Winter Forecast 2011-2012(1st Edition)

Welcome to the much anticipated winter forecast for the 2011-2012 season! Last winter was a wild and crazy winter which got off to a fast start across the upper midwest with frequent early clipper systems that lashed Minnesota through North Dakota with unusually heavy snowfalls since clippers don't normally drop excessive amounts of snowfall. December came in with a bang with a major blizzard that enveloped the northern Plains early last December with heavy snow and strong winds from the Dakotas south through eastern Nebraska and east through Iowa, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes states which ended up collapsing the Metro Dome. The winter started off slow over the eastern United States as well as the Ohio Valley but by mid winter, started to unleash everywhere. From the Snowpocalypse from Oklahoma through Chicagoland with blizzard conditions and as much as two feet of snow fell with lightning and thunder in Chicago, to the constant mega blizzard that continued to dump over New York City and Washington DC, it was another blockbuster of a winter, two blockbuster winters in a row. Now that I have recapped what last winter was like, let's start talking about this upcoming winter shall we?

Will there be a La Nina or El Nino influencing our weather pattern? The answer is a La Nina is currently at about a 0.5 intensity going negative on the charts. A La Nina is classified as a belt of waters over the central Pacific remaining colder then average. This is such the case with the image below as of September 4th 2010;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are much colder indicating that there was a building La Nina. Water waters over the Atlantic Ocean are rather normal for La Nina Falls as this has been a rather robust Hurricane and Tropical breeding season. Now, after the unprecedented moderate La Nina last winter, could those waters over the central Pacific get any colder this time around, well lets take a look at the same date but for the year 2011, this year;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are colder but are a tad warmer due to the La Nina being much weaker then it was at this time in the late summer of 2010. Also, please notice the colder then average waters over the Gulf of Alaska. I fully expect this La Nina to strengthen further and for an idea here is the CFS computer climate model run that is indicating a moderate to a strong La Nina. Now, i think a strong La Nina is overdone, but i think without a doubt, we will have a weak La Nina and possibly a moderate but its gonna take a lot to peak it at a strong La Nina. In any, case, this La Nina will peak most likely in January. Please take a look at the CFS climate model below;

Winter 2011-2012 Temperatures

(Click to view larger image)

Winter temperatures will be much like last winter, in accordance with the very low solar activity and the -NAO influencing our weather patterns and squashing any chances of a normal La Nina which would otherwise look more like a western United States below average temperature regime rather then what you are looking at. However, with the NAO and AO being in there negative phase starting later on this fall temperatures will plummet across the Pacific Northwestern United States through the northern Plains, Great Lake states and then surge southeast through the southeastern United States through much of Florida and the eastern United States. With the NAO/AO being negative this winter check out this helpful explanation of normal negative NAO and AO winters below;

This is a helpful explanation of what the winters are like with a negative NAO and AO during a warm and cold winter phase. When it is positive expect a more so general east to west jetstream pattern bringing "milder" Pacific Air through the United States, and I use mild witha grain of salt since we are talking about winter. But this is just only one piece to the puzzle. With the exponential drought in the southeastern United States and the southern plains, I expect this relentless dry pattern to last through winter but improve some but in general with La Ninas, they are not generally too good with southern plains getting too wet during the winter. Recently the drought and high pressure down south have limited systems to just clouds, sure it has cooled down some down south, big time but it has steered away a couple tropical systems and many rain opportunities. Take a look at the drought map below;

An exponential drought continues across the southern plains and the southeastern United States with very little drought relief expected in the long term future with the wildfires continuing to burn across the Longhorn State.

Also another factor in this forecast is the low amount of sun spots, despite the recent upheaval in Geomagnetic Storms the sunspot activity remains rather low just like the last several years, that have made a big impact on temperatures over the winter in the United States. This is how low sunspot activity can affect winter temperatures;

As you can see that this clearly reflects an an eastern United States trough and colder temperatures but that is just the generalized norma assumption and that alone and not added with any other factors. We are in a very low sunspot cycle phase and just hit rock bottom near 2009 and will go up a bit for a few years then really tank near the year 2014;

Winter 2011-2012 Snowfall

(Click for larger image)

I expect much above average snowfall amounts over the Pacific Northwest through the upper midwestern United States as well as the Great lakes, Ohio Valley and the northeastern United States. I expect there to be more of a southeastern ridge but not as you would expect during a La Nina winter. This will tend to keep the storm track from not going as far south with storms forming in the Pacific Ocean and diving southeast through Texas they will remain more north so like Colorado Lows, Clippers and App Runners as well as the Nor' Easters expected. I expect there to be some really dynamic and really powerful blockbuster winter blizzards this upcoming winter. Two areas of major concerns will reside of the Mid Atlantic States as well as the Ohio Valley through the northern plains. The exact details of where are unclear, but some of the analog years I have used have had some pretty blockbuster blizzards including the year 1975 over the northern Plains. I will get into storm tracks into a the second and third winter forecast installations.

Winter Ice Accumulation Forecast

The increased above average temperatures over the south colliding with colder then average temperatures will create the potential for prolific ice storms over eastern Kansas through much of Missouri as well as portions of the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic States. Excessive amounts of ice will be likely with a couple storms this winter that could cripple entire towns for weeks cutting power out, downing tree's and power lines.

Winter Forecast 2011-2012(1st Edition)

Welcome to the much anticipated winter forecast for the 2011-2012 season! Last winter was a wild and crazy winter which got off to a fast start across the upper midwest with frequent early clipper systems that lashed Minnesota through North Dakota with unusually heavy snowfalls since clippers don't normally drop excessive amounts of snowfall. December came in with a bang with a major blizzard that enveloped the northern Plains early last December with heavy snow and strong winds from the Dakotas south through eastern Nebraska and east through Iowa, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes states which ended up collapsing the Metro Dome. The winter started off slow over the eastern United States as well as the Ohio Valley but by mid winter, started to unleash everywhere. From the Snowpocalypse from Oklahoma through Chicagoland with blizzard conditions and as much as two feet of snow fell with lightning and thunder in Chicago, to the constant mega blizzard that continued to dump over New York City and Washington DC, it was another blockbuster of a winter, two blockbuster winters in a row. Now that I have recapped what last winter was like, let's start talking about this upcoming winter shall we?

Will there be a La Nina or El Nino influencing our weather pattern? The answer is a La Nina is currently at about a 0.5 intensity going negative on the charts. A La Nina is classified as a belt of waters over the central Pacific remaining colder then average. This is such the case with the image below as of September 4th 2010;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are much colder indicating that there was a building La Nina. Water waters over the Atlantic Ocean are rather normal for La Nina Falls as this has been a rather robust Hurricane and Tropical breeding season. Now, after the unprecedented moderate La Nina last winter, could those waters over the central Pacific get any colder this time around, well lets take a look at the same date but for the year 2011, this year;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are colder but are a tad warmer due to the La Nina being much weaker then it was at this time in the late summer of 2010. Also, please notice the colder then average waters over the Gulf of Alaska. I fully expect this La Nina to strengthen further and for an idea here is the CFS computer climate model run that is indicating a moderate to a strong La Nina. Now, i think a strong La Nina is overdone, but i think without a doubt, we will have a weak La Nina and possibly a moderate but its gonna take a lot to peak it at a strong La Nina. In any, case, this La Nina will peak most likely in January. Please take a look at the CFS climate model below;

Winter 2011-2012 Temperatures

(Click to view larger image)

Winter temperatures will be much like last winter, in accordance with the very low solar activity and the -NAO influencing our weather patterns and squashing any chances of a normal La Nina which would otherwise look more like a western United States below average temperature regime rather then what you are looking at. However, with the NAO and AO being in there negative phase starting later on this fall temperatures will plummet across the Pacific Northwestern United States through the northern Plains, Great Lake states and then surge southeast through the southeastern United States through much of Florida and the eastern United States. With the NAO/AO being negative this winter check out this helpful explanation of normal negative NAO and AO winters below;

This is a helpful explanation of what the winters are like with a negative NAO and AO during a warm and cold winter phase. When it is positive expect a more so general east to west jetstream pattern bringing "milder" Pacific Air through the United States, and I use mild witha grain of salt since we are talking about winter. But this is just only one piece to the puzzle. With the exponential drought in the southeastern United States and the southern plains, I expect this relentless dry pattern to last through winter but improve some but in general with La Ninas, they are not generally too good with southern plains getting too wet during the winter. Recently the drought and high pressure down south have limited systems to just clouds, sure it has cooled down some down south, big time but it has steered away a couple tropical systems and many rain opportunities. Take a look at the drought map below;

An exponential drought continues across the southern plains and the southeastern United States with very little drought relief expected in the long term future with the wildfires continuing to burn across the Longhorn State.

Also another factor in this forecast is the low amount of sun spots, despite the recent upheaval in Geomagnetic Storms the sunspot activity remains rather low just like the last several years, that have made a big impact on temperatures over the winter in the United States. This is how low sunspot activity can affect winter temperatures;

As you can see that this clearly reflects an an eastern United States trough and colder temperatures but that is just the generalized norma assumption and that alone and not added with any other factors. We are in a very low sunspot cycle phase and just hit rock bottom near 2009 and will go up a bit for a few years then really tank near the year 2014;

Winter 2011-2012 Snowfall

(Click for larger image)

I expect much above average snowfall amounts over the Pacific Northwest through the upper midwestern United States as well as the Great lakes, Ohio Valley and the northeastern United States. I expect there to be more of a southeastern ridge but not as you would expect during a La Nina winter. This will tend to keep the storm track from not going as far south with storms forming in the Pacific Ocean and diving southeast through Texas they will remain more north so like Colorado Lows, Clippers and App Runners as well as the Nor' Easters expected. I expect there to be some really dynamic and really powerful blockbuster winter blizzards this upcoming winter. Two areas of major concerns will reside of the Mid Atlantic States as well as the Ohio Valley through the northern plains. The exact details of where are unclear, but some of the analog years I have used have had some pretty blockbuster blizzards including the year 1975 over the northern Plains. I will get into storm tracks into a the second and third winter forecast installations.

Winter Ice Accumulation Forecast

The increased above average temperatures over the south colliding with colder then average temperatures will create the potential for prolific ice storms over eastern Kansas through much of Missouri as well as portions of the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic States. Excessive amounts of ice will be likely with a couple storms this winter that could cripple entire towns for weeks cutting power out, downing tree's and power lines.

Winter Forecast 2011-2012(1st Edition)

Welcome to the much anticipated winter forecast for the 2011-2012 season! Last winter was a wild and crazy winter which got off to a fast start across the upper midwest with frequent early clipper systems that lashed Minnesota through North Dakota with unusually heavy snowfalls since clippers don't normally drop excessive amounts of snowfall. December came in with a bang with a major blizzard that enveloped the northern Plains early last December with heavy snow and strong winds from the Dakotas south through eastern Nebraska and east through Iowa, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes states which ended up collapsing the Metro Dome. The winter started off slow over the eastern United States as well as the Ohio Valley but by mid winter, started to unleash everywhere. From the Snowpocalypse from Oklahoma through Chicagoland with blizzard conditions and as much as two feet of snow fell with lightning and thunder in Chicago, to the constant mega blizzard that continued to dump over New York City and Washington DC, it was another blockbuster of a winter, two blockbuster winters in a row. Now that I have recapped what last winter was like, let's start talking about this upcoming winter shall we?

Will there be a La Nina or El Nino influencing our weather pattern? The answer is a La Nina is currently at about a 0.5 intensity going negative on the charts. A La Nina is classified as a belt of waters over the central Pacific remaining colder then average. This is such the case with the image below as of September 4th 2010;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are much colder indicating that there was a building La Nina. Water waters over the Atlantic Ocean are rather normal for La Nina Falls as this has been a rather robust Hurricane and Tropical breeding season. Now, after the unprecedented moderate La Nina last winter, could those waters over the central Pacific get any colder this time around, well lets take a look at the same date but for the year 2011, this year;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are colder but are a tad warmer due to the La Nina being much weaker then it was at this time in the late summer of 2010. Also, please notice the colder then average waters over the Gulf of Alaska. I fully expect this La Nina to strengthen further and for an idea here is the CFS computer climate model run that is indicating a moderate to a strong La Nina. Now, i think a strong La Nina is overdone, but i think without a doubt, we will have a weak La Nina and possibly a moderate but its gonna take a lot to peak it at a strong La Nina. In any, case, this La Nina will peak most likely in January. Please take a look at the CFS climate model below;

Winter 2011-2012 Temperatures

(Click to view larger image)

Winter temperatures will be much like last winter, in accordance with the very low solar activity and the -NAO influencing our weather patterns and squashing any chances of a normal La Nina which would otherwise look more like a western United States below average temperature regime rather then what you are looking at. However, with the NAO and AO being in there negative phase starting later on this fall temperatures will plummet across the Pacific Northwestern United States through the northern Plains, Great Lake states and then surge southeast through the southeastern United States through much of Florida and the eastern United States. With the NAO/AO being negative this winter check out this helpful explanation of normal negative NAO and AO winters below;

This is a helpful explanation of what the winters are like with a negative NAO and AO during a warm and cold winter phase. When it is positive expect a more so general east to west jetstream pattern bringing "milder" Pacific Air through the United States, and I use mild witha grain of salt since we are talking about winter. But this is just only one piece to the puzzle. With the exponential drought in the southeastern United States and the southern plains, I expect this relentless dry pattern to last through winter but improve some but in general with La Ninas, they are not generally too good with southern plains getting too wet during the winter. Recently the drought and high pressure down south have limited systems to just clouds, sure it has cooled down some down south, big time but it has steered away a couple tropical systems and many rain opportunities. Take a look at the drought map below;

An exponential drought continues across the southern plains and the southeastern United States with very little drought relief expected in the long term future with the wildfires continuing to burn across the Longhorn State.

Also another factor in this forecast is the low amount of sun spots, despite the recent upheaval in Geomagnetic Storms the sunspot activity remains rather low just like the last several years, that have made a big impact on temperatures over the winter in the United States. This is how low sunspot activity can affect winter temperatures;

As you can see that this clearly reflects an an eastern United States trough and colder temperatures but that is just the generalized norma assumption and that alone and not added with any other factors. We are in a very low sunspot cycle phase and just hit rock bottom near 2009 and will go up a bit for a few years then really tank near the year 2014;

Winter 2011-2012 Snowfall

(Click for larger image)

I expect much above average snowfall amounts over the Pacific Northwest through the upper midwestern United States as well as the Great lakes, Ohio Valley and the northeastern United States. I expect there to be more of a southeastern ridge but not as you would expect during a La Nina winter. This will tend to keep the storm track from not going as far south with storms forming in the Pacific Ocean and diving southeast through Texas they will remain more north so like Colorado Lows, Clippers and App Runners as well as the Nor' Easters expected. I expect there to be some really dynamic and really powerful blockbuster winter blizzards this upcoming winter. Two areas of major concerns will reside of the Mid Atlantic States as well as the Ohio Valley through the northern plains. The exact details of where are unclear, but some of the analog years I have used have had some pretty blockbuster blizzards including the year 1975 over the northern Plains. I will get into storm tracks into a the second and third winter forecast installations.

Winter Ice Accumulation Forecast

The increased above average temperatures over the south colliding with colder then average temperatures will create the potential for prolific ice storms over eastern Kansas through much of Missouri as well as portions of the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic States. Excessive amounts of ice will be likely with a couple storms this winter that could cripple entire towns for weeks cutting power out, downing tree's and power lines.

Winter Forecast 2011-2012(1st Edition)

Welcome to the much anticipated winter forecast for the 2011-2012 season! Last winter was a wild and crazy winter which got off to a fast start across the upper midwest with frequent early clipper systems that lashed Minnesota through North Dakota with unusually heavy snowfalls since clippers don't normally drop excessive amounts of snowfall. December came in with a bang with a major blizzard that enveloped the northern Plains early last December with heavy snow and strong winds from the Dakotas south through eastern Nebraska and east through Iowa, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes states which ended up collapsing the Metro Dome. The winter started off slow over the eastern United States as well as the Ohio Valley but by mid winter, started to unleash everywhere. From the Snowpocalypse from Oklahoma through Chicagoland with blizzard conditions and as much as two feet of snow fell with lightning and thunder in Chicago, to the constant mega blizzard that continued to dump over New York City and Washington DC, it was another blockbuster of a winter, two blockbuster winters in a row. Now that I have recapped what last winter was like, let's start talking about this upcoming winter shall we?

Will there be a La Nina or El Nino influencing our weather pattern? The answer is a La Nina is currently at about a 0.5 intensity going negative on the charts. A La Nina is classified as a belt of waters over the central Pacific remaining colder then average. This is such the case with the image below as of September 4th 2010;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are much colder indicating that there was a building La Nina. Water waters over the Atlantic Ocean are rather normal for La Nina Falls as this has been a rather robust Hurricane and Tropical breeding season. Now, after the unprecedented moderate La Nina last winter, could those waters over the central Pacific get any colder this time around, well lets take a look at the same date but for the year 2011, this year;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are colder but are a tad warmer due to the La Nina being much weaker then it was at this time in the late summer of 2010. Also, please notice the colder then average waters over the Gulf of Alaska. I fully expect this La Nina to strengthen further and for an idea here is the CFS computer climate model run that is indicating a moderate to a strong La Nina. Now, i think a strong La Nina is overdone, but i think without a doubt, we will have a weak La Nina and possibly a moderate but its gonna take a lot to peak it at a strong La Nina. In any, case, this La Nina will peak most likely in January. Please take a look at the CFS climate model below;

Winter 2011-2012 Temperatures

(Click to view larger image)

Winter temperatures will be much like last winter, in accordance with the very low solar activity and the -NAO influencing our weather patterns and squashing any chances of a normal La Nina which would otherwise look more like a western United States below average temperature regime rather then what you are looking at. However, with the NAO and AO being in there negative phase starting later on this fall temperatures will plummet across the Pacific Northwestern United States through the northern Plains, Great Lake states and then surge southeast through the southeastern United States through much of Florida and the eastern United States. With the NAO/AO being negative this winter check out this helpful explanation of normal negative NAO and AO winters below;

This is a helpful explanation of what the winters are like with a negative NAO and AO during a warm and cold winter phase. When it is positive expect a more so general east to west jetstream pattern bringing "milder" Pacific Air through the United States, and I use mild witha grain of salt since we are talking about winter. But this is just only one piece to the puzzle. With the exponential drought in the southeastern United States and the southern plains, I expect this relentless dry pattern to last through winter but improve some but in general with La Ninas, they are not generally too good with southern plains getting too wet during the winter. Recently the drought and high pressure down south have limited systems to just clouds, sure it has cooled down some down south, big time but it has steered away a couple tropical systems and many rain opportunities. Take a look at the drought map below;

An exponential drought continues across the southern plains and the southeastern United States with very little drought relief expected in the long term future with the wildfires continuing to burn across the Longhorn State.

Also another factor in this forecast is the low amount of sun spots, despite the recent upheaval in Geomagnetic Storms the sunspot activity remains rather low just like the last several years, that have made a big impact on temperatures over the winter in the United States. This is how low sunspot activity can affect winter temperatures;

As you can see that this clearly reflects an an eastern United States trough and colder temperatures but that is just the generalized norma assumption and that alone and not added with any other factors. We are in a very low sunspot cycle phase and just hit rock bottom near 2009 and will go up a bit for a few years then really tank near the year 2014;

Winter 2011-2012 Snowfall

(Click for larger image)

I expect much above average snowfall amounts over the Pacific Northwest through the upper midwestern United States as well as the Great lakes, Ohio Valley and the northeastern United States. I expect there to be more of a southeastern ridge but not as you would expect during a La Nina winter. This will tend to keep the storm track from not going as far south with storms forming in the Pacific Ocean and diving southeast through Texas they will remain more north so like Colorado Lows, Clippers and App Runners as well as the Nor' Easters expected. I expect there to be some really dynamic and really powerful blockbuster winter blizzards this upcoming winter. Two areas of major concerns will reside of the Mid Atlantic States as well as the Ohio Valley through the northern plains. The exact details of where are unclear, but some of the analog years I have used have had some pretty blockbuster blizzards including the year 1975 over the northern Plains. I will get into storm tracks into a the second and third winter forecast installations.

Winter Ice Accumulation Forecast

The increased above average temperatures over the south colliding with colder then average temperatures will create the potential for prolific ice storms over eastern Kansas through much of Missouri as well as portions of the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic States. Excessive amounts of ice will be likely with a couple storms this winter that could cripple entire towns for weeks cutting power out, downing tree's and power lines.

Winter Forecast 2011-2012(1st Edition)

Welcome to the much anticipated winter forecast for the 2011-2012 season! Last winter was a wild and crazy winter which got off to a fast start across the upper midwest with frequent early clipper systems that lashed Minnesota through North Dakota with unusually heavy snowfalls since clippers don't normally drop excessive amounts of snowfall. December came in with a bang with a major blizzard that enveloped the northern Plains early last December with heavy snow and strong winds from the Dakotas south through eastern Nebraska and east through Iowa, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes states which ended up collapsing the Metro Dome. The winter started off slow over the eastern United States as well as the Ohio Valley but by mid winter, started to unleash everywhere. From the Snowpocalypse from Oklahoma through Chicagoland with blizzard conditions and as much as two feet of snow fell with lightning and thunder in Chicago, to the constant mega blizzard that continued to dump over New York City and Washington DC, it was another blockbuster of a winter, two blockbuster winters in a row. Now that I have recapped what last winter was like, let's start talking about this upcoming winter shall we?

Will there be a La Nina or El Nino influencing our weather pattern? The answer is a La Nina is currently at about a 0.5 intensity going negative on the charts. A La Nina is classified as a belt of waters over the central Pacific remaining colder then average. This is such the case with the image below as of September 4th 2010;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are much colder indicating that there was a building La Nina. Water waters over the Atlantic Ocean are rather normal for La Nina Falls as this has been a rather robust Hurricane and Tropical breeding season. Now, after the unprecedented moderate La Nina last winter, could those waters over the central Pacific get any colder this time around, well lets take a look at the same date but for the year 2011, this year;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are colder but are a tad warmer due to the La Nina being much weaker then it was at this time in the late summer of 2010. Also, please notice the colder then average waters over the Gulf of Alaska. I fully expect this La Nina to strengthen further and for an idea here is the CFS computer climate model run that is indicating a moderate to a strong La Nina. Now, i think a strong La Nina is overdone, but i think without a doubt, we will have a weak La Nina and possibly a moderate but its gonna take a lot to peak it at a strong La Nina. In any, case, this La Nina will peak most likely in January. Please take a look at the CFS climate model below;

Winter 2011-2012 Temperatures

(Click to view larger image)

Winter temperatures will be much like last winter, in accordance with the very low solar activity and the -NAO influencing our weather patterns and squashing any chances of a normal La Nina which would otherwise look more like a western United States below average temperature regime rather then what you are looking at. However, with the NAO and AO being in there negative phase starting later on this fall temperatures will plummet across the Pacific Northwestern United States through the northern Plains, Great Lake states and then surge southeast through the southeastern United States through much of Florida and the eastern United States. With the NAO/AO being negative this winter check out this helpful explanation of normal negative NAO and AO winters below;

This is a helpful explanation of what the winters are like with a negative NAO and AO during a warm and cold winter phase. When it is positive expect a more so general east to west jetstream pattern bringing "milder" Pacific Air through the United States, and I use mild witha grain of salt since we are talking about winter. But this is just only one piece to the puzzle. With the exponential drought in the southeastern United States and the southern plains, I expect this relentless dry pattern to last through winter but improve some but in general with La Ninas, they are not generally too good with southern plains getting too wet during the winter. Recently the drought and high pressure down south have limited systems to just clouds, sure it has cooled down some down south, big time but it has steered away a couple tropical systems and many rain opportunities. Take a look at the drought map below;

An exponential drought continues across the southern plains and the southeastern United States with very little drought relief expected in the long term future with the wildfires continuing to burn across the Longhorn State.

Also another factor in this forecast is the low amount of sun spots, despite the recent upheaval in Geomagnetic Storms the sunspot activity remains rather low just like the last several years, that have made a big impact on temperatures over the winter in the United States. This is how low sunspot activity can affect winter temperatures;

As you can see that this clearly reflects an an eastern United States trough and colder temperatures but that is just the generalized norma assumption and that alone and not added with any other factors. We are in a very low sunspot cycle phase and just hit rock bottom near 2009 and will go up a bit for a few years then really tank near the year 2014;

Winter 2011-2012 Snowfall

(Click for larger image)

I expect much above average snowfall amounts over the Pacific Northwest through the upper midwestern United States as well as the Great lakes, Ohio Valley and the northeastern United States. I expect there to be more of a southeastern ridge but not as you would expect during a La Nina winter. This will tend to keep the storm track from not going as far south with storms forming in the Pacific Ocean and diving southeast through Texas they will remain more north so like Colorado Lows, Clippers and App Runners as well as the Nor' Easters expected. I expect there to be some really dynamic and really powerful blockbuster winter blizzards this upcoming winter. Two areas of major concerns will reside of the Mid Atlantic States as well as the Ohio Valley through the northern plains. The exact details of where are unclear, but some of the analog years I have used have had some pretty blockbuster blizzards including the year 1975 over the northern Plains. I will get into storm tracks into a the second and third winter forecast installations.

Winter Ice Accumulation Forecast

The increased above average temperatures over the south colliding with colder then average temperatures will create the potential for prolific ice storms over eastern Kansas through much of Missouri as well as portions of the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic States. Excessive amounts of ice will be likely with a couple storms this winter that could cripple entire towns for weeks cutting power out, downing tree's and power lines.

Winter Forecast 2011-2012(1st Edition)

Welcome to the much anticipated winter forecast for the 2011-2012 season! Last winter was a wild and crazy winter which got off to a fast start across the upper midwest with frequent early clipper systems that lashed Minnesota through North Dakota with unusually heavy snowfalls since clippers don't normally drop excessive amounts of snowfall. December came in with a bang with a major blizzard that enveloped the northern Plains early last December with heavy snow and strong winds from the Dakotas south through eastern Nebraska and east through Iowa, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes states which ended up collapsing the Metro Dome. The winter started off slow over the eastern United States as well as the Ohio Valley but by mid winter, started to unleash everywhere. From the Snowpocalypse from Oklahoma through Chicagoland with blizzard conditions and as much as two feet of snow fell with lightning and thunder in Chicago, to the constant mega blizzard that continued to dump over New York City and Washington DC, it was another blockbuster of a winter, two blockbuster winters in a row. Now that I have recapped what last winter was like, let's start talking about this upcoming winter shall we?

Will there be a La Nina or El Nino influencing our weather pattern? The answer is a La Nina is currently at about a 0.5 intensity going negative on the charts. A La Nina is classified as a belt of waters over the central Pacific remaining colder then average. This is such the case with the image below as of September 4th 2010;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are much colder indicating that there was a building La Nina. Water waters over the Atlantic Ocean are rather normal for La Nina Falls as this has been a rather robust Hurricane and Tropical breeding season. Now, after the unprecedented moderate La Nina last winter, could those waters over the central Pacific get any colder this time around, well lets take a look at the same date but for the year 2011, this year;

As you can see, the waters over the central Pacific are colder but are a tad warmer due to the La Nina being much weaker then it was at this time in the late summer of 2010. Also, please notice the colder then average waters over the Gulf of Alaska. I fully expect this La Nina to strengthen further and for an idea here is the CFS computer climate model run that is indicating a moderate to a strong La Nina. Now, i think a strong La Nina is overdone, but i think without a doubt, we will have a weak La Nina and possibly a moderate but its gonna take a lot to peak it at a strong La Nina. In any, case, this La Nina will peak most likely in January. Please take a look at the CFS climate model below;

Winter 2011-2012 Temperatures

(Click to view larger image)

Winter temperatures will be much like last winter, in accordance with the very low solar activity and the -NAO influencing our weather patterns and squashing any chances of a normal La Nina which would otherwise look more like a western United States below average temperature regime rather then what you are looking at. However, with the NAO and AO being in there negative phase starting later on this fall temperatures will plummet across the Pacific Northwestern United States through the northern Plains, Great Lake states and then surge southeast through the southeastern United States through much of Florida and the eastern United States. With the NAO/AO being negative this winter check out this helpful explanation of normal negative NAO and AO winters below;

This is a helpful explanation of what the winters are like with a negative NAO and AO during a warm and cold winter phase. When it is positive expect a more so general east to west jetstream pattern bringing "milder" Pacific Air through the United States, and I use mild witha grain of salt since we are talking about winter. But this is just only one piece to the puzzle. With the exponential drought in the southeastern United States and the southern plains, I expect this relentless dry pattern to last through winter but improve some but in general with La Ninas, they are not generally too good with southern plains getting too wet during the winter. Recently the drought and high pressure down south have limited systems to just clouds, sure it has cooled down some down south, big time but it has steered away a couple tropical systems and many rain opportunities. Take a look at the drought map below;

An exponential drought continues across the southern plains and the southeastern United States with very little drought relief expected in the long term future with the wildfires continuing to burn across the Longhorn State.

Also another factor in this forecast is the low amount of sun spots, despite the recent upheaval in Geomagnetic Storms the sunspot activity remains rather low just like the last several years, that have made a big impact on temperatures over the winter in the United States. This is how low sunspot activity can affect winter temperatures;

As you can see that this clearly reflects an an eastern United States trough and colder temperatures but that is just the generalized norma assumption and that alone and not added with any other factors. We are in a very low sunspot cycle phase and just hit rock bottom near 2009 and will go up a bit for a few years then really tank near the year 2014;

Winter 2011-2012 Snowfall

(Click for larger image)

I expect much above average snowfall amounts over the Pacific Northwest through the upper midwestern United States as well as the Great lakes, Ohio Valley and the northeastern United States. I expect there to be more of a southeastern ridge but not as you would expect during a La Nina winter. This will tend to keep the storm track from not going as far south with storms forming in the Pacific Ocean and diving southeast through Texas they will remain more north so like Colorado Lows, Clippers and App Runners as well as the Nor' Easters expected. I expect there to be some really dynamic and really powerful blockbuster winter blizzards this upcoming winter. Two areas of major concerns will reside of the Mid Atlantic States as well as the Ohio Valley through the northern plains. The exact details of where are unclear, but some of the analog years I have used have had some pretty blockbuster blizzards including the year 1975 over the northern Plains. I will get into storm tracks into a the second and third winter forecast installations.

Winter Ice Accumulation Forecast

The increased above average temperatures over the south colliding with colder then average temperatures will create the potential for prolific ice storms over eastern Kansas through much of Missouri as well as portions of the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic States. Excessive amounts of ice will be likely with a couple storms this winter that could cripple entire towns for weeks cutting power out, downing tree's and power lines.