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Small hydro from idea to operation
Scotland’s Changing Hydro Resource – 2008 to 2012 and Beyond
Nick Forrest
Small hydro from idea to operation
Topics
Recent history of hydro National resource – what is it now? What the sites look like How fast will hydro grow? What are the critical factors?
Small hydro from idea to operation
Cumulative Installed Hydro
Small hydro from idea to operation
Developers
Uncertain markets Money looking for investments Many new developers Land grab How much is left?
Small hydro from idea to operation
SNH and SEPA
Increasing number of applicants
Cumulative effects
Small hydro from idea to operation
Scottish Government
Pollution & climate change Energy security Rural income
Small hydro from idea to operation
National Surveys
Small hydro from idea to operation
Hydrobot
Remote hydro prediction, including: Flow duration statistics Layout and equipment optimisation Grid connection Costs and revenues NPV indicating best option Applicable across regions
Small hydro from idea to operation
1020
30
50
40
T1T2
Small hydro from idea to operation
Scottish Hydropower
Resource Study
657MW of untapped potential
>1,000 schemes, 20kW to 20MW
Small hydro from idea to operation
Employment Study The Employment Potential of
Scotland’s Hydro Resource Refined costings Included micro hydro (<100kW) Feed-In Tariffs (FITs)
Small hydro from idea to operation
Revised Resource
1.2 GW potential, 7,000 schemes 169 MW across 4,400 micro-hydro sites
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Po
ten
tial p
ow
er (
MW
)
Nu
mb
er o
f po
ten
tial s
che
me
s
Power band
Number
Potential power (MW)
Small hydro from idea to operation
SNH Study
New Feed-In Tariffs Simple payback of 10 years or less Variable design flow (1 to 1.3) Survey and mitigation costs Full set of CAR licenses entered 706MW across 6,312 schemes
Small hydro from idea to operation
babyHydro 2012
(I’m talking about this one) FITs as of December 2012 997MW across 9,152 schemes
Small hydro from idea to operation
Small hydro from idea to operation
Technical Screening
1:50,000 maps Maps of distribution grid River status Existing schemes
Small hydro from idea to operation
Technical Screening
Code DescriptionT1 Forestry CommissionT2 Access or gorgeT3 Other obstacleT4 Grid issues
T5Interferes with existing scheme
T6 ErrorT7 Low gradientT8 Good
Small hydro from idea to operation
Screened Resource
Total resource = 997MW 33% good = 329MW 165MW on Forestry Commission land 33% good = 55MW Total without barriers = 384MW
Small hydro from idea to operation
Two Waves?20
00
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
1,400.00
1,450.00
1,500.00
1,550.00
1,600.00
1,650.00
1,700.00
1,750.00
1,800.00
Cumulative Installed Capacity
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
)
Small hydro from idea to operation
But How Fast? Do We Care?
Market size Targets Replacing other sources in time Incentives to stimulate market Degression
Small hydro from idea to operation
Straight-Line Trends
Rate of commissioning Rate of consenting
Small hydro from idea to operation
Cumulative Installed Hydro
Small hydro from idea to operation
Excluding Fasnakyle & Glendoe
Small hydro from idea to operation
Commissioning and Consenting Trends
Small hydro from idea to operation
Commissioning and Consenting Trends
Small hydro from idea to operation
Employment Study
Human resources for hydro Realistic growth – Normal curve Growth in workforce defines upper limit in
hydro deployment
Small hydro from idea to operation
Employment Study
Graph by Jamie Wallace, Highland Eco-Design
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fu
ll-t
ime
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
Jo
bs
Global
UK
Scotland-wide (Baseline)
Scotland-wide (10%)
Scotland-wide (12%)
Local
Small hydro from idea to operation
Cumulative Normal Curves
Small hydro from idea to operation
Cumulative Normal Curves
Small hydro from idea to operation
Cumulative Normal Curves
Small hydro from idea to operation
Cumulative Normal Curves
Small hydro from idea to operation
Degression
10%
20%
5%
2.5%
Small hydro from idea to operation
Influences
Sites Grid Revenue support Funding Rents Environment
Small hydro from idea to operation
Conclusion
997MW total capacity, mostly in 100-500kW band
384MW has no known barrier We predict around 112MW deployment
between now and 2020 5% degression probably for >10 years 10% degression likely on occasion
Small hydro from idea to operation
Influences
Sites Grid Revenue support Funding Rents Environment
