Miranda Kirschel (Powered by Atkins)

SMR Feasibility Study

The SMR Study – Global Market Study

What is the SMR Market?

Why SMRs?

How big might it be?

How will it be addressed?

A work in progress

What are the technologies?

“The trend in SMR development has been towards design certification of small modular reactors, defined as advanced reactors that produce electric power up to 300 MW(e), designed to be built in factories and shipped to utilities for installation as demand arises”.

Name Capacity Type Developer

CNP-300 300 MWe PWR CNNC,

operational in Pakistan

PHWR-220 220 MWe PHWR NPCIL, India

Name Capacity Type Developer

KLT-40S 35 MWe PWR OKBM, Russia

CAREM 27 MWe PWR CNEA & INVAP,

Argentina

HTR-PM 2x105 MWe HTR INET &

Huaneng, China

Small (25 MWe up) reactors operating / under construction

Name Capacity Type Developer

VBER-300 300 MWe PWR OKBM, Russia

IRIS 100-335 MWe PWR Westinghouse-led,

international*

Westinghouse SMR 225 MWe PWR Westinghouse, USA*

mPower 180 MWe PWR Babcock & Wilcox + Bechtel,

USA

SMR-160 160 MWe PWR Holtec, USA

ACP100 100 MWe PWR CNNC & Guodian, China

SMART 100 MWe PWR KAERI, South Korea

NuScale 45 MWe PWR NuScale Power + Fluor, USA

PBMR 165 MWe HTR PBMR, South Africa; NPMC,

USA*

Prism 311 MWe FNR GE-Hitachi, USA

BREST 300 MWe FNR RDIPE, Russia

SVBR-100 100 MWe FNR AKME-engineering, Russia

Small (25 MWe up) reactors – development well advanced

* well-advanced designs understood to be on hold

Source:

Name Capacity Type Developer

EM2 240 MWe HTR, FNR General Atomics

(USA)

VK-300 300 MWe BWR RDIPE, Russia

AHWR-300 LEU 300 MWe PHWR BARC, India

CAP150 150 MWe PWR SNERDI, China

ACPR100 140 MWe PWR CGN, China

SC-HTGR (Antares) 250 MWe HTR Areva

Gen4 module 25 MWe FNR Gen4 (Hyperion),

USA

IMR 350 MWe PWR Mitsubishi, Japan

LFTR/TMSR 5, 100 MWe MSR SINAP, China

Integral MSR 29, 120, 288 MWe MSR Terrestrial Energy,

Canada

Fuji MSR 100-200 MWe MSR ITHMSI, Japan-

Russia-USA

Leadir-PS100 36 MWe lead-cooled Northern Nuclear,

Canada

Small (25 MWe up) reactor designs at earlier stages

Source:

Region Trend SMR Activity

North America Numerous designs at varying levels of maturity

South America Small reactor under construction

Europe Interest to own, sell and buy

Russia Barge-Mounted SMR being Commercially Deployed

MENA Interest for desalination and remote locations

Asia ACP100 and HTR-PM starting construction

What are the market drivers?

(Primary energy) Growth to 2035 is 45% (high) 33% (low)

Electricity demand is projected to grow 81% from 2011 to 2035 (from 19,004 TWh to 34,454 TWh) (high), 69% (to 32,150 TWh) (low).

Increased demand is most dramatic in Asia, projected to average 4.0% or 3.6% per year respectively to 2035.

Currently some two billion people have no access to electricity, and it is a high priority to address this lack.

Total electricity consumption in the world today: 4.8TW

Total nuclear electricity: 500GW

Anticipated need in 2035 to be approx: 9TW

Nuclear power provides about 11% of the world's electricity

21% of electricity in OECD countries

2035 ~900GW of nuclear, which represents a new nuclear market of ~700GW

Nuclear Drivers Small Nuclear Drivers

Energy Needs

Low carbon energy sources

Continuous Energy Supply

Diverse Energy Supply

Population Growth

Affordable Electricity

Replacement plant

Decentralisation Weak or No Grid Desalination (EU: 3000

billion m3 of fresh water 2030*)

Affordability – Capital Modularity – Scalable Proximity to customer Replacement capacity

*European Environment Agency:

Power Users Niche Markets

Utilities

Investors

Governments

Industry

Consumers

Energy Intensive Industry

Desalination District Heating On-Site Generation Independent Power

Producers

Demand (high per capita demand) Population growth rate Nuclear-friendly; and non-proliferation Energy Security Failed States Index % limit of plant size on grid Purchasing Power Energy imports Competence in local supply chain R&D Resources Geographic drivers (local) Geopolitics, trade and technology transfer

Economics: capital cost and financing Climate change Over-capacity from GW reactors Potential risk reduction: factor replication It has started Innovative space that this country has done

extremely well in Workforce of 70,000 people, brightest minds “Once in a generation opportunity” to be

involved in new build

Volume, in principle...

There are over 430 commercial nuclear power reactors operable today, delivering over 370GWe

IEA/NEA Nuclear Technology Roadmap projects over 900GWe by 2050

If 30% of the global nuclear market is made up of SMRs that could equate to 2000 at 500MW or 20,000 at 50MW

Plus, some markets can’t support/don’t need large nuclear so SMR numbers may be higher

Barrier, risks, dependencies

Number/scalability of modules Number of Staff Construction, Ops (remote monitoring?), Fuel Costs,

Decom Regulatory process (intrinsic safety?) Sites Grid infrastructure Public acceptability Volatility of gas Cost of carbon Indigenous competition Policy changes First to market

Price (/Mwh)

Nuclear will continue to play a consistent role

SMRs will be economically competitive

They will work!

Regulatory barriers will be overcome

SMRs will be complimentary to large-scale

Cater to regions where large plants are not suitable

A potential significant global market

Niche markets may be harder to quantify

Large markets anticipated in Russia, China, US; plus Europe and Middle East

Being a vendor in one key market limits another

Learner findings are possible

Multiple GW in numerous countries

Value in the order of hundreds of billion £

• What do the utilities think?

• Would you buy an SMR?

• What would make someone take the risk first?