% of female) 51.37 53.13 46.44 49.46 2010 World Bank
Most of the streamflow in the ZRB occurs in the single wet season - up to 90%. Rainfall is often erratic, unreliable, and subject to frequent
multiyear low rainfall cycles. Tributaries experience low or no streamflow in the dry season, when irrigation demand is highest.
Extensive riverine wetlands and floodplain areas have high economic and social value for agriculture, fisheries, wildlife, and tourism.
Current Consumptive Water use in the ZRB is estimated at atound 15-20% of total runoff.
Flood control (in lower Zambezi in particular) requires cooperation with upstream riparians including timely exchange of data, improved
flood forecasting, conservation of natural flood plain areas, and adjustments to how reservoirs are operated to mitigate damage.
ZAMCOM - Prepare rules for implementing provisions, determine environmental flow requirements in the main river network, prepare a
basin development plan and strategy that integrates development mplans and aspirations of the member countries including irrigation,
and supports the strengthening of IWRM by growing knowledge base, sharing a DSS and expertise.
3% across the basin
3.6% across the basin
Increasing. Reasons for increasing the area irrigated in the Zambezi Basin: Overcoming high hydrologic risk, Increased productivity,
Improved food security, Poverty reduction
Development plans of the riparian countries suggests that consumptive water use might increase up to 40% of total runoff by 2025.
Drought prone areas are likely to be more vulnerable to climate change than more humid areas. 90% probability that extent of drought
prone areas will increase.
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Risk Management
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Southern Africa is one of five regions worldwide exposed to serious risk of flooding in coastal and delta areas. Water scarcity is also
intesified through disrupted rainfall pattersn, increased ET loss, and increased water demand in all sectors. Sea level rise represents a
threat to the region - saltwater intrusion.
In 2001-2002, countries in Southern Africa experienced a food deficit of about 1.2 million tones of cereals. CC is expected to have an
adverse effect on agricultural production. Net productivity reductions of more than 10% are possible for maize, millet, sugar cane, wheat.
The 1983 and 1992 droughts cost Zimbabwe 3% and 8% of its GDP (respectively). 1992 drought in Zambia cost $USD 300 million and
resulted in a 39% reduction in agricultural output and 2.8% decline in GDP.
Risk management indicators by country
• Current status /baseline
• Trends and drivers
• Resilience attributes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mill
ion
s Population
Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe Malawi
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
GDP per capita (USD)
Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe Malawi
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)
Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe Malawi
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
% of electricity from hydroelectric
Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe
Cahora Bassa Dam (1974)
Itezhi-Tezhi Dam (1977)
Mexico City
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Daily Every third day 2x per week 1x per week Once in a while
Reliability
Federal District State of Mexico
Mexico City – Service Delivery
Key Water Security Messages
• Complex, multi-faceted and context dependent
• Greater challenge for poorer countries • Economies often more dependent on a variable resource
• Less capital investment to exploit the resource and manage risks
• Difficult to measure with simple predefined metrics
• Diagnostic framework supports structured repeatable assessments • Considers outcomes, actions, capital
• Considers resource management, service delivery, risk mitigation
• Seeks to balance social, economic, environmental outcomes
• Solution-oriented: identifies and prioritizes interventions
• Multiple scales: regional, country, basin, city
• Pilot studies underway around the globe at different scales
