SIP Development Process Overview

For Hickory Transportation Partners

Requirements, Scenarios and Timelines

Laura Boothe, NCDAQ

Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ

Eddie Dancausse, FHWA

February 8, 2005

Outline• Background on PM2.5 standard• General PM2.5 timeline• What’s a SIP?• Scenarios

– Redesignation/Maintenance SIP Requirementsvs.

– Attainment Demonstration SIP Requirements

Background

• Annual PM2.5 standard– If a monitored design value is > 15.0 µg/m3,

that monitor is violating the annual standard– The design value is defined as:

• Annual mean concentration, averaged over 3 years

Human Hair (70 µm diameter)

Hair cross section (70 m)

PM2.5

(2.5 µm)PM10

(10µm) M. Lipsett, California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment

A complex mixture of extremely small particles and liquid droplets

Particulate Matter: What is It?

Public Health Risks Are Significant

Particles are linked to:• Premature death from heart and lung disease• Aggravation of heart and lung diseases

– Hospital admissions – Doctor and ER visits – Medication use– School and work absences

• And possibly to– Lung cancer deaths– Infant mortality– Developmental problems in children, such as

low birth weight

Primary Particles(Directly Emitted)

Secondary Particles(From Precursor Gases)

Elemental Carbon

OtherCrustal Ammonium

Nitrate

NOx

AmmoniumSulfate

SO2

SecondaryOrganics

VOC

Ammonia

Crustal

June 2000 / tgp

Condensed Organics

North Carolina Areas Designated Nonattainment for PM2.5 (EPA 12/17/04)

Hickory PM2.5 Design Values

Monitor

Hickory

County

Catawba

01-03

15.5

PM2.5 Nonattainment Timeline

• Immediate (April 5, 2005)– New source review

• One year– Transportation conformity

• Three years– State Implementation Plan (SIP) –

attainment demonstration• Five years (or as expeditiously as practicable)

– Attain standard (Hickory & Triad)

PM2.5 Nonattainment TimelineDefinitions for Hickory Area

Effective date =

Transportation conformity date =

SIP submittal date =

Attainment date =

Data used to determine attainment =

(Modeling) Attainment year =

Redesignation base years =

Maintenance years =

April 5, 2005April 5, 2006April 5, 2008April 5, 2010*2007-20092009*2005 or 2006TBD

* Or as early as possible

State Implementation Plan (SIP)

• Need a “SIP submittal” to EPA within three years– Attainment Demonstration that details the State’s plan

to bring the area into attainment of the Federal standard

• Significant emission controls are already underway– Clean Smokestacks Act– Vehicle emissions testing– Ultra-Low sulfur fuels– Cleaner Engines

2 Scenarios are possible

• Redesignation/Maintenance SIP

• Attainment Demonstration SIP

Scenario Overviews

• Redesignation/Maintenance SIP– If area attains standard prior to attainment

demonstration submittal date (April 5, 2008)– Package containing emissions estimates for the year

the area came into attainment and maintenance years– Requires data for the year the area came into

attainment and maintenance years

• Attainment Demonstration SIP– Submittal 3 years after effective date (April 5, 2008)– Based on comprehensive modeling– Requires data for only the attainment year (2009)

Redesignation/Maintenance SIPProcess Overview

• Area attains standard (2005 or 2006)– Develop emissions inventory for the year area attains

standard– Develop maintenance emissions inventories for at

least 10 years beyond redesignation approval• Determined through Inter-Agency Consultation Process

– Develop interim/maintenance emissions inventories • 3 to 5 year increments

– Compare maintenance emissions to attaining year’s emissions

• Maintenance emissions must be lower than attaining year’s emissions… If not, control strategies must be developed

– Or use modeling

Redesignation/Maintenance SIPProcess Overview

• Develop draft SIP package– Emissions comparisons– Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets– Contingency measures

• Take draft SIP to public hearing– 30 day comment period

• Submit to EPA anytime prior to April 2008• Update plan 8 years after redesignation

– Must examine additional 10 years beyond final maintenance year in redesignation package

Redesignation/Maintenance SIPExample Timeline

• End of 2005 -> examine PM2.5 data– If the area attains

• 2005 and maintenance years (e.g. 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016) data needed for emissions estimates/comparisons

– VMT and speeds

• Contingency measures– NCDAQ define triggers and follow-up actions.

• Set motor vehicle emissions budgets– Consultation process… What years?– Safety margins?

• Public hearing• Request expeditious redesignation back to

attainment/maintenance– Redesignation could be final as early as summer 2006

– Conformity due 18 months after approval of Redesignation SIP

Redesignation/Maintenance SIPExample Timeline

• End of 2005 -> examine PM2.5 data– If the area does not attain

• Must start modeled attainment demonstration

• Review 2006 PM2.5 data– Possibly start redesignation package

Redesignation/Maintenance SIPRequirements of transportation partners

• VMT and speeds for attaining year and maintenance years

• Participate in stakeholder meetings• Provide input on additional strategies (if

needed) and contingency measures• Decision on how Motor Vehicle Emissions

Budgets are set• Review package during public comment period

Attainment Demonstration SIPProcess Overview

• Modeling Attainment year = 2009– Attainment date April 5, 2010

• Develop emissions inventory– 2002 inventories– 2009 attainment year inventory

• Comprehensive modeling for 2002 and 2009– Modeling full year– Must pass the USEPA modeled attainment test– If not, additional control strategies must be

developed and modeled

Attainment Demonstration SIPProcess Overview

• Clean Air Act requirement for Basic areas – Reasonable Available Control Measures (RACM)

• Develop draft SIP package– Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for attainment year– Contingency measures

• Take draft SIP to public hearing– 30 day comment period

• Submit to EPA by April 2008

Attainment Demonstration SIPExample Timeline

• Base year modeling underway– Collected (in 2004) VMT and speed data for

2002

• Future year modeling will start Spring ‘05– 2009 VMT and speed data needed– Have needs of RACM been met?

• Awaiting further guidance from USEPA

• Future year emissions and air quality modeling

Attainment Demonstration SIPExample Timeline

• Must pass the USEPA modeled attainment test– If not, additional control strategies must be

developed and modeled

• Develop draft SIP package– Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for attainment year– Contingency measures

• Take draft SIP to public hearing– 30 day comment period

• Submit to EPA by April 2008

Attainment Demonstration SIPRequirements of transportation partners

• VMT and speeds for modeled attainment year• Participate in stakeholder meetings

– Technical update meetings– RACM development– Provide input on additional strategies (if needed) and

contingency measures– Decision on how Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

are set

• Review package during public comment period

VMT and Speeds

• Attainment Demonstration (2009)– March 2005

• Redesignation (2005/2006 & maintenance years)

– October 2005 or October 2006

Stakeholder Meetings

• NCDAQ will host periodic technical updates on process

– Spring and Fall 2005 at minimum

• NCDAQ will host consultation meeting(s) on control strategy development (if needed) and contingency measures

• RACM (if needed)

Will announce @ SICM meetings

Review of SIP Package

• 30-45 days once package is made public

• Will announce @ SICM meetings

New Standards?

• EPA has reviewed the PM2.5 standards– EPA Staff Paper - Draft out for comment

• 15 µg/m3 annual standard • 25-35 µg/m3 - 24-hr standard (99th percentile)

Or• 12-14 µg/m3 annual standard • 35-40 µg/m3 - 24-hr standard (99th percentile)

New Standards?

Fine Particulate (tentative schedule)• October 2004 Criteria Document• December 2005 EPA proposes New Standard• September 2006 EPA Finalizes New Standard• September 2008 EPA Promulgates• September 2011 States Submit SIPs

Questions/Commentshttp://ncair.org

Laura Boothe, Chief of Attainment Planning919-733-1488Laura.Boothe@ncmail.net

Mike Abraczinskas, Environmental Engineer II919-715-3743Michael.Abraczinskas@ncmail.net

Eddie Dancausse, Air Quality Specialist919-856-4330 x112edward.dancausse@fhwa.dot.gov