SocialScience:Whatweknow,andwhatweoughttoknow

LIZZIEBURNS:Welcome.ThankyouallverymuchforcomingtotheForumonUSSolarGeoengineeringResearch.MynameisLizzieBurns.I'maFellowatHarvardSchoolofEngineeringandAppliedSciences.I'mjoinedherebymycolleague,GernotWagner,DavidKeithintheaudience,aswellassomeofourotherstaffmembers,aswellasTedParsonfromUCLASchoolofLaw.

We,atHarvard'sSolarGeoengineeringResearchProgramarereallythrilledtobeco-organizingthiseventwiththeEmmettInstituteonClimateChangeandtheEnvironment,whereTedistheco-director.Tedhasbeenfantastic.Thebackgroundpaperthatyouhaveinyourhandstoday,hereallyhelpedleadthedevelopmentofthatintroduction.Andthere'samazingcontributionsfromourspeakersintheretoday.Alotofdiversethinking.Soweencourageyoutoreadit,ifyouhaven'tdonesoalready.

Butfirstandforemost,we'dreallyliketothankthatAlfredP.SloanFoundationforfundingthisevent.EvanMichelsen,programdirector,ishere,aswellasBobLitterman,aboardmember,andwejustreallythankyouallforyoursupport.We'dalsoreallyliketothanktheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeaceforhostingusintheiramazingspaceheretoday.

Soasyou'llseeinyouragendas,thedayissetupwithfourgreatpaneldiscussions.Themorningislargelyfocusedonthesciences.You'llseemestartoutwithasocialsciencepanel,whichisthenfollowedbyanaturalsciencepanel,wherethediscussionwilllargelyfocusonwhatresearchishelpingusstarttolearnaboutsolargeoengineering,aswellaswhatstillremainsasgreatuncertainties.

Theafternoonis,then,largelyfocusedonpolicy.Solargeoengineeringis,ofcourse,globalincontext,sotherewillcertainlybediscussionsaboutinternationalpolitics.Thisevent,though,today,forthemostpart,isfocusedonUSpolicy.However,ofcourse,though,inthisinternationalcontext.

Withthatinmind,wereallywanttothankourspeakers,whoareincredibleforbeingheretoday.Andwealsowanttothankouramazingguests.Wearereallythrilled,becausethereissomuchexperienceinthisroom.Alotofdiversebackgrounds.Alotofdiverseperspectivesonsolargeoengineering.Sowe'rereallyexcitedforareallyrichdiscussiontoday.

Andbecauseofthat,we'veintentionallystructuredthepanels,so,attheircore,there'sgoingtobetimeforQ&Awiththeaudience.Soifyouhavequestions,byallmeans,therewillbeachancehopefullyforyoualltoaskthem,andweencourageyoutoengageinthesediscussions.

TheotherthingwejustwantedtoletyouallknowisthatthiseventisgoingtobeLivestreamed.Actually,Ithinkwe'reliverightnow.ThisLivestreamfootagewillalsobestoredonourwebsiteafterwardsforpeoplewhoaren'tabletoviewitlive.Andthehopewasthatpeoplewhoaren'tabletobewithushereinpersontodaycanstillengageandwatchthediscussionsthattakeplace.

Soforanyreasonyouaren'tcomfortablebeingonfilm,thereisanareainthebackoftheroom.You'llseesignsonthetablethatsay"NoFilming."Simplysitthere,ifyoudon'twishtobeonthecamera.Andwiththatsaid,ifyoudon'twishtobefilmed,butstillwanttoaskaquestionduringQ&A,simplywrite

yourquestiondownonanamecard,findastaffmemberlikeme,andwe'lltrytoaskthequestionforyou.

ThelastthingI'llmentionisthatwealsohaveanindependentdocumentaryfilmmakerhere.HisnameisBenKalina.He'srightthereintheback.BenisentirelyseparatefromHarvard,UCLA,orthisevent.He'sjustputtingtogetheradocumentaryonsolargeoengineering.Soheaskedtofilmsegmentsoftheeventstoday,wherehereceivespermission.Benhashisownpermissionsform.Ifyouareinterestedinbeingonhisfilm,byallmeans,pleasesignhispermissionsforms.Ifyoudon'tsigntheforms,youwon'tbeonfilm.Soifyouhavequestions,justfindBenorme.

Inthemeantime,thankyouverymuchforbeinghere.AndI'llturnthingsovertoGernot.

GERNOTWAGNER:Youallknowthedefinitionofsolargeoengineering.Yes,thereareimportantactionsbetweensolargeoengineeringandmitigation.Oftentheycomeundertheheadingofmoralhazard.Infact,that,initself,isoneofthecrucialresearchquestionsdiscussedtoday.

Yes,itissolargeoengineering,asopposedtocarbongeoengineering,deliberateinterventionsinthecarboncycle.Theyaretwoveryimportantinteractions.Wearefocusingonthesolaraspectofthat.Andcrucially,itisaboutresearch.Now,thatdoesincludegovernance,ofcourse,bothresearchintogovernanceand,forthatmatter,governanceofresearchitself,andtheinteractions.

Andyes,thereistheUSaswell,which,insomesense,islimiting,inthesensethatclimatechange,ofcourse,isaglobalproblem,globalsolution.Solargeoengineeringitself,ofcourse,hasverymuchglobalimplications.Thatsaid,weare,infact,focusedonUSresearchers,USresearchonthistopic.Andthere,too,ofcourse,contextmatters,whichispreciselywhereTedcomesin—TedParson—andtheveryfirstpanel,bothcontextoveralland,ofcourse,alsohowthatcontext,infact,haschangedrecently.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Thankyou.

Whenwefirstplannedthiseventaboutayearago,wehadafairlyclearexpectationofwhatwashappeningandwhyitwasatimelyevent.WeexpectedthatitwouldbequitelikelythattherewouldsoonbemovementtowardestablishmentofUSfederallyfundedresearchprograms,includingsolargeoengineering,andthatthesewouldprobablyincludefederalfundingforsmallfieldexperiments.

Andweimaginedthat,inthatcontext,wewouldbehavingadiscussiontodayabouthowtodothat.Youknow,whatresearchislikelytobefederallyfunded,whatshouldbe—whattheboundariesofsuchaprogrammightbe,and,inparticular,howtodoitresponsibly,intermsofprogrammanagement,independentadvicefordecisionmaking,transparency,publicconsultation,andothergovernanceissues.Weweren'tunmindfuloftheinternationaldimensionofthis,butwewerecenteredonUS,thinkingaboutfederalfunding,because,howeverinternationalthelinkagesandthecollaboration,eachnationaljurisdictionhasparticularprogrammaticandinstitutionalandgovernanceneeds.

Now,afairamounthaschangedsincethen.Somechangeshavebeenobvious,somehavebeenlessobvious.Andthosechangeshave,inimportantways,inflectedtheaimsforwhatwecandoheretoday.Ithinkthey'venotmadethediscussionanylessimportant,butthey'veunavoidablychangeditscharacter.Andwethinkit'simportanttoatleastsketchoutandframesomeofthosechangesandtheir

possibleimplicationsatthestarttohelpuskindofthinkanddiscussclearlythroughthemasweproceedthroughtheday.

Soitseemsclearthatthereisnowlessnear-termprospectofUSfederalresearchprogram,eitheranewdedicatedprogram,orofsignificantsupportforsolargeoengineeringwithincurrentones,givenbudgetconstraints.Atthesametime,there'sbeenasubstantialincreaseininterestandsupportforfundingofsolargeoengineeringresearchfromothersources—governmentalprogramsandothernations,andalsofoundationandotherprivatephilanthropicfunding.Withthesenewresources,therehavedevelopedsomesignificantnewprojects.

Soamongourco-organizers,mythreecolleagueco-organizersareallinvolvedinthenewHarvardSolarGeoengineeringResearchProgramthatyou'veheardabout,andwillhearalittlemoreabout.There'sanewgeoengineeringgovernanceprojectatUCLAthatI'mgoingtobeleading.PerhapsthemostimportantnewinitiativeistheCarnegieClimateGeoengineeringGovernanceInitiative,ledbyJanosPasztor,who'sherewithustodayandwillbespeakingalittlelater.

Inaddition,severalproposedoutdoorfiledexperimentsthathavebeendiscussedinthescientificliterature,andthoughtaboutforsometime,aremovingstepbysteptowardrealization.Andwewillhearmoreaboutthoseoverthecourseoftheday.

Now,whataretheimplicationsofthisforwhatwedotoday?Therearesomeimportantsensesinwhichthechangeofpoliticalcontextdoesn'tactuallychangeanything.Itdoesn'tchangeanythingabouttherealityofclimatechange,andthemagnitudeandtime,costs,andseverityofrisksthatitposes.Itdoesn'tchangeanythingaboutthesuiteofavailableoptionsandwhatweknowabouthowtoputthemtogether,intermsofcoherent,effectiveresponsestoreducerisks.Itdoesn'tchangeanythingaboutthelargescalereasonsthatsupportthepotentialvalueofresearchintosolargeoengineeringoptions.

Butatthesametime,itchangesallofthedetails,alloftheparticulars,withinthat.Sotobealittlespeculativeandpersonal,Iwouldsuggestthatboththeneedforsolargeoengineeringresearchandtheassociatedrisksofdoingthatresearchhavebothincreased.That'satension.Atthesametime,concernsaboutgovernanceofresearch,they'vedecentralized.They'vedistributed.There'smoreactorsinvolvedthanweexpectedtherewouldbewhenwethoughtofthisayearago.Soasthesourcesofpotentialsupportdistribute,there'smoreneedtounderstand,andspeakopenly,abouttheassociatedrisksandwhattheyimplyforgovernance,andperhapsmoreneedforexplicitcoordinationandjointdevelopmentofapproachestogovernance.

Theshiftinthepoliticalcontextmayalso,inallfrankness,inflectthebigquestionsofhowwethinkaboutdoingsolargeoresearch.Theprudenceofdoingitinparticularinstitutionalsettings,perhapstheprudenceofdoingitatall.Although,thereisthistension,wherebothneedandrisksappeartohavesharpened.MaybeaUSfederalprogramisnotjustlesslikely,butalsolessadvisable.Whatdoesthatmean?Theresearchisbestdoneelsewhere.It'sbestdoneinmoredistributed,coordinatednetworks.

Wealludetosomeoftheseissuesneartheendofourbackgroundpaper.Mysenseisthesearelikelytobe,andoughttobe,frontandcenterinourdiscussionsaswemovetowardspecificgovernanceissuesoverthecourseoftheday'sdiscussions.

Sowiththosebriefremarksabouthowit'schanged,whyit'sstillreallyvaluableforustobeheretodaytalkingaboutmostlythesamethings,butwithdifferentcontextanddifferentdetails,Ithinkthat'sallwehavetosayforopening.Andnow,weshouldjustmovedirectlyontothefirstofthefourpanels.

Thefirstpanelisonsocialscienceissues.Iwillbemoderatingthatpanel.MayIinvitethethreeofthepanelistswhoareheretocomeupandjoinme.

OK,nowIspeaktoyouinmycapacityasmoderatorofthefirstpanel.Sothefirstpanelisonsocialscienceresearchissuesrelatedtosolargeoengineeringresearch.Weputthesocialsciencepanelfirst,partlyjusttoshakeuptheconventionalkindofstepbystep,supposedlyrationalordering,where,first,youhearaboutthescience,andthenthesocialscience,andthenthepolicy.

Butalso,morecentrally,outofasensethatthemostimportantconcernsandrisks,andthemostimportantissues,posedbysolargeoengineeringareinthedomainofthesocialsciencesmorethantheyareinthedomainsofphysicalandenvironmentalsciencesandtechnology.Andalso,thebiggestrisksthathavebeenraisedrelatedtosolargeoengineeringanditspotentialdevelopmentanduse.

I'mgoingtomakeacoupleofreallybriefsortofframingremarkstogivesomecontextforthecommentsfromourpanels.Then,we'llfollowtheprocesswehopetodoforthewholeday,whichistheinitialpresentationsfromthepanelistswillbeverybrief—nomorethanfiveminuteseach.Then,thatwillleavetimewithinthesession,first,forsomediscussionamongthepanel,whereIwillthrowsomequestionsandcommentsandthingsouttothem,andthenforalotoftimeforinteractionandconversationwithyoufolks.

Soacoupleofpreliminaryobservations.First,whenpeoplespeakaboutsocialscienceissuesrelatedtogeoengineering,thereisoftenanambiguityoranoverlapbetweensocialscienceissues,policyissues,andsometimespolicyadvocacy.Thisisunavoidable,tosomedegree,becauseitisoftheveryessenceofsocialsciencesthatthey'reabouthowdosocietiesreacttothis,whataretheimpacts,andwhatdoesthatmeanyoudoaboutit.We'llhavealotofexplicitpolicydiscussionslateron.Thewholeafternoonisbasicallydedicatedtoit.

IhadawonderfuldiscussionwithabunchofmystudentsacoupleofeveningsagoaboutKimStanleyRobinson'sMarstrilogy,andwhatitmeansforenvironmentallawandconstitutionalissues.Theysteeredasteroidsallthetime.

I'dliketosteerthispaneltofocusprincipallyonissuesthatareclosertosocialscienceresearchquestions.

Now,it'sbeenclear,sincethefirstre-emergenceofdebatesoversolargeoengineeringaboutadecadeago,thatsolargeo,includingresearch,posedcrucialsocietalandpoliticalandpolicyquestions,andthatthesocialandpoliticaldomainsmediatethemostseriousrisks.Theyaremoreabouthowthetechnologiesaredevelopedandusedbywhomtoservewhatendsthantheyarenecessarilyaboutdirectenvironmentalconsequences,orparticularmodesofintervention,notthatthosequestionsaren'talsoveryimportant.Manyconcernsandquestionsandspeculationshavebeenraisedinthespaceofsocioeconomicaspectsofthesetechnologies,includingsomeverycolorfulandextreme,butkindofhardtoboundspeculations,liketheprospectofthesetechnologicalinterventionsbeingsoreadilyavailablethattheymightbedeployedevenbysmallnon-stateactorsinacompletelyunregulatedway.

Butitstrikesme,aswesuggestedintheopeningframingdocument,thatthere'sactuallythreequestionsrelatedtosocioeconomicaspectsofsolargeoengineeringthatarethemostimportantones.They'reprettybroad,buttheyseemtoemergeasthebigones.

First,theinteractionsofsolargeowiththerestof,orwithacomplete,strategicclimatepolicyresponse.Theseissueshavemostly,andmostprominently,beenraisedintermsoftheriskofdisplacingmitigationeffort,theconcernsthathaveoften,althoughineptly,beencalledmoralhazardconcerns.Willithappen?Whatcausesit?Whatparticularactivitiesinthesolargeospacemightbethetriggersofsuchdisplacement?Therehavebeenstudiesdoneatthelevelofindividualsurveysandexperiments,individualresponses,askingpeoplehowtheknowledgeofsolargeoinflectstheirwillingnesstosupportmitigation.Therearesomequestionsaboutwhatthosestudiestellusabouttherealquestion,whichisthelikelyresponseofpoliticalsystemstotheperceivedavailabilityofthese.

Atthesametime,therehavebeenmanyanalogiesofferedfortherolesolargeomightplayinthecompleteclimateresponse,andsomesuggestionsposedthattheremightbewaysofinfluencingtheseinteractionsinawaythat'sactuallyconstructive,ratherthandestructive.Sothere'sasetofquestionsclearlyinthedomainofsocialandpoliticalsciencesaboutinteractionsthatIwouldarguearethefirstofthethreebiggies.

Thesecondofthethreebiggiesarethequestionsbroadlyrelatedtoimages,oranalogies,oftencalledslipperyslope,orlock-in.Theconcernthat,evenifdoingalittleearlyresearchonthisismuchmoregoodthanill,somehowthosestepsmightputinplaceforcesthatpushtowardcontinuanceandexpansionoftheendeavor,evenifitturnsoutonbalancenottobeagoodthing.Again,theseareclearlyasetofquestionsthatarerelatedtoresearchabsolutelyinthesocial,political,andeconomicdomain,andtheyraiseallkindsofinterestingquestions—dosuchprocessesoperate?Bywhatmechanisms?Howseverearetheylikelytobe?Aretherewaystheycouldbemitigated?Whatstepsmighttriggerthem?Sothat'sthesecondbiggie.

Firstbiggieisinteractionswiththerestoftheclimateagenda,secondislock-in,orslipperyslope,andthenthethirdisthebroaderquestionofcitizenunderstandings,perceptions,preferencesthatwouldcontributetothequestionofthesocietalacceptabilityoftheendeavorinitsearlyresearchstages,aswellasinbroader,longertermquestionsofwhethernations,orotheractors,movetowardoperationaldeployment.Whatwouldbetheconditionsforasociallicensetoproceedwithcertainkindsofresearch?Whataretheconditionsthatwouldmediatethat?Isthisevenacorrectwaytoposeit,oristheveryframingofthisquestionsomehowtendentiousormanipulative?Thatisthethirdbiggie.

Now,I'malmostdone,andI'mgoingtoturntoourpanelistsinamoment.I'mgoingtoaskourpaneliststoconsiderthesethingsorrelatedquestionswithintheirexpertise.AndI'mgoingtoaskthemtodosowithtwootherexhortations.

First,inconsideringthesequestions,let'stry,asbestwecan,toavoidtheriskofconsideringsolargeoengineeringinisolation.Ineffect,let'snotfallintothetrapthatisdescribedbythefirstofmybiggies.Whenthecontextissevereclimaterisks,andtheaimtoreducethem,thatsortofdefinestheframefordebatesaboutgeoengineering.It'seasytoforgetthis.It'salsohardtounderstandhowtoprecisely,oraccurately,considerthis.

Soforexample,onemightargueforanapplicationofprecautionaryreasoningthatisone-sided,ifyouthinkonlyofprecautionaryreasoningaboutgeoengineeringinterventions,leavingyouwiththequestionofhowyouthinkaboutprecautioninthesenseofriskissues.

TheotherfinalexhortationIwouldgivetothepanelis,totheextentpossible,inaddressingyourtopicsandyourareasofexpertise,seeifyoucanhighlightforusthefollowingkindofproceduralquestions—whatrelevantsocialscienceresearchhasbeendoneonthequestionsyou'reinterestedin?Whathasbeenlearnedfromthis,andwithwhatconfidencedoweknowit?Andwhatdoesthissuggestforfurtherresearch,furthersocioeconomicpoliticalresearch,thatmightbeofhighvalue?

That'sallIhavetosayforopening.Letmejustconclude.I'mgoingtointroduceallfourofourpanelistsinturn,inadvance,andthenwecanmovesmoothlyfromonetothenext.SoourfirstspeakerisProfessorKateRicke,whohasrecentlymovedfromresearchpositionsattheCarnegieInstitutionandatCornellUniversitytotakeanassistantprofessorshipattheUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiegointheSchoolofGlobalPolicyandStrategy,whereshealsoholdsajointappointmentattheScrippsInstitutionofOceanography.KateholdsaPhDinengineeringandpublicpolicyfromCarnegieMellon.Sheisaclimatechangescientist,whointegratestoolsfromthephysicalandsocialsciencestoanalyzeclimatepolicyproblems,withparticularemphasisonuncertaintyandheterogeneity.

ScottBarrett,whowillgosecond,istheLenfestProfessorofNaturalResourceEconomicsatColumbiaUniversityintheSchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairs,andtheEarthInstitute.Scottisoriginallyaneconomist,butthebreadthofhisinterestreallytranscendsthatdiscipline.Heisaleadingscholaronglobalchallenges,rangingfromclimatechangetodiseaseeradication,andhe'sinterestedinhowinstitutionsandnormscanpromoteandsustaininternationalcooperation.

HolyBuckiscompletingaPhDindevelopmentalsociologyatCornellUniversityand,inthecomingyear,willholdaNatureConservancypostdocatUCLA.Sheholdsamaster'sdegreeinhumanecologyfromLundUniversityinSweden,andshepreviouslyworkedinthegeospatialindustry.Shehaswideranginginterests,mostlyrelatedtoclimatechange,energysystemtransformation,andhumanenvironmentinteractions.ShehasabunchofexcitingfieldstudiesunderwayrelatedtoalbedomodificationintheArctic,climatechangeimpactsintheImperialValleyofCalifornia,andtheBlueRevolution,inrelationofhumansocietiesandenterprisestotheocean.

Now,ourfourthpanelist,whomyoucannotyetsee,isRoseCairns.Roseistheonlyspeakerofthedaywhowillbejoiningusremotelyviateleconference.SheisaResearchFellowattheScienceandTechnologyPolicyResearchUnitattheUniversityofSussexintheUK.AtSussex,sheisthecoordinatoroftheNexusNetwork,whichisaninterdisciplinaryinitiativetobringtogetherresearch,service,andleadersinpolicy,business,andcivilsocietyoncollaborativeprojectsonenvironmentalissuesbroadly.SheisalsoaparticipantintheClimateGeoengineeringGovernanceResearchProject,whichisacollaborationbetweentheUniversitiesofSussex,Oxford,andUniversityCollege,London.RoseholdsaPhDinconservationpolitics,whereshestudiedtheGalapagos,fromLeedsUniversity,andshepreviouslyworkedintheenvironmentalNGOsector.

Sothatistheendofmypart.MayIinviteKatetoleadusoff.Fiveminuteseach,please.Kate,thefloorisyours.

KATERICKE:Allright,I'lltryandstayontrack.SoImean,Imightbeabusingmypositionasthefirstspeakeralittlebit,becauseI'mmostlygoingtotalkaboutmitigation.Butmypoint,hopefully,willcomeacrossthatit'sreallyimpossibletotalkaboutsocialsystemrisksfromsolargeoengineeringwithouttalkingaboutcontingenciesthatareassociatedwithmitigation.

AndsoIwantedtoshowsomefiguresfromworkthatIdidwithDougMacMartin,whoisgoingtobespeakinglater,wherewelookedatmitigationscenarioconstraintsontemperaturetargetovershoot.Andsothisisaperiodoftimeinwhichglobaltemperatureincreaseexceedssomesortoftemperaturetargetthat'sbeenset.Andso,inthisproject,wedecomposedintotwocategoriesmitigationtechnologies.Welookedatdecarbonization,sotechnologiesthatreducethecarbonintensityoftheenergysystem.Andwelookedatnegativeemissiontechnologies,sothingsthatcapturecarbondioxidefromtheatmospherethat'salreadythere,somethingthatthegeoengineeringcommunitymightcallCDR,orCarbonDioxideRemoval.

AndsowebenchmarkedourscenariosagainstthepolicygroupingsintheIPCCWorkingGroupIIIscenariodatabase.Thisisthis1,000-plusscenariosthatweregeneratedfromintegratedassessmentmodels,economicmodels,ofclimatechangeforthelastIPCCAssessmentReport.

Andsowhatwedidinthisworkthathadn'tbeendonebefore,wede-coupleddecarbonizationandnegativeemissionsofthesetechnologyportfolios,andthenextrapolatedthembeyond2300.Andsothesefigures,theyshowglobaltemperaturethroughtheyear2300,andthetimeseriesaredecarbonizationscenariosinblue,decarbonizationplusnegativeemissionsinred,andthisisrelativetothetwotemperaturetargetsthatarenamedintheParisagreement—twodegreesCelsiusabovepre-industrial,and1.5degreesabovepre-industrial.AndsoI'mshowingherescenariosthatareemploying,relativetothedatabase,aggressive,moderate,andweakdeploymentsofdecarbonizationandnegativeemissions.

Sointheleastaggressivecombinationhere,globaltemperaturestillhasn'tpeakedin2300.

Bytheway,thisstaristheestimatefromtheliteraturerightnowofwheretheINDCcommitmentsundertheParisAgreementputusin2100.Sorightthereonthelinewithourweakestdecarbonizationscenario,weakestrelativetothedatabase.Soyoucananchoralittlebitwhatweakmeanscomparedtowhatweakmeansintherealworld,right?

Ontheoppositeendofthespectrumisthemostaggressivescenarios,mostaggressivedecarbonizationinthescenariodatabaseplus,withsomegeoengineeringoptimism,anegativeemissionscenariothat'sevenmoreaggressivethanwhat'sinthescenariodatabase.Andthisgivesus,inouranalysis,ourlonescenariothathits1.5degreeswithoutanyovershoot.

SoIthinkthosetwofigures,forme,representthesortofeither/orfuturesthatmostgeoengineeringexperimentsandmodelsarecomparedagainst.Sothere'sobviouslythiswholerangeofpotentialfuturesthat'sbetweenthesetwoextremes.AndIthinktheimplicationsforrisksfromthingslikemoralhazard,lock-in,termination,they'reallquitedifferentunderthesedifferentmitigationpathways.

SoallthesescenariosIshowedyou,exceptforthese,haveasignificantamountofnegativeemissionsbakedintothem.AndintheWorkingGroupIIIdatabase,that'smostlycomingfrombioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage,orBECCS.Andso,whileBECCSandtheseothernegativeemissions

technologiesarenotcompletelyuntested,forthemostparttheyhaven'treallyprogressedpastthepilotprojectstageyet.

Whereas,decarbonizingtechnologiesalreadyproduceasubstantialamountofelectricity,andthey'realotmoreofaknownquantityintermsofeconomics,policy,regulation.Andwetalkalotaboutcatastrophicfailure,orterminationscenarios,withsolargeoengineering,butIthinkit'sworth,too,thinkingaboutallofthisintermsofcontingenciesassociatedwithfailureofviablenegativeemissionstechnologiestoemerge.Becausethere'shugeuncertaintiesassociatedwiththis.

Ontheotherhand,ifsomesignificantcapabilityfornegativeemissionsendsupbecomingviable,there'sarangeofpotentialfuturesthatatleastsomewhathavelimitedovershoot.AndIthinktheimplicationsforsocialrisksassociatedwithgeoengineeringherearealsoquitedifferent.Sothere'sthesetwoextremesthatareoftenpresentedinthisphysicalclimatemodeling,oneinwhicheverythinggoesperfectlyandwemeetthetargetwithoutanysolargeoengineering,andoneinwhichweimplementsolargeoengineeringtocounteractrisinggreenhousegasesendlessly,basically.

AndIthink,atthispoint,it'sledtothesortofunhelpfulfalsedichotomyinrisk-riskdiscussion,intermsofsocialscience.Andthesecharacterizationsofhighrisksolargeoengineeringarecontingentuponcertainimplementationscenarios.

LetmeseewhatIreallywanttosay.I'mreallynotsurewhetherthephysicalclimatemodelandcommunityisgoingtomovepastthedichotomy,orhowmuchtheyevenneedtofortheirpurposes,butIthink,socialscientists,wereallyneedtostoptakingcuesfromthephysicalsciencesinthisregard.Becausethiseither/orreallydoesn'tmakesense.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Wonderful.Thankyou,Kate.Scott.

SCOTTBARRETT:Thankyou.Thankyouverymuch.

SoIwanttotalkaboutthreethings.Thefirstistheinternationaldimension.IftheUnitedStatesconductssomegeoengineeringresearch,thatisbasicallyaninvitationforothercountriestocarryoutthesameresearch.IftheUnitedStatesdoesnotundertakeresearchinsomeareas,thatisnotlimitingtheabilityofothercountriestotakeresearchinthoseareas.Totheextentthatthereisconcernabouttheresearchthatmightbedone,notjustbytheUnitedStates,butbyanyone,thereneedstobesomekindof—I'llusethewordagreement,butImeanitinquotationmarks.Itneedn'tbeexplicit,necessarily.Butthereneedstobesomekindofagreement,possiblyaboutwhatshouldbedone,butprobablymoreimportantlywhatshouldnotbedone.

Therewillbeatendencyforalotofpeopletowanttorestrictdramaticallywhatcountriesshouldbepermittedtodo.Thiswouldbeamistake.Becauseifyoupursuearegime—I'llusethatwordinquotationmarksaswell—butifyoupursuearegimethatisstrict,fromtheperspectiveofindividualstates,theywillsimplyoptoutofthatregime.Andyou,then,havenolimitationatallontheirfreedomofaction.

Sothisisaregimeformutualrestraint,andifyou'relookingforananalogy,itwouldprobablybesomethinglikethenucleartestingregime,whichisimperfect.Butit'swrongtothinkofthingsinsomekindofidealsensewhenyou'redealingwithaworldof200sovereignstates.

ThesecondthingIwantedtodiscussiserrors.Theoneerrortheworldmightmakeisforonecountry,let'ssay,oracoalitionofcountries,evenmorelikely,tousegeoengineeringwhenitshouldn'tbeused,inthesensethatitwouldmakeothercountries,andallcountriesintotalmaybe,worseoff.That'stheconcernthatIthinkalotofpeoplehave.

Butthere'sanotherrisk,andthatisthatnoonedoesgeoengineering,whenwe'dbebetteroffifitweredone.Idon'tthinkmanypeopleareveryworriedaboutthat.But—andthisgetstoTed'sissueofsocialacceptability,andit'salsonotedinKerryEmanuel'scomments—there'satendencyforpeopletotreatverydifferentlytwodifferentsituations,oneinwhichaninterventionisdeliberate,andoneinwhichtheinterventionisinadvertent.Itjusthappens.Butwe'renottryingtodoit.It'snotintentional.Andwehaveanemotional,instinctivenegativereactiontoadeliberateinterference.

Weneedtounderstandthatthemostimportantthing,ortheonlyimportantthing,Iwouldsay,aretheconsequencesofwhatwedo.Andwhetherthoseactionscomeaboutdeliberatelyorinadvertently—andwearenowmaskingclimatechangebecauseofthereleaseofsulfurdioxide,sulfates,inthetroposphere.We'realreadydoingit,andIdon'thearanygreatoutcryagainstthat.SoIthinkthisisanareaforsocialscienceresearch.Therehasbeensomedone,particularlyintheareaofmoralphilosophy,butIthinkmoreworkneedstobedoneonthis.

AndthethirdissueIwantedtotouchonwasaboutinteractionsthatTedmentioned.Sotherearefourthingswecandoaboutclimatechange.Thefirstistoreduceemissions.Now,that'stheobviousthing,becausethatmeansnotputtingsomethingintheatmospherethatisn'talreadythere.That'sasconservativeasyoucanget.Thesecondthingwecandoisadapt.Thethirdthingwecandoissolargeoengineering.Andthefourththingwecando,tiedtowhatKatewassaying,wecouldhaveanotherengineeringinterventiontoremovecarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere.

Now,therehavebeennegotiationsgoingonforover25yearstogetcountriestodothefirstthing—tolimittheiremissions.Theseefforts,whicharethegreatestdiplomaticeffortsinallofhumanhistory—sonoonecancomplainthatnoonehastried.Peoplehavebeentrying.Andthereasonthatwehavefailed—andwehavefailed—thereasonisnotthateveryone'swaitingforgeoengineering.It'stheotherwayaround.Thereasonwe'retalkingaboutgeoengineeringtoday—solargeoengineeringtoday—isbecausethoseeffortshavefailed.Andthereasontheyfailedisbecauseyouhaveamassivecollectiveactionproblem,whereit'sinourcollectiveinteresttoacttolimitemissions.That'sabsolutelyclear.Butit'sintheinterestsofindividualstatestoholdbackandletothersdomore,andtheconsequenceisthateveryonedoestoolittle.

Adaptationistheopposite.There'saverypowerfulincentivetoadapt.Andit'sgoingtotakeplaceallovertheplanet.Andit'sprettyuncontroversial,becauseifonecountryadapts,nooneelseisaffectedadverselybythat,generallyspeaking.

Thethirdarea—solargeoengineering—now,that'smoreprovocative.It'slikeadaptation,actually,becauseitcanbedoneunilaterally.It'sunlikeadaptation,inthatothercountrieswouldbeaffected,andthat'swhyagovernanceregimeissoimportantforsolargeoengineering.

Butthefourthinterventionofremovingcarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere,whichis,bytheway,theonlytruebackstoptechnologyforaddressingclimatechange,itdoesnotrequireabehavioralchange.ThisisthekeypointIwanttomake.Itdoesnotrequireabehavioralchange,asdoesthereductionin

greenhousegasemissions,whichwe'reverybadatdoing.Whatitrequiresistheraisingoffinance.AndIthink,becausethecollectiveactionproblemisnotassevereforthecarbondioxideremoval,eventhoughitwouldbeexpensive—andbytheway,becauseitwouldbeexpensive,itwon'tbedoneunilaterally,and,therefore,itwon'thavethegovernanceissues.

Thesolargeoengineering,aseveryone'sgoingtosayheretoday,andit'spermeatedthroughoutallthedifferentnotesthatwereproduced,youdon'twanttorelyexclusivelyonthatatall.Butyoucan't,youknow,atthesametime,say,well,weshoulddoalittlesolargeoengineeringandthenexpectallthisemissionreductionstocomealongwithit,becauseithasn'thappenedsofar.SoIthinkweneedtoalsolookataresearchprogramoncarbondioxideremoval,andI'mnottalkingabouttherebioenergy.Youneedtodothisatsuchascalethatweneedtobethinkingofthisasanindustrialprocess.Thankyou.

HOLLYBUCK:Sowehaveabout10years,atleast,ofsocialscienceresearchonsolargeoengineering.Idon'tthinkwehavealotofactionableknowledgefromthatresearch.SoI'dliketotalkaboutwhy,andI'dliketobackgroundmycommentswiththisdeceptivelysimplequestion—whatissolargeoengineering?

Manyofthe30orsoempiricalsocialsciencestudiesunderstanditasanemergingtechnology.Andthey'vebeeninspiredbysimilarworkonbiotechornano.Butsolargeoengineeringisverydifferent,becausethere'snotthesametypeofcommercialmotivationtodevelopit,andtheresearchtrajectoryisgoingtobeabitdifferent.Sothesearesomeotherlensesthatareapplicable,tosomedegreeoranother.Andmanyofthesearemorepeople-centered.Andthelensyouusematters,becauseittakesyoutowardsdifferentresearchandgovernancequestions.

Soaconcreteexample.Afewmonthsago,therewasapaperthatcameoutbyateamatArizonaStatethatgarneredalotofpressattention.Andtheysuggestedthatyoucouldre-freezearcticiceusing10millionwind-poweredpumps.Soifyou'rethinkingofthisgeoengineeringschemeasinfrastructure,you'rethinking,well,howwillitbefinanced?Whatcountryisthesteelcomingfrom?Ifit'sadevelopmentproject,who'sgoingtobenefit?IsitgoingtobemaintainedbytechnicianswholiveintheArcticandcreateregionaljobs,orbuiltupbyforeigncontractors?Andhowarethenewsettlementsforcreatingitgoingtobeorganized,asresourceboomtownsorpermanentcommunities?

Alternatively,ifyou'rethinkingofthisideaasanidea,oranimaginary,whatprioritydoestheimaginaryhavetomakeusre-thinkourchoices?Clearly,re-freezingtheArcticwouldbeanexpensiveproposition.Buttheauthorsnotethatit'scomparableinscopetotheUSautomotiveindustry,ortheIraqWar.Soit'sexpensive,buteconomicallyachievable.Andthemoneyspentonmanufacturingwouldencourageeconomicgrowth.

Sothismatteroflenses,orframes,isonereasonthatwedon'thaveknowledgethatisfullyactionable.Ithinkweneedtobeusingmoreofthesesocial,orpeople-centered,waysofthinkingabouttheproblem.

Anothermainreasonwedon'thavemoreusablesocialscienceresearchisthemethodologicalchallengeofthistopic.Nextslide,please.

Sosocialsciencemethodsgenerallylendthemselvestoinvestigatingthingswhichalreadyexist.Andbecausethisisaspeculativefutureactivity,andonewhichpeopledon'tknowmuchabout,studyingitbringstwomajormethodologicallimitations.One,people'sperspectivesmayshiftovertimeasthey

learnmore,andtwo,whentheresearcheristheoneinformingparticipantsaboutthesubject,theirframingbiasestheresults.

There'salsopracticalreasonsthatwedon'tknowmore.One,cost.Two,itcanbetoughtobuildinternationalcollaborations,becausepeopleinothercountriesarefocusinglimitedresourcesonmoreimmediateissues.Andthree,socially,thingscanchangerapidly,sotheknowledgeyougenerateinonesocialcontextmightnotbeasrelevantinfiveor10years.Forexample,peopleareconcernedabouttheintegrityofdemocraticinstitutionsinawaytheyweren'tjustayearago.Thingslikethataregoingtobeveryinfluentialonperceptionsofthefeasibilityofsocialsolargeoengineering.

Sowhatweneedisamixofmessagesthatspeaktothevaryingquestionsandrationalesofdifferentstudiespicturedhere.Butgettingthekindofsocialsciencewewouldneedforabestcasescenarioofgoverningsolargeoengineeringisgoingtobeanuphillbattle.

I'vestatedinthewrittensubmissionsherethatIdon'tthinktheUShaslegitimacytotakealeadingroleonsolargeoengineeringrightnow.WhereIthinkweshouldfocusourattentionisonwhat'slessspeculative,andalsonecessary—carbondioxideremoval,asmycolleagueshavementioned.Ithinkthatthetwo-partdescriptionof[INAUDIBLE]conceptofclimateengineeringhasmisledus.Andyouseethisintheearlysocialresearch,whereyouhadrespondentstalkingaboutchoosingCDRstrategiesversusSRMones,whichisamisplacedquestion,whenwhatwe'relookingatisanSRM-CDRsystem.

Soweneedsocialsciencelookingathowtoscaleupnegativeemissionspractices,thingslikemigrationfromlandusechange,technologyadoption,introducingnewagriculturalpractices,citingandfinancingnewfacilities.Westudiedallofthisalready,andweshouldbedoingitinamoremission-drivenway.

Soinsummary,I'mcallingthistheCDR-firststrategyofgeoengineering.EmphasizeCDRwithindevelopmentdiscussions,trytobuilditup,andthen,ifresearchshowsasigntobepromising,alreadyhaverelationshipsinplace,andknowledgeable,well-educated,multinationalprofessionals,whocanhelpguideittobedeployedinawaythatmaximizesbenefittovulnerablepeoplesandotherspecies.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Thankyou.Sonow,wegettoturntoourremotepanelist,Rose,whoweseeinstillphotographupthereonthescreen.Rose,areyouincontactwithusonaudio?

ROSECAIRNS:Hi,yes.Canyouhearme?

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Hello.Yes,wecanhearyouverywell.Welcome.Thankyouforjoiningus.Pleaseproceed.Youhavethefloorforapproximatelyfiveminutesforyouropeningremarks.

ROSECAIRNS:Great.Thankssomuchfortheopportunitytospeak,andapologiesfornotbeingabletobephysicallytherewithyoutoday.

Mywrittensubmissionoutlinearguedthatmanyofthefuture,social,andpolitical,andindeedphysicalimplicationsofafuturesolargeoengineeringprogramareradicallyunknowable,aswellasbeingendlesslycontestable.Andmanyarenot,therefore,amenabletoempiricalstudy.AndIquestionthewisdomofpursuingaresearchagendainthisarea.

Iwentontosuggestthatanimportantroleforsocialscientistsshouldinvolvefacilitatingspacesforcriticalsocietalreflection,orwhetherthisdirectionforresearch,amongthemanyotherapproachestoclimatechangethatexistorcouldberesearched,isdesirableoracceptable.SoIwon'trehearsetheseargumentstoyoumuchmorehere.

Instead,I'dliketotakeacoupleofminutes,atthispoint,tohighlightwhatIseeasproblematicallypartisanframingofthiseventinfavorofsolargeoengineeringresearch,andtooutlinethewaysinwhichthismattersforongoingdiscussions,notjustaboutgeoengineering,butabouthumanitydealswithclimatechange.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Excuseme,Rose.Icansensefromthepuzzlelooksintheroom,Ithinkyou'respeakingalittletooquicklyforclearhearingintheroomovertheSkypeconnection.SoIwonderifIcanaskyoutoslowdownyourwordsperminuteby10%to20%?

ROSECAIRNS:IthinkI'mworriedabouthittingthefiveminutemark,soOK,apologies.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Yeah,youknow,youcangotoseven.

[LAUGHTER]

ROSECAIRNS:Thanks.SoI'lljustrepeatthelastsentencethatImade,then.SoI'mnotgoingtotalkoverwhatIputinmybackgrounddocument,butIdowanttotalkalittlebit,andperhapstocritique,whatIseeisquiteaproblematicallypartisanframingofthiseventinfavorofsolargeoengineeringresearch,andtooutlinethewaysinwhichIthinkthismattersforongoingdiscussions,notjustaboutgeoengineering,butabouthowhumanitydealswithclimatechange.

Sotheintroductorydocumenttothiseventsuggestedthat,evenifoneisopposedtoeventualdeployment,oneshouldbegenerallysupportiveofresearch,asitiscrucialtoinformanyfuturedecisions,includingadecisiontorejectgeoengineering—onpagesix.Indeed,thedocumentgoessofarastocharacterizecriticsofresearchinthisareaasholdinganextremeposition,whichseemstobeasomewhatunhelpfulrhetoricalmaneuver.

However,thewaythebackgrounddocumentisitselfwrittenseemstounderminetheclaimthattherewouldeverbeenoughknowntooutrightrejectgeoengineering—solargeoengineering.Inthisdocument,everyproblem,concern,orevenfundamentalobjectionraisedissimplyframedasanareaformoreresearch.Itisdifficult,therefore,toimagineamomentinafutureresearchprogramwhen,collectively,theproponentsofthisapproachwouldsay,weknowenough,thisseemslikeabadidea.Rather,thedominantdynamicatplayappearstobeoneofwhatyoumightcallanengineeringmindset.

Obviously,nooffensetoanyengineersintheroom.Thisisn'tbadinitself,ofcourse.Butitisproblematicinthiscontext,asitappearsthatallproblemsorobjectionsareunderstoodaspracticalchallengestobeovercome,ratherthanfundamentalobstaclesorindicationsthatthisisnotaviableoptionfordealingwithclimatechange.Giventheapparentdominanceofthismindsetinthisfield,itismoreplausibletoimaginethat,whateverissuesorproblemsmightberevealedbyanincreasinglyscaledupresearchprogram,thesewouldsimplybere-framedastechnicalchallenges,ratherthanreasonsforabandoningtheendeavor.Thisdynamic,combinedwiththeframingofopponentsorcriticsofresearch

asextreme,makesitfeellikethespaceforrealcriticalreflectiononthedesirabilityofthisdirectionofdevelopmentseemslimitedbythetermsofdebate.

Compoundingthisissue,andit'ssomethingthat'sbeentalkedaboutbyothershere,isthefactthatthisdiscussionissolelyaboutsolargeoengineeringresearch,ratherthanbeingabroaderdiscussionaboutresearchintoclimatechangestrategiesingeneral.Thisseemstoconstraintheparametersofwhatcanbebroughttothetableasarelevanttopicfordiscussion.Giventhatresourcesforresearcharefinite,thequestionistowherewe,asasociety,shouldallocatethesefunds,andhencewheresocietalattentionshouldbedirected.Itmeansthatgeoengineeringneedstobeconsideredamongallthemanyotherapproachesfordealingwithclimatechange.Ratherthansimplyasking,researchonsolargeoengineering,yesorno,thequestionshouldbe,howdowerespondtoclimatechange?Whatareouroptions?

Anotherproblematicissueintheframingofthisdiscussionistheattempt,Ibelieve,toseparatediscussionofthegovernanceofresearchfromgovernanceofdeployment.Thewellrecognizedexperimentalnatureofanyultimatedeploymentatglobalscalemeanthat,whileitistruethatnotallsmallscaleexperimentscanbesaidtoconstitutedeploymentassuch,ontheotherhand,essentially,deploymentwouldberesearch.Furthermore,giventheimpossibilityofextrapolatingfromsmallscalestoglobalscale,andthedriveforevermorecertaintyaroundimpact,itwouldseeminherenttoresearchinthisareathattherewouldbeatendencytowardsscalingupofresearchtoevergreatergeographicalandtemporalscales,meaningthataconsiderationoftheissuesraisedbytheselargerscaleinterventionsis,Iwouldargue,crucialtodiscussionsofwhethertoembarkonthisresearchtrajectoryinthefirstplace.

Inaddition,theveryexistenceofsignificantresearchprograms,whatevertheirimpactonthephysicalenvironment,willfundamentallyalterinunpredictablewaysthesocialandpoliticalcontext,inwhichclimategovernanceofthefuturewillbeconducted.Thus,onmultiplelevels,researchanddeploymentareinextricablefromoneanother,andIbelievethatdiscussionsofthegovernanceissuesraisedbytheprospectoffulldeploymentofsolargeoengineeringneedtobeafundamentalpartofdiscussionsaboutresearch.

Followingfromthis,Iwouldliketosuggest,perhapscontroversially,thattheonusatthisstageofdevelopmentshouldbeonproponentsofresearchinthisareatooutlineplausiblescenariosunderwhichthesetechnologiesmightbegovernedinacceptableways.Ihaveyettohearanydescriptionofafuturesolargeoengineeredworldthatsoundstomeanythingotherthandystopian,orhighlyunrealistic.

Forexample,intermsofthesocialassumptionsmadeaboutthefeasibilityofcollectiveinternationalagreementontemperaturetargets,ortheideathatissuesaroundattributionandcausality,particularlyasextremeweatherevents,wouldnotbeaperennialproblem,ortheideathattrust,orlackofit,amongsttheinternationalcommunitywouldnothamperdeployment,orthatcostlyandpotentiallydestabilizingmilitarizationwouldnotbeassociatedwiththetechnology.

Asaresultofallthis,Idonotthinkthatthis,amongmanyoftheotherpossibledirectionsforresearchonclimatechangesolutions,iswherewe,ashumanitycollectively,shouldbeallocatingscarceresources,academictime,andpolicyattention.Thanks.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Thankyou,Rose.

Iwanttomakesurewehavelotsoftimefordiscussionandengagementwiththefloorparticipants.Butbeforewedothat,I'mgoingtoposeonequestiontoeachofourpanelists.It'sjustsohardtochoose.Thematerialissorich.I'llgoinorder.

Kate,yourworksuggestedthatthemodel-basedstudiesoftheroleofclimateengineeringhavesufferedfromafalsedichotomy,inpartdrivenbythetechnicalneedsofclimatemodelerstohavesimple,standardizedscenarios.ButIdon'tthinkIclearlyheardwhattheresearchprogramwasthatyouwouldadvocate,inordertotranscendthatfalsedichotomyandhelpinformamorerealisticsetofdecisions.

Canyousketchforus,one,whatthatmightbe?Or,ifI'mmisunderstandingorposingthequestionincorrectly,ortendentiously,thenpushbackandtellmewhatitshouldbeinstead.

KATERICKE:Doyoumeanfromthephysicalsideorfromthesocialscienceside,intermsofmodelingresearch?

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Yourchoice.Whicheverismostimportantandvaluable.

KATERICKE:Right,soImean,fromthephysicalmodelingside,Isaidthatthere'softenthisfalsedichotomyinthestudies.Andbecauseofthat,andbecause,toanextent,socialscienceshavetakenitupandrunwithit,wegetsortoftheseextrapolationsaboutrisks,andaboutoursocialscienceimpactsthatarebasedonimplementingtheseextremescenarios.Idon'tthinkthat,necessarily,physicalsciencehastochange,becauseitmakessensefromaclimatemodelingperspectivetomodelextremescenarios.Becauseyou'realwayshavingasignaltonoiseproblemintheclimatemodels,youwanttobeabletoteaseoutmechanisms,andsoyoukindofwanttohitthingswithahammerinordertobeabletodothat.Inmyexperience,atleast.AndImean,I'verunthesescenarios,soI'mtoblameasmuchasanyoneelse.

However,likeIsaid,Ijustthinkthattherisksassociatedwiththeeither/orscenariosarenotrepresentativeofthewholeriskspacethatwouldexistwhenwethinkaboutactuallyimplementinggeoengineering.AndImean,Ithinkjusttostartistothink,whenwe'retalkingaboutimpacts,models,whenwherewe'retalkingaboutstrategiceconomicmodels,tothinkaboutallofthescenariospacethatoccursbetweenthosetwo.Andthat'snothardtodo,necessarily,fromamodelingstandpoint.Itjustrequiressettingoutonourownassocialscientiststotakeownershipofabroadersetofscenarios.AndIthinkthetoolstosupportusfromthephysicalsciencesarethere,intermsofemulatorsandbeingabletousetheoutputfromthephysicalsciencestosupport,fromaphysicalclimatestandpoint,whattheoutcomesassociatedwiththisbroaderrangeofscenarioswouldbe.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Thankyou.

Scott,inyourremarksandbackgroundpapertoday,andreally,inmuchofyourpriorwork,you'vedoneawonderfuljobatabstractingverycogentlytheessentialstructuralcharacteristicsofthecollectiveactionproblemsamongnationsthatexistondifferentaspectsofpotentialclimateresponse.Somitigation—aseverecollectiveactionproblem,asevincedbythesustainedfailure.Adaptations—strongincentivestodoitatthenationallevel.Carbon—stillacollectiveactionproblem,butinasense,aneasierone,lesspernicious,becauseit'sinthedomainofjustinvestinginsolutions,ratherthanpolicychangesgoingagainstexistingpoliticalconstituenciesandbehaviorchange.

Idon'tthinkIclearlyheard,inyourremarks,asimilarlycompactcharacterizationofyourviewofwhatthisessentialstructureofthestrategicproblemamongnationsisregardingsolargeoengineering,andhowthatfitsintothewholething.Canyoubrieflyspeculateonthat?

SCOTTBARRETT:Speculationistherightword,becausewedon'tevenknowwhatgeoengineeringisgoingtobe.Wetalkaboutitasifweknowwhatit'sgoingtobe,andIthinkwedon't.Imean,IagreewithRosethatthere'sthisintimateconnectionbetweendeploymentandR&D,andyoucan'treallyseparatethem.

Forexample,ifyouwerenevergoingtodeploy,there'snopointindoingtheresearch.Bytheway,theresearchmayshowyouthatdeploymentisabadidea.SoIthinkforpeopletothinkthat,ifyoudoresearch,it'ssomekindofslipperyslope,Idon'tbuythatargumentatall.ButasIsaid,forresearch,youwouldhavea—callitaregime,I'llbealittlenonspecificabouttheformitmighttake—butyouwouldhavearegimeaboutmutualrestraint.That'swhereyouhavesomeleverageintheinternationalsystem.Onecountryagreesnottopursuesomethinginexchangeforothercountriesagreeingnottopursuesomething.

Andthisisaveryimportantmotiveforwhycountrieswouldengageinaregimelikethis.Becauseotherwise,whatcountrieswantisafreehand.Theywanttobeabletoactontheirown.Soyouwouldneedthatinanykindofdeploymentregime.YouwouldneeditanykindofR&Dregime.

Thedefaultisthereisnone.Thereisnoregimeatall,whichmeansprettymuchthatcountriescanactastheyplease.Andit'stemptingtowantto,again,constrainwhatcountriescando,butyouhavetobeverycarefulaboutthat,becausethey'lljustsimplymoveoutsidethesystemthatyou'retryingtoconstrain.

Now,oneareathatIthink—again,I'vebeenthinkingaboutthis.You'relookingforanalogies,andyou'rethinkingabouthowthisisgoingtounfold,itisaboutspeculation.Sotheviewwe'vehad,upuntilthispoint,Iwouldcharacterize,isthere'ssome—ifyou'llforgivethisdescription—butthere'samanwithalongwhitebeard,whoisstandingnexttoaswitch.Andthegeoengineeringisthismanpullstheswitch,particlesareemitted,andtemperatureisaltered.Idon'tthinkthat'showit'sgoingtohappenatall.

Ithink,instead,therewillbelotsofdifferentkindsofintervention.Therewillbetendenciesforstatestowanttotargetindividualproblems,totheextentthat'spossible,towanttolimitthesideeffects,becausethatwouldallowthemtogetpermissiontogoforward.Theseareveryearlydays,whenwethinkaboutthistechnology,andIknowthereareseverelimitations,andDavidKeithandotherswillexplainwhattheyare,abouthowmuchyoucancompartmentalizethings.ButIthinktherewillbeatendencyinthatdirection.

Andananalogy—andIthinkit'shelpfultouseanalogies,although,generallyspeaking,everythingwe'retalkingabouthereisunprecedented—butananalogyiswith,funnyenough,Ithinkglobalpositioning.TheUnitedStateshasaGPSsystem,whichismadeavailabletotheworldforfree.Sothat'slikedoinggeoengineeringandhelpingtheworldforfree.ButtheUnitedStatesalsoreservestherighttopullthisatanymoment.Andbecauseofthat,Europeisdevelopingitsownsystem.Notsurprisingly,Chinahasassisted.Russia,India'sdevelopingsomething.Notalltheseareatthesame—theEuropeanoneisatthesamescaleastheUSone.

Sonowwhatwe'retalkingaboutisaverydifferentworld,inwhichthesedifferenttechnologies—it'snotsomuchthatthey'recompeting,butthey'rehavingtocoordinatetheiractions.DanSchragalso,heandIwerethetwothatInoticedmentionedthisinourlittlenotes,thatprobablywhatweneedtobethinkingofisamultipleofinterventions.AndIwouldsaythey'realsogoingtobetiedtomultipledifferentkindsofadaptationinterventions.

SothegeoengineeringIthinkwe'retalkingaboutforthisplanetisgoingtobemuchmoreextensivethanasimplesingleoperation.Andagain,youwouldhavearegimethat,inthiscase,wouldcoordinate.Theworldisveryeffectiveatcoordination.We'reverygoodatthat.Theonethingthatweshouldalwaysrememberisthatwhatwe'rebadatisvoluntarycooperation,whichistheeffortwe'veledtotrytoaddressclimatechange.Weshouldcontinuewiththat.Butyouhavetounderstand,thetendencyoftheglobalsystemis,whenthatfails,todotheseotherthings.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Thankyou.

Holly,inyourremarksinyourbackgroundpaper,youdidaverycogentjobofoutliningthesocialandpsychologicalconditionsthatwouldsupportageoengineeringinitiative,initiallyconcentratingstrongly,perhapsexclusively,uponthecarbonsideratherthanthesolargeoengineeringside.I'mgoingtoaskyoutospeculate,too,andkindofthinkaboutsecondsteps.

When,andhow,ifatall,canyouseeanacceptablemovementtowardconsiderationofsolargeoengineeringintheframeworkthatyou'veidentified?AndIthink,youdon'thavetothinkaboutdeploymentorstufflikethat.Imean,ifyouwanttolimititjusttotheresearchspace,andsaykindofwhen,orunderwhatconditions,canyouseesufficientsocietallicensesupportforaresearchprogramthatincludesasolarcomponent,ornotatall?

HOLLYBUCK:Ithinkthatthewaythingsarenow—Imean,asyouknow—everybodyprobablyknows—thattheUSdoesn'thaveafederalresearchprogramonthis.Andalotoffundingisdonebyprivatesources,philanthropicsources.Thathasalotofproblems,inthat,ideally,you'dwantanopencallforproposals,sobright,youngpeoplewithdifferentideascanputthemin.You'dwantpeerreviewwithcertaincriteria,allthethingsthatyouhavetodoifyouwanttogetanNSFgrant.Iwouldreallyliketheirstandardstobeappliedtoallthenewphilanthropicinitiatives.

AndIthinkit'sappropriatetobedoingsolargeoengineeringresearchlikethat.Ijustdon'tthinkthat,rightnow,theUSshouldbefederallyfundingthis.Becauseifyougotalktocitizensinothercountries—sinceIhave—aboutthis,andthey'llsay,oh,it'sthiskindofAmericanidea.PartofthatisprobablybecauseI'manAmericantalkingtothemaboutit.Butpartofitisthattheymeanthatit'sboldandit'stechnological.

Andayearago,theywereassociatingAmericanvalueslikepragmatismoptimism—thosequalitiesthatwerepresentaroundtheworld.Andnow,ifyougohavethatconversation—andI'dliketoempiricallytestthis,I'mnotsure,butIhypothesizethatthissolargeoengineeringisanAmericanidea,anditmeansegotismandbullyinganddoingwhatyouwant,andnotconsideringothercountries.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Andrecklessness.

HOLLYBUCK:Yeah.SoImean,allofthosethingshavebeenAmericatodifferentpeopleindifferenttimesinhistory.Andnowwehavethisoldfacetofthemcomingbackup,andIdon'tthinkwecanlegitimatelyputfederalmoneyintothisrightnow.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Thankyou.

OK,Rose,yourremarksandyourwrittenpresentationbothadvanceaverycogentcasesuggestingakindoftendentiousness,orbias,oraprejudgingoftheconclusion,amongthosewhothinkit'simportant,orvaluable,or,onbalance,advantageous,toproceedwithsolargeoengineeringresearch.Youarguequiteforcefullyforthat,andyou,ineffect,poseacompletelyfairchallenge,whichisoftheformofasking,tothosewhothinkweshouldproceedwiththisresearchprogram,whatconditionswouldleadyoutochangeyourmind?

Now,oneofmywonderful,oldcolleaguesatapriorjob,whoworkedinempiricalresearchinthedomainofsocialandhealthandindividualwelfarepolicy,wasfondofsaying,inpolicydebates,whoeverownsthenullhypothesiswins.Soitseemstomethere'safairwaytointerpretthatthrustofyourremarksasbasicallysaying,youdon'townthenullhypothesis,Ido.

Well,fairenough.Wecanmovetotheleveloffightingoverwhoownsthenullhypothesis.Butthecompletelyfairquestionyouposetothosewhothinkresearchshouldproceed,Ithink,canbeposedbacktoyouandthosewhoarguethatitshouldnot,onthesamebasisasyouargue.Whatconditions,ifany,wouldleadyoutoconcludethatproceeding—now,youcanmakethequestioneasierbylimitingittowithasolargeoengineeringresearchprogram,orifyouwanttomakeitevenharderforyourself,youcansay,withoperationaldeploymentofsolargeoengineering—whatconditionswouldleadyoutoconcludethatitwasOK?

AndI'veactuallygottwoforyou.That'sone.Youcanthinkaboutitforamoment.

Andtheotheroneisthere'sasenseinwhichyourremarkssuggestanenhancedhumilityleadingtoeventhecompleteretreatfromthestageofaresearch-orientedperspective.Youargueaboutsortofdeepuncertainties,anunknowabilityaboutimplicationsinsocialaspectsofsolargeoengineering.AndIthinkyouactuallycometothepointofsayingresearchaboutthiscannotbedoneand,therefore,theonlyproperorlegitimateroleforsocialscienceresearchersisto,ineffect,beengagedparticipantsinaprocessofsocialdeliberationcomingtokindofacceptable,legitimatedecisionsabouthowtoproceedonclimatechangecomprehensively.

Isthisreallycorrect?Andareyoureallyassertingthatthereis,ineffect,noroleforsocialscienceresearch,understoodasresearch?Sotwoofthem.Iacknowledgethey'rebothhard.Youcanpartlypunt,butyoucan'tcompletelypunt.

ROSECAIRNS:Thanks.AndIthinkit'sanicetactictoreturnthequestionbackinthatway.

Imean,itis—myquestion,asyouasyourightlysaid,wasabouttheconditionsunderwhichpeoplewouldchangetheirmind.Imean,Ihaveyettohearanythingresemblingadescriptionofafuture,asImentionedinmyremarks,thatcomesclosetoadescriptionoftheworldthatwelivein.Itappearstomethatpeoplearedescribinganimaginaryworld,inwhichthingsthatweknowaboutthewayinwhich

politicsworks,andthewaysinwhichsocietiesinteractwithoneanother,andtheroleindeedofdifferentkindsofknowledges,itisn'ttheworldthatweknow,theworldthattheirdescribing.

Sowhatwouldneedtohappenformetothinkthatsolargeoengineeringcouldgoahead?Iwouldhavetofundamentallychangemyunderstandingoftheworldthatwelivein.Itwouldhavetobeotherthantheworldthatwelivein.Andunderstandingthemomentatwhichsolargeoengineeringresearchcouldgoahead,asIsay,Idon'tthinkyoucandistinguishbetweenresearchanddeployment.

Ithinkyouneedtoconsider,ifyou'regoingtoprioritizethisdirectionforresearch,youneedtolookattheendpoint.Ifyoucannotseeanendpointthatisanythingotherthandystopian,whywouldyoucontinuedownthattrajectory?

SoIdon'tknowifthereareconditionsunderwhichIwouldchangemymind.Igenuinelydon't.ButI'mverywillingtohaveanyonewhowouldliketoattempttochangemymind.Ithinkthatwouldbeanice,productivethingtohappeninthisspace.

Intermsofyourotherquestionaboutmysuggestionaboutamorehumbleroleforresearch,andparticularlytherolethatsocialscientistsmightplay,well,Ithink,look,thebiggerquestionis,whatdowebroadlythinkthatsocialscienceknowledge,andotherkindsofknowledge,does?

Imean,there'salotoftalkaboutusingsocialscienceknowledge,forexample,toconstructagovernancearrangement,andthisassumptionthatgovernanceissomethingthatonecanconstruct,andthatknowledgeisusedinthesewaystoactivelyconstructsomething,ratherthanbeingmoreofanemergentprocessbywhichpowerisdistributedanddecisionsmadewithinsociety,inwhichdifferentkindsofknowledgesvieforsomekindofdominancewithinthatsystem.I'mnotsayingthatsocialscienceisirrelevant.Mycontention,though,isthatthereisatendencytowardsseeingsocialsciencesinanextremelyinstrumentalway.

Sowhenyoulookattherangeofperspectives,saying,well,howdowechangethoseperspectives,underwhichconditionsmightmakepeopleletgooftheirfundamentalobjections,andhowcanwetweakthesituationinourfavor?AndIfindthatview,thatverynarrow,instrumentalview,ofsocialscientificknowledgetobeextremelylimiting.AndIthinkthatweneedtohaveabroaderunderstandingofsocialsciences—sociopoliticalsciences,humanities—oflookingtosocietyforthatcollectivewisdom,andactuallylisteningtowhatpeoplearesayingaboutthis,ratherthantryingtochangetheirminds.It'sjustadifferentwayofunderstandingwho'sknowledgeisrelevantinthisspace.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Thankyouverymuch.

Now,whileI'dlovetocontinueadiscussionjustamongmyselfandthefourpanelists—Ithinkthatwouldbereallyfun—wehavealotofexpertknowledgeofpeopleintheroom.Letmeturnitoverandinvitecommentsfromthefloor.Letmejustask,wehaveroughly20moreminutestothissession,somayIaskthatboththequestionsandanyresponsesfromthepanelbebriefandcogent.AndIwillcollectafewcommentsatatime,andthen,asseemsappropriate,distributethemamongthepanel.

TEDHALSTEAD:Goodmorning.TedHalstead,ClimateLeadershipCouncil.Thankyouforaveryrichfirstpanel.

IwanttopickuponScott'spointofthecollectionactionproblembeingattheheartofwherewearetoday,otherwiseknownasafreeriderproblem.AndIjustwanttosuggestthat,asidefromgeoengineering,thereisanotherpathforreachingclimatesolutions.IfwethinkverysimplyofKyotoasanefforttogeteverybodyonthesamepage,andParisasanefforttogeteverybodytothesametablewiththeirownpieceofpaper,thereisanalternative.Andthatisfocusingonbordercarbonadjustments,whichcouldcreateafirst-moveradvantagetoactunilaterallyandcompelothercountriestofollowsuit.Mygroupiscomingoutwithapaperonthatwithinthenextmonth.

Bringingthistogeoengineering,though,Ithinkthatthebiggestpriorityforthefieldshouldbetofocusonthatcollectiveactionside,meaningthegovernancestructuresnecessarytomoveforwardonresearchandpotentialdeploymentsomeday.

Andthen,finally,sinceit'sfuntocommentoneverything,regardingRose'sfinalcommentsabouttheworldweliveinandtheworldwewanttolivein,Imean,look,weliveinaworldwherewe'reheadingtowardsfourdegreesofwarming.Andifwedidnothavetobehereatthissessiontalkingaboutthese—Imean,Ifindit—it'swithgreatreluctancethatalotofusarehere.

Butgiventhatwe'reheadedtowardsfourdegrees,wehavenochoicethantoputgeoengineeringonthetable,andtoatleastthinkthroughthegovernancestructures,sothat,ifwegettothepointwhereweneedit,we'rereadyforit.

Thankyou.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Thankyou.MayIcollectmaybetwoorthreemorecommentsbeforeIpassthemontothepanels?

JESSICAMATHEWS:JessicaMathews,fromtheCarnegieEndowment.Iwasreallypuzzledbythelistofthethreekeyquestions,becauseyouleftoutgovernance.Thereisarichbodyofexperienceforsocialsciencetomine,toaskthequestionwhetherthereisanythinginthehumanexperiencethatsuggeststhatsuchagovernancestructurecouldbecreated.TheexamplethatScottBarrettcitedofnucleartestingisweirdasamoderateexample,because,althoughit'sonlydefacto,andnotdejure,theregimeisaban.

Butthequestionsofhowyoucreateagovernancestructureforatechnologythatyoudon'tknowwhatitis,orwhatitwilldo,seems,tome,tobethecoreofwhatsocialsciencecouldoffer.AndsoI'maskingthequestion,whywasn'tthatthefirstofthekeyquestions?

SYLVIARIBEIRO:Thankyou.Hello,mynameisSylviaRibeiro.IamwiththeETCGroup.AndIhaveaverysimilarquestiontothat.It'sthatIthinkthat,inthesamesensethatRosewassuggesting,Ithinkthediscussionisalreadybiasedinthequestions,inthesensethat,forinstance,isitpossibletohavegeoengineeringinonecountry?Becausegeoengineering,bydefinition,istoaffectglobalclimate.SoIthinktherearefundamentalsocialconcernsandquestionswehavetotackletobeabletoseeifwe,atall,wanttohaveanyprogramongeoengineering.AndIthinkthatshouldbeapriorquestiontotheothers.

PETERFIEKOWSKY:PeterFiekowsky,withtheHealthyClimateProject.Andgeoengineeringsoundslikesortofanengineeringproject.Andmyquestionis,ifitweresuccessful,whatwouldthegoalbe?

Normally,whenwedoaproject,wesetagoal—specificgoal.Forme,fortheclimate,Iwanttogiveahealthyclimatetoourchildren.Ifwe'resuccessfulingeoengineering,whatwouldtheoutcomebe?

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:OK,let'sgetonemoreonqueue.

KELLYWANSER:Thanksforthequestion,Peter.ItwasalittlebitrelatedtotheperspectiveIwantedtoprovidelookingattheEarthsystemasacomplexsystem.Itundergoeschangesinnonlinearways,andwe'reincreasingtherisksofthetrajectorythatwe'reon.AndsoIlikedScott'scommentaboutriskmanagement,andlookingatthingsinthecontextofrelativerisk.

Andthequestionis,ifouroptionsarethestatusquo,moreinvestmentinmitigation,adaptation,orsomethingwecallgeoengineering,whatinformationdowehavetoevaluatetherelativeriskagainstthegoalthatwe'retryingtoachieve,andifahealthyclimateforourchildrenisthegoalthatwe'retryingtoachieve?Andwemighttranslatethatintoastableequilibriumsystem—somewaythatwedefinewherethesystemisnotundergoingsuchpermanentstateshiftsthattheenvironment,asweknowit,isfundamentallydifferent.

AndsoIthink,goingbacktoRose'spointsaboutthecaseforresearchtoday,is,ifwelookatitasariskmanagementproblem,whatisthelevelofinformationthatwehaveabouttheportfolioofoptionsthatwehavetoaddressit,inanenvironmentwherethepoliticalandsocialsystemisnotnecessarilycontrolled?Andsointhatcontext,I'marguingthecaseabitlikeamedicalsituation,wherewehaveanearthsystemandwehave19thcenturymedicine.Andsowe'reoperatinginadecisionenvironment,wherewehaveimperfectinformation.Thisoneformoftreatmentisexperimental,andweknowverylittleaboutit.

AndsoIwould,Iguess,toRose'spoint,saythatthereisacaseforinformationinthecontextofrelativeriskreduction,andifwe'reabletopursuepoliciesinarationalway,inariskmanagedway,thenwewouldbeabletomakedecisionsthatdon'tautomaticallyleadtodeployment,iftheriskofdeploymentoutweightherisksofothercoursesofaction.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Ithinkthat'sarichenoughcollectiontoturnbacktothepanel.Solet'ssee,wehaveTed—considerthecontextheadedtofourdegreeheating,havenochoice.I'mgoingtogivethatonetoRose,becauseitismostdirectlyakindofaninquirytowardherargument.

Jessica—actually,I'mgoingtotakethatoneandsortoftakeitoffthetable,because,inasense,yourquestionis,whydoyousayitthisway?Theanswer,asoneofthedraftersofthebackgroundpapers,isallthreeofthosebigquestionswereintendedtobegovernancequestions,inthesensethateachofthemwasachallengetoagovernanceresponse.Sothequestion,howcouldyougovernthistechnologyisaquestion,howcoulditbegovernedinawaythatwouldaddresstheseasprioritiesamongtheothercollectionofchallenges?Sowearenotunmindfulofgovernanceastheprimarychallenge.It'ssobig,it'sbeyondthequestions.Butifyouwantedtoproposeotherchallengesthatshouldbeequallycentraltoconsideringgovernance,wecouldtalkaboutthat.

Sylvia—shouldtherebeaprogramatall,givenkindoftheexistingpoliticalconditionsand,inparticular,critically,shouldtherebeoneinonecountry?

Peter—what'sthegoal,what'stheoutcome?

Kelly—iftherewerearationalbasisforconsideringriskmanagement,wouldn'titbeobviousthatweshouldpursueresearchintothis,towhichthere'ssortoftheunstated,othersidequestion,well,ifwedon'thaveastrongpoliticalsocialbasisforrationalriskmanagement,inthatcase,howdowethinkaboutit?Orthat'sthewayI'mgoingtotakethat.

Solet'sgoinorderfortheothers.Rose,TedHalsteadsayswe'reheadedforfourdegreesheating.Youdidn'tsayanythingabouttheseverityofclimatechangerisksindependentofsolargeoengineering.Sohowdoyouconsiderthatinyourargumentationthatthebasisforeverdoingit,andthusforresearchingit,isinvalid,and,doingso,likelytoleadtoariskofdystopicfutures,giventhestateofpoliticalandsocialconditions?

ROSECAIRNS:Hi.Yes,no,Imean,Iagree.We'renotinagreatsituation.I'mnotdenyingthatafourdegreefuturedoesn'tlooklikeagreatfutureeither.

ButIwouldliketojustcomebackandsaythatthisparticularframingthatwehavenochoicebuttoputgeoengineeringonthetableisquiteadangerousframing.AndIthinkitslightlybeliestheargumentthathascomeoutbeforethat,ifaresearchrevealsthatthisisdifficultordangerousorrisky,thatwe'lljustbeableto,then,say,well,itdoesn'twork,then.

Itseemstome,ifyou'resaying,wehavenochoiceasaframing,that,again,thisleadstothatdynamicof,then,well,we'lljusthavetofigureoutaway.Whateverkindsofobstaclesorrisksorproblemsgetrevealedbytheresearch,we'lljustframethemaschallenges—engineeringproblems,ifyoulike—tobeovercome,ratherthanreasonstostopgoingdownthispath.SoIthinkthatthatframingreallyneedsquestioning.

Andagain,thewe,theproblematicwe,thatisoftenused,thatweneedgeoengineering.Itwillhavetobethereifweneedit,ifwewanttouseitultimately.Andwhoisthiswe?Again,it'sthisimaginaryideaofaninternationalcommunityactinginkindofbeautifulharmonytosuddenlysetatemperaturetarget,andgoaheadwithgeoengineering.AndIdon'tthinkthatthatisrealistic.AndIthinkputtinggeoengineeringonthetable,aswassuggested,isactuallyverydangerous,andwillcauseallkindsofunforeseenconsequences.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Thankyou.OK,theotherquestions,I'mgoingtoofferpanelists'choicewhotakesthemon.SowehaveKellyonkindofthepremiseofthesocialpoliticalconditionsjustifyingaresearchprogramornot.Panel,doesthatsuggestresearchablequestionsaboutthosesocialandpoliticalconditions,andarethose,insomesense,prioreventoadecisiontopursueresearch,letaloneanyfuturehypotheticaldeployment?

SCOTTBARRETT:Well,inmycase,I'mmoreinterestedinaddressinganotherpoint.SoIdowanttouseupmytime.

[LAUGHTER]

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:OK,actually,thepanelisallowedtopunt.That'soneofthebenefitsofgatheringmultiplequestions.OK,what'sthegoal,what'stheoutcome?

HOLLYBUCK:Icandothat.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Please,Holly.

HOLLYBUCK:Yes.Well,Imean,obviously,that'snotformepersonallytoanswer.It'sforthepeople,howeveryouconstructthem.Andoneinterestingthingwascitizensreallydowanttotalkaboutthismorebroadly.

Sowehadaproject,theideaisthatyou'dwanttoincorporatepublicengagementearlyintotheresearchprocess,becauseitcouldmaketheresearchbetter.Youcouldfocusonwhatpeoplewanttoknowabout,andwhattheirquestionsare.Sowetriedtogatherupwhatpeople'squestions,ideas,andconcernswereaboutsolargeoengineering,inordertodosomescienceinresponsetothat.Andpeoplewereinterestedinthat,buttheywantedtotalkaboutalltheseotherthings—youknow,consumerism,waystocutcarbon,justthewholerangeofthingsyoumightimagine.

Andwereallyneedtobeasocialscientist,thinkingofspacestohavekindofthosebroaderconversations.Andthenthere'sthetensionwithalsohopefullymakingitusabletoscientificresearch.

Iwouldsayonethingthat,intermsofsocietalgoals,theoneprocessthathasbeendonecollectivelywouldbetheSustainableDevelopmentGoals.Anditwouldbeinterestingtoanalyzehowtheycouldbefurtheredbygeoengineering,andhowtousethat.That'sonelenstogetatthatquestion.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Interesting.Anybodywanttotakeon,shouldtherebearesearch—actually,Scott,whatwasthequestionyouwantedtotakeon?

SCOTTBARRETT:Well,actuallyI'minterestedinallofthem.ButTedaskedthefirstonethatIhaveaparticularinterestin.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Goahead.

SCOTTBARRETT:ButIaminterestedinallofthem.

SoTed'sbasicpoint,ifI'minterpretingitcorrectly,was,well,youknow,we'relookingatgeoengineeringbecauseofthedifficultiesofaddressingthefundamentalproblem,whichisnottoputthingsintheatmospherethataren'talreadythere.That'sthekeypoint.Andwehavehadthiswhole—yearsofattemptstodothis.

Kyoto,youmentioned.Paris.I'vedoneresearchonallofthese.Therearedeepweaknessestoallofthem.Andsothen,thereisthequestion,well,whowoulddobetter?Thatwasyourpoint.Andthis,Ithink,shouldbeamajorresearchpriority.Ispendalmostallmytimedoingthis.

Now,yourideawasabout—youcalleditbordercarbonadjustment.Soyouhavethebasicfreeriderproblem,butontopofthat,you'redoingallthisinthisworldofglobalization.Sowhenyougotointervene,you'regoingtobechangingmarketprices,whichisgoingtocause—sooneideaisyouwanttoimposebordertaxadjustmentstocorrectforthat.

Thatwillnot,however,correctatallforfree-riding.Thatstandardbordertaxadjustment,intendedtoaddressthetradeleakageissuewouldnotdothat.Also,itwouldnotaddresstheleakageinthefossilfuelmarket,whichwouldbeamajorissue.Ultimately,whatI'mquitesureyoucareabout,isactually

reducingglobalemissions.Andthatmeans,couldyouusesomethinglikeatarifftoenforceanagreementtolimitemissions?

Sotheworlddoesagree.Andthereisagoal—twodegreesC.Funnyenough,peoplesayweshouldavoid2degreesC,butthosesamepeopledon'tsayweshoulddoitthroughmeanslikethis.Now,WilliamNordhausofYaleUniversity,averydistinguishedeconomistwho'sbeenworkingonclimatechangesincethelate1970s,hasaprovocativepapercalledClimateClubs,inwhichhe'slookingintothequestionaboutwhetherasubgroupofcountrieswouldadopt,inhislanguage,acarbontax,andthenimposegeneralizedtariffsagainstnonmemberstoseeifthatwouldcreateincentivesforthenonmemberstojointheclub.

Idothinkthat,intermsofaddressingfree-riding,tradehastobebroughtin.It'sinconceivablehowwecouldaddressitwithoutthat,exceptforthemiracletechnologyarriving.Now,I'mdoingsomeresearchonthismyself.Now,forBill'swork,whathebasicallyshowsisthat,ifthecarbontaxisintheneighborhoodof$50perton,thesystemwon'twork.Soitonlywouldworkifyouhadaverysmallcarbontax.

SoIdon'tthinkthisisanykindofsolution.Imean,DavidKeithandDanSchragandotherswilltellyoutostabilizetheclimatebylimitingconcentrations,youhavetobringemissionstozero.Weshouldallbefilledincompleteaweofwhatthisactuallyimplies.Now,he's—

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:Andyou'reonmitigation,andalthoughit'stheimportantenvelopearoundallofthis—

SCOTTBARRETT:Yes,butit'sveryimportant.It'sveryimportantbecause,firstofall,weshouldpursueeveryeffortwecanonthis.Andalso,thecaseforgeoengineering,andthisgoesalittlebittowhatRoseissaying—Idon'tagreewithwhatshe'ssaying,butitgoesalittlebittowhatshe'ssaying—ifwedon'tpursueeverypossibleavenuetoaddressthefundamentalproblemofconcentrationsintheatmosphere,thenthere'salwaysgoingtobethisconcernaboutgeoengineeringassomekindofquickfixorsomething.

ButthelastpartIwanttomakeisthathe's,inyouranalyst'smodel,he'sassumingthatthere'snoretaliation.Well,Icantellyou,youremovethatand,allofasudden,theinstancesinwhichthatapproachwouldworkstarttoreallyshrink.AndthentherearesomeotherthingsIcantellyou.Ithinkthisisthewayweshouldbethinkingaboutit.

Butreally,I'vespentover25yearsworkingonthis,atleastIcannotseeanykindofglobalregimeonclimatechangethatcanaddresstheproblematthisfundamentallevel.Andfrankly,that'stheonlyreasonI'msittinguphererightnow.

EDWARDA.(TED)PARSON:OK.We'regoingtomaintainalargerscaletimediscipline,andtherewillnotbeanotherroundofquestionsandcomments.Soeverytopicaddressedherewillberevisitedrepeatedlyoverthecourseoftheday.Soholdyourquestionsandcomments.

Pleasejoinmeinthankingourpanelists,thethreehereinthefleshandtheoneremotely.

[APPLAUSE]

Thankyouall.Thanksforyourexcellentquestions.Thankyou.