Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir

Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir

Based on a Nationally Representative Sample of Men and Women of n 500 in

AJK

Field Work Conducted during 10th July to 15th July 2021

Error Margin: +-2 to 3% at 95% Confidence Level

July 19, 2021


Table of Contents

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PART 1: FINDINGS

Topic 1: Problem of the area

Item 1.1: In your opinion, what is the biggest problem faced by your city/

village/ area?

Topic 2: Perception about the services of area

Item 2.1: How much satisfied you are regarding government health

services like hospitals and dispensaries etc of your area?

Item 2.2: How much satisfied you are regarding the government

schools/colleges etc of your area?

Item 2.3: How much satisfied you are regarding the peace and security

situation of your area?

Item 2.4: How much satisfied you are regarding the streets/roads of your

area?

Item 2.5: How much satisfied you are regarding the transport services of

your area?

Item 2.6: How much satisfied you are regarding the electricity supply of

your area?

Item 2.7: How much satisfied you are regarding the gas supply of your

area?


Table of Contents

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Topic 3: Perception about Political Leaders

Item 3.1: How is your overall opinion about Imran Khan? Is it very good,

good, bad or very bad?

Item 3.2: How is your overall opinion about Nawaz Sharif? Is it very good,


Item 3.3: How is your overall opinion about Shahbaz Sharif? Is it very good,


Item 3.4: How is your overall opinion about Maryam Nawaz? Is it very good,


Item 3.5: How is your overall opinion about Bilawal Bhutto Zardari? Is it very

good, good, bad or very bad?

Topic 4: Perception about performance of President & PM

Item 4.1: Please tell, how satisfied are you with the performance of Azad

Kashmir’s president ‘Sardar Masood Khan’?

Item 4.2: Please tell, how satisfied are you with the performance of Azad

Kashmir’s current prime minister Raja Muhammad Farooq Haider

Khan?

Topic 5: Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior

Item 5.1: Which party do you think will win in the general elections that are

to be held on 25th July 2021?

Item 5.2: Many people are of the opinion that on 25th July, the elections in

Azad Kashmir will be fair and free while some think that the

elections will not be free and fair. What is your opinion on this?


Table of Contents

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Topic 6: Pereception about general topics

Item 6.1: Please tell whether anyone from your household (this only includes

your siblings, children and parents) lives abroad?

Item 6.2: How would you consider your household’s economic situation?

Item 6.3: Do you or someone in your household own agricultural land?

Item 6.4: What was the main reason to cultivate land?

Item 6.5: What is the main source of your household income?

PART 2: DEMOGRAPHICS Disclaimer: Gallup Pakistan has conducted this poll according to the ESOMAR Code of Ethics and internationally

recognized principles of scientific polling. The results in this Report do not represent views held by the authors or

Gallup Pakistan. The results only represent public opinion, computed on the basis of views expressed by anonymous

respondents selected through the procedure outlined in the Methodology section of this Report.


Executive Summary

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Executive Summary

Section 1: Problems in the area

Broken and poorly maintained roads cited as the biggest problem by 24%

respondents in AJK. 13% say lack of clean drinking water while 10% say

electricity load shedding. 8% say inflation.

Section 2: Perception about services in the area

58% respondents expressed dissatisfaction over government health services

in the area.

53% are satisfied with government school/colleges in the area.

86% respondents in AJK are satisfied with the peace and security situation in

their area.

59% have expressed dissatisfaction with the situation of roads and streets in

their area.

55% are satisfied with the transport services in their area.

44% in AJK expressed satisfaction with the electricity supply in their area

while 52% expressed dissatisfaction in this regard.

71% in AJK say that gas supply is not available in their area. 18%

respondents are dissatisfied with the gas supply in their area while 10% are

satisfied.

Section 3: Perception about political leaders: Approval rating

highest for Imran Khan

68% respondents in AJK have a positive opinion of Imran Khan.

47% have a positive opinion of Nawaz Sharif.

48% have a positive opinion of Shahbaz Sharif.


Executive Summary

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45% have a positive opinion of Maryam Nawaz.

49% have a positive opinion of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.

Section 4: Perception on performance of President and PM

60% respondents in AJK are satisfied with the performance of Azad

Kashmir’s current Prime Minister, Raja Muhammad Farooq Haider Khan.

44% respondents in AJK are satisfied with the performance of Azad

Kashmir’s president, Sardar Masood Khan.

Section 5: Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior

Intention to vote: (High intention to vote in the upcoming elections)

94% respondents are likely to vote in the upcoming election while 6%

have no intention to vote.

Expected winners:

44% in AJK think that PTI will win the election on 25th July 2021. 12% say

PML-N while 9% say PPP.

Expected fairness of the elections to be held on 25th July:

53% respondents in AJK believe that the elections will be free and fair. 30%

think that they will not be free and fair while 17% are unsure.

Section 6: Perception about general topics

39% people from AJK say that someone from their immediate family lives

abroad.

33% said that someone from their immediate family lives outside Kashmir but

within Pakistan.

44% in AJK claim that they or someone in their household owns agricultural

land.

Fulfilling family’s dietary needs (59%) is the main reason why people in AJK

cultivate land. 32% cited cultural factors/societal pressures while 7% say that

they cultivate land to sell the produce in the market.


Executive Summary

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56% respondents cite employment/business in AJK as their main source of

income. 26% cite employment/business in Pakistan as their mains source of

income 14% cite employment/business in EU/North America while 4% cite

employment/business in the Gulf/Middle East as their main source of income.



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TOPIC 1

Problem of the area

This Topic has 1 item. Key Findings and Statistical Analysis for each

of them are provided ahead in this section.



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Item 1.1: Key Finding

Question: In your opinion, what is the biggest problem faced by your city/

village/ area?

Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021

.Qشہر / گاؤں/ علاقے کا سب سے بڑا مسئلہ کیا ہے ؟ خیال میں آپ کے پ کے آ

_____________________:سب سے بڑا مسئلہ

24%

13%

10%9%

8%6%

4%3% 3% 3% 3%

1% <1%

11%

3%

<1%

Bro

ken

an

d p

oo

rly

mai

nta

ine

d r

oad

s

Lack

of

cle

an d

rin

kin

g w

ater

Ele

ctri

city

load

-sh

edd

ing

Un

em

plo

ymen

t

Infl

atio

n

Edu

cati

on

issu

es

Mo

bile

Se

rvic

e +

Ne

two

rk

Po

vert

y

Co

rru

pti

on

Gas

loa

d-s

he

dd

ing

He

alth

fac

iliti

es

Po

or

syst

em o

fcl

ean

line

ss/g

arb

age

etc

.

The

fts/

rob

ber

ies

etc

.

No

pro

ble

m

Oth

er

DK

/NR



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TOPIC 2: Perception about the services of area

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TOPIC 2

Perception about the services of area

This Topic has 7 items. Key Findings and Statistical Analysis for each




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Question: How much satisfied you are regarding government health services

like hospitals and dispensaries etc of your area?


Rating

(Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)

NET RATING = -21%

.Q ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ وغیرہ کی اور ڈسپنسری ہسپتال ی عن ی ات ی سہول سرکاری طبی موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ

مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت غ

1 مطمئن ادہ ی بہت ز

2 مطمئن تھوڑے بہت

3 مطمئن ر ی تھوڑے بہت غ

4 مطمئن ریغ ادہ یبہت ز

5 ں یسہولت موجود نہ ہی


5%

33%

14%

44%

4%

Very satisfied Somewhatsatisfied

Somewhatdissatisfied

Very dissatisfied This facility is notavailable in our

area

37%

58%

Satisfied Dissatisfied



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Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the government

schools/colleges etc of your area?


Rating


NET RATING = 13%

.Q ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک رہ ی اسکول/کالج وغ ی سرکار موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ بہت ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن مطمئن، تھوڑے مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت غ


2 تھوڑے بہت مطمئن


4 مطمئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز

5 ں ی سہولت موجود نہ ہ ی

9%

44%

14%

27%

5%1%



Verydissatisfied

This facility isnot available in

our area

DK/NR

53%

40%




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Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the peace and security

situation of your area?


Rating (Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)

NET RATING = 73%

.Q مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت مطمئن، ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک صورتحال ی امن وامان ک موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی تھوڑے بہت غ






42% 44%

5%8%

1% <1%



Verydissatisfied


our area

DK/NR

86%

13%




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Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the streets/roads of your

area?


Rating


NET RATING = -24%

.Q مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک ات ی سہول ی / سڑکوں ک وں ی گل موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت غ






7%

29%

20%

39%

5%

<1%



Verydissatisfied


our area

DK/NR

36%

60%




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Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the transport services of

your area?


Rating


NET RATING = 13%

.Q مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک ات ی ٹرانسپورٹ کا نظام / سہول موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت غ



3 مطمئن ر ی ے بہت غ تھوڑ




12%

43%

20%22%

3%<1%



Verydissatisfied


our area

DK/NR

55%

42%




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Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the electricity supply of

your area?


Rating (Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)

NET RATING = -7%

.Q مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت مطمئن، تھوڑے ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک ی سپلائ ی ک ی بجل موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ

مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی بہت غ






7%

37%

22%

30%

3%



Very dissatisfied This facility is notavailable in our

area

45%52%




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Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the gas supply of your

area?


Rating


NET RATING = -9%

.Q مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت مطمئن، تھوڑے ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک ی سپلائ ی ک س ی گ موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ

مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی بہت غ






2%8% 10% 9%

71%

1%



Verydissatisfied


our area

DK/NR

9%

18%




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Positive Rating


Negative Rating


86%

55% 53%45%

37% 36%

9%

Pea

ce a

nd

sec

uri

tysi

tuat

ion

Tran

spo

rt s

ervi

ces

Go

vern

men

tsc

ho

ols

/co

llege

s et

c.

Ele

ctri

city

su

pp

ly

Go

vern

men

tal h

ealt

hse

rvic

es li

ke h

osp

ital

s an

dd

isp

ensa

ries

etc

.

Stre

ets/

road

s

Gas

su

pp

ly60% 58%

52%

42% 40%

18%13%

Stre

ets/

road

s

Go

vern

men

tal h

ealt

hse

rvic

es li

ke h

osp

ital

s an

dd

isp

ensa

ries

etc

.

Ele

ctri

city

su

pp

ly

Tran

spo

rt s

ervi

ces

Go

vern

men

tsc

ho

ols

/co

llege

s et

c.

Gas

su

pp

ly

Pea

ce a

nd

sec

uri

tysi

tuat

ion



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TOPIC 3: Perception about Political Leaders

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TOPIC 3

Perception about Political Leaders





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Question: How is your overall opinion about Imran Khan? Is it very good,



Rating (Positive VS Negative)

NET RATING = 40%

.Q ؟ بہت خراب ا ی خراب ، ی اچھ ، ی بہت اچھ ی عن ی ہے؟ ی س ی رائے ک ں ی عمران خان کے بارے م ی طور پر اپ ک ی مجموع

1 بہت اچھی

2 اچھی

3 خراب

4 بہت خراب

8 معلوم نہیں

36%

32%

9%

18%

5%

Very good Good Bad Very bad DK/NR

67%

27%

Positive (Very Good + Good) Negative (Bad + Very Bad)



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Question: How is your overall opinion about Nawaz Sharif? Is it very good,



Rating

(Positive VS Negative)

NET RATING = 1%

.Q ؟ بہت خراب ا ی خراب ، ی اچھ ، ی بہت اچھ ی عن ی ہے؟ ی س ی رائے ک ں ی کے بارے م ف ی نواز شر ی طور پر اپ ک ی مجموع

1 بہت اچھی

2 اچھی

3 خراب

4 بہت خراب


20%

27%

24%22%

8%


46% 46%




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Question: How is your overall opinion about Shahbaz Sharif? Is it very good,



Rating

(Positive VS Negative)

NET RATING = 9%

Q. بہت خراب ؟ ا ی خراب ، ی اچھ ، ی بہت اچھ ی عن ی ہے؟ ی س ی رائے ک ں ی کے بارے م ف ی شہباز شر ی طور پر اپ ک ی مجموع

1 بہت اچھی

2 چھی ا

3 خراب

4 بہت خراب


10%

38%

22%18%

12%


48%

40%




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Question: How is your overall opinion about Maryam Nawaz? Is it very good,




NET RATING = 2%

.Q بہت خراب ؟ ا ی خراب ، ی اچھ ، ی بہت اچھ ی عن ی ہے؟ ی س ی رائے ک ں ی کے بارے م نواز م ی مر ی طور پر اپ ک ی مجموع

1 بہت اچھی

2 اچھی

3 خراب

4 بہت خراب


12%

33%

22% 21%

12%


45% 43%




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Question: How is your overall opinion about Bilawal Bhutto Zardari? Is it very

good, good, bad or very bad?



NET RATING = 11%

Q. ؟ بہت خراب ا ی خراب ، ی اچھ ، ی بہت اچھ ی عن ی ہے؟ ی س ی رائے ک ں ی بلاول بھٹو کے بارے م ی طور پر اپ ک ی مجموع

1 بہت اچھی

2 اچھی

3 خراب

4 بہت خراب


8%

41%

26%

12% 13%


49%38%




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Positive Rating

Negative Rating

67%

49% 48% 46% 45%

Imra

n K

han

Bila

wal

Bh

utt

o

Shah

baz

Sh

arif

Naw

az S

har

if

Mar

yam

Naw

az46%

43%40% 38%

27%

Naw

az S

har

if

Mar

yam

Naw

az

Shah

baz

Sh

arif

Bila

wal

Bh

utt

o

Imra

n K

han


TOPIC 4: Perception about performance of President & PM

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TOPIC 4

Perception about performance of President & PM




TOPIC 4: Perception about performance of President & PM

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Question: Please tell, how satisfied are you with the performance of Azad

Kashmir’s president ‘Sardar Masood Khan’?


Rating


NET RATING = -3%

. .Q ؟ ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک سردار مسعود خان زاد کشمیر صدر ا کہ آپ ں ی بتائ ی برائے مہربان


2 حد تک مطمئن ی کس

3 مطمئن ر ی حد تک غ ی کس

4 ممطئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز


6%

38%

15%

32%

8%



Very dissatisfied DK/NR

44% 47%




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Question: Please tell, how satisfied are you with the performance of Azad

Kashmir’s current prime minister Raja Muhammad Farooq Haider

Khan?


Rating


NET RATING = 25%

.Q ں؟ ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک خان در ی اعظم راجہ محمد فاروق ح ر ی وز کے موجودہ ر ی کہ آپ آزاد کشم ں ی بتائ ی برائے مہربان


2 حد تک مطمئن ی کس

3 مطمئن ر ی حد تک غ ی کس

4 ممطئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز

14%

46%

2%

33%

3%



Very dissatisfied DK/NR

61%

36%




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TOPIC 5

Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior





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Question: Which party do you think will win in the general elections that are to

be held on 25th July 2021?


.Q ؟ یتےگیج یپارٹ یکونس ںیکو ہونے والے عام انتخابات م 2021 یجولائ 25 ںیم الیآپ کے خ

کا نام : ۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔ یپارٹ

12%9%

44%

3% 1% <1% 1% 1% <1%

28%

PM

L-N

PP

P

PTI

MC

JKP

P

JIA

JK

Teh

reek

-e-L

abai

k

Ind

epen

de

nt

Can

did

ate

Oth

ers

DK

/NR



37 | P a g e


Question: Many people are of the opinion that on 25th July, the elections in

Azad Kashmir will be fair and free while some think that the

elections will not be free and fair. What is your opinion on this?


.Q کے صاف شفاف ہونگے، جبکہ یدھاندل ریہونے والے انتخابات بغ ںیم ریکو آزاد کشم 2021 یجولائ 25ہے کہ الیبعض لوگوں کا خ

ہے؟ ارائےیک ںی اس بارے م یہونگے۔ آپ ک ںیہے انتخابات شفاف نہ الیبعض لوگوں کا خ

1 انتخابات صاف شفاف ہونگے

2 ہونگے ںیانتخابات صاف شفاف نہ

53%

30%

17%

Elections will be freeand fair

Elections will not befree and fair

DK/NR


TOPIC 6: Pereception about general topics

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TOPIC 6

Pereception about general topics





39 | P a g e

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Question: Please tell whether anyone from your household (this only includes

your siblings, children and parents) lives abroad?


.Q رونی( ب ںیماں، باپ شامل ہ ، یٹی ٹا،بیب ، ی صرف بہن، بھائ ںیفرد )ان افراد م یآپ کے گھرا نے کا کوئ ایکہ ک ںیبتائ یبرائے مہربان

؟ ںیملک رہتے ہ

1 ہاں

2 نہیں

Yes 39%

No 61%



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Question: Please tell whether anyone from your household (this only includes

your siblings, children and parents) lives outside Kashmir but in

Pakistan?


.Q ری( کشمںیماں، باپ شامل ہ ،یٹی ٹا،بی ب ،یصرف بہن، بھائ ںیفرد )ان افراد م یآپ کے گھرا نے کا کوئ ایکہ ک ں یبتائ ی برائے مہربان

؟رہتے ہیں میں پاکستان کنیسے باہر ل 1 ہاں

2 نہیں

Yes 33% No 67%



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Question: How would you consider your household’s economic situation?


.Q گے؟ ںیکر انیب سےی صورتحال کو ک یمعاش یکہ آپ اپنے گھرانے ک ںیبتائ یبرائے مہربان

1 ریام

2 متوسط طبقہ یاپرمڈل کلاس / اعل

3 مڈل کلاس / متوسط طبقہ

4 ب یغر

5 ب یبہت غر

5% 6%

59%

19%

11%

<1%

Rich Upper- middle-class

Middle-class Poor Very poor DK/NR



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Question: Do you or someone in your household own agricultural land?


.Q کا مالک ہے؟ نیزم ی( زرعیٹیب ٹا، یب ،یماں، باپ، بہن، بھائ یعنی) فرد یآپ کے گھرانے کے کوئ ا یآپ ایک

1 ہاں

2 نہیں

Yes 44%

No 56%



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Question: What was the main reason to cultivate land?


.Q ؟ ہے ای وجہ ک یادی بن یکرنے ک یباڑ یتیکاشت کرنے /کھ نیکہ زم ںیبتائ یبرائے مہربان

1 مارکیٹ میں پیداوار کی فروخت کرنا

2 کو پورا کرنے کے لئے اتیضرور یک / کھانے پینے کی اشیاء خوراک انے کی اپنے گھر

سماجی کرنا پڑتا ہے، ہیکرتے تھے لہذا آپ کو زمین کاشت / کھیتی باڑی یکہ آپ کے دادا داد سےیعوامل ج یثقافت

رہ یعلامت سمجھا جاتا ہے، وغ /شگونرا کو ب نیبنجر زم ونکہیک کی وجہ سےدباؤ 3

7%

59%

32%

2%

To sell agricultureproduce in the market

To fulfil your family’s dietary needs

Cultural factors like yourgrandparents used to

cultivate the land so youhave to do it, due tosocietal pressures as

barren land is consideredto be a bad omen /

symbol, etc.

No Response



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Question: What is the main source of your household income?


.Q ہے؟ ایک عہیذر یادیکا بن یآمدن لویگھر یآپ ک 1 ملازمت / کاروبار ںیم ریآزاد کشم

2 ملازمت / کاروبار ںیپاکستان م

3 ملازمت / کاروبار ںیممالک م یوسط ی/ مشرق چیخل

56%

26%

4%

14%

Employment /business in Azad

Kashmir

Employment /business in Pakistan

Employment /business in the Gulf

/ Middle East

DK/NR


Demographics and Methodology

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PART 2: Demographics and Methodology Note



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Methodology of Gallup Pakistan

Pre-Election Surveys

Field-Work Dates: 10th July to 15th July 2021

Mode of Interview: Telephonic Interviewers

Sample Size: 500+ Male and Female

Error Margin: +5-7% at 95% confidence level



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Disclaimer on Pre-Election Surveys:

Pre-Election surveys are good enough to predict most likely winner

and loser but cannot predict the margin of victory. Victory margin

depends on who turns up to vote or stays at home.

One of the largest barriers faced by pre-election voting intention

polling is estimating how many people will turn out to vote. Even

people who say they are certain to cast a ballot sometimes don't

turnout.

Similarly, voters can and do change their voting intentions prior to

and on voting day, which can cause significant deviation in

results. Gallup therefore advises caution and responsibility in use of

Pre-election surveys.

Pre-election polls are more than just prediction for who would win.

Although election polls attract a great deal of attention for their

ability to predict the outcome of elections, their most important

function is to help journalists and citizens understand the meaning

of the campaign and the election. Polls help to explain, among

other things, what issues are important, how candidate qualities

may affect voters’ decisions, and how much support there is for

particular policy changes.



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Note on Sample Size

Our sample size of 500 respondents allows us to be representative of the of

the total AJK wide vote districtution. Within the AJK the sample is distributed

and reported across various demographic groups (for example Gender)

where the effective sample size becomes smaller and therefore Error margin

applicable also changes.

The sample size used in this survey is quite adequate even in comparison to

international standards. Gallup US Daily poll is 500 and the Gallup Poll Social

Series is 1000, both having track record of reliable predictability for USA (a

country nearly 100 million larger in population of Pakistan). According to Five

Thirty Eight, one of the most credible sources on polling in the US: "Surveying

2,000 voters substantially reduces error compared with surveying 400 of

them, but surveying 10,000 voters will produce only marginal improvements

in accuracy compared with the 2,000- person survey".

Obviously, choosing a higher confidence interval will give greater accuracy

to the survey results, however, as the chart below shows, at a certain point

the benefits of conducting more surveys begins to tail off:

25 interviews has a confidence interval of 19.6 and 100 interviews has a

confidence interval of 9.8, whilst it falls to 4.4 at 500 interviews and 3.1 at 1000

interviews. However, a further 1000 interviews only lowers the confidence

interval by 0.9 to 2.2. A confidence interval of 1 (not shown on the graph)

would require a massive 9604 interviews.

Is a larger sample always better than a smaller sample?

https://badanalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/sampling-fig5.png



50 | P a g e

Larger samples are generally more precise, but sometimes not. The

important rule in sampling is not how many poll respondents are selected

but, instead, how they are selected. A reliable sample selects poll

respondents randomly or in a manner which insures that everyone in the

area being surveyed has a known chance of being selected.

How do you interpret Error Margins?

How do you interpret a margin of error? Suppose you know that 51% of

people sampled say that they plan to vote for Mr X in the upcoming

election. Now, projecting these results to the whole voting population, you

would have to add and subtract the margin of error and give a range of

possible results in order to have sufficient confidence that you’re bridging

the gap between your sample and the population. Supposing a margin of

error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, you would be pretty confident

that between 48% (= 51% – 3%) and 54% (= 51% + 3%) of the population will

vote for Mr X in the election, based on the sample results. In this case, Mr X

may get slightly more or slightly less than the majority of votes and could

either win or lose the election. This has become a familiar situation in recent

years when the media want to report results on Election Night, but based on

early exit polling results, the election is “too close to call.”

What Error Margins do not mean

The margin of error measures accuracy; it does not measure the amount of

bias that may be present. Results that look numerically scientific and precise

don’t mean anything if they were collected in a biased way

Page 51 of 51

Contact details:

Email: [email protected]

www.gallup.com.pk

www.gallup-international.com

Disclaimer: Gallup Pakistan is not related to Gallup Inc. headquartered in Washington D.C. USA. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup Pakistan (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). We disclaim any responsibility for surveys pertaining to Pakistani public opinion except those carried out by Gallup Pakistan, the Pakistani affiliate of Gallup International Association. For details on Gallup

International Association see website: www.gallup-international.com

Gallup Pakistan has conducted this poll according to the ESOMAR Code of Ethics and internationally recognized principles of scientific polling. The results in this Report do not represent views held by the authors or Gallup Pakistan. The results only represent public opinion, computed on the basis of views expressed by anonymous respondents selected through the procedure outlined in the Methodology section of this Report.

http://www.gallup-international.com/#_blank

Documents

Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir