UsingCynefin toNavigateUncertainty

KimBallestrin

kimballestrin

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TheCynefin Framework

TheCynefin FrameworkbyDaveSnowden2014

Unordered Ordered

Cynefin – ACheckingTool

Notadirecttool– likeatrowelwhenwearebuildingawall

Morelikeaspirit-levelorstringline– withoutitthewalliswonky

Context– Project-BasedWork

IdeaCollaborationSessions

Listthecapabilities– BroadandShallow

NarrowtheScope

ArgueScopeIn- Easier

ArgueScopeOut- Harder

ClassifytheCapabilities

EasyCanaskforanEstimate

AnalysisCanbeSolvedbySubjectMatterExperts

WorkshopsDerailed

CausesofDerailmentCanofWormsDifficulttocontainedonceopened

RabbitHoleAdeepdarkplacethatleadsnowhere

WildGooseChaseApointlesswasteoftimeandenergy

CanofWormsTrickytoTackleorNoObviousAnswers

NamethePeopleandGroupsforEasyandAnalysisItems

CansofWorms– ExperimentsturnAssumptionsintoFacts

SomeoftheTheoryBehindtheContextandExperience

Expertise'Expertisecanalsogetusintrouble.Itcanleadustoviewproblemsinstereotypedways.Thesenseoftypicalitycanbesostrongthatwemisssubtlesignsoftrouble...theseshortcomingsseemasmallpricetopay;however,theremaybetimeswhenafreshsetofeyesproveshelpful‘Klein,G.1998.SourcesofPower:HowPeopleMakeDecisions.MITPress.

Experts Non-Experts

140Decisionsin2Days

ExpertsAnalysisDecisions

Experts Experts

CanofWormsDecisions

UsingCynefin inContext

Obvious

Easy

Complicated

Analysis

Complex

'CanofWorms'

Chaotic

UsesoftheCynefin FrameworkClassification• Tosortitemsofworkandeventssothatthemosteffectiveapproachescanbeexecuted

Sense-Making• Togainalignmentbetweenpeople,especiallywherethereisdisagreement

Movementaroundtheframework• Takingdeliberateactiontomove‘systems’fromcomplextocomplicatedandthenobviousifneeded

Classification

PaintPoles

Implementnewtechfeature

Developnewtechnology

Sev 1Outage

ProgramplanningPlacetheprogram/projectnamesontotheframeworktodeterminethemosteffectiveplanningapproaches

• Obvious – assignaleadtoplanandexecutetheprogram/project

• Complicated – identifytheappropriateexpertstoplanandthenexecutetheprogram/project

• Complex – startwithanexploratory/R&D,orexperimentalapproachuntilcertaintyisincreasedandtheprogram/projectmovesintothecomplicateddomain

StrategyE.g.inChaotic – preparation forSev 1outagesincludedrillssothatteamsareprepared torespondmoreeffectively

Facilitation

Isitadefect?(Developer)

Isitadefect?(ProgramManager)

Sortingthroughdisagreements• Aquestionassimpleas‘Isitadefect?’canbe

intheobviousdomainforadeveloperandinthecomplexdomainforaprogrammanager

• Theframeworkprovidesabasistoachieveacommonunderstandingofcomplexissues

Changemanagement• FacilitationtechniquesbasedontheCynefin

frameworkenableconstructiveconversations,evenabouttopicsthatarehighlypolitical

MovementThroughtheDomainsComplextoComplicated• ResearchandDevelopment

• Experimentation

• EarlyphasesofAgile

ComplicatedtoObvious• Standardisationofpractices

• Opportunities forAutomation

‘Shallow’DipintoChaotic• Deliberatedisruption (itisa‘shallow’dip

becausesustainedchaosleadstosub-optimaloutcomes)

TypesofRisk

Obvious

Catastrophic

Uncertain

OtherTypesofRisk

Inventory

Wait-Time

SunkCost‘Truth’

IdeaCollaborationSessionsStopUnfeasibleIdeasEarly

Principles•Coverscopebroadlyandshallowly•Narrowthescopeasearlyaspossible•Arguescopeinratherthanarguescopeout

•Classifythework– Easy,Analysis,CansofWorms•Planworkshopsaroundthedifferentclassifications

Principles

.....AndQuarantineThoseCansofWorms

ThankyouKimBallestrin

kimballestrin

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elabor8

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