Snow, Ice and Permafrost Hazards Workshop

June 13, 2011Pre-workshop Survey Results

Sarah Trainor, UAFLena Krutikov, UAF

Nils Andreassen, ION Karlin Itchoak, ION

Thank Youfor filling out the survey!!

23 Responses - 19 self identifiedState, Federal, Private, University ADEC (2) ADGGS (2) ADNR (4)

Division of Mining, Land and Water Division of Oil and Gas ADOT (1) BOEMRE (1) NOAA, National Weather Service (1) NMFS (1) USCG (1) Alyeska Pipeline (1) Private Consulting (1) University of Alaska (UAA, UAF – 4)

Decisions related to snow, ice and permafrost in Alaska.

Examples of types of routine decisions

Travel

Maintenance/Monitoring

Regulatory/Permitting/Safety

Site Evaluation/Infrastructure

Other

Information Needs

SNOW:• Amount, form, & pre-existing conditions for driving safety.• Snow pack, aufeis formation, temperatures. • What snow and ice information is available and applicable to hydropower

staff in other regions?

ICE:• Long term trends in sea ice coverage in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas;

length of the open water season on the OCS; percentage of ice coverage in the fall shoulder season.

• Depth of burial for pilings and appropriate methods of installation; jacking or subsidence issues; spring breakup conditions; offshore platform fires or oil spills in non-open water conditions (broken ice); Cook Inlet ice effects on platforms and rig accessibility.

• Extent of shorefast ice, ice shelf location, and depth of ice.

Information Needs - continued

PERMAFROST:• Prominent direction of the wind, water source and what caused the subsidence.• Local ground temperatures and variability with season and expected change with

time.• Location and extent of ice-rich (thaw unstable) permafrost in existing and

potential transportation corridors.• Forecasts and nowcasts from NWS and a sensor system for surface and subsurface

conditions.• Near term and long term effects of cryospheric change in relation to geologic

hazards to infrastructure.

HYDROLOGY• Location, discharge volumes.• Hydrology, vegetation information.• Effects of hydropower projects on NMFS trust resources - primarily anadromous

and marine fish and marine mammals.

Information Needs - continued

MIX/OTHER:• Climate data and change of climate.• Detailed current maps.• The extents of snow, ice and permafrost. How and why these extents

are changing in space and time. What are predicted changes? • Snow depths, soil temperatures, active layer depths, erosion and

subsidence in relation to gravel fill and remediation projects.• Logging results from hydrocarbon exploration wells, seismic reflection

and seismic refraction data. • Short and long term effects of access, exploration, development and

transportation activities for oil and gas resources development. Comparison of site restoration with active human efforts to natural restoration without intervention(s).

• Climatic, geography, materials stability.

Awareness of current research

Are you aware of current research at UA?

YesNo

Collaboration with UA scientists

Do you collaborate with UA scientists?

YesNo

Where do you go for scientific information?

INTERNET:General online search (7)Specific websites (8) = ARLIS, NSSI, CRREL , USGS, UAF, NOAA - NSIDC, AEDIS

LITERATURE:General (4) Internal historical literature (1)Library (3) = Geophysical Institute library, personal library, State Library System Conference proceedings (1) DIRECT COMMUNICATION:Personal Contacts (4) = GW Scientific, CRREL, USGS, UAFPhone calls (1) = UAFApplicant (1)

Best ways to receive information

Good (or best) way to get information

Bad way to get information

Participation in scientific conferences 8

Peer-reviewed journal articles 9 3

1-page fact sheets sent via regular mail 2 2

4-6 page newsletter sent via email 1 1

Technical reports 7

Webinars/seminars/teleconferences 5 1

In-person science workshops hosted by the University 7

On-line research database 7 3

Other 2

OTHER:• in-person workshops (local are best)• AEDIS should be restored and updated• Podcasts; iTunes U• Science workshops hosted by industry• Direct interaction with colleagues on an ad-hoc basis.• I'd like to see a “who’s who” of cryospheric research -

academia and agencies - NOAA, NASA, USGS, UAF, foreign universities, etc. It can't be a very large pool!

• A well maintained, reliable, data rich web site - with occasional announcements on updates through list serves - like ArcticInfo

Best ways to receive information - continued

Has scientific research been useful to you in your planning or decision making?

Yes

No

Examples

SNOW/GLACIERS:• Roadway snow quality.• Snow sampling methods.• Glacier lake outburst floods. • Changes in glacier mass balance and extent

ICE:• Changes in sea ice. • Sea ice extent and character.• Forecasting ice shelf and thickness• Presence of permafrost in exploration wells.• The Joint Industry Project (JIP) looking at oil spill response in ice.

Photo by M. Druckenmiller

PERMAFROST:Changes in the depth of the active layer. Forensic study of syngenetic permafrost in highway project. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS:Judging climate change impacts on coastal villages.Climate change and ground temperaturesImpacts of Climate Change and Variability on Hydropower in SE Alaska OTHER:Impacts from pollutants on water.Constantly using research to advise the legislature, government, and industry on potential hazards and resource investmentsOil and gas activity impacts.

Examples - continued

INTERNET:General online search (4)Peer-reviewed publications (3) LITERATURE:General review (4) Industry Publications (1)

SELF :My organization's own research“Sought and found funding for it, found the right researchers and had it conducted!”“Sponsored funding after being approached by a UAF researcher.”

How did you learn about the research?

DIRECT COMMUNICATION:Personal Contacts (2) = Colleagues, GW Scientific, Arctic Transportation Network, UAFApplicant (1)Conferences (3) = e.g., Alaska Marine Science SymposiumWebinars (1) = ACCAPSNAP (1)

OTHER:Wave Hindcast ModelCaribou Steering Committee

How did you learn about the research? - continued

Were you directly involved with the research?

Yes No

UAF (10)USGS (2)GW Scientific (1)SNAP (1)

If yes, who did you work with?

What makes research especially useful for your organization/ decision-making process?

• Applicability to management decisions/ practical application

• Relevance to current activity• Site specific• Direct involvement of practitioners

Communicating Uncertainty

• “The most important aspect of useful research for decision making is relevance to current activity. That is, how can a given hazard be avoided or mitigated. Forecasting is somewhat useful, but full disclosure of assumptions and probabilistic distributions is critical. Non-science personnel seldom understand probability, nor, how it should be used in decision making. Nevertheless, they often use the 'mean' and call it good, sometimes with less-than-desirable results.”

Barriers to more effective use of the University of Alaska as a resource in your planning and decision-making?

• COMMUNICATION!• What research is happening• Rapid publication of results• Coordination with agencies• Access to data and results• Research synthesis• Follow through• Transparency

Questions? Comments?

Contact:sarah.trainor@alaska.edu

907- 474 -7878Photo by M. Druckenmiller

Decisions - Examples

• TRAVEL (10):• Ice roads

– permitting, season opening, impact assessment, planning & construction

• Roads – permafrost related foundation & surface treatments – treatments post snow and freezing rain

• Conditions for travel via car or small aircraft – route selection, timing, tire selection

• Location for safe operation of aircraft and cutters/boats

Examples – continued

MAINTENANCE/MONITORING (11):• Snow disposal management.• Snow storage sites.• Pipeline maintenance.• Glacier lake outburst floods.• Spring breakup flood monitoring.• Glacier monitoring.• Advocate for state-wide monitoring network to improve

long-term projections of snow, glacial ice and permafrost.

• Recommend monitoring of snowpack and glacier mass balance in licensing procedure for hydropower projects.

Examples - continuedREGULATORY/PERMITTING/SAFETY (11):• Agency - water use discharge permitting.• Issue approval to repair subsidence.• Issue approval for ice roads.• Safety: snowpack evaluation for safe mountain travel and rescue.• Safety related to offshore pipelines.• Approval of projects with risk of hazards to infrastructure and people.• Dismantlement, Removal and Rehabilitation (DRR) of oil and gas

activity sites.• Review of applications for approval for surface land uses related to oil,

gas and geothermal resource development• Safety related to siting offshore drilling.• Regulation of oil and gas activities in Alaska.• Recommend projections of future precip, temp, snowpack, glacier

mass balance and permafrost changes for new hydropower projects.• Decide how to stabilize degrading permafrost to prevent clean water

act violations. • Treatment technology required in zone where subsurface organics

present in discontinuous permafrost zone.

Examples - continued

SITE EVALUATION/INFRASTRUCTURE (12):• How are these changes impacting people, property or

infrastructure? • Where are changes in snow, ice and permafrost occurring?• Site location for field measurements.• Issue approval for snow fences.• Foundation designs in permafrost.• Construction: foundation selection.• Construction.• Seasonal operational planning.• Location of supporting infrastructure.• Type and operation of subsurface/surface infrastructure. • Permafrost stability under my house.• Presence or absence of near surface permafrost.

Examples - continuedOTHER (7):• Oil spill response decisions.• Oil discharge prevention and contingency plans.• What other physical processes are involved or impacted

in association with these changes?• Topics for university teaching.• Material sources in permafrost conditions.• Probability of gas hydrate occurrence on Alaska

continental shelf.• Recreation based on snow conditions.• Snow thickness and its insulation capacity.• Liquid residual handling methods.

Collaborative Projects

SNOW & GLACIER PROJECTS:• Snow depth data collection methods.• Glacier related hazards.• Periglacial changes and associated hazards. • Snow modeling input in surface energy balance modeling• Tundra travel conditions

PERMAFROST PROJECTS:• Permafrost slope stability analysis and monitoring (AUTC)• Permafrost mapping and modeling in parts of interior Alaska

(pipeline corridor) • Western Alaska permafrost project• Tundra travel conditions

Collaborative Projects - continued

SNOW PROJECTS:• Snow depth data collection methods.• Snow modeling input in surface energy balance modeling• Tundra travel conditions

PERMAFROST PROJECTS:• Permafrost slope stability analysis and monitoring (AUTC)• Permafrost mapping and modeling in parts of interior Alaska

(pipeline corridor) • Western Alaska permafrost project• Tundra travel conditions

OTHER PROJECTS:• Energy Security

Collaborative Projects - continued

GLACIER PROJECTS:• Glacier related hazards.• Periglacial changes and associated hazards.

ICE PROJECTS:• Sea ice atlas• River ice safety• Timing of river ice breakup with DGGS, SNAP, ASF and INE

ENGINEERING PROJECTS:• UAA School of Engineering projects: numerous and diverse.• Hydroelectric power facilities in Southeast Alaska• Share information developed in our engineering practice from

across the state.

Collaborations

CRREL (2)UAF (24)UAA (1)SNAP & ACCAP (2)DGGS (1)

Extra glacier images from Wikimedia Commons – Either public domain or fair use

Extra permafrost images from Wikimedia Commons – Either public domain or fair use

Extra snow images from Wikimedia Commons – Either public domain or fair use

Extra sea ice images from NOAA