Signature (unit, name, etc.). Climate change and Hydrological impact modeling: achievements and challenges 气候变化与水资源模拟 : 进展与挑战 Dept of Geosciences, University

Signature (unit, name, etc.)


Climate change and Hydrological impact

modeling: achievements and challenges

气候变化与水资源模拟 : 进展与挑战

Dept of Geosciences, University of OsloChongyu Xu http://folk.uio.no/chongyux/

Chongyu Xu 许崇育University of Oslo

Chong-yu Xu

Lecture at

许崇育挪威奥斯陆大学


Where can you find me?


If you have the following problems

Too much water – flood

Too little water – drought

Pollution

Erosion


Issues in catchment management

• Water resources management– Water supply, hydropower– Irrigation and drainage– Social, economic, environmental

• Flood management– Flood forecasting, risk analysis,

damage analyses– Planning of protective and

controlling structures (dams, dikes, gates)

– Optimization of the reservoir system (maximize the profit)

– Dam break scenarios

• Water quality management– Waste water purification & outlets– Reservoirs– Toxic and harmful releases– Eutrophication

• Watershed erosion management– Agricultural & forestry practices– Ecosystem conservation

• Sediment management– Reservoirs,– Morphological changes– Dredging

• Land use management– Urban development,– Agriculture & forestry practices– Re-settlement– Infrastructure planning– Social, cultural, and economic

interests


• Catchment management is to find best solution and balance between:

– Water available (quantity, quality)– Water demand (quantity, quality)– Water transportation/delivety/use efficiency– Others

• Water logging and salinization, flooding, etc.• erosion and sediment load, etc.

• Sustainable management means that the solution we made and the balance we achieved have no negative effect to our next generations.

Catchment managementhydrologic view


Climate system:Precipitation, temperature, etc

Hydrologic system:Watershed, streams, etc

Water availability

Reservoirs: Water control

Regulatory requirements

Natural system requirements

Human requirements

Water control

Water supply & allocation

Climate model

Hydrological model

Water managementModel

Hydraulic constructions: dam, reservoirs, etc

Components of catchment management systems


Application of hydrologic models

DESIGN OPERATION MANAGEMENT RESEARCH &TEACHING

Dams & reservoirs design water yield capacity, failure

Floods frequency mapping

Urbanization storm drains flood plains channel alterations

Irrigation & drainage water yield diversions

Water resources assessment

Land-use change

Climate change

Point nonpointPollution

Groundwater recharge

Flow forecasting

Reservoir control

Urban storm draincontrol

University training

Industrial training

Research


• Background

– Climate will change (or has been changing) due to greenhouse effect,

– Availability and variability of regional water resources will be affected,

– GCMs have been used as the only available tool for modeling future climate evolution,

– There are gaps between GCMs ability and hydrology need.


What a GCM looks like?


• Inputs: Main forcings or boundary conditions:1 Solar radiation

2 Atmospheric composition

(gases, H2O, CO2, O3, and aerosols)

3 Surface characteristics (albedo, roughness,…)

Inputs and outputs of climate models

• Outputs: climatologic and hydrologic variables:1 Temperature, pressure,

wind,

2 Humidity, cloudness, precipitation,

3 Runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture

Accuracy

declines


What a hydrological model looks like?

Lumped model

Semi-distributed


What a hydrological model looks like?


Spatial mismatch between GCM and hydrological models



GCMs ability increases

Hydrological importance increases

Gaps between GCM ability and Gaps between GCM ability and hydrological demandhydrological demand

Better Simulated

WorkingVariable

mismatch

Wind speedTemperatureAir pressure

PrecipitationCloudiness

Humidity

RunoffSoil moistureEvaporation

VerticalScale

mismatch500 hPa 800 hPa

EarthSurface

SpatialScales

mismatch

Global300*300 Km

Regional50*50 Km

Local0-50 Km

TemporalScales

mismatch

Meanannual

Meanmonthly

Daily orshorter

Ability

Gaps

Less-wellSimulated

Not-wellSimulated

New models

Macro-scale hydrological

models

Statistical downscaling

Dynamic & statistical

downscaling

Bucket – SVAT


LWBM

Routing

MLHM

CHM

CHM

Hydrologic modeling

Deltachange

Deltachange

Deltachange

Regional Climate scenario

Wat

er r

eso

urc

es s

cen

ario

s

RCM

RCM

Statistical downscaling

Dynamic downscaling

RCMDynamic downscaling

Dynamic downscaling

Hypothetic

Downscaling

Hydrological modeling under changing Hydrological modeling under changing climateclimate

Emissionscenarios

GCM

GCM


Signature (unit, name, etc.)Landuse Change

Assessment of climate change impact on water resources management


• My work in modeling– Development and application of

hydrological models• Global and continental scales water

balance modeling• Catchment scale water balance

modeling• Hillslope and local scales physically

based storm-runoff modeling


Average annual runoff in China.

Average annual runoff in Northern Europe.

Global Mean annual runoff

Example results of Global water balance model


Example results of catchment modeling – subtropical catchments

Subtropical monsoon catchments in Southern China

Modeled actual evapotranspiration

Modeled soil moisture


Example results of storm floods modelling

Model structure:•Fully distributed•DEM and GIS supported•Physically-based differential equations:

Overland flow - St. Venant equations Channel routing - kinematic wave and

Manning’s equation Groundwater flow - continuity equation and

Darcy’s law


Thank you!

http://folk.uio.no/chongyux/



许崇育教授简历

• 许崇育 , 博士 , 教授 . 挪威奥斯陆大学地球科学系– 主要从事的研究领域 :

• 不同气候区域和不同时空尺度的水文模型的建立和应用• 水文模型参数估计和不确定性检验方法的研究• 流域蒸发能力和区域实际蒸发计算方法的研究• 气候变化及其对水资源与水环境的影响的研究

– 获奖 , 荣誉及兼职 :• 世界气象组织杰出青年科学家奖• 中科院海外评审专家• 南京大学城市与资源系兼职教授• 武汉大学水文与水资源系兼职教授• 中科院海外杰出人才• 中国科学院北京地理资源所兼职教授• 国际水文科学杂志编委

个人网页 : http://folk.uio.no/chongyux/

奥斯陆大学

Documents

Signature (unit, name, etc.). Climate change and Hydrological impact modeling: achievements and challenges 气候变化与水资源模拟 : 进展与挑战 Dept of Geosciences, University