Solar energy from the desert for HUMAN SECURITY in a world with10 billion people Prof. Dr. Michael Düren II. Physikalisches Institut Univ. Giessen, Germany

Solar energy from the desertfor HUMAN SECURITY in a world with10 billion people

Prof. Dr. Michael DürenII. Physikalisches InstitutUniv. Giessen, Germany

[email protected]

2nd Gießen workshop on Solar Energy Partnership between Africa and Europe

June 8, 2009, Gießen

Michael Düren, Gießen, June 8, 2009

Challenges of the 21st century

• Population growth

• Energy demand

• Climate change

• Water shortage

• Migration


Our society consumes a quantity of oil in 1 day that needed a geological production time of 1000

years!

Population growth and energy demand

Beijing

Nuclear

Renewables

Gas

Cole

Oil

Population CO2


Increase of CO2 concentration

The atmospheric CO2-concentration increases rapidly due to the combustion of fossil energy sources.


01/197901/1979 → 01/2003

Arktis

Climate change


Global climate change

The average world temperature and the sea level are growing due to the green house effect.

Arktis, 01/1979

Arktis, 01/2003

Water shortage and migration

Our problems are not limited to our energy supply. They will affect our future society in many areas.

Spain, 2008


Historic Contributions to Global Warming

Light at night, as seen from sattelite

Present wealth andhistoric emissions are related


"Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Freiheit"

Berlin Address by Federal President Horst Köhler 24 March 2009

Let us understand the battle against poverty and climate change as strategic tasks to be solved by us all.

As the main sources of the factors causing climate change, the industrialized nations are responsible for the people in developing countries having been hit hardest.

The fight against poverty and climate change must be one.

“The Credibility of Freedom”

Begreifen wir den Kampf gegen Armut und Klimawandel als

strategische Aufgaben für alle. Die Industriestaaten tragen

als Hauptverursacher des Klimawandels die Verantwortung

dafür, dass die Menschen in den Entwicklungsländern am

härtesten davon getroffen sind. Der Kampf gegen die Armut

und der Kampf gegen den Klimawandel müssen gemeinsam

gekämpft werden.


Challenges of the 21st century

We are in a race against time


Possible solutions of the energy problem:

• Energy saving: most important short term option (lower demand, higher efficiency)

• Cole, oil, gas: unacceptable greenhouse gas emission(CO2-storage is an improvement but not a solution)

• Nuclear energy: terrorism and proliferation… (13000 new reactors are not a good solution of the world energy problem)

• Nuclear fusion: not available in the next 50 years

• Photovoltaic: still too expensive to produce many Giga-Watts

• Biomass: limited availability and in competition with food production

• Wind: excellent options are the northern seas and the southern trade winds

• CSP: solar thermal power plants in the deserts: simple, no danger, abundant energy source


Concentrated solar power I

Parabolic trough technology: see talk by Kai Schmitz


Solar power day and night

Thermal energy storage (liquid salt)Andalucia (Spain)

Mirror-field


Concentrated solar power II

Fresnel technology

Plants can grow in the collector shade


The first Linear Fresnel Solar Steam GeneratorBy NOVATEC-BioSol (Germany), 1.5 MW, in Spain

Air cooledcondenso

r

No water Consumption

•Dry cooling•Dry cleaning


Concentrated solar power III

Solar tower technology see talk by Bernhard Hoffschmidt


Concentrated solar power IV

Dish-Stirling technology see talk by Peter Ruppert

Local electricity supply

Ideal for rural areas

Can be produced and repaired in any car repair shop


The sun, our nuclear fusion reactor

CSP-mirrors, our „Satellite dish“ for energy

Safty distance 150 000 000 km


Solar energy from the desert:

The solar energy irradiated on the deserts of our planet

in 1hour exceeds the global energy consumption

of 1 year


Economic potential, in PWh/y (= 1 000 000 000 MWh/y)

Global demand: 18 PWh/yDesert potential: 3000 PWh/y

144 PWh/y

125

~1100

~200

290

700

95

126

11~200


"Baltic-Cable" in Sweden

Transport of electric power

High voltage DC line has little power losses (no 50 Hz radiation i.e. no “electro-smog”)

Example: 5 GW, 800 kV; Losses: ~3% in 1000 km

Costs: Africa-Europe~ 0,01 €/kWh


HVDC

22

90% of the world population lives in a distance of less than 3000 km away from the next desert

Where is your next desert?


Proposal for Europe and MENA


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DesalinationExport SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil / GasCoalNuclear

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DesalinationExport SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil / GasCoalNuclear

MENA

Power demand, and supply scenario in MENA (Middle East & North Africa)

7 x7 x

Transition mix 2000-2050 including export to Europe and power for desalination


Power demand, and supply scenario in EU-25 with 17% import from MENA

Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies, nuclear and fossil energy can be phased out to a large extend.

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Import SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear

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Import SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear

EU


Power demand, and supply scenario in EU-25 with 17% import from MENA

Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies, nuclear and fossil energy can be phased out to a large extend.

>80% renewables


SECURITY ?


Is our current energy system secure?

• Fossil resources:

–limited, and dangerous (climate change)

–resources in the hands of a few suppliers (Gas: Russia,… Oil: Arabia,… and a few others)

–costs are increasing and unpredictable

• Nuclear resources:

–limited, and dangerous (proliferation, terrorism)

–technology in the hands of a few suppliers (not a problem for Europe)

–costs for safety are increasing and may become a problem


Security of renewable energies:• Solar power supply from >10 countries in MENA and South Europe

• Thermal storage of CSP regulates day/night demand

• Fluctuations and failures are averaged out by a distributed system of renewables (sun and wind and others);

• Large pump storage power stations for long-term storage (Fjords,..)

• Local fossil power stations (coal) should be kept as backup in case of a political crisis

• Sun and wind are reliable and long-term stable! Fuel costs will remain stable (0 €/kWh) for the next 50 years


Estimate of electricity costs from CSP

30


Prediction of electricity costs (for Germany):

31

Geschätzte zukünftige Stromkosten z.B. in Deutschland


Market introduction of CSP technology

1 conceptual

2 operational

3 bankable

4 commercial

.

1. Invention, basic idea2. Demo of functionality3. Demo of reliability4. Cost reduction for competition

Technology innovation Market introduction

Phase 0 Phase 1


Cost of introducing CSP (and saving the climate) =

• cost of saving a bank!

• The German government alone spent ~1 bn € in 1983 on research of nuclear fission technology

•5% of 1 year world weapon expenses (BICC 2009)

• investment of 5 €/person for a 10 bn people world of 2050

Barrier of Phase 1: CSP market introduction costa coarse assessment

• Main uncertainty: development of fossil fuel cost

• CSP capacity for market introduction : 10 GW collectors

• Operating time: 2500h/y 25 TWh/y

• Feed in tariff over 20 years: 500 TWh

• Tariff surcharge 0.1 €/kWh 50 bn € =2.5 bn €/y


MENACHINAINDIAECOWAS…

Who can pay? Who should pay?

Where are fast growing power demands in the proximity to deserts?

USACANADAEUJAPAN…


"Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Freiheit"

Berlin Address by Federal President Horst Köhler 24 March 2009

This crisis offers a unique opportunity in that now, it is clear to all of us that no-one can permanently create advantages solely for himself.

We, all of humanity, are in the same boat. And people in the same boat must help each other. In the 21st century, self-interest has come to mean that we must take care of one another.

In particular, we in the North must learn to rethink…

“The Credibility of Freedom”

Die große Chance der Krise besteht darin, dass jetzt alle erkennen

können: Keiner kann mehr dauerhaft Vorteil nur für sich schaffen.

Die Menschheit sitzt in einem Boot. Und die in einem Boot sitzen,

sollen sich helfen. Eigennutz im 21. Jahrhundert heißt:

sich umeinander kümmern.

Vor allem wir im Norden müssen umdenken…


Future vision

100% renewables

Liquid fuels from concentrated solar power (e.g. catalytic reactions at high temperature): Liquid hydrogen from water, Alcohol from CO2,…


A global and secure renewable energy concept

exists.

It is our job to make it happen in time!


References

• www.desertec.org

• www.physik.uni-giessen.de/dueren/sepa

• www.clubofrome.de

• www.dlr.de

• de.wikipedia.org

• …

Thanks to Gerhard Knies and the other colleagues from DESERTEC for providing a lot of the transparencies


Yes, we can!

Documents

Solar energy from the desert for HUMAN SECURITY in a world with10 billion people Prof. Dr. Michael Düren II. Physikalisches Institut Univ. Giessen, Germany