SO2 Data Analysis

 

The following 4 slides attempt to provide a context for a re-analysis of the model results using the milestone inventory. If model results show a reduction in sulfate on the Colorado Plateau on the 20% worst (modeled) days, those results could be added to the slide show to complete the picture. Slide 1: 1990 – 1999 Improve data, 20% worst days•Pie chart: Average contribution to extinction of selected components over 10 years

•Bar chart: SO4, variance from the mean at individual stations over the same time period

Slide 2: A comparison of OC and SO4 as a percentage of Bext, and their correlation to emissions from wildfire.

Slide 3: A qualitative relationship between observed sulfate on the Colorado Plateau and the 1996 WRAP modeling inventory for the 9 transport states (without fugitive dust).

Slide 4: Comparisons between the 1996, 2018 base, and 2018 milestone inventories for point source SO2 in the 9-state region. A 32% reduction in electric utility SO2 in the milestone inventory yields a 21% reduction in total point source SO2 in the region.

Sources:•Improve: Annual Light Extinction Group 10, 50, 90http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/DatawareHouse/IMPROVE/Data/SummaryData/RECONBEXT_annual.TXT 

•Projections Report for the 2018 Base Case Emission InventoryPechan, May 2002 on WRAP emissions forum page•Spreadsheets for various inventory components located on the WRAP Emissions Forum page• Interagency situation reports for U.S. wildfires. http://www.nifc.gov/news/nicc.html

Patrick BarickmanColleen DelaneyBrock LeBaronUtah DAQ August, 2002

SO437%

NO37%OC

24%

LAC10%

CM22%

Components of Visibility Degradation on the Colorado Plateau 1989 – 1999 as Measured at 6 Locations ( 20% Worst Days )

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

Bandelier Bryce Cyn Cynlands Grand Cyn Mesa Verde Petrified

Mean

Variation in Sulfate Contribution to Visibility Degradation During the 20% Worst Days 1989 - 1999

Western Wildfires

0

0.5

11.5

2

2.5

33.5

4

4.5

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Mil

lio

ns

of

Ac

res

Bu

rne

d

Bryce Canyon

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

SO4

OC

Canyonlands

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

SO4

OC

Grand Canyon

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

SO4

OC

Mesa Verde

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

SO4

OC

Correlation between wildfireintensity and the SO4/OCcontribution to Bext on the

Colorado Plateau.

SO4

OC

VOC24%

NOx19%

SO26%

PM1028%

PM2.511%

NH312%

SO437%

NO37%OC

24%

LAC10%

CM22%

Utility60%Smelters

15%

Others25%

Point 72%

Area 6%

Rx burn 0%On road 2%

Non road 16%

Wildfire 4%

1996 Inventory - 9 Transport States, All Sources

1996 SO2 Inventory

Components of Visibility Degradation on the Colorado Plateau 1989 – 1999 as Measured at 6 Locations ( 20% Worst Days )

459,017 426,795

290,882

115,29378,000

79,388

196,130

137,339

139,729

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1996 2018 Milestone

Others

Smelters

Utility

426,795

290,882

78,000

79,388

137,339

139,729

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Base Year Milestone

To

ns/

Yea

r

Others

Smelters

Utliity

17% Reduction in Point Source SO2 From 1996 to 2018 Base Year

Point Source SO2 – 1996, 2018 Base Year, 2018 Milestone

21% reduction in Point Source SO2 From the 2018 Base Year to the 2018 Milestone Inventory

Reduction in Electric Utility SO2 = 32%