Socio-Economic Profile_EThekwini_municipal Fiscal... · Web viewInternational Trade Figure 11.6 shows the percentage of export, import, and trade balance (as a proportion of GDP-M)

ETHEKWINIPROFILE

2 Demographic Profile

The KwaZulu Natal population was estimated at an average size of 9,9 million people. The largest

number of these people lived in eThekwini Metro (32.8 percent of the provincial population), followed by

uMgungundlovu district (9.5 percent) and uThungulu (9.4 percent) (Figure 11.1).

Figure 11.1: Total Population by DM, average 2002-2008

3,259,637

709,272

945,892

700,194

477,295 489,341

795,918

591,152

930,442

559,525474,948

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

eThekwini, 32.8

Ugu, 7.1

uMgungundlovu, 9.5

Uthukela, 7.0Umzinyathi, 4.8

Amajuba, 4.9

Zululand, 8.0

Umkhanyakude, 6.0

Uthungulu, 9.4

iLembe, 5.6Sisonke, 4.8

Source: Global Insight, 2009

Figure 11.2 shows the distribution of the population in eThekwini district by age group. In eThekwini the

largest proportion of the population was the age group 15-64 years (2,134,196), which constitute 68.4

percent of the district population1. This was followed by age group 0-14 years (842,410), which is about

27.0 percent. The elderly population made the smallest portion of the total population in the district at

128,529 (4.1 percent).

1 The provincial estimate was 6,033,961.

Figure 11.2: eThekwini total population by age group and gender; average 2002-2008

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

00-04

05-09

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Male Female


In eThekwini the majority of the population was females across age groups (Figure 11.2). eThekwini

occupies only a 2.4 percent share of total KwaZulu-Natal land, and yet is the district (metropolitan) with

the highest population in the province i.e It has a high level of population density.

3 Economic Outlook

3.1 Gross domestic product per municipality (GDP-M)

The KwaZulu-Natal region produced an average GDP-R of R185,0 bn between 2002 and 2008,

with the highest annual growth being experienced between 2005 and 2006 (5.25 percent). The

economy experienced positive growth again between 2007 and 2008, albeit at a slower pace of

3.52 percent. This slower pace of growth was indicative of the onset of the economic downturn

experienced by the country between 2008 and 2009 (Fig 11.3).

Figure 11.3: Districts Real GDP and real growth rate (constant 2000 prices-R1000), average 2002-2008

Ugu RGDP 6,703,608Real growth 4.1

uMgungundlovu RGDP 15,280,356Real growth 3.8

Uthukela RGDP 4,476,296Real growth 3.5

UmzinyathiRGDP 1,431,308Real growth 2.9

Amajuba RGDP 6,404,983Real growth3.4

Zululand RGDP2,924,467Real growth 2.1 Umkhanyakude

RGDP 1,992,979Real growth2.9

Uthungulu RGDP 16,844,759Real growth 2.6

iLembe ,RGDP 6,226,197,Real growth 5.8

Sisonke RGDP 2,158,815Real growth3.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

-5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000

Real

gro

wth

(%)

RGDP

eThekwiniRGDP 117,196,450Real growth 4.6

KZNRGDP 185,006,576Real growth 4.5

Source:

Global Insight, 2009

Between 2002 and 2008, the GDPR for KwaZulu-Natal was estimated at an annual average of R184,8bn.

There was significant growth of 29.9 percent from R162bn in 2002 to R210,4bn in 2007. EThekwini

municipality contributed 64.8 percent to the GDP-R, making it the single highest contributor to GDP in

the province. Uthungulu was the second largest contributor to the provincial GDPR at an annual average

of 9.25 percent and was followed by the uMgungundlovu district which contributed 8.43 percent. The

least contributor was Umzinyathi at 0.78 percent (Figure 11.4).

Figure 11.4: Districts contribution to KwaZulu-Natal GDPR, average 2002-2008

eThekwini, 64.85

Uthungulu, 9.25

uMgungundlovu, 8.43

iLembe, 3.36

Umkhanyakude, 1.06

Zululand, 1.50

Amajuba, 3.52

Umzinyathi, 0.78

Uthukela, 2.46

Ugu, 3.69

Sisonke, 1.09


Figure 11.5 shows eThekwini’s GDP-M by economic sector between 2002 and 2008. The district

experienced growth of 4.6 percent on average during this period with Finance, Transport and Trade

growing at steady rates of 6.4 percent, 6.3 percent, and 6.0 percent respectively. Electricity, Agriculture,

and Community services experienced low levels of growth, and the mining sector appeared to have been

shrinking. Manufacturing, Finance, and Community Services made the highest contributions to the GDP-

M at 24.3 percent, 20.5 percent, and 17.3 percent respectively. These three sectors were the driving forces

behind the growth experienced by this economy.

Figure 11.5: eThekwini GDP-M by sectors (2002-2008)

Agriculture

Mining

Manufacturing

Electricity

Construction

Trade

Transport Finance

Community services

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

Aver

age

Annu

al G

DPR

grow

th

Average sector contribution to GDPR


2.2 International Trade

Figure 11.6 shows the percentage of export, import, and trade balance (as a proportion of GDP-M) across

all DMs. The diagram reveals that the district’s imports were on average 29.8 percent of the GDP and its

exports 25.5 percent. The district hence had a negative trade balance of R4,9 million.

Figure 11.6: Exports, imports and Trade Balance (percent of GDP-M), average 2002-2008

-20.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

%

Exports Imports Trade Balance


3 The labour market

3.1 The labour force and the economically active population

Between 2002 and 2008, when the provincial labour force2 approximated 6,0 million people per annum

(approximately 60.0 percent of total provincial population), the economically active population (EAP) 3

was approximately 3,1 million. EThekwini housed more than 1,4 million of the province’s EAP, followed

by uMgungundlovu (360,000) and uThungulu (221,000). The smallest EAP size was found in Sisonke

(92,000).

As a proportion of the district’s labour force4, however, the district’s EAP was estimated at 66.8 percent.

At this rate, the district was the most economically active one in the province, followed by

uMgungundlovu at 60.6 percent.

2 Labour force is population aged 15-64 years.

3 The category EAP is made up of people who are either employed or unemployed. The employed consists of employers and employees, while unemployment are those not having a job but are actively seeking one (official definition), or they do not have a job, are actively seeking one or have given up searching yet still available for work at anytime (expanded definition).

4 EAP/LF = Labour participation rate or ratio.

3.2 Unemployment

During this period, there were about 562,000 unemployed people in the district. This was the highest level

of unemployment in the province, the lowest being in Sisonke (50,000).

The district’s unemployment rate56 was the lowest in the province, at 38.2 percent; an impressive 7.3

percent below the provincial average (Figure 11.7), and one of only two districts with below average

unemployment rates. The other district was Amajuba at 45.4 percent.

As with the rest of the districts, eThekwini’s unemployment rate was skewed towards Blacks (47.0%).

The respective rates for Coloureds, Indians and Whites were 31.1, 23.4 and 8.2 percent (Figure 11.8).

5 Unemployment rate is the ratio of the unemployed to the EAP6 Global Insight makes use of the expanded definition of unemployment, this includes those unemployed but not actively seeking a job

Figure 11.7: Unemployment rate by district, average 2002-2008

22.8

30.428.8

35.6

47.6

27.3

42.1

44.6

28.4

25.6

33.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50(%

)


Figure 11.8: KwaZulu-Natal and eThekwini unemployment rate by race, average 2002-2008

52.4%

8.2%

29.5%

23.2%

47.0%

8.2%

31.1%

23.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Black White Coloured Asian

KwaZulu-NataleThekwini


3.3 Employment

3.3.1 Total, formal and informal employment

During the period under review, KwaZulu-Natal employment totaled an annual average of 2,1 million

workers, and eThekwini’s employment level was the highest in the province, at 1,2 million. This was

followed distantly by uMgungundlovu at approximately 231,000. UMzinyathi was the district with the

fewest workers (33,000), outperformed even by Sisonke, the least populated district (43,000).

EThekwini’s formal employment was the highest in the province, at 77.7 percent of the district’s total

employment.

Manufacturing, Community Services, Trade, Finance and Household Services were the most dominant

sectors in the district’s formal employment, together accounting for about 86.2 percent of the district’s

formal employment (Figure 11.10).

Figure 11.10: EThekwini formal employment by economic sector (%), average 2002-2008

Agriculture, 1.6%

Mining, 0.0%

Manufacturing, 25.4%

Electricity, 0.7%

Construction, 4.6%

Trade, 15.0%

Transport, 6.3%

Finance, 14.6%

Community services, 21.1%

Households, 10.7%

Public administration

and defence activities, 4.1%

Education, 7.8%

Health and social

work, 6.7%

Other service activities, 3.2%

Households, 11.2%

Community services


Manufacturing, the leading employer in the district, was dominated by Textiles, clothing & Leather

goods, followed by Fuel, petroleum, chemical & rubber products, then Food, beverages & tobacco

products (Figure 11.11).

Figure 11.11: EThekwini formal manufacturing employment by industry (%), average 2002-2008

3.1%

8.1%

3.6%3.9%

0.4%

2.2%

1.7%

0.3%

2.0%

1.4%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Food

, bev

erag

es an

d to

bacc

o pr

oduc

ts

Texti

les,

clot

hing

and

le

athe

r goo

ds

Woo

d an

d w

ood

prod

ucts

Fuel

, pet

role

um, c

hem

ical

and

rubb

er

prod

ucts

Oth

er n

on-m

etal

lic

min

eral

pro

duct

s

Met

al

prod

ucts

, mac

hine

ry

and

hous

ehol

d ap

plia

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Elec

tric

al m

achi

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an

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para

tus

Elec

tron

ic, s

ound

/visi

on,

med

ical

& o

ther

ap

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Tran

spor

t equ

ipm

ent

Furn

iture

and

othe

r ite

ms N

EC a

nd

recy

clin

g


3.3.3 Informal employment

KwaZulu-Natal’s informal sector employment, recorded mainly in Trade, Construction, Community

Services, Manufacturing, Transport and Finance7 sectors, was generally skewed towards the Trade sector.

This was true in all but four districts, each having at least half the employment in this sector involved in

trade of some kind; eThekwini was no exception. The second most important contributor to this district’s

informal employment was ‘Community Services’ (Figure 11.12).

Figure 11.12: Informal employment by district and main economic sector (%), average 2002-2008

7 These are the sectors recorded by Global Insight; they are easier to monitor and collect data thereon than the remaining others.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

KwaZ

ulu-

Nata

l

eThe

kwin

iMe

tropo

litan

Muni

cipal

ity

DC21

: Ugu

DC22

:uM

gung

undl

ovu

DC23

: Uth

ukel

a

DC24

: Um

zinya

thi

DC25

: Am

ajub

a

DC26

: Zul

ulan

d

DC27

:Um

khan

yaku

de

DC28

: Uth

ungu

lu

DC29

: iLe

mbe

DC43

: Siso

nke

Trade Constr Comm serve Manufacturing Trans Finance


Figure 11.13 shows the distribution of eThekwini’s formal employment in the Trade sector, which sector

is the leading contributor to the district’s informal employment. The district’s formal employment in trade

was skewed towards ‘Retail trade & repair of goods’ at more than a third of the employment level,

followed by Sale & repairs of motor vehicles. The informal trade employment could also have followed a

similar trend as its formal counterpart.

Figure 11.13: EThekwini formal employment in Trade (%), average 2002-2008

Retail trade & repairs of goods39.6%

Wholesale & commission trade

19.4%

Hotels & restaurants17.9%

Sale & repairs of motor vehicles; sale of fuel

23.0%


4 Land cover and use

In 2008, eThekwini’s share of the KwaZulu-Natal soil was a miniature 2.4 percent, the smallest of all

districts in the province (Figure 11.14).

Figure 11.14: KwaZulu-Natal land by district (%), 2008

2.4%

5.4%

9.6%

12.1%

9.2%

7.4%

15.9%

13.7%

8.8%

3.5%

11.9%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

eThe

kwin

i

Ugu

uMgu

ngun

dlov

u

Uthu

kela

Umzin

yath

i

Amaj

uba

Zulu

land

Umkh

anya

kude

Uthu

ngul

u

iLem

be

Siso

nke


Contrary to the majority other districts, the district’s unimproved grassland amounted to only 11.1 percent

of its land, although thickets and bushland still accounted for a massive 22.5 percent.

Permanent and temporary cultivation was carried out on a satisfactorily large portion of the district’s soil;

12.0 and 12.6 percent respectively. The remaining portion of eThekwini’s land was used as depicted in

Figure 11.15. In all the other districts, these other land use categories were insignificant, mainly because

of the vastness of the districts’ territory.

Figure 11.15: EThekwini land use, 2008

0.7%

22.6%

11.1%

0.6%

0.3%

0.8%

0.1%

10.6%

0.9%

12.0%

0.1%

12.6%

21.7%

2.0%

1.2%

0.8%

1.9%

0.1%

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

Forest

Thicket & bushland (etc)

Unimproved grassland

Improved grassland

Forest plantations

Waterbodies

Barren rock

Degraded: thicket & bushland (etc)

Degraded: unimproved grassland

Cultivated: permanent - commercial sugarcane

Cultivated: temporary - commercial dry land

Cultivated: temporary - semi-commercial/subsistence dry land

Urban / built-up land: residential

Urban / built-up land: residential (small holdings: bushland)

Urban / built-up land: residential (small holdings: grassland)

Urban / built-up land: commercial

Urban / built-up land: industrial / transport

Mines & quarries


5 Crime

Between 2002 and 2007, there was a consistent decline in reported incidences of crime in the province

(2.4 percent annual average). UMkhanyakude, and uThungulu to a less extent, were the only districts

resistant to declining crime rates. However, 2003 forward saw a comprehensive decline, though with

differing magnitudes; the provincial collapse rate in crime incidents was 5.1 percent. EThekwini’s

negative growth in crime rates was very minimal, larger only than that in iLembe.

During the same period, 2002 to 2007, the most common crimes in this district were theft, burglary,

assault and robbery. Unlike in any other district, eThekwini had a unique experience of theft from motor

vehicle. As could be expected, the district also had the highest crime rates in the province, with crime

rates as high as 1,100 incidences per 100,000 people – half the rates in Amajuba, for example (average

less than 350 annual cases between 2003 and 2006) (Figure 11.17).

Figure 11.17: EThekwini crime rate by category (per 100,000 people), average 2002-2007

354.4244755

497.6731317

484.8408023

294.8861014

545.8123881

337.25639

381.5082549

292.6321973

1019.787349

359.8165604

Assault with the intent to inflict grievous bodily harm

Common assault

Robbery with aggravating circumstances

Malicious damage to property

Burglary at residential premises

Theft of motor vehicle and motorcycle

Theft out of or from motor vehicle

Drug-related crime

All theft not mentioned elsewhere

Aggravated robbery - General


6 Development

Figure 11.18 gives eThekwini district’s urbanisation and poverty rates, the Gini coefficient and the

Human Development Index (HDI). It can be seen from this graph that, similar to what we have observed

in all the other districts, the proportion of people living in poverty in the district has been on a decrease,

from 30.9 percent in 2002 to 27.7 percent in 2006. The district is undoubtedly dominantly urban, with

89.8 percent of its households located in the urban areas in 2002, this rising to some 91.4 percent in 2006.

Unlike in the other districts, the income gap indicator in the district, tough still high, remained stable at

0.60 throughout 2002 to 2006.

Figure 11.18: Poverty rate, HDI and Gini coefficient in uMzinyathi, 2002-2008

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Poverty rate Gini coeff Urbanization rate HDI


The overall human development in the district was the highest in the province at 0.66 in 2002, rising to

0.68 in 2006.

Documents

Socio-Economic Profile_EThekwini_municipal Fiscal... · Web viewInternational Trade Figure 11.6 shows the percentage of export, import, and trade balance (as a proportion of GDP-M)