Simulation of Infectious Diseases Using Agent-Based Versus System Dynamics Models

Omar Alam

Problem definition

People contract diseases. Infected people can can infect healthy people.

How to study this infection dynamics?

Problem definition

People contract diseases. Infected people can can infect healthy people.

How to study this infection dynamics?Simulation of infection models

Solution!

AB: Statecharts FSD using CBD

Epidemic models

Source: Deterministic Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Theory and Models. Trottier et al.

SIR model

Source: Deterministic Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Theory and Models. Trottier et al.

SIR model

Kermack-Mckendric model

Used to study plaque in London (1665-1666), and Bombay in 1906.

Cholera in London 1865

SIR model

Source: http://blog.iseesystems.com/stella-ithink/limits-to-growth/

SIR model

Source: http://jsxgraph.uni-bayreuth.de/wiki/index.php/Epidemiology:_The_SIR_model

Beta: infection rateAlpha: infection period

SIR model

SIR model

S

I

R

SNSM2SM1

Infection rate

Initial population

Initial infected

INIA

Recovery rateRM

SIR model

Population: 1000, Initial infection 4, Infection period: 3, infection rate 0.2

Statecharts approach

Statecharts approach: architecture

Statecharts approach: architecture

ControllerController

Statecharts approach: architecture

ControllerController

Creates, initializes, and changes status

Statecharts approach: architecture

ControllerController

Creates, initializes, and changes status

Updates location

Statecharts approach: results

Population: 1000, initial infection 4, infection period 3

susceptibleinfected

recovered

Statecharts approach: results

Population: 500, initial infection 2, infection period 3