SINALOA DRUG CARTEL V. Drug Enforcement Agency

Cocaine Trafficking Network within the United States

LT YoungLT FosterLT Carline

Primary means are private and commercial vehicles.

Favor particular routes to supply U.S drug markets.

Drug Movement Within the United States

Cocaine is widely available throughout the country.

Demand for illicit drugs in United States is rising.

Real World Problem

55125

48

50

MAJOR CITY DISTRIBUTION HUBS

Major city distribution hubs have a maximum limitation on the quantity of metric tons of cocaine which can remain in the city for distribution.

City’s demand for drugs is a function of its metro population and the total population of destination cities.

Metropolitan Demand

DESTINATION CITIES METRO POPULATION >1 MIL

DESTINATION CITIES 1 MIL>METRO POPULATION >500,000

DESTINATION CITIES METRO POPULATION<500,000

> 1 Million

.5-1 Million

> .5 Million

The cartel has well-developed transportation and distribution networks within the U.S.

Extensive network of cities to facilitate the the cartel’s trafficking operations within the U.S.

Destination cities represent the network nodes.

Network Operation

Interdictions by the Drug Enforcement Agency

Attacks for the cartel to use alternate routes for distribution of the supply to the final destination major city.

Attack

Maximize distribution

Maximize profit

Minimize interdiction

Max-Flow Model

Max Flow LP

Primal Dual

, ,,

, ,( , ) ( , )

, ,( , ) ( , )

, ,( , ) ( , )

, ,

max 1.1

. .0, ,

received i j i ji j

i s s i senti s s i

i t t i receivedi t t i

a i a a ii a a i

i j i j

V x Y

y y V

y y Vs t

y y a s t

Y u

, ,,

, ,

,

min

0 1.10

. .10

i j i ji j

j j i i j i j

s

t

i j

u

X

s t

278 metric tons

Overall expected seizure percentage is approximately 10%

Quantifications

Border seizures

Drug distribution to cities

Constant seizure rate

Model Assumptions

Abstract Network

Update 7 June 2007 19

Start SanDiego LA

End

Tucson

TUDAL Dallas

SDLA

interdiction plan with 0 Attacks:flow with interdictions in place = 251.2

interdiction plan with 1 Attacks: attack arc: San Diego -> LAflow with interdictions in place = 245.6

interdiction plan with 2 Attacks: attack arc: San Diego -> LA attack arc: San Diego -> DENflow with interdictions in place = 215.7

interdiction plan with 3 Attacks: attack arc: Laredo -> HOU attack arc: San Diego -> LA attack arc: San Diego -> DENflow with interdictions in place = 213.2

interdiction plan with 4 Attacks: attack arc: Chicago -> NY attack arc: Jacksonville -> NY attack arc: SanDiego -> LA attack arc: Tucson -> PHXflow with interdictions in place = 206.7

interdiction plan with 5 Attacks: attack arc: Chicago -> NY attack arc: ElPaso -> HOU attack arc: Jacksonville -> NY attack arc: Laredo -> HOU attack arc: SanDiego -> LAflow with interdictions in place = 197.9

interdiction plan with 6 Attacks: attack arc: Chicago -> NY attack arc: ElPaso -> HOU attack arc: Jacksonville -> NY attack arc: Laredo -> HOU attack arc: SanDiego -> LA attack arc: Tucson -> PHXflow with interdictions in place = 176.8

Operator Resilience Curve

0 2 4 6 8 10 12110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

Total Metric Tons of Cocaine Received

Number of Attacks

Tota

l Met

ric T

ons

SanDieg

o

Phoeni

x

LosAng

eles

Chica

go

Housto

n

NewYor

kDall

asSea

ttleDetr

oitElP

aso

Washing

tonDC

Jackso

nville

Tucson

Lared

oDen

ver

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Potential Cocaine DemandM

etric

ton

s

SanDieg

o

Phoeni

x

LosAng

eles

Chica

go

Housto

n

NewYor

kDall

asSea

ttleDetr

oitElP

aso

Washing

tonDC

Jackso

nville

Tucson

Lared

oDen

ver

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

No AttacksM

etric

ton

s

SanDieg

o

Phoeni

x

LosAng

eles

Chica

go

Housto

n

NewYor

kDall

asSea

ttleDetr

oitElP

aso

Washing

tonDC

Jackso

nville

Tucson

Lared

oDen

ver

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 AttackM

etric

ton

s

SanDieg

o

Phoeni

x

LosAng

eles

Chica

go

Housto

n

NewYor

kDall

asSea

ttleDetr

oitElP

aso

Washing

tonDC

Jackso

nville

Tucson

Lared

oDen

ver

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2 AttacksM

etric

ton

s

SanDieg

o

Phoeni

x

LosAng

eles

Chica

go

Housto

n

NewYor

kDall

asSea

ttleDetr

oitElP

aso

Washing

tonDC

Jackso

nville

Tucson

Lared

oDen

ver

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

3 AttacksM

etric

ton

s

SanDieg

o

Phoeni

x

LosAng

eles

Chica

go

Housto

n

NewYor

kDall

asSea

ttleDetr

oitElP

aso

Washing

tonDC

Jackso

nville

Tucson

Lared

oDen

ver

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

4 AttacksM

etric

ton

s

SanDieg

o

Phoeni

x

LosAng

eles

Chica

go

Housto

n

NewYor

kDall

asSea

ttleDetr

oitElP

aso

Washing

tonDC

Jackso

nville

Tucson

Lared

oDen

ver

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

5 AttacksM

etric

ton

s

SanDieg

o

Phoeni

x

LosAng

eles

Chica

go

Housto

n

NewYor

kDall

asSea

ttleDetr

oitElP

aso

Washing

tonDC

Jackso

nville

Tucson

Lared

oDen

ver

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

6 AttacksM

etric

ton

s

SanDieg

o

Phoeni

x

LosAng

eles

Chica

go

Housto

n

NewYor

kDall

asSea

ttleDetr

oitElP

aso

Washing

tonDC

Jackso

nville

Tucson

Lared

oDen

ver

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Metric Tons Received per City

0 attacks1 attack2 attacks3 attacks4 attacks5 attacks6 attacks

All cases: Maximize Chicago, Dallas, Detroit

If no pending attacks, maximize Los Angeles

1-3 attacks, maximize Houston, New York

4-6 attacks maximize Washington DC

Recommendations for El Chapo

Fails to display all possible transit paths for the cartel, i.e. back roads.

Does not account for the time for the routes to transit drugs

Does not account for alternative methods such as noncommercial vessels, ultralight aircraft, freight trains, and tunnels

LIMITATIONS OF ANALYSIS

Smuggling routes within Mexico

Production of the drugs within the United States

Drug distribution operations gangs migrating to areas in Great Lakes, Pacific, and west central regions to expand drug distribution

FUTURE WORK

National Drug Threat Assessment 2011◦ National Drug Intelligence Center◦www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs44/44849/44849p.pdf 

www.justice.gov/dea

REFERENCES

QUESTIONS?