Small Cells Coming To A Lightpost Near You

7/31/2019 Small Cells Coming To A Lightpost Near You

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Table of Contents

Overview: Small Cells Possibly Coming Soon to a Lightpost Near You ........................................................................ 3Mind the Gap Innovation Required ............................................................................................................................... 4

Network Evolution1G/2G/3G; 4G approaches Shannons Law Limits ........................................................................ 5Small Cells: From Macro to Pico to Femto ...................................................................................................................... 6Market Forecasts: Femto Cells => Pico Cells .............................................................................................................. 10Key Technical & Business Challenges of Small Cells ................................................................................................... 11Small Cells: An Emerging Ecosystem ........................................................................................................................... 12

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Youve been talking about small cells for the past couple of years[]Can you let us know if you think this will be theyear of the small cells in the form of either carrier WiFi or picocells? (Mark McKechnie)

[] on the small cells stuff, I mean thats obviously started now with people starting to deploy some of those cells. The

issue with the current deployment is that you have interference created between femtocells and the macrocells when yourun them on the same frequency. So what weve developed is a lot of self-organizing networks and interferencemanagement technologies that weve put into some of the products that have launched.But in terms of when its going toreally be a mainstream thing, we do see some operators taking that approach that they are going with a lot of small cellsand I dont think its going to be mainstream for a few years yet. []We really are talking about a pretty radical rethinkingabout the way the networks are going to be built out. [] So we think that eventually small cells will be kind of the cost ofa phone, maybe even cheaper than a phone, that you'll see densification to the standpoint that it's almost maybe 1:1 smallcells and phones.

(Paul Jacobs, Qualcomm CEO)

- GSMA Mobile World Congress, 2/27/12

Exhibit 1: Small Cells Possibly Coming Soon to a Lightpost (or Windowsill) Near You

Source: Alcatel-Lucent Metro Cells brochure, AT&T M-Cell website, Ubiquisys website

Overview: Small Cells Coming Soon to a Lightpost Near You Believe demand for data likely to accelerate with LTE. With the introduction of new 4G LTE services and an

increased proliferation of smart phones and tablets, we expect the demand for data to continue to outstrip theability of networks to support them. Indeed, early reports from users of the new 4G/LTE iPad indicate users arealready hitting their 5GB monthly cap within two weeks of use. We have coined the potato chip law ofbandwidth which states simply that better connections and services beget increased demand for data. Thus, 4Gdeployment will likely exacerbate the data problem rather than fix it as hoped. We view the monthly cap as akinto selling a Ferrari with a one-gallon gas tank.

Small cells: the evolutionary migration to support broadband mobile data. Just as we saw a migration of cellcoverage from highways to golf courses as 1G car phones moved to 2G flip phones, we expect the density of

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base stations to intensify as we move to 4G smart phones. There is really no other way to offer capacity absentthe small cell, either through cellular (3G/4G), carrier-WiFi, or more likely a combination of both, in our view.

Exhibit 2: Mixed Mode Small Cell Network Example

Source: Ruckus Small Cell white paper

Mind the Gap Innovation RequiredAt stake is the challenge to support the 1000x (in the words of QCOM CEO Paul Jacobs) growth in anticipated trafficover mobile broadband networks by 2020. Our thesis on the industry is simple: more of the same (i.e. increasedspending on current network architectures) simply will not work to close the gap between bandwidth demand and networkcapacity (see Exhibit 3).

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Exhibit 3: Bridging the Gap Between Traffic Growth and Network Capacity

Source: ThinkEquity LLC estimates

We see four options to fill the gap:1) open more spectrum to carriers to add more channels to current cells;2) upgrade from 3G to 4G to improve bandwidth per available spectrum;3) small cells in the form of 3G/4G picocells and/or carrier WiFi; or4) adaptive traffic management in the form of deep packet inspection or video processing.

Alternatively, policy management or metered pricing could also be used to reduce the demand.

Adaptive Traffic Management. While this is a subject for another separate piece, there are companies whichoffer a new approach to managing the IP traffic intelligently.This includes DPI (Deep Packet Inspection) from thelikes of Allot Communications, Sandvine, and Procera. Adaptive Traffic Management companies includeBytemobile, Ortiva Wireless, Vantrix and Media Excel which intelligently adapt video and other content to theavailable network bandwidth and thus conserve scarce traffic capacity, orMovik Networks, which enables carriersto smartly direct RAN traffic across3G/4G and WiFi networks. Stay tuned for more on this segment.

Network Evolution 1G/2G/3G; 4G approaches Shannons Law Limits Running into the theoretical limits of Shannons Law. Our ability to transform information phone calls,

music, video, virtually everything into digital bits of data and to transmit billions of them per second is foundedupon the work of Bell Labs and MIT mathematician, Claude Shannon, who developed Shannons Law inconjunction with his work. Shannons Law deals with the concept of channel capacity and describes the maximumrate at which information can be transmitted over a communications channel of a specific bandwidth in thepresence of noise. In essence, it dictates the amount of data compression allowable over a specific bandwidthand provides a template for the high density data networks. As 4G approaches the theoretical Shannons Lawlimit of 6 bits/second per Hz, the industry needs to resort to increased spatial diversity in the form of small cells, inour view.

E E

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Cellular architecture to the nth

degree. With spectrum and site acquisition the scarce resources for offeringcellular coverage, the key innovation in the 1980s and 1990s was spectrum reuse in which a carrier uses thesame spectrum over and over across its network of base stations or cells. The first mobile phone network, IMTS,consisted of a huge antenna in the Chicago area which offered 20 miles of mobile phone coverage with just one

base station. This of course was analog and could initially only support approximately 25 simultaneous calls. Toadd more capacity,the concept of a cell was born in which the carrier reused the same scarce spectrum overmany cells, each of which could support the same 25 users, thus 10 cells could support 250 users.2G, 3G and4G all added to the efficiency of the networks by squeezing more bits out of the scarce spectrum, which ismeasured in Hertz (Hz).

Exhibit 4: Wireless Technological Evolution, 1983-2028E

Source: Qualcomm reports and estimates

Small Cells: From Macro to Pico to FemtoCellular coverage (otherwise known as the Radio Access Network or RAN) has traditionally consisted of big-iron MacroCells, produced by the incumbent equipment players such as ERIC, NSN, ALU and Huawei. The network deploymentsinvolve deployment of large macro cells which support roughly 100 users simultaneously over an 1 to 10 km coverageradius and typically involve anywhere from 20W to 50W transmitters. We expect the network to evolve to a wide range ofproducts of all shapes and sizes from femto cells for indoor coverage, to pico cells for outdoor network coverage indense urban areas:

macro cells outdoor carrier cells; picocells outdoor cells in the carrier network which support 10-30 users over a less than 200m radius with a 1W

to 20W power range; or femtocells generally for homes or small businesses and support 2-10 users in a 20W to 50W power range.

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Exhibit 5: Usage of Small Cells in the Mobile Network

Source: Small Cell Forum

Exhibit 6: Geographic Footprint Macro, Pico, Small, Femtocells

Source: ThinkEquity LLC

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Exhibit 7: Examples of Macro, Small and Femtocells

ERIC RBS6000 macro cell Ruckus WiFi + LTE small cell ip.access femtocell

Source: Ericsson Source: Ruckus Source: AT&T Wireless

Carrier WiFi vs. 3G/4G. The two competing small cell solutions include 1) carrier WiFi and 2) 3G/4G small cells. We alsobelieve mixed-mode small cells will become the norm, as a carrier who secures the real estate and backhaul for a smallcell will want to offer 3G/4G for voice and Carrier WiFi for data. Carrier WiFi makes a lot of sense as it uses unlicensedspectrum, handsets all generally support WiFi, and WiFi silicon costs have come down to hit the sweet spot, in our view.Additionally, the new HotSpot 2.0 standard offers automatic authentication for smart phone users tied to their SIMaccount at a carrier. Thus as an AT&T wireless subscriber, the carrier can automatically connect or offload a user to WiFiwhen an AT&T WiFi cell is available.

Exhibit 8:BelAir Networks Carrier WiFi Example

Source: BelAir Networks white paper

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Exhibit 9: Range of Products and Players in the Macro/Small Cell IndustryCell Architecture

Geographic

Coverage # of Users Output Power

Switch/Router

Providers

Broadband Chip

Suppliers RF Suppliers

Macro 1-10km ~100 500mW ALU TXN MXIM

ERIC FSL LLTC

NSN BRCM ADI

Huawei (private) PWAV

custom-designed

Pico < 200m 10-30 1-20W BelAir Networks (ERIC) MSPD SWKS

BRCM RFMD

Scintera Network

(private)

Femto ~10m 2-10 20-50W ip.access (private) Picochip (MSPD)

Nextivity (private) BRCM (Percello)

Ubiquisys (private)

Source: Company reports and ThinkEquity LLC

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Market Forecasts: Femto Cells => Pico Cells Assessing the Ramp Divergent Views: From QCOM to ERIC. We generally see the market for small cells as

2012 being a year of continued femtocell deployments with 3G/4G trials and aggressive carrier WiFi RFPs; with2013 and beyond marking the ramp of picocells into carrier networks. Most bullish is QCOM, who two years ago

pointed out that 4Gs modulation schemes would approach the theoretical limits of Shannons Law and that spatialdiversity or small cells would be required to fill the gap between accelerating traffic growth and the ability tosupport this with current network architectures. In response to our question at MWC, QCOM indicated that iteventually expected small cells to approach the cost of a phone and almost maybe 1:1 small cells andphonepretty radical rethinking, in our view.

Informa forecasts 60M+ small cells by 2016. Informas February 2012 report anticipates total small cell unitshipments rising from 3.2M this year to 62.4M in 2016 with 95% of them still being the small femtocells. The reportfinds that small cell deployments are set to be dominated by femtocells with the installed base to grow from 2.5Min 2012 to 59M in 2016.

Exhibit 10: Femtocell Access Point Forecast

Source: Informa data and estimates

Mobile Experts weighs in with precision. A 2011 Mobile Experts study revealed the following projections: sales

of about $1.5B worth of small cell gear for wireless backhaul in 2016; enterprise and public area picocells are setto grow from 140K in 2012 to 540K in 2016, a 4x increase; and public access small cells which are mostlyinstalled outdoors and encompass microcells and metrocells are set to grow from 595K in 2012 to 2.9M in 201(+480%). In addition, the study noted that between 2012 and 2015, public access small cells should evolve fromtraditional designs to next generation models. The study also indicated that in 2011, femtocells deploymentsnumbered 21; there are three thus far into 2012. Additionally, we highlight increased adoption rates amongstservice providers with deployments growing to 39 total providers in 23 different countries during 1Q12, with eightof the 10 largest mobile operators now offering femtocell services.

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Motivations for small cell deployment. A December 2011 report from Infonetics highlights the catalysts forsmall cell deployments in the enterprise. As we anticipated, optimization of an existing local deployment highlightsthe leading driver amongst respondents. The survey indicated that operators are expecting to double thepercentage of small cell station units from 6% in 2011 to 12% in 2012.

Exhbit 11: Leading Small Cell Deployment Drivers

Source: Infonetics

AT&T actively deploying femtocells. Recently, at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, AT&T announcedthe intention to test small cells within its network later this year along with the announcement that it presentlycounts several hundred thousand Cisco femtocells in its existing network. AT&T began offering C isco femtocellsin April 2010. The device acts as a miniature base station, allowing users to tie AT&T service to their homeinternet connection

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Exhibit 12: Femtocell Deployments and Commitments Number of Carriers, 3Q10-1Q12

Source: Informa

Key Technical & Business Challenges of Small Cells Integration with Macro Cells --- SONs (self-organizing networks). The biggest technical challenge for 3G/4G

small cells is seamless integration with the macro networks plumbing. At issue is both the hand outs in which alive call is handed off from a small cell to the macro network, and hand -ins in which a live call is handed off from

the macro cell to a small cell. We see a range of attempts to solve the challenges, with some vendors offeringtheir own small cell controllers which connect back to the macro networks BSC (base station controller), whileothers rely on support from ALU, ERIC and NSN to manage the handoffs. We are also seeing a lot of work inself-organizing network, or SON technologies, in which the network becomes aware of the small celldeployment and then self organizes its power levels across the cells to maximize the capacity of the full systemover a fixed amount of spectrum.

Site Acquisition. This represents the major business challenge of small cells namely carriers need to acquirethe small cell sites at a ground level in-order to deploy the small cells which can be placed on street poles, withinoffices, or even on billboards in densely populated regions. In conjunction, small cell box makers need to offerunobtrusive (read: small) form factors to allow for unobtrusive deployments that do not create eye-sores.

Backhaul. The final ramp limiter of small cells is the backhaul challenge i.e. routing the signals from a small cell

back to the network.This is no small task. Our industry checks suggest ~ 15Gbps of bandwidth from all three ofthe French 3G operators supporting ~60M total subscribers. These same carriers saw a spike to 60-70Gbpswithin months of deploying their carrier WiFi solution. The cells can be connected via the existingbroadband/Ethernet connection (DSL, Cable Modem), fiber or more likely millimeter wave / point to point backhaulover the licensed (i.e. 24-80GHz) or unlicensed (i.e. WiFi bands). Again, the connection and associated antennawould need to be small and unobtrusive. Then, of course, the bandwidth needs to be managed over the system todeliver low-latency service to the subscriber.

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As shown below, Infonetics qualitative analysis into service provider obstacles associated with deployment of femto/smallcells indicates the transition from a macro-centric environment to next-generation solutions remains the key technicalchallenge in the deployment of small cells.

Exhibit 13: Top Barriers to Femtocell and Small Cell Adoption

Source: Infonetics

Small Cells: An Emerging EcosystemOur industry study has revealed a burgeoning ecosystem of players ranging from the incumbent telecom equipmentplayers, to emerging small cell systems players, backhaul innovators, tower companies, and chip/technology players.

We see an ongoing struggle between the incumbent macro cell ecosystem with diverging views on the small celldisruption, and the emerging challengers who are leading the innovation curve and threaten to shake up the overallindustry structure.

Thus, the bigger players are looking to move downstream into the growth-oriented small cell market, while the emergingplayers are innovating in with fresh approaches to a new market opportunity. If history serves us well, we have a feelingthe faster-running emerging companies will ultimately win the innovation race and ultimately grow into big companiesthemselves, or get taken out as their products take hold in carrier networks.

As an example, the "about face within Ericsson which fought the carrier WiFi trend for years before capitulating with itsrecent BelAir Networks purchase for its positioning as a carrier WiFi leader may serve as a good example of an innovatorcreating value.

Cisco, at the other end of the spectrum, has tried for years to break into the radio access network recently shook up theindustry with its small cell product line announcement at Mobile World Congress.

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Exhibit 14: The Small Cell Ecosystem

Source: Informa

Weve seen this act before, and have an inkling that the smaller players may be the ones to watch. Below, we lay out ourview of the small cell ecosystem:

Primary Participants ALU, ERIC, NSN, Huawei. The macro base station vendors have long spoken of theHetNet, or Heterogeneous Network, in which a spectrum of radios / base stations ranging from 3G/4G, carrierWiFi and pico/femtocells will be used to effectively provide coverage and capacity across the geographictopologies. ALUs lightRadio architecture uses the cube as a key RF building block in pico to macro cells withvarious configurations depending on the deployment requirements. All appear heavily invested to become thesystem integrator of choice to the global carrier community. ERICs recent acquisition of carrier WiFi playBelAir Networks illustrates the urgency of new thinking in network roll-outs. CSCOs MWC announcement of smallcell product lines reinforces the theme.

Emerging Systems Makers. The entrepreneurial efforts are alive and well in small cells with a range of playersoffering differing approaches are emerging. Ruckus Wireless, a Silicon Valley-based leader in enterprise WiFisystems, is moving aggressively into the small cell space in both carrier WiFi and mixed mode solutions whichadd 3G/4G. The companys core competence involves the ability to scale across large user bases by way of itssmart antenna technology and controller architecture. Tests done by Toms Hardware illustrate the advantages ofRuckus system which we have confirmed from various industry sources.ip.access, a UK-based small cell player,has emerged as a leader in 3G femtocells by supporting one of the larger global deployments with AT&T Wirelessand its home femtocells that offer cellular coverage to customers with poor signals near their homes. The

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companys solution includes a wide range of femto and picocel ls along with a proprietary controller to connectback to the macro network. Ubiquisys, also UK-based, is another emerging leader with a twist. Ubiquisysannounced its smart cell line up at MWC which together with INTC silicon offers a unique solution that offerslocal caching with ~40G of on-board flash to ease the backhaul burden by caching regularly used content (i.e.

video) for a local area. Each of these companies brings their own unique core competencies to the table includingfirst to market, unique system architecture where most offer their own controller hardware.

Backhaul Players. We focus primarily on the wireless backhaul players but also believe the classic fiber supplierswill feel the additional traffic demand from WiFi/3G small cells. Most of our industry contacts see a large enoughopportunity in the standard $8B wireless backhaul space with s mall cell backhaul as gravy. There appear to besome disruptive solutions from newer companies such as Exalt Communications, which may be gaining shareby starting with a clean sheet to design Ethernet -based solutions and BridgeWave which is aggressivelytargeting the 80GHz market.

Tower Companies/WISPs (wireless internet service providers). Towerstream (TWER) is getting involved bysecuring real-estate rights in densely-populated metro regions in NYC, Chicago and SF which it plans to lease orresell to the larger carriers including Verizon and AT&T to augment their carrier WiFi footprint . iPass (IPAS) isfocused on playing the middle man to support global roaming of WiFi users. Devicescape provides WiFi offloadcapacity through its virtual network of third-party WiFi hotspots based on a given operators policy preferences.

Chip Makers. We see a classic David vs. Goliath dynamic brewing amongst the chip makers for their fair share ofthe overall BTS (base transceiver station) silicon space. There is a battle staged between the incumbent macrocell vendors such as FSL and TXN trying to move down to the pico/femtocell space, and the small cellchallengers starting with a beachhead in femto cells and trying to move up to pico cells , but they may not evermake it up to the macro cell. We estimate ~$1,000 of content for the macro cells, which could be higherdepending on the number of users supported and power levels and ~$25-$50 for the small cell players. Small cellparticipants include MSPD, BRCM, and QCOM.

MSPD recently bought small cell leader PicoChip to provide near-term 3G femtocell business ahead of its 4GTranscede ramp. Top customers include ALU which showed off a lightRadio cube-based solution with MSPDsbaseband at MWC, ip.access, which resells products through CSCO to AT&T and has 11 carrier relationships,along with some content in BelAirs (ERIC) dual-mode metro solution. We note that ip.access has begun workingwith FSL for their 4G solution in the 2013 solution, but believe MSPDs 3G business has growth ahead and maybe able to capture follow-on 4G content.

BRCM may have bought Percello for $86M in November 2010 as its play on small cell but also appears to havegood internal WiFi capabilities and may be a contender with recent wins at Ubiquisys. QCOM is making a strongpush with its FSM small cell solution that gets them back into the infrastructure market and who we believe maybe designed into CSCOs new product line. INTC is showing up with a focus to support smart cell solutions fromUbiquisys and may move into basebands with its CEVA-based Infineon division.

On the RF/Transceiver side, MXIM and ADI appear positioned with analog transceivers; MXIMs recentinvestment in private company Scintera which makes analog pre-distortion products may prove important in

achieving price points and scale necessary for broad market deployments of small cells. There also appears to beinterest from the traditional RF food chain including RFMD and SWKS in the emerging small cell space as well asprivately-held CMOS Power Amplifier companies such as BlackSand, Amalfi, and RF Access.

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Investment Risks. Small Cells represent an emerging technology which we believe may prove disruptive to the overallindustry. We see numerous risks orramp limiters which may prevent, slow, or otherwise impact the deployment of smallcells relative to our views. Key risks for the industry include 1) carrier capex budgets, 2) technical / integration risks ofsmall cells into the macro network, 3) macro cell advances could accelerate to diminish the relative benefit of small cells,

and 4) small cells require real estate site acquisition and backhaul solutions.

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COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT:

Company Exchange Symbol Price Rating

Allot Communications Ltd NASDAQ ALLT $22.50 Buy

CEVA, Inc. NASDAQ CEVA $22.22 Buy

Intel Corporation NASDAQ INTC $27.93 BuyMindspeed Technologies, Inc. NASDAQ MSPD $5.75 Buy

Motorola Mobility Holdings, Inc. NYSE MMI $38.96 Hold

Nokia Corporation NYSE NOK $5.07 Hold

QUALCOMM Inc. NASDAQ QCOM $67.39 Buy

RF Micro Devices NASDAQ RFMD $4.58 Hold

Skyworks Solutions, Inc. NASDAQ SWKS $26.38 Buy

Important Research Disclosures

Analyst CertificationWe, Mark McKechnie and Ryan Brookman, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personviews about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly relatto the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this report has/have received compensation based on various factors, including the firm's totrevenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. The analyst(s) also receive compensation in the form ofpercentage of commissions from trades made through the firm in the securities of the subject company of this report, although not for ainvestment banking transactions with or involving the subject company.

ThinkEquity LLC makes a market in Allot Communications Ltd, CEVA, Inc., Intel Corporation, Mindspeed Technologies, Inc., NokiaCorporation, QUALCOMM Inc., RF Micro Devices and Skyworks Solutions, Inc. securities; and/or associated persons may sell to or buyfrom customers on a principal basis.

ThinkEquity LLC has made affirmative disclosures concerning each of the covered securities mentioned in this report, including analystholdings (if any), rating definitions and overall ratings distributions. These disclosures can be found in the most recent complete researchreport for each of the respective companies. Reports are available upon request.

Rating Definitions

Effective October 7, 2009, ThinkEquity LLC moved from a four-tier Buy/Accumulate/Source of Funds/Sell rating system to a three-tier BuHold/Sell system. The new ratings appear in our Distribution of Ratings, Firmwide chart. To request historical information, including previoupublished reports or statistical information, please call: 866-288-8206, or write to: Director of Research, ThinkEquity LLC, 600 MontgomeStreet, San Francisco, California, 94111.

Buy: ThinkEquity expects the stock to generate positive risk-adjusted returns of more than 10% over the next 12 months. ThinkEqurecommends initiating or increasing exposure to the stock.

Hold: ThinkEquity expects the stock to generate risk-adjusted returns of +/-10% over the next 12 months. ThinkEquity believes the stois fairly valued.

Sell: ThinkEquity expects the stock to generate negative risk-adjusted returns of more than 10% during the next 12 months. ThinkEqurecommends decreasing exposure to the stock.

Distribution of Ratings, Firmwide

ThinkEquity LLC

IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.

Rating Count Percent Count Percent

BUY [B] 133 67.51 12 9.02

HOLD [H] 53 26.90 1 1.89

SELL [S] 11 5.58 0 0.00

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The information provided, while not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliabThe opinions expressed reflect our judgment at this time and are subject to change without notice and may or may not be updated. Paperformance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implieis made regarding future performance. This notice shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there any sale of these securities in any state in which said offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification undthe securities laws of any such state. This research repor t was originally prepared and distributed to institutional clients of ThinkEquity LLRecipients who are not market professionals or institutional clients of ThinkEquity LLC should seek the advice of their personal financadvisors before making any investment decisions based on this report. Additional information on the securities referenced is available uprequest. In the event that this is a compendium report (covers more than six ThinkEquity LLC-covered subject companies), ThinkEquity Lmay choose to provide specific disclosures for the subject companies by reference. To request more information regarding these disclosureplease call: 866-288-8206, or write to: Director of Research, ThinkEquity LLC, 600 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, California, 9411Stocks mentioned in this report are not covered by ThinkEquity LLC unless otherwise mentioned. Member of FINRA and SIPC. Copyrig2012 ThinkEquity LLC, A Panmure Gordon Company

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Small Cells Coming To A Lightpost Near You