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Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Page 1: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groupsMark A. Rayner – Université de Genève

10th July 2014, Bern

Hyper-Kamiokande

1 – 2 km detector

Hyper-Kamiokande

Page 2: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groupsMark A. Rayner – Université de Genève

10th July 2014, Bern

Hyper-Kamiokande

1 – 2 km detector

Hyper-Kamiokande

SN 1987ain Super-K 

Page 3: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

Sinergia strategy meeting Bern, 10th July 2014

3Hyper-Kamiokande

Can be ×10 the mass of LAr for the same cost

Page 4: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

Sinergia strategy meeting Bern, 10th July 2014

4Hyper-Kamiokande

Normal hierarchy

δCP = ½ π

• CPV is sub-leading• Matter effects are relatively unimportant

Maximal θ23

Page 5: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

Sinergia strategy meeting Bern, 10th July 2014

5Hyper-Kamiokande

Given large θ13

Compare P( υμ → υe ) and P( υμ → υe )

Page 6: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

Sinergia strategy meeting Bern, 10th July 2014

6Hyper-Kamiokande

Page 7: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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The 4th open meeting took place in Tokyo in January

The 5th open meeting will take place in Vancouver in July

The 2nd EU meeting took place at CERN in June

http://indico.ipmu.jp/indico/conferenceDisplay.py?confId=29 http://indico.ipmu.jp/indico/conferenceDisplay.py?confId=34

https://indico.cern.ch/event/319681/

Page 8: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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The Science Council of Japan selected Hyper-Kamiokande as one of 27 important large-scale projects in the “Master plan 2014”

Page 9: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Page 10: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

dCP Sensitivity MH Sensitivity

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Normalhierarchy

Invertedhierarchy

(Assuming T2K and NOvA use 1:1 nu:nubar)

MH also fromDB + 60km JUNO detector,

INO and PINGU

90%

90%Wark, EU meeting

Hyper-Kamiokande

Where will be by 2020?

Page 11: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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A binned likelihood analysis reconstructed neutrino energy distribution appearance and disappearance samples are fitted simultaneously

As before: sin2 2θ13 and δCP are fitted

Now also: sin2 θ23 and Δm2

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Systematic uncertainties are estimated based on the experience and prospects of the T2K experiment

7.5 MW × 107 seconds is assumed 1.56×1022 POT with 30 GeV J-PARC beam

neutrino : anti-neutrino running time = 1:3 expected number of events are approximately the same for nu and nubar mode

Sensitivity analyses

Page 12: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Reconstructed neutrino energy distribution of the υe candidate events

N.B. the π0 background is reduced to about 30% compared to the previous study

Page 13: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Reconstructed neutrino energy distribution of the υμ candidate events

significant wrong-sign component

Page 14: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Page 15: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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statistical errors

Page 16: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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total uncertaintyflux

– and – cross section constrained by ND

cross section not constrained by NDfar detector

conservatively, same as T2K

estimated from atm. υ control sampledecrease by > factor ten except E-scale and FSI

Uncertainties for the χ2 definition

appearance disappearance

target nucleus uncertainties → negligible

Page 17: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

2011 LoI

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90% confidence regions

Page 18: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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significance to exclude δCP = 0

2011 LoI

Page 19: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Atmospheric mixing parameters with accelerator neutrinos

90% confidence regions

Page 20: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Atmospheric neutrinos

Page 21: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Joint atmospheric + accelerator analysis

degeneracy with mass hierarchy

Page 22: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

TITUS: The Tokai Intermediate Tank with Unoscillated Spectrum

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Page 23: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

TITUS: The Tokai Intermediate Tank with Unoscillated Spectrum

Sinergia strategy meeting Bern, 10th July 2014

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Page 24: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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υ n → ℓ p

υ p → ℓ n

detect with GdεQ ≈ 88%

Page 25: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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mean εQ = 81%in the oscillation region Eυ<2GeV

Considering a magnetized muon range detector

Currently, 18% of μ escape the TITUS Cherenkov tank

Page 26: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Morgan Wascko

Page 27: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Page 28: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Page 29: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

nuPRISM

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Instead of calculating neutrino energy using the interaction models, use the flux model

Page 30: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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nuPRISM

Mike Wilking

Page 31: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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First steps with an imaginative analysis method

Mark Scott

Page 32: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

Hyper-Kamiokande Summary2018 start excavation, 2020 begin photo-sensor production, 2025 start taking data

Accelerator neutrinosExposure of 7.5 MW × 107 seconds (1.56×1022 POT with a 30 GeV proton beam)

• CP violation to more than 3σ (5σ) for 76% (58%) of δCP space

• δCP to better than 19°

Accelerator neutrinos>3σ on the mass hierarchy and the octant

Nucleon decay90% CL of 1035 years for p → e+π0 and 1034 years for p → υ K+

Astrophysical neutrinos200 8B υ / day, 200,000 υ / SN burst, xsec limit for solar WIMP annihilation

Near detector upgrade possibilitiesTITUS – identical near detector, optimized for charge ID

HP-TPC – good for studying multi-nucleon effects

nuPRISM – attempt to bypass nuclear model systematics

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Plenty of exciting physics!

Page 33: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Page 34: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Backup slides

Page 35: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Page 36: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Page 37: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Page 38: Sinergia strategy meeting of Swiss neutrino groups Mark A. Rayner – Université de Genève 10 th July 2014, Bern Hyper-Kamiokande 1 – 2 km detector Hyper-Kamiokande

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Experiments proposed in the 2020s

HK can measure the MH using atmospheric neutrinos

But we can assume that another experiment will already have measured it