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SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Transition to Sustainable Energy Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) (TRANSES)
A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers2004 - 2008
Mr. Stephen ConnorsLaboratory for Energy and the EnvironmentMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MA
Dr. Bjorn H. BakkenEnergy SystemsSINTEF Energy ResearchTrondheim, Norway
email: [email protected]
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Scandinavia – an ideal region for analysisScandinavia – an ideal region for analysis
Limited geographical scope Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark Limited connections to neighbouring countries Transparency (data availability)
All major energy resources/technologies present Hydro, nuclear, coal, oil, gas, biomass, wind, … Hydro dominated supply (stochastic resource availablity) Electricity dependent demand
Open markets and competition Common liberalized power market (NordPool) Emerging European gas market Emerging “green certificate” markets New renewables have to compete in current markets
Challenging region for experimenting with new planning models and methodologies!
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Energy products of NorwayEnergy products of Norway20012001
1810
530
118
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Energy products
Ene
rgy
(TW
h) HydropowerGasOil
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Total energy Total energy consumptionconsumption in Norway in Norway1970 - 20011970 - 2001
50
100
150
200
250
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Natural and other gassesOil productsDistrict heatingElectricityWood and wasteCoal and coke
TWh/year
Electricity +2.6% p.a.
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Electricity Generation in Nordel 2002 (TWh)Electricity Generation in Nordel 2002 (TWh)
DENMARK
SWEDEN
FINLAND
NORWAY
Conv. thermal
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
65.6 66.0
11.2
0.6
0.8
129.7
39.8
21.410.6
32.3
4.9
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
NOU 1998:11NOU 1998:11 Electricity demand scenariosElectricity demand scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
TW
h/y
ea
r
Green BP
Heavy C-1
Heavy C-2
Steady
Journey Up
2002
2003
2007
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Range of wind power cost
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Week
NO
K/M
Wh
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2004
Nordel Elspot prices 1995 - 2004 Nordel Elspot prices 1995 - 2004 Weekly average (USD/MWh)Weekly average (USD/MWh)
US
D/M
Wh
100
50
25
75
125
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Annual increase in generation and consumption Annual increase in generation and consumption 1960 - 20001960 - 2000
1990-20001980-19901970-19801960-1970
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
TWh/year
Average increase in generationAverage increase in generation
Average increase in consumptionAverage increase in consumption
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Generation capacity vs. consumptionGeneration capacity vs. consumption1976 - 20011976 - 2001
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
TW
h/ye
ar
Consumption
Average generation 2002 (119 TWh/year)
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
TRANSES ObjectivesTRANSES Objectives
Enable governments, industries and communities to meet their future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment
Outline and evaluate likely technology portfolios, deployment paths and policy options to meet future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment
Create an international arena for dissemination of results, dialogue and exchange of ideas in order to gain a swifter transition to sustainable energy services
Provide a toolbox of computational tools, methods and databases for analysis and decision support under uncertainty
PhD education and long-term scientific cooperation between the institutions involved
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
TRANSES SponsorsTRANSES Sponsors
Project idea created by Norsk Hydro, The Industry’s Innovation Fund at NTNU and Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU
Total budget (2004-08): USD 4,300,000
Current sponsors: Norsk Hydro Norske Shell Statoil Statkraft (Norw. State Power Company) Statnett (Norw. Grid Company) Statsbygg (Directorate of Public Construction and Property) Enova (Agency for Energy efficiency and Renewable energy) The Research Council of Norway(?) ...
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Scientific partners of TRANSESScientific partners of TRANSES
Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU
Dept. of Electrical Power Engineering, NTNU
Dept. of Architectural Design, History and Technology, NTNU
SINTEF Energy Research
The Laboratory For Energy and the Environment (LFEE) at MIT
Dept. of Energy Technology, Chalmers
SINTEF Materials and chemistry
Institute for Energy Technology (IFE)
BI (Norwegian School of Management) (?)
Industrial Ecology Programme (IndEcol), NTNU (?)
ChalmersMITNTNU
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
TRANSES PhD StudiesTRANSES PhD Studies
A number of coordinated PhD studies and possibly PostDoc postitions will be initiated at the different participating institutions. Suggested themes are:
Efficient energy use / Building technology (NTNU + MIT) The end users role and behaviour (NTNU + MIT) Hydrogen as future energy carrier (NTNU + IFE) MCDM / Decision support under uncertainty (NTNU + MIT) Emissions trading and green certificates (NTNU + Chalmers) CO2 capture technology (NTNU + Chalmers) Life Cycle Assessment (NTNU + MIT)
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
TRANSES Analytical frameworkTRANSES Analytical framework
Supply scenarios(capacities, locations,
technologies etc.)
Supply scenarios(capacities, locations,
technologies etc.)
Demand scenarios(sectors, carriers,
services etc.)
Demand scenarios(sectors, carriers,
services etc.)
Assumptions(attributes, strategies,
uncertainties etc.)
Assumptions(attributes, strategies,
uncertainties etc.)
Presentationof results
(trade-off plots etc.)
Presentationof results
(trade-off plots etc.)Stakeholder interaction
Stakeholder interaction
”Typical” scenario study
TRANSES dialog process
Energy system
simulator(s)
Energy system
simulator(s)
MCDM(extractionof results, trade-offanalysis)
MCDM(extractionof results, trade-offanalysis)
Economy/Investm.
Economy/Investm.
”Analytical engine”
Data input(resources,
technologies, costs,
efficiencies, demand
etc.)
Data input(resources,
technologies, costs,
efficiencies, demand
etc.)
Policy framework(emission control, taxes,
incentives, etc.)
Policy framework(emission control, taxes,
incentives, etc.)
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
WP.07 Generation
Infrastr.
WorkPackage orginizationWorkPackage orginization
WP.04BuildingSector
WP.06 Hydrogen
WP.05 MARKAL
WP.10Evaluation
WP.11 PhD
PostDoc
WP.08 Energy
Scenarios
WP.09MIT
Scenarios
WP.03StakeholderWorkshops
WP.03StakeholderWorkshops
WP
.01
Pro
ject
Man
agem
ent
WP
.02
Net
wor
king
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Transition to Sustainable Energy Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) (TRANSES)
A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers2004 - 2008
Mr. Stephen ConnorsLaboratory for Energy and the EnvironmentMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge, MA
Dr. Bjorn H. BakkenEnergy SystemsSINTEF Energy ResearchTrondheim, Norway
email: [email protected]
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
TRANSESTRANSES
Project plan - OverviewProject plan - Overview
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008RESP. 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
.01 Management SINTEF
.02 Networking SINTEF
.03 Workshops SINTEF
.04 Building Sector NTNU
.05 MARKAL System Analysis IFE
.06 Hydrogen Chains SINTEF
.07 Generation Infrastructure Chalmers
.08 Energy Scenarios SINTEF
.09 MIT Scenario Analysis MIT
.10 Evaluation/conclusions SINTEF
.11 PhD/PostDoc NTNUPhD 1 - Building Tech.PhD 2 - End user behaviour
PhD 3 - Hydrogen chains
PhD 4 - MCDMPhD 5 - to be decidedPostDoc 3x1
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
TRANSES – current activities (first year)TRANSES – current activities (first year)
Identify adequate analytical tools Preliminary studies with EMPS model and MIT Trade-off New or existing models and methodologies
Input data and assumptions Current system, new resources, technological alternatives,
macroeconomic trends etc.
Establishing efficient ways of cooperation between participating institutions Core activities in Trondheim, Norway
Employing PhD students
Establish stakeholder group Initial stakeholder meetings Extend the funding for the project
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Multi-Attribute TMulti-Attribute Trade-Off Analysis (1)rade-Off Analysis (1)
TRANSES: Not just another scenario study!
Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Trade-off Analysis Scenario planning approach developed to facilitate dialogue
and learning among multi-stakeholder audiences Graphical presentation of trade-offs
Large Number of Technological Options Multi-Option Strategies
Large Number of Uncertainties Multiple Futures (fuel prices, demand etc.)
Large Number of Goal States/Attributes Multiple Stakeholders, Conflicting Goals
MIT has extensive experience in applying Multi-Attribute Trade-Off Analysis New England, Switzerland, Shandong (China), ….
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Multi-Attribute TMulti-Attribute Trade-Off Analysis (2)rade-Off Analysis (2)
Source: SR Connors, MIT
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Multi-Attribute TMulti-Attribute Trade-Off Analysis (3)rade-Off Analysis (3) Features
Helps facilitate stakeholder dialogues Identifies “Good” and “Bad” strategies Identifies competing/complementary sets of options Recognizes different “Deployment Schedules” of different options Identifies “Robust/Flexible” versus “Optimal” strategies
Supported by Simulation and optimisation tools
E.g. EMPS model, Markal, Prosym, others “Analytical package” still to be determined
Stakeholder workshops Emphasize stakeholder interaction and dialogue
Challenges Market aspect
Decentralised planning, multiple decision makers Consistent representation of investments
Market driven, high risk
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Demand uncertaintiesDemand uncertainties
Driving forces for growth in electricity demand Substitution of oil to electricity Increased comfort (kWh/m2) Increased activities (m2 and NOK) Domestic changes (m2 per capita)
Uncertainties in demand Development of district heating Development of natural gas Development of hydrogen etc.
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Residential electricity consumption Residential electricity consumption in Norway (%)in Norway (%)
Space heating 41
Hot water 24
Lighting 11
Cooling 8
Cooking 4
Washing 3
Drying 2
Other equipment 7
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Peak demand recordsPeak demand records1990 - 20021990 - 2002
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Pea
k de
man
d (G
W)
Available generation capacity in winter (23 – 24.5 GW)
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Exisiting demand scenariosExisiting demand scenarios
SINTEF 1996 Energy +1% p.a. Peak power +1.2% p.a.
NOU 1998:11 ‘Green Brainpower’ +0.8% p.a. ‘Climate Road’ +0.2-0.7% p.a. ‘Steady Course’ +1.3% p.a. ‘Long Journey Up’ +1.5% p.a.
Nordel area: +8% from 2000 to 2010
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Supply options (1) Supply options (1)
Hydro power Politically and environmentally controversial
International electricity exchange European markets? Emissions trading and certificate markets?
Conventional gas power Politically and environmentally controversial
Gas power with CO2 removal
High investments and reduced efficiency
Direct use of gas Expensive infrastructure Environmentally controversial
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Supply options (2) Supply options (2)
Wind power High potential, but not without problems
District heating with renewable energy sources Expensive infrastructure
Biomass and waste Currently only heat generation Waste is paid fuel!
Hydrogen Promising technology Expensive Not an energy source!!
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Demand side options (1)Demand side options (1)
Local energy studies Demand forecasts Resource mapping Supply and infrastructure
Local generation Utilize electricity and heat
Heat pumps Alternative for heating, but increases dependence on electricity
Passive (thermal) solar systems
End-user flexibility / Demand side bidding
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Demand side options (2)Demand side options (2)
Power intensive industries 30-35 TWh Selling power “back” to the market Increased efficiency (kWh/NOK)
Transport sector Main source of CO2 in Norway
Building locations
New building codes and techniques Less effect than expected Slow turnover of buildings
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Climate issuesClimate issues
Global, regional (Europe) and national level
Kyoto protocol GHG emissions related to 1990 level Joint international implementation possible
EU directives Pre-Kyoto GHG permit trading system limited to large thermal
power plants
National directives and incentives Pre-Kyoto GHG permit trading system under development
Swedish green certificate market established May 2003 Possible development to common Nordic market
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Range of wind power cost
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Week
NO
K/M
Wh
1995199619982000200220032004
Nordel Elspot prices 1995 - 2003 Nordel Elspot prices 1995 - 2003 Weekly average (EURO/MWh)Weekly average (EURO/MWh)