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Sistema de Alerta de Tsunamis del Caribe
Christa G. von Hillebrandt-AndradeDirectora e Investigadora
Red Sísmica de Puerto Rico, UPR, Mayagüez
Conferencia
“Las Fuerzas Armadas en apoyo a la atención de eventuales desastres: Tsunamis”
Sede de la Junta Interamericana de Defensa (Casa del Soldado)
Washington, D. C.
26 de Agosto de 2008
Agenda
– Elementos del Sistema de Alerta de Tsunamis• Determinación de la Amenaza y Riesgo• Vigilancia
– Sísmica– Nivel de Mar
• Comunicaciones• Educación, Preparación y Recuperación
Generation, Propagation, and Inundation Phases of Tsunamis
long wavelength
Tsunami INDONESIA, December 26, 2004, Mw 9.3
Since 1530, 95 Tsunamis Have been observed in the Caribbean
• Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis, A 500-Year History from 1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003 edition) and Tsunamis of the Eastern US, NGDC, 2002 Science of Tsunami Hazards, vol 20, #3, pg 120 and NGDC, 2006.
Fatalities Due to TsunamisDate Place Fatalities
1692 Jamaica 2000
1842 Haiti ~300+
1853 Venezuela 600-4000
1867 Virgin Islands 23
1882 Panama 75-100
1906 Jamaica 500
1918 Puerto Rico 140
1946 Dominican Republic(1) 1790
1946 Dominican Republic(2) 75
TOTAL 5503 to 8928
Tsunamis in the Caribbean
From NOAA National Geophysical Data Center
Principal Earthquake, Landslide and Tsunami Sources
Sou
rce:
U.
ten
Bri
nk,
US
GS
Major faults and structures in the Caribbean with the potential of generating large local and regiaonal tsunamis from earthquakes and submarine landslides.
Other Caribbean Tsunamigenic Sources, Also Mostly short-fused
• Subaerial and Submarine Landslides
• Subaerial Volcanoes- Soufriere Hills, Montserrat
• Submarine Volcanoes-Kick ‘em Jenny
• Tele-tsunami (e.g. “Lisbon” Nov. 1, 1755)
The risk from tsunamis has increased dramatically due to population growth, coastal infrastructure
development and tourism
US Virgin Islands, 1867
US Virgin Islands, today
During high season, there can be as many as 25,000 people arriving on cruise shipsduring a day. During low season, as much as 15,000 people/day.
Tsunami Inland Flood Limit for Mayagüez,PR
Tsunami Inundation Maps
• Information Required:– Tsunami sources,
eg. Faults– Digital elevation
models of near shore topo and bathymetry
– Inundation model-TIME, MOST
• Vulnerability Factors– Age– Sex– Race– Family/Marital Status– Special Needs– Education– Housing– Economic resources
Vulnerability
Monitoring Components of Tsunami Warning System
• Seismic monitoring-accurate and timely detection and determination and dissemination of hypocentral parameters. Initial performance criteria: messages for all earthquakes M 5 or greater within 5 minutes of origin time.
• Sea Level Monitoring– Tide Gauges-confirmation of tsunami heights and
arrival times at coastal locations, validate tsunami inundation models
– DART Buoys-confirmation of tsunamis and real time forecasting of tsunamis
• Other geophysical instrumentation, GPS, hydroacoustic sensor – developing technology and infrastructure.
Seismic Stations Available in Real Time for the CEWS
Conributing Networks• USGS Caribbean Seismic
Network• ANSS-USGS• Global Seismographic
Network• U. Colima, Mexico• RS El Salvador• INETER, Nicaragua• OVSICORI, Costa Rica• Baru Network, Panama• Seismic Research Unit,
Trinidad and Tobago• Montserrat Volcano
Observatory• Martinique Volcano
Observatory• KNMI, Dutch Antilles• Puerto Rico Seismic
Network, UPR• Seismological Institute,
DR
TsunamiReady Tide Gauges
• Efforts are underway to increase the number of sea level stations available in real time. PRSN hosted a workshop in June, 2008.
• http://www.ioc-unesco.org
DARTBuoys
Tsunamis Warning Centers• National
– Nicaragua
• Regional– US NOAA West Coast and
Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
– Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands
• International– US NOAA Pacific Tsunami
Warning Center
• Planned– Caribbean Tsunami Warning
Center
Earthquake Information
WCATWC
PRSN
Communications and Dissemination
• 24 hour capability to rapidly receive and disseminate emergency information messages
“80% of tsunami mortalities occur within the first hour after the source event” (exception: 1946 Aleutian tsunami)EOS-AGU, v.88, n. 52
Tsunami Education, Awareness and Drills
Preparation and Distribution of Evacuation Maps.
Installation and Maintenance (replacement) of Tsunami Warning Signs
Response and Recovery Planning
• Response Plans– Roles and
responsibilities– Communications– Drills
• Recovery Plans– Safety and security– Mass casualties– Civil Infrastructure
Intergovernmental Coordinating Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and
Adjacent Regions (ICG-C)
• UNESCO/IOC body• 30 member states,
commonwealths, territories
• Established in 2005• Sessions held in 2006,
2007 and 2008
Conclusions and Recommendations
• Further analysis of the hazard and risk is required– Near shore bathymetry and topo digital elevation
models
• Very important that the infrastructure and capabilities of the almost 30 local and subregional seismic networks continue to be strengthened and supported.
• Upgrade the sea level infrastructure in the region.
Cont.• Improve the capabilities for receiving and
disseminating information and warning messages
• The establishment of a Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center and Caribbean Tsunami Information Center in the region for most effective advisory service before, during and after an event and accessible capacity building platforms for the region.
• Improve education, preparedness and recovery plans
More information…• UNESCO/IOC/ICG Website • http://www.ioc-unesco.org/• NOAA Tsunami Website
– http://www.tsunami.gov• PRTWMP website with tsunami inundation maps
– http://poseidon.uprm.edu• PRSN
– http://redsismica.uprm.edu
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