Single -Family Housing Unit Analysis And District ... · PDF fileSchool Taxation Districts ... Current Year versus First Projection Year ... through the Individual Student Enrollment

Single-Family Housing Unit Analysis And District Enrollment Projections

Prepared for the Germantown School District, Wisconsin

Provided by Springsted Incorporated

January 2014

[Page Intentionally Left Blank]

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 1

Research Approach ..................................................................................................................................................... 3

District Map and Boundaries ...................................................................................................................................... 4

School Taxation Districts ............................................................................................................................................ 7

Primary Taxation Districts .......................................................................................................................................... 8

Population Trends........................................................................................................................................................ 9

County Housing ......................................................................................................................................................... 10

Municipal Housing Trends ........................................................................................................................................ 10

Building Permit Activity ............................................................................................................................................. 11

Single Family Housing Units .................................................................................................................................... 11

Estimated Student Generation from Single Family Housing Development .......................................................... 12

Housing Turnover ...................................................................................................................................................... 14

Enrollment Projections .............................................................................................................................................. 19

Enrollment History ................................................................................................................................................... 20

Kindergarten Enrollment .......................................................................................................................................... 20

Projection Method .................................................................................................................................................... 21

Student Migration..................................................................................................................................................... 22

Enrollment Migration Change by Grade................................................................................................................... 22

Enrollment – Current Year versus First Projection Year .......................................................................................... 24

10 Year Enrollment Projection Matrix and Graph .................................................................................................... 25

Current Grade Configurations with Projections ........................................................................................................ 26

Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................... 27

Sources ....................................................................................................................................................................... 28

Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................................... 29

Projection by Grade and Method ............................................................................................................................. 30

District Perimeter Map ............................................................................................................................................. 31

Glossary of Terms ................................................................................................................................................... 32

Cohort Survival Method .......................................................................................................................... 32

Ratio Average Approach ......................................................................................................................... 32

P a g e | 1

Germantown School District, Wisconsin

Introduction Springsted Incorporated was recently commissioned to provide a single family housing unit study for the Germantown School District. The primary goal of the study is to research the potential impact of single family housing units on the District’s overall student population in combination with an enrollment projection analysis provided by SchoolFinances.com.

By using housing data combined with historical enrollment data and enrollment trends, this report provides rational outcomes about future area residential consequences and its impact on the school district population. The analysis is not assumed to be a comprehensive review of all related areas, but rather to examine the primary indicators of the District’s condition and the potential outcome.

In many cases the researched data was developed and presented through a ratio analysis technique whereby information is divided by demographic measures to provide a per unit measure relative to the variable being studied. The U.S. Census Bureau reports much of its information by municipality as opposed to school district. The U.S. Census Bureau also frequently excludes township information, applicable to this study, in its reporting. As a result of these facts, and the fact that school district boundaries do not align completely with municipal boundaries that feed school age children into the District, reasonable norms are developed to express local District conclusions.

The enrollment projections contained in this report provide projections individually by grade, by grade grouping and for the school district as a whole. Projections extend from the 2014-15 school year through the 2023-24 school year. Grade groupings can be further assessed if the District deems it necessary to look at future grade grouping adjustments from its existing structure.

P a g e | 2


Upon reading this report, be cognizant of the fact that enrollment projections are based on cohort survival rates and recent historic trends in births. When using enrollment projections for planning purposes, it’s also important to be aware that the projections use only actual enrollments and retention rates as formulating variables. Other factors that exist in a particular school district may need to be considered in conjunction with the projections to most accurately estimate future enrollments. Springsted Incorporated would like to thank the Germantown School District for the opportunity to provide this analysis. We know you will find the report beneficial as the District looks to its future needs.

P a g e | 3


Research Approach The information contained in this report is comprised primarily from public sources. All 2000 and 2010 demographic, economic and housing data were collected through the U.S. Census Bureau. Additionally, the 2007-2011 US Census American Community Survey was utilized to expand the analysis from the official census years when applicable. Other data sources include the State of Wisconsin, the Wisconsin Department of Revenue, Washington County, and information provided by the municipalities that make up the Germantown School District.

As noted, a significant amount of data was collected through the U.S. Census Bureau. The decennial census is the only data gathering operation in the United States that is mandated by the Constitution. The first census was taken in 1790, and since then, occurring every 10 years. The primary purpose of the decennial census is to provide the population counts that determine how seats in the U. S. House of Representatives are apportioned. Census figures also are required to draw congressional and state legislative district boundaries, to allocate federal and state funds, to formulate public policy, and to assist with planning and decision making in the private sector. A major benefit of using the U.S. Census is that its consistent method and structure for data collection allows effective comparability and analysis. Census data is also a broadly accepted method to compare data for communities and other public government agencies, like school districts.

The enrollment projection section of this report includes information collected from the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction and the Germantown School District. Historical enrollment data was collected through the Individual Student Enrollment System (ISES) Data collection as reported through the Wisconsin Student Number Locator System.

P a g e | 4


District Map and Boundaries Before getting into the results of the analysis, we must first examine the boundaries of the District to fully understand the educational service area. The following map depicts the boundaries as reported through the U.S. Census Bureau. A more clearly identified, color-coded version of the District’s attendance perimeter is also included in the Appendix of this report.

The District encompasses 56 square miles and is located entirely in Washington County, Wisconsin. The District serves the Village of Germantown, the Town of Germantown, portions of the Village of Richfield, and portions of the Town of Jackson and the Town of Polk. The District is 20 miles northwest of downtown Milwaukee giving residents’ quality suburban living with easy access to the metropolitan Milwaukee area. The area also offers an industrial tax base through multiple industrial parks.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

P a g e | 5



P a g e | 6


SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING ANALYSIS

P a g e | 7


School Taxation Districts To understand the makeup of the District, one should have knowledge of the municipalities that comprise the District and the amount of property value the designated boundaries represent for tax purposes. The State of Wisconsin Department of Revenue uses defined attendance areas, categorized as taxation districts, to collect school taxes for operating local public school systems. The Germantown School District has five (5) taxation districts that make up the complete District. The great majority of the District falls within two (2) taxation districts: 1.) the Village of Germantown, and 2.) the Village of Richfield. The following chart provides a complete breakdown of tax distribution for the 2013-14 school term. The total 2013-14 equalized valuation for the combined taxation districts was 2,863,929,124.

Source: Wisconsin Department of Revenue

P a g e | 8


Specific valuations by taxation district are provided below. The values will fluctuate from year to year by taxation district. Percentages of each taxation district relative to the total valuation of the District also changes from year to year. Nonetheless, tax distribution for the school district is distributed according to the percentages each taxation district represents of the total equalized valuation.

Source: Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction

Primary Taxation Districts Referenced earlier, Wisconsin school districts often don’t have matching boundaries to the complete list of municipalities that support their school system. In fact, throughout the majority of the State, many school districts have boundaries that fall into multiple, pro-rata sections of villages, and townships. This situation is evident for the Germantown School District. For example, 31% of the Village of Richfield falls into the Germantown School District, representing slightly more than 18% of the total school district’s equalized valuation. The Village of Richfield’s remaining 69% falls into neighboring school systems governed by different educational boards.

Due to the boundary variances between the local municipalities and the school district, assumptions need to be made relative to housing and its impact on the school district. Since the villages of Germantown and Richfield are actively reported through the U.S. Census Bureau, represent nearly 93% of the total school district tax base, and serve the majority of the resident students, these two areas shall serve as proxies for the District’s analysis.

Taxation District Equalized ValueT. Germantown 21,804,900$ T. Jackson 134,555,852$ T. Polk 52,962,876$ V. Germantown 2,131,932,700$ V. Richfield 522,672,796$

TOTAL 2,863,929,124$

P a g e | 9


Population Trends Population change can be one broad demographic indicator of shifting demands for public services and ability to pay. It represents a rough measure of the overall health of the community, and also provides insight into the extent of the local tax base available to the District.

Since general population data is not readily available on a District basis, we use the population figures for the Village of Germantown and for Washington County as representations. These trends, along with the population figures for the State of Wisconsin as a whole, are shown below. Consistent growth for both the county and village are apparent and typical indicators of desirable places to live.


0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

240,000

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

1990 Census 2000 Census 2005 Est. 2010 Census

Coun

ty P

opul

atio

n

City

Pop

ulat

ion

Population

Village of Germantown Washington County

P a g e | 10


County Housing Consistent with the population trends of the county, Washington County has also continued to experience growth in its housing development. From 2000 to 2011, Washington County housing units grew from 45,808 to 54,404; representing 19% growth. The housing units included in this reference are: single family housing units, condos, quads, townhomes and multifamily units. The information presented in this section was gathered through the 2000 U.S. Census and the U.S. Census 2011 American Community Survey.

The largest growth housing unit type for the county was the single family housing category. Single family housing units grew by 6,296, representing 20% growth.

Municipal Housing Trends Similar to Washington County, the District’s primary municipality also experienced housing growth. From 2000 to 2011, the Village of Germantown’s housing units grew from 7,068 to 7,929; representing 12% growth. These figures include the same housing types and sources as noted for the county. The largest growth for the village was the single family housing unit category. Single family housing units grew by 710 homes between 2000 and 2011, representing nearly 17% growth.

P a g e | 11


Building Permit Activity Building permits are valid indicators of population growth and school district enrollment growth beyond what local enrollment projections may offer. From 2008 to 2012 the Village of Germantown issued a total of 105 building permits for single family homes. The following section provides insight into what the home growth reflects and also what to consider when studying the information.

Single Family Housing Units Single family housing units reflect the most consistent indicator of new students per new household. Therefore, analysis will focus on this related data so as not to artificially inflate students that may come from other housing unit types. History has shown that multifamily complexes traditionally contain fewer, permanent, school-aged children than single family homes.

Upon reviewing the most recent housing data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau and comparing the data to the student population for the Germantown School District, a general student per home ratio can be developed.

Examining the single family housing development over the years for the region provides insight into how in-migration into the District may be influencing enrollment changes. If the number of homes to be developed is expected to grow over the next several years, then we can generally assume that the school age children count will also grow. Conversely, if the number of building permits for single family homes declines, reduced growth levels or even declines in enrollment may occur in future years assuming limited changeover of home ownership for a community.

An important point to keep in mind when studying housing is that while trends are generally consistent indicators of housing for future years, several variables play a role in future growth patterns. For example, many state, county or local decisions will directly impact the demand for housing. Taking this example further, the cost to borrow money for families needing to finance a home will play a role in their ability to move forward with a decision to build a home in the area. Lastly, a question that needs to be posed is whether or not a community is landlocked for future development. Limited property development capacity tends to be a more common issue for urban school districts or districts with a small boundary perimeter.

P a g e | 12


The following chart provides building permit activity for the Village of Germantown. Since 2009 there has been consistent, healthy growth in the number of single family housing units built in the Village. Based on the chart below, there has been annual growth ranging from 18% to 22% over the last three years.


Estimated Student Generation from Single Family Housing Development The students generated per household that were derived in this study represent an average generation rate based upon the housing units reported by the 2010 U.S. Census for the Germantown School District. Any individual development may have a higher or lower student generation rate. This study does not attempt to create housing multipliers based upon the number of bedrooms due to the lack of accurate, available data.

Based on the most recent official data collected from the 2010 U.S. Census Bureau .54 students are generated per household for the Germantown School District. This factor was determined after collecting both the school age children count for the school district and the total number of housing units for the same geographic area. As future home development takes shape, this standard can be utilized to develop the potential school age children impact to the District.

P a g e | 13


To put the student per household ratio in perspective for the Germantown School District, Springsted has found the following ranges across studies completed in the United States relative to growth categories.

Students per Home Growth Category 0.58 to 0.72 High Growth 0.34 to 0.38 Moderate Growth 0.27 or less Slow Growth

As depicted in the preceding chart, the students generated from housing in the District falls in between the moderate and high growth categories. This outcome would lend itself to support steady to higher growth into the immediate future.

By studying the two largest municipalities that make up nearly 93% of the school district, we can develop some rational estimates as to the long-term impact. The Village of Germantown is averaging 21 new homes over the last five years. The Village of Richfield, if prorated to represent the portion of the village falling in the District, averages 6.2 new homes a year. Looking at these figures and their corresponding student per home ratios, 27 new homes a year would generate nearly 15 new students according to the student factor per household identified earlier.

The following chart examines linear trend progression based off the last five years of activity for this study. Bear in mind that the actual years used for developing the future trend were during an economic recession period. Economic recessions typically generate lower building permit activity than non-recession periods. While trends can be debated, historical trends for non-landlocked communities often prove relevant to the future; assuming no dramatic change in the local economy, local government, and local policy.

P a g e | 14


Note: Chart history represents majority of district (based on municipal responses and available data).

Projecting building permit activity forward with linear trend analysis, we can estimate that the next five years could reasonably experience building permit activity of 30 to 34 single family housing units, annually, for the majority of the District’s attendance area. Utilizing the prior noted student generator per single family housing unit of .54, we can estimate new students from the housing units to reasonably be up to 18 additional students, annually, in the immediate to near future.

Housing Turnover Cycles of housing ownership are a constant for any community. It’s important to point out that as housing ownership demographics change, the impact can often contribute to enrollment changes for a school district. Enrollments for a school system can increase or decline without any impact of housing development due to changes in housing ownership.

Generally speaking, the child per household ratio is typically higher for a younger family population. Conversely, an older community family population often dictates a lower child per household ratio. While the community age typically dictates the child per household ratio, trends in birthing age have changed significantly over the last two decades, further

30

21 25 25

33 y = 0.9772x + 24.27

R² = 0.1081

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Germantown School District Building Permit Activity with Trendline

P a g e | 15


complicating the impact of age and its influence on school age children counts. Nonetheless, be aware that ownership and transition cycles play a role in enrollment fluctuations for school systems.

The following two (2) charts captured from the 2000 and 2010 census reports illustrate the age distribution for the Village of Germantown along with the change in median age over the last decade.


P a g e | 16


Note: The median age saw a 5.1 year change, or 14% increase between 2000 and 2010.

P a g e | 17



P a g e | 18


ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

P a g e | 19


Enrollment Projections The following section of this report provides enrollment projections by grade level initialized from Wisconsin’s Individual Student Enrollment System (ISES) and current year enrollment information provided by the District. For Wisconsin school districts, the ISES data represents the actual head count reported, by grade level, to the State. Based on architectural standards, five (5) years of enrollment history was utilized to project what enrollment, by grade, looking forward. The enrollment projections also include the potential students generated from the single family housing units noted in the first part of this report.

To project enrollments, it is an accepted practice to utilize a demographic technique whereby current students are transferred throughout the grades over time by survival rates. The survival rates can come in multiple, acceptable methods. Like any projection, the transfer rates from grade to grade and year to year make assumptions how in-migration and out-migration occur.

Based on collaboration with the District and its architect, a four (4) year average ratio in grade to grade progression was determined to be the most reasonable projection approach considering local variables. In this method a cohort progression ratio is computed for each grade level from the previous year; dividing the current enrollment in one grade by the previous enrollment in the previous grade by the previous year. The ratios are then averaged and applied forward for projection determination. Upon selecting this method, additional analysis is generated and reported for the projection in this study.

The data and graphics contained in this report can be used for future planning, however, caution should be used since local economic factors, school choice trends (or local policy changes) and class size factors may impact enrollment inconsistent with the history utilized to generate the projection.

P a g e | 20


Enrollment History To begin the analysis of enrollment trends, we must first study the historical information of the District. The following chart provides enrollment history for the last five (5) years by grade level with yearly District totals. As the chart illustrates, the district has seen both growth and declines over the years.

Kindergarten Enrollment Birth rates and Kindergarten enrollment play important roles in predicting future enrollment for a school district. The enrollment report uses county birth rates with linear progression analysis to predict upcoming Kindergarten enrollment. Incoming Kindergartners will replace outgoing Twelfth graders to generate a new K-12 population and trend for the District moving forward. In 2013-14, there was a significant drop in the Kindergarten enrollment from 260 in the previous year to 213 in the current year. For projection purposes an 18% drop in Kindergarten count significantly impacts the projection. If the count is

Grade 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14Pre-K 61 58 36 48 30

K 210 255 266 260 213 1 270 227 272 258 267 2 242 274 233 278 267 3 303 256 286 246 279 4 272 306 264 291 255 5 287 285 304 271 294 6 307 308 288 305 278 7 273 317 312 299 317 8 290 294 314 314 304 9 380 354 329 362 363 10 333 386 356 326 367 11 358 348 385 351 323 12 357 366 349 388 353

K-12 3,882 3,976 3,958 3,949 3,880 Pre K-12 3,943 4,034 3,994 3,997 3,910 % Change K-12 2.4% -0.5% -0.2% -1.7%

P a g e | 21


uncharacteristic for this area, the reader should be conscious of the fact and plan according to more typical local trends.

Projection Method The following chart illustrates the graphing methodology used to examine the District’s enrollment trend. The projection below depicts a four-year average ratio. The average ratio methodology computes the progression ratios for the last four years and averages the ratio, which is multiplied by the current enrollment to project future enrollment. Like any projection the farther into the future you assess enrollments the larger the potential variance between the projection and the actual enrollment figures. So enrollment estimates over the next five (5) years will be more precise than estimates at the end of the decade.

P a g e | 22


Student Migration Enrollment projection involves migration analysis for each grade versus the enrollment in the preceding year in the previous grade. If the succeeding grade enrollment is higher there is a positive migration at that grade level. If the succeeding grade enrollment is lower there is a negative migration. Net migration change between the outgoing 12th grade class and the incoming Kindergarten class plays a critical role in the district-wide enrollment change. Said another way, an outgoing trend is replaced by a new, incoming trend.

Enrollment Migration Change by Grade The first graph below illustrates migration change by grade in the first year of the projections. The second graph is an overview of the total migration change, by grade, including the enrollment change attributable to the difference between the graduating 12th grade class in the spring and the entering Kindergarten.

P a g e | 23


P a g e | 24


Enrollment – Current Year versus First Projection Year

The following charts illustrate the one-year enrollment change, by grade, between the current school year and the first projection year. Note the changes reflected through the grade by grade progression ratios and migration. The incoming estimates and outgoing counts play a major role in the future projection outcome.

P a g e | 25


10 Year Enrollment Projection Matrix and Graph

The following information identifies the student enrollment count by grade in both a chart and graph. The current year enrollment is shown with a 10 year projection by year and by grade level. The following graphic includes potential students from single family housing unit development. The impact of those students will be a serviced population by the local school district.

Germantown Sch Di 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24

Kindergarten 213.0 245.5 246.6 247.7 248.8 249.9 251.0 252.1 253.2 254.3 255.4Grade 1 267.0 222.1 254.3 255.5 256.6 257.7 258.9 260.0 261.2 262.3 263.4Grade 2 267.0 275.0 227.5 260.5 261.7 262.9 264.0 265.2 266.4 267.5 268.7Grade 3 279.0 279.1 286.0 236.6 271.0 272.2 273.4 274.6 275.8 277.0 278.2Grade 4 255.0 287.0 285.8 292.7 242.2 277.4 278.6 279.9 281.1 282.3 283.6Grade 5 294.0 261.4 292.6 291.3 298.4 246.9 282.8 284.0 285.3 286.6 287.8Grade 6 278.0 303.7 268.7 300.8 299.5 306.8 253.8 290.7 292.0 293.3 294.6Grade 7 317.0 288.0 313.0 276.9 310.0 308.7 316.2 261.6 299.6 300.9 302.3Grade 8 304.0 325.6 294.4 320.1 283.2 317.0 315.6 323.3 267.5 306.4 307.7Grade 9 363.0 354.7 378.1 342.0 371.7 328.9 368.2 366.6 375.5 310.7 355.8Grade 10 367.0 366.8 357.0 380.6 344.2 374.1 331.0 370.6 369.0 378.0 312.7Grade 11 323.0 370.2 368.5 358.7 382.4 345.8 375.9 332.6 372.4 370.7 379.8Grade 12 353.0 327.5 373.7 372.1 362.2 386.1 349.2 379.6 335.8 376.0 374.3Total-Graph Below 3880.0 3906.5 3946.3 3935.5 3931.9 3934.4 3918.7 3940.8 3934.7 3966.0 3964.4Change 26.5 39.8 (10.8) (3.6) 2.5 (15.8) 22.1 (6.1) 31.3 (1.6)% Change 0.68% 1.02% -0.27% -0.09% 0.06% -0.40% 0.56% -0.15% 0.80% -0.04%

3,820

3,840

3,860

3,880

3,900

3,920

3,940

3,960

3,980

4,000

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24

Ten Year Enrollment Projection Graph

P a g e | 26


Current Grade Configurations with Projections

Generally, grade configuration represents the grade levels assigned in a school district for their respective school buildings. The following graph illustrates the current grade configurations of the Germantown School District along with the associated enrollment projections; assuming the configurations stay constant. In the event the District would elect to modify current grade configurations, the following chart can be adjusted to reflect the change.

P a g e | 27


Conclusions The information contained in this report provides insight into the potential student population trends for the Germantown School District. The outcomes in this study are tied to both future single family housing unit development and the District’s enrollment data. Grade progressions and the related cohort survival rates for students are based on actual historical activity. Since the majority of the population are either born or included in the enrollment for the district and assigned by grade for the next few years, the projections should be highly accurate during this timeframe. Moving beyond the 2016-17 projection, the actual enrollment will deviate from the projections, especially at the elementary grades since birth trends and incoming students and transfers are more difficult to predict. This phenomenon is not unique to the Germantown School District, but an inherent statistical consequence for any enrollment projection.

The study incorporated a focused, five-year term of historical data as part of the analysis to meet architectural standards and guidance that were previously shared with the District. To sum up the District’s projection trend as a whole, the report identifies growth over the next two (2) years of approximately 66 students or 1.7% from the current school year. Beyond 2015-16, the report shows a flattening out of enrollment. From a grade groupings standpoint over the next couple of years, the projection reflects that the 9-12 high school will experience increasing enrollment into the next two years with a leveling out into the future. The K-5 grade school group will see a slight drop in the initial projection year with modest growth in the second year. Lastly, the 6-8 middle school is expected to experience slight growth in its first year with a drop below its current year level in the second projection year, with slight growth and stable levels beyond year two.

Since the projections in this report are based on current migration trends in and out of the district, major changes to disrupt past migration trends moving forward will compromise the results of the report. We strongly urge our clients to monitor and inform us of changes in the migration trends for the near future to assess actual data with projections. Annual monitoring can assist in determining whether a disruption in projection assumptions is statistically significant enough to warrant review and potential adjustments to the forecast.

P a g e | 28


Sources Springsted trusts this information provides you with valuable information for future planning purposes. In the event additional analysis is necessary as a result of changes in policy or past practices, Springsted is available to assist the District as needed.

In the preparation of this analysis, the following sources were used:

• U.S. Census Bureau • Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction • Wisconsin Department of Revenue • Germantown School District • District Municipalities/Taxation Districts

P a g e | 29


Appendix

P a g e | 30


Projection by Grade and Method

Ratio 4th Yr Avg. K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 K-12

2014-15 246 222 275 279 287 261 304 288 326 355 367 370 328 3,906

2015-16 247 254 228 286 286 293 269 313 294 378 357 369 374 3,946

2016-17 248 255 261 237 293 291 301 277 320 342 381 359 372 3,936

2017-18 249 257 262 271 242 298 299 310 283 372 344 382 362 3,932

2018-19 250 258 263 272 277 247 307 309 317 329 374 346 386 3,934

2019-20 251 259 264 273 279 283 254 316 316 368 331 376 349 3,919

2020-21 252 260 265 275 280 284 291 262 323 367 371 333 380 3,941

2021-22 253 261 266 276 281 285 292 300 267 376 369 372 336 3,935

2022-23 254 262 268 277 282 287 293 301 306 311 378 371 376 3,966

2023-24 255 263 269 278 284 288 295 302 308 356 313 380 374 3,964

P a g e | 31


District Perimeter Map

Source: U.S. Census Bureau- yellow denotes school district attendance area.

P a g e | 32


Glossary of Terms

Cohort Survival Method The Cohort Method examines how enrollment has changed by grade from year to year. By comparing the number of students in a particular grade to the number of students in the previous grade during the previous year, grade to grade progression ratios can be computed for each grade which then are used to project future enrollment. This rate of change is referred to as the "Cohort Survival Ratio" and a common method of examining enrollment. The Cohort survival enrollment projection methodology examines the rate of change in enrollment from grade to grade as opposed to a numeric change.

Ratio Average Approach Average refers to the average ratio in a given history. Ratios are computed as described in the cohort methodology above, and then can be averaged; so that the Average four (4) year method computes the ratios for the last 4 years and averages the ratio, which is multiplied by the current enrollment to project future enrollment.

Documents

Single -Family Housing Unit Analysis And District ... · PDF fileSchool Taxation Districts ... Current Year versus First Projection Year ... through the Individual Student Enrollment