Smart Energy Systems or electrification - Infrastructures and paths to 100% Renewable energy – studies from the projects RE-INVEST, Heat Roadmap Europe, the 4DH Centre.Brian Vad Mathiesen; Friday 23 February 2018Eufores – Renewable Energy Workshop; Location: Parliament, Copenhagen, Denmark

@BrianVad

Energy System Challenges and opportunities Questions and strategic decisions

- Lower and lower Renewable Energy investment costs (Electricity especially)

- Batteries are falling in price- Electricity prices are falling (sign of system design failure) and

cannot merit investments in new capacity- Power plants for back-up is closing down (lower operation

hours)

- How should we use and balance (energy storage) more electricity from renewable energy?

- How should we re-design the energy system and how much renewable energy is needed?

(sources: EnergyPLAN cost database)

Bio

mas

s

Ph

oto

V

olt

aics

Win

d p

ow

er

Danish Potentials0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1970 '75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Primary Energy Supply, PJ

Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet

Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport

40 YEARS OF ENERGY PLANNING AND

MARKET DESIGN

90

110

130

150

170

190

19

80

'83

'86

'89

'92

'95

'98

'01

'04

'07

'10

Ind

eks

Energiforbrug Danmark

Danmark BNP

L O W C O N S U M P T I O N

L O W C O S T S

S E C U R I T Y O F S U P P L Y

L O W C O 2 - E M I S S I O N S

Energy System Challenges and opportunities Questions and strategic decisions

- Electricity demands the smallest of the demands- Both transport & heating/cooling demands larger- Electricity grids are much more expensive than thermal

grids/gas grids (pr. capacity)- Energy storages have different costs in different sectors and

different scales

- What are the role of the grids in the future - How can energy storage be used across sectors to transform

all demands to renewable energy cost-effectively?- How important are energy savings in the future and what is

the balance between electricity or heat savings compared to renewable energy?

Cost of Heat Savings (€/kWh)

Amount of Savings (TWh)

Cost of Supplying Heat

30-50%

Source: Mapping and analyses of the current and future heating-cooling fuel

deployment, DG Energy, 2016

Three focus areas for buildings

S T OP B E FO R E

P A S SIVE

H O U SE

S T A N D A R D S

Energy System Challenges and opportunities Questions and strategic decisions

- Bio-refinery technology is developing rapidly but bioenergy is a limited resource and can have adverse effects outside the energy sector

- Transport sector technologies are emerging fast

- What technologies are key for the transport sector?- What is the role of bioenergy in future energy systems?- What is the future role of the gas systems?

- New technologies may develop- The international energy context is uncertain

- How can key Danish strength help on an international level and what investments are robust in an uncertain future?

Download rapport:

www.EnergyPLAN.eu/IDA

Smart Energy Systems

Unit Investment Costs for Energy Storage

Electricity Thermal

€125/kWh

€300/kWh

€1/kWh

€90/kWh

1. Thermal Cheaper at All Scales

Unit Investment Costs for Energy Storage

Electricity Thermal

€125/kWh

€300/kWh

€1/kWh

€90/kWh

1. Thermal Cheaper at All Scales

2. Bigger is Better i.e. Cheaper

Pump Hydro Storage

175 €/kWh (Source: Electricity Energy Storage

Technology Options: A White Paper

Primer on Applications, Costs, and

Benefits. Electric Power Research

Institute, 2010)

Natural Gas Underground Storage

0.05 €/kWh (Source: Current State Of and Issues

Concerning Underground Natural Gas

Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory

Commission, 2004)

Oil Tank

0.02 €/kWh (Source: Dahl KH, Oil tanking

Copenhagen A/S, 2013: Oil Storage

Tank. 2013)

Thermal Storage

1-4 €/kWh (Source: Danish Technology

Catalogue, 2012)

Heat energy storage 6200 m3 Thermal

Storage

2500 €/MWh

(Skagen: 6200 m3

for 5.4 mio. DKK)

0.16 m3 Thermal Storage

300.000 €/MWh

(Private house: 160 liter

for 15000 DKK)

200,000 m3 Thermal Storage

500 €/MWh

(Vojens: 200,000 m3

for 30 mio. DKK)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

160 liter 4 m3 6200 m3 200.000 m3

Pri

ce (

€/M

Wh

)

Thermal storage: Price and Size

4 m3 Thermal Storage

40,000 €/MWh

(Private outdoor: 4000 m3

for 50,000 DKK)

HOW TO USE STORAGES LONG TERM..

• Three crucial grids in Smart Energy Systems

• Smart electricity grids

• Smart thermal grids

• Smart gas grids

• High capacity electrolyses (Power-to-gas)

• More district heating and district cooling

• Large heat pumps with high capacity (Power-to-heat)

• CHP, solar thermal, etc.

• Electricity storage in transport (batteries and electrofuels)

• Production of green gasses and synthetic fuelsW W W . S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S . E U

STATE-OF-THE-ART-KNOWLEDGE ON

100% RENEWABLE ENERGY IN 2050

Savings in Energy Denmand

Efficiency improvements in

energy production

Renewable energy sources

(RES)

F L E X I B L E

T E C H N O L O G I E S

I N T E G R A T E D

E N E R G Y

S Y S T E M S

Heat Roadmap Europe MethodologyGIS Mapping

(could be another technology, resource, etc)

District Heating Demands

District Heating Resources

Energy System Modelling

(www.EnergyPLAN.eu)

BAU (References)

District Heating Alternatives

Results (PES, CO2, Costs)

50% of the heat demand in Europe can be supplied with

district heating(www.HeatRoadmap.eu)

KEY ROLE

FOR CIT IES

Proven Technology!Renewable Energy vs. District Heating

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Ren

ewab

le E

ner

gy S

har

e in

Hea

tin

g &

C

oo

ling

(%)

District Heating Share (%)

Austria BelgiumBulgaria CroatiaCyprus Czech RepublicDenmark EstoniaFinland FranceGermany GreeceHungary IrelandItaly LatviaLithuania LuxembourgMalta NetherlandsPoland PortugalRomania Slovak RepublicSlovenia SpainSweden United Kingdom

Today’s Heat Demand from Peta 4.2 (www.heatroadmap.eu)

London

<5% DH

Copenhagen

>90% DH

Roma

<5% DH

Bucharest

~75% DH

Heat Demand Densities 2015

Case Study: Middlesbrough, UK (350,000 People)

Heat Demand Suitable for DH

10 PJ/Year

Excess Heat35 PJ/Year

WP2: Pan-European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu

10 km

Heat synergies map in PETA4 example: Netherlands

• Heat demands: 296 PJ/y

• Excess heat: 560 PJ/y

• District heating share: 5%

• Renewable energy in heating: 3%

- Not a Technical barrier to improve energy efficiency

Today’s Energy System

Mobility

Electricity

Cooling

Heating

Fossil Fuel Power Plants

Power Exchange

Resources Conversion Demands

Fuel Storage

Combustion Engines

Electricity Storage

Boilers

Sm

art

Energ

y S

yste

m

Mobility

Flexible Electricity

Cooling

Heating

Solar etc.

Bioenergy Fuels

Combined Heat & Power

Power Exchange

Resources Conversion Demands

Heat Pump

Fluctuating Heat

Fluctuating Electricity

Thermal

Storage

Wind etc.

Fuel Storage

Electric Vehicles

Electrofuels

Combustion Engines

Electricity Storage

Sm

art

Energ

y S

yste

m:

Therm

al S

tora

ge

Mobility

(Partly) Flexible

Electricity

Cooling

Heating

Solar etc.

Bioenergy Fuels

Combined Heat & Power

Power Exchange

Resources Conversion Demands

Heat Pump

Fluctuating Heat

Fluctuating Electricity

Thermal

Storage

Wind etc.

Fuel Storage

Electric Vehicles

Electrofuels

Combustion Engines

Electricity Storage

Sm

art

En

erg

y S

yste

m:

Batt

ery

/Mo

bili

ty S

tora

ge

Mobility

(Partly) Flexible

Electricity

Cooling

Heating

Solar etc.

Bioenergy Fuels

Combined Heat & Power

Power Exchange

Resources Conversion Demands

Heat Pump

Fluctuating Heat

Fluctuating Electricity

Thermal

Storage

Wind etc.

Fuel Storage

Electric Vehicles

Electrofuels

Combustion Engines

Electricity Storage

Sm

art

Ene

rgy S

yste

m:

Fue

l S

tora

ge

Mobility

(Partly) Flexible

Electricity

Cooling

Heating

Solar etc.

Bioenergy Fuels

Combined Heat & Power

Power Exchange

Resources Conversion Demands

Heat Pump

Fluctuating Heat

Fluctuating Electricity

Thermal

Storage

Wind etc.

Fuel Storage

Electric Vehicles

Electrofuels

Combustion Engines

Electricity Storage

We need two-dimensional approach - technically and in regards to markets

W W W . E N E R G Y P L A N . E U

W W W . H E A T R O A D M A P . E U

W W W . S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S . E U

W W W . 4 D H . D K

W W W . R E I N V E S T P R O J E C T . E U

State of GreenState of Green