MetroPOLL Research Centre 1

SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SITUATION IN TURKEY

‘‘DAVOS CRİSİS”

-JANUARY 2009-

RESEARCH TEAMRESEARCH TEAM

Prof. Dr. Özer SENCAR & Prof. Dr. Özer SENCAR & DrDr. Sıtkı YILDIZ. Sıtkı YILDIZ

MetroPOLL Strategic ve Social Research Centre Cinnah Street 67/ 18 Çankaya- ANKARA

Phone: 0 312 441 46 00 Fax: 0 312 441 74 90e-mail: info@metropoll.com.tr

www.metropoll.com.tr

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GOALS

The goal of the survey is to find out how the heated debate at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos over Israel's offensive in the Gaza is perceived by the Turkish public.

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METHOD

The poll was conducted at Jan. 30 by telephone among a random national sampling of 1002 adults residing in cities, towns and villages.

The margin of error for the overall poll is 3 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence level.

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SAMPLE

  Number %

Adana 35 3,5

Ağrı 13 1,3

Ankara 78 7,8

Antalya 35 3,5

Aydın 22 2,2

Balıkesir 22 2,2

Bursa 45 4,5

Denizli 22 2,2

Diyarbakır 13 1,3

Erzurum 16 1,6

Gaziantep 28 2,8

Hatay 40 4,0

Mersin 21 2,1

İstanbul 173 17,3

İzmir 62 6,2

  Number %

Kastamonu 17 1,7

Kayseri 34 3,4

Kocaeli 49 4,9

Konya 31 3,1

Malatya 25 2,5

Manisa 38 3,8

Mardin 20 2,0

Ordu 24 2,4

Samsun 31 3,1

Tekirdağ 23 2,3

Trabzon 20 2,0

Şanlıurfa 13 1,3

Van 14 1,4

Zonguldak 15 1,5

Kırıkkale 23 2,3

TOTAL 1002 100

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SAMPLE

Distribution of participants by area of residence

  Number %City-Village

(%)

City Centre 623 62,278,7

Town 165 16,5

Village 214 21,4 21,4

TOTAL 1002 100 100

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Did you approve or disapprove of the remarks of Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdoğan and the policies pursued

by the Turkish government during Israel’s Gaza offensive?

OPINIONS ABOUT DAVOS

No answer/ No idea; 8,1

I disapproved;

10,2

I approved; 81,7

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How do you perceive PM Erdoğan’s walkout during the WEF session in Davos?

OPINIONS ABOUT DAVOS

I feel positive about it;

78,3

I feel negative about it;

13,7

No idea/ I don’t know;

5,6

I don't know what

happened; 2,4

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Was PM Erdoğan’s angrily leaving a debate at the WEF in favor of or against Turkey?

OPINIONS ABOUT DAVOS

I t was in favor of Turkey; 55,7

It was against Turkey; 21,0

Neither; 4,5

I don't know what happened;

1,1

No idea/I don’t know;

17,8

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Did Erdoğan’s move and discourse against the Israeli assaults in Gaza increase the current wave of hostility

against Jews?

OPINIONS ABOUT DAVOS

Yes, it did; 37,7

No, it didn’t; 44,4

No answer/ idea;

16,9

I don't know what

happened; 1,0

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How will PM Erdoğan’s walkout during the WEF session after exchanging harsh remarks with Israeli President

Shimon Peres influence ties between Turkey and Israel?

OPINIONS ABOUT DAVOS

I t will have positive impacts;

37,6

I t will have negative impacts;

41,6

No answer/ idea;

10,2

I don't know what

happened; 0,6

Won't have any impact;

10,0

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All things considered, do you approve of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s overall job performances?

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN’S IMAGE

Approve; 74,0

Disapprove; 22,2

Don’t know; 3,9

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All things considered, do you approve of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s overall job performances?

(Between December 2007 and January 2009)

December 2007

June2008

24-26January

2009

30January 2009

% % % %

Approve73,7 57,1 55,0 74,0

Disapprove24,7 40,4 40,0 22,2

No idea1,6 2,5 5,0 3,9

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN’S IMAGE

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What do you think about the overall discourse of

PM Erdoğan?

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN’S IMAGE

I appreciate it; 73,4

I dislike it; 21,4

No answer/ idea

; 5,3

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  Approve DisapproveDon’t know /

No idea

Honesty and trustworthiness 75,0 19,1 5,9

Democratic and pro-freedom 81,8 14,8 5,7

A strong and

decisive leader 70 24,4 3,4

Mark the box that you agree with on assessing Erdoğan

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN’S IMAGE

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Mark the box that you agree with on assessing Erdoğan

(December 2007 – January 2009 Comparison %)

Approve Disapprove

December 2007

24-26 January

2009

30 January

2009December

2007

24-26 January

2009

30 January

2009

Honesty and trustworthiness

73,8 59,6 75,0 21,8 35,8 19,1

A strong and decisive leader 81,8 71,8 81,8 15,9 25,7 14,8

Democratic and pro-freedom 67,31 57,3 70 26,2 38,6 24,4

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN’S IMAGE

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All things considered, how would you rate the overall performance of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

between 1 and 10?

 Average Score

Recep Tayip Erdoğan 7,5

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN’S IMAGE

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All things considered, how would you rate the overall performance of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

between 1 and 10?

(December 2007 – June 2008 - January 2009 Comparison %)

AverageDecember

2007

Average June 2008

Average24-26

January 2009

Average30

January 2009

R.Tayyip Erdoğan 7,6 6,3 6,8 7,5

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN’S IMAGE

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If If parliamentary parliamentary elections elections werewere held today, which party held today, which party

would you vote for?would you vote for?

POLITICAL SITUATION

AKP; 49,3

No answer /No idea; 10,3

I will not go to the ballot box;

1,6

I will cast invalid vote; 2,7

Undecided; 15,4

CHP; 11,5MHP; 5,3

Other ; 2,9

SP; 1,1

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If If parliamentary parliamentary elections elections werewere held today, held today,

which party would you vote for?which party would you vote for?(Between April 2008 - January 2009 Comparison %)

April 2008

May2008

June 2008

August 2008

Sept.2008

Octo.2008

Novem.2008

24-26January

2009

30 January

2009

AKP 50,2 44,6 40,4 41,9 50,9 35,0 32,6 38,9 49,3

CHP 12,4 12,0 14,4 13,9 9,5 15,5 12,5 15,9 11,5

MHP 7,2 6,6 7,6 8,4 6,6 8,6 7,6 9,0 5,3

DTP 0,6 0,3 1,0 1,8 2,6 3,4 3,0 2,0 0,4

SP 1,2 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,6 1,0 1,1 1,4 1,1

DP 1,4 1,8 1,1 1,3 1,0 1,5 - - 0,9

Other 3,3 3,3 4,2 3,2 2,4 3,8 3,0 4,2 1,5

Undecided 10,4 11,8 13,6 12,5 11,3 13,9 19,5 15,9 15,4

I will vote an invalid ballot 2,4 5,3 8,9 7,2 7,0 7,0 9,0 5,0 2,7

I won’t go to the ballot box 1,7 3,9 2,5 3,8 2,0 2,1 2,0 1,6 1,6

No answer/no idea 9,2 8,2 5,7 5,4 5,3 8,2 9,6 6,1 10,3

POLITICAL SITUATION

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      Number %

GenderGender

FemaleFemale 491 49,0

MaleMale 511 51,0

AgeAge

18-2418-24 171 17,1

25-3425-34 250 25,0

35-4435-44 215 21,5

45-5445-54 214 21,4

55+55+ 152 15,2

Education

IlliterateIlliterate 31 3,1

Only literateOnly literate 29 2,9

Graduated from primary schoolGraduated from primary school 339 33,9

Graduated from secondary Graduated from secondary schoolschool 119 11,9

Graduated from juniorGraduated from junior high high schoolschool 300 30,0

Graduated from universityGraduated from university 184 18,4

     TOTALTOTAL 1002 100

DEMOGRAPHIC PROPERTIES OF THE SAMPLE