Social media and the travel

industry in 2030

e-Travel World

ITB, Berlin, March 2013

Albert Postma, professor of scenario planning

Suppose you fall into a deep sleep

and you awake in 2030…..

We simply do not know …

Checking social networking sites is more tempting than sex and cigarettes

Respondents from 18 to 85 accessed by smartphone

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2214772/Checking-Facebook-Twitter-tempting-sex-cigarettes-says-study.html

https://www.dropbox.com/s/rmh671xxtqly5qb/Belfast%20Media%20Festival%20Gerd%20Leonhard%20Public-web.pdf

Key trends in Social Media

(Vanessa Mieris, 2009)

Events / Phenomena

Patterns (Trends)

Structures (Drivers)

Drivers of tourism (I.Yeoman, 2008, 2012)

What drives the tourist in 2030 What drives tourism in 2030

Prosperity and affordability

Accessibility

Events

Cultural capital

Globalization and competition

Climate

• Wealth: in major generating markets

(shift of world economic order)

• Technology: change of technology,

change of consumers’ use of

information, change of tourism

distribution channels

• Resources:

o Food (food prices, hunger)

o Water (falling water tables)

o Environment (soil erosion,

temperature rise)

o Oil (peak oil)

Drivers of social media (J.Slevin, 2000)

Risk society:

• Globalisation

• De-traditionalisation

• Reflexivity

• Intensification

Uncertainties (expert interviews)

Tourism Social Media

Unstable European market

Emerging markets

Longevity of resources

Oil prices

Technological influence on

tourism industry

Border and visa regulations

Consumer behaviour

Privacy issues

Security issues

Information overkill – paradox of choice

Personal vs unpersonal service/

communication?

Reliability of info: Friends vs Professionals

Collective creativity / intelligence?

Regression? (mobbing, transparency,

addiction, crime) – cycle30

Information axis

Tra

vel axiis

Collective

information

devaluated

Collective

information

highly valued

Travel is experience

(emotion)

Centre of

expertise

Web

portal

Wiki

platform

Web

shop

Travel is efficient

(economic)

New responsibilities of travel industry

Empower the customer

Mediator in stead of authority

Develop new forms of dialogue

Develop strategic alliances

Take a cosmopolitan attitude

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Thanks for your attention

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