Socioeconomic theory and differential fertility;

The case of Saudi Arabia.

Submitted by:Azizah Linjawi

Saudi Arabia

Aim of the paper

Socioeconomic changes

Differential fertility

Questions of the study

• Does Saudi Arabia follow the development countries in fertility decline?

• Does the importance of economic and social development affect fertility patterns in Saudi?

• Are there any other cultural factors that may let Saudi follow another path in fertility changes?

My theoretical model

Structural changes

Individual modernity(change in values and norms)

differential fertility

macro

micro

Socioeconomic changes

Socioeconomic Structural changes

• Population growth.

• Urbanization.

• Education.

• Growth and per-capita income.

• Women status. (female participating in labor force , female education).

• Demographic transition.

Population growth

• population growth

• Total population reached 21.4 million.

• 15.7 million Saudis and 5.7 million non-Saudis.

• population increase 17.4% between 1992-1999.

Population growth

• Saudi Arabia, with one of the world's highest population growth rates at 3.2 % (estimated by the Saudi Central Department of Statistic Estimation), was for the first time seeking assistance from the UNFPA for health care management and health education programs

Urbanization

• roughly 49% of the total population was urbanized as early as 1970.

• 12% of the population was living in cities with populations of one million or more.

• The percentage of the population living in cities reached 79% by 1995.

• Urbanization reached 86% in 2000, with 25% of the population living in cities of over one million people

Jeddah city

Education

• The CIA estimated in 2002 that Saudi Arabia had reached an overall literacy rate of 84.2% for males and 69.5% for females.

• female graduates rose from 13 to 21,721, ending in a total that slightly exceeded the number of male graduates.

Female enrollment by thousands

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Pre-school

Elementary

Intermediate

Secondary

Higher

Women status

• The number of women graduating from universities has grown at an average rate of 2.5 times that of male graduates during the last decade .

• the labor force of native Saudi workers will increase from 3.17 million to 8.26 million between 1999 and 2020 .

Women participating in labor force

numbers of female particpating in labor force

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000

19-15

24-20

29-25

34-30

39-35

44-40

49-45

54-50

59-55

64-60

65+

age group

nu

mb

ers

of

fem

ale

2001

2000

1999

Proportion of Women participating in labor force

labor force in 2002

0200000400000600000800000

19-15

24-20

29-25

34-30

39-35

44-40

49-45

54-50

59-55

64-60

65+

age group

Female

Male

Total

Growth in per-capita income.

• Recently World Bank estimates show an average annual growth in GNP of only 2.3 during 1998-1999 despite rising oil revenues .

• CSIS report, population growth will be a critical threat to the Gulf countries of Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Yemen in the year’s between1990-2030. Oil wealth cannot offset a steady drop in per-capita income unless far more serious cuts in demographic growth take place.

Population and per-capita income

Demographic transition in Saudi Arabia

• 1980 the crude death rates dropped from 9 in 1000 people

• 4 in 1000 people in 1998, which is a decline of greater than half.

• Also the crude birth rates changed from 43 in 1000 people to 34 in1000 people.

Death in Saudi in 1999

Total death

0100020003000400050006000

Age Groups

Num

bers

by

Thou

sand

s

female

male

Differences in ASFR between 1991- 1999

Diffrences in Saudi Arabia ASFR

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

15 -19

20 -24

25 -29

30 -34

35 -39

40 -44

45 -49

Age group

AS

FR

TFR 1996

TFR 1999

TFR1991"

Source: Demographic survey 1999. Ministry of planning. Saudi Arabia.

Differences n Saudi TFR

Diffrences in Saudi Arabia TFR

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1991 1992-1996

1994-1996

1996 1999

Health

survey

Healthsurvey

Healthsurvey

healthsurvey

healthsurvey

DVsurvey

YEARS

TFR

Conclusion

• All recent statistical data as indicated before demonstrated that there is an ongoing demographic transition, but with a slower rate of change between vital events (especially fertility) and the rate of growth.

future question

• Can socioeconomic changes in Saudi Arabia aid in the changing of norms and values that are conducive to fertility decline?

?

My Future question

•

differential fertility

?

Seriocomic change

Answer

• Smile