Sjoerd Schenau

Developing new statistics for climate change analysis

Content

• Organisational setting Climate change statistics in the Netherlands

• New statistics for climate change Footprint analysis

• Conclusions

2

Organisational setting

3

Environmental

Statistics

SEEA System of

Environmental-Economic Accounting

Emission Register

(70 experts from 10 institutes,

including Statistics Netherlands)

Statistics Netherlands (CBS)

shari

ng

mic

rodata

sharin

g

micro

data

Dissemination

Official statistics at www.cbs.nl

Emission data at www.prtr.nl

Policy indicators at Environmental Data Compendium, e.g., www.compendiumvoordeleefomgeving.nl/indicatoren/en0165-Greenhouse-gas-emissions.html?i=41-205

New statistics for climate change

• Quarterly CO2 emissions

• CO2 emission permits• Mitigation expenditure• Carbon footprint

4

New statistics for climate change

• Quarterly CO2 emissions

• CO2 emission permits• Mitigation expenditure• Carbon footprint

5

Changes in CO2 emissions, second quarter of 2015

Source data:• Monthly energy data• National accounts

data• Other

New statistics for climate change

• Quarterly CO2 emissions

• CO2 emission permits• Mitigation expenditure• Carbon footprint

6

20052006200720082009201020110

20

40

60

80

100

Allocated CO2 allowancesExcess CO2 allowancesShortfall CO2 allowances

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2008 2009 2010 2011---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 Opening stock 1 January 86.087.847 87.856.973 100.974.058 111.941.342 2 Allocated free of charge (grandfathered) 76.801.532 83.703.076 84.974.375 88.831.673

3 Purchased - permits (allowances) 168.951.989 191.515.413 170.119.571 161.845.444

Of which free permits 2) 117.438.701 119.167.730 113.375.936 113.861.496

Of which non-free permits 3) 4.000.000 -

Of which from ROW 4) 51.513.288 72.347.683 52.743.635 47.983.948

4 Purchased - credits 58.791.531 50.333.828 48.028.922 79.229.517

Of which purchased 30.841.275 25.789.984 25.822.587 43.313.696

Of which from domestic projects - - - -

Of which from ROW 27.950.256 24.543.844 22.206.335 35.915.821

5 Sold - permits (allowances) 180.136.186 178.637.082 173.362.339 156.197.411

Of which free and non-free permits 5)127.074.283 108.276.031 113.609.251 108.641.695

Of which to ROW 4) 53.061.903 70.361.051 59.753.088 47.555.716

6 Sold - credits 31.525.560 46.462.897 40.534.779 49.640.885

Of which to other residents 16.539.418 23.754.984 22.524.463 27.528.136

Of which to ROW 14.986.142 22.707.913 18.010.316 22.112.749

7 Losses (cancelled permits) 6) - 20 - 63.633

8 Surrendered, permits, credits, etc. 79.698.681 83.512.670 81.071.420 84.616.050

9 Closing stock 87.856.973 100.974.058 111.941.822 137.098.673 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mton CO2

Emission permit database Dutch emission authority

http://www.emissieautoriteit.nl/

New statistics for climate change

• Quarterly CO2 emissions

• CO2 emission permits• Mitigation expenditure• Carbon footprint

720

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

140.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Mitigation expenditure government, percentage of GDP

• Government reports• Government

statistics• Environmental

expenditure accounts

More info:http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/themas/natuur-milieu/publicaties/milieurekeningen/publicaties/archief/2012/environmental-accounts-2011-pub.htm

New statistics for climate change

• Quarterly CO2 emissions

• CO2 emission permits• Mitigation expenditure• Carbon footprint

8

Consumption and production based CO2 emissions, 2009

More info:http://www.cbs.nl/nl-NL/menu/themas/natuur-milieu/publicaties/milieurekeningen/publicaties/archief/2013/2012-environmental-accounts-of-the-netherlands-2011-pub.htm

Footprint analysis

• Footprints are increasingly based on IO/SEEA combinations• Variety of Multi-regional input-output models (MRIO)• Footprint estimates vary significantly

Question:What role should NSI’s play in footprint analysis?

Answer?Single-country National Accounts Consistent (SNAC)footprint

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Statistical community

• Many different NSI’s and international organisations active in footprint calculations

• There is wide range of methods being usedNSIs often use simpler models

• Mostly carbon footprint• Clear interest in additional breakdowns

Household characteristics such as income• Dissemination practices of the institutes show that the

results are not always presented as “official statistics”

10

Overview of MRIO databases that are currently publically available

  GTAP EXIOBASE WIOD EoraAcronym Global Trade

Analysis Project 

EXIOPOL: Externality data and input-output tools for policy analysis 

World Input-Output Database

-

Institute Purdue University EXIOBASE: FP6 project (EXIOPOL) led by FEEM Database created by NTNU, TNO, SERI, CML

FP7 project lead by the University of Groningen

University of Sydney

Years 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2001, 2004, 2007 (years are not comparable)

2000 1995-2011 1990-2009

Prices of previous year

- - 1995-2009 -

Countries/Regions

15-129 (depends on year)

43(27 EU, 16 non-EU)(95% of the global GDP)

40(27 EU and 12 non-EU)(80% of world GDP in 2006)

187 

Number of industries

57 industries 130 industries 35 industries 100-500 industries

Environmental data

Greenhouse gases (CO2, NO2, CH4)Energy useLand use (split agro-ecological zone) 

Emissions (56)Materials (96)Land use (15)Water use (14)

Energy use / several energy carriersWater consumptionLand useEmissions of greenhouse gasesAir pollutantsResource use/extractionGeneration and treatment of various types of waste

Greenhouse gasesAir pollutionWater useEcological Footprint 

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Academic work

– Difference between MRIOs:‐ Aggregation (industries and/or countries)‐ Construction method: IO based, SUT based, or trade

based‐ Assumptions RoW or ITMs‐ Emission data (modeled or not)

– Aim of MRIOs‐ Information about global developments‐ No claim to be 100% correct at national level‐ Focus on consistent method (rather than best country

data)12

Carbon footprints for the Netherlands from various MRIO databases

13

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

PNAS NCC ESSD EORA GRAM WIOD OECD

Mton CO2

Data provided by Glen Peters and Nori Yamano

Year on year change in the DutchCarbon footprint: WIOD and EORA

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Reconciling academic and statistical work

– Growing policy interest in footprints, but no clear answers– MRIOs have set the standard, but outside NSIs capabilities

• Labour intensive• Assumptions

– MRIOs vs. official statistics• Always inconsistent due to integration/balancing

required:• Trade asymmetries

– Can we reconcile statistical and academic work in area of footprint analysis?

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A SNAC footprint

– Produce a footprint, based on MRIO, that is consistent to official statistics of the Netherlands ‐ Single-country National Accounts consistent (SNAC)

– Main approach: “Adjust WIOD to be consistent to Dutch data”

– Why WIOD?‐ Transparancy‐ Time series availibility

– Gain insight why results could be so different

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SNAC-Method for the Netherlands

– Follow WIOD procedure, but - with impoved data

• Trade in goods: re exports microdata‐• Trade in services: Confidential data• Expand SUT from 35 to 72 industries (+official valuation

layers)• Official SEEA accounts

- …..and keeping the Dutch data fixed

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Results: SNAC vs. WIOD

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Overall difference in footprint: 4%Mainly due to lower foreign emissionsNL becomes net exporter of emissions

2009SNAC-footprint WIODMtCO2 MtCO2 %

Total Footprint 202 210 -4%

Domestic indirect emissions

80 71 11%

Domestic direct emissions

40 39 5%

Total Domestic 120 109 9%

Total Foreign 83 101-22%

Resident emissions 205

Carbon footprint per capita including various estimates for the Netherlands

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Source: CBS 2013

Import emissions allocated to country of origin, 2009

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Indirect carbon footprint (2009) allocated to consumption categories

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Conclusions

1. MRIOs are produced for global questions while a SNAC footprint is more relevant for national policy makers

2. SNAC makes a difference! (at least for the Netherlands)3. Need for IO and SEEA data4. Need for enhanced cooperation

‐ Between statistical offices ‐ Between MRIO producers ‐ Statistical and academic community

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