Sick - US and PG

8/13/2019 Sick - US and PG

1/23

[The Persian Gulf in History, ed. Lawrence G. Potter, New York: Palgrave,2009, pp. 295-310]

Date: Tue, 12 Jun 2007 10:09:28 -0400

From: Lawrence Potter


2/23

$n 6ran, t/e D/a/ran #ae, etc% Per/a a re% to ?ruce @un$/olm #oo+

woul&

#e aror$ate% ; l$ttle more a#out t/e =* an& t/e 6ran$an reolut$on

$ alo

$n or&er% 6 real$Ae t/at t/ee t/$ng are eten$el) coere&

elew/ere, #ut

ome o t/$ treatment $ too curor)% 6 )ou want to a) an)t/$ng

a#out t/e =*

role a comare& to t/e ?r$t$/, t/at woul& #e ueul $n t)$ng $t to

t/e

rece&$ng c/ater #) Jo/n Peteron%

Be-rea&$ng t/e aer now ma) $n$re urt/er $&ea or re$$on% .ou

#r$ng t/e

tu&) to a cleer cloe w$t/ t/e ?u/ &e#ate ecert rom t/e 2000

cama$gn%

T/at certa$nl) ma+e ene, #ut a man) eole w$ll #e rea&$ng t/$

#oo+ a

&eca&e later, $t woul& #e great $ )ou coul& cont$nue w$t/ a ew

aragra/ to

#r$ng u cloer to t/e reent% ;ga$n, t/e &eta$l are not $mortant,

$t $ t/e

long $ew t/at $ +e) /ere an& t/at $ t/e mot &$$cult or

contemorar)

o#erer to &$cern%

6 woul& arec$ate $t $ )ou coul& go oer t/$ once more an& let me

+now o

an) c/ange% 6t /oul& not ta+e muc/ t$me, #ut o#$oul) )ou can $t $t

$n to

)our c/e&ule w/eneer conen$ent%

For me, t/$ $ t/e *ummer o t/e ?oo+ an& 6 trut t/ere w$ll #e no

am$l)

trage&$e% 6 am wor+$ng $nten$el) w$t/ t/e ar$ou aut/or an& eectto

comlete all t/e c/ater e&$t$ng oer t/e ummer% 6 lan to #e /ere

wor+$ng on

t/$ ecet or a $$t to (reece at t/e en& o Jul) an& earl) ;ugut

or t/e

=CL; conerence%

2


3/23

6 +now $t $ a a$n to re$$t earl$er wor+ o man) t/an+% >e w$ll

/ae a

great olume

Larr)

Chapter 15

The United States and the Persian Gulf in the Twentieth Century

(ar) *$c+

[F$rt E&$t, 12 June 2007

6t too+ /al a centur) or t/e =n$te& *tate to #ecome t/e maor ower $n t/e Per$an

(ul, an& t/at roce wa c/aracter$Ae& #) ea$on, $n&ec$$on, an& general reluctance to get

$nole&% 6n$t$all) &rawn $n &ur$ng t/e *econ& >orl& >ar to rotect t/e ;ll$eG ul) l$ne to

t/e *o$et =n$on, t/e =n$te& *tate t/en w$t/&rew $rtuall) all $t m$l$tar) orce or more t/an a

generat$on, content to leae commerce $n t/e /an& o t/e g$ant o$l $rm +nown a t/e *een

*$ter an& mot reg$onal ecur$t) reon$#$l$t$e to t/e m$n$trat$on o $t eer$ence& an& well

eta#l$/e& ?r$t$/ all)%1

Een w/en t/e ?r$t$/ w$t/&rew $n 1971$n 1971, t/e =n$te& *tate &$& not $mme&$atel)

ru/ to $ll t/e acuum, contruct$ng $ntea& an unuual ro) arrangement w$t/ 6ran an&

nom$nall) *au&$ ;ra#$a to $ll t/e ga% >/en t/at, $n turn, collae&ater $n t/e 6ran$anan

reolut$on, t/e =n$te& *tate #egan to #u$l& a m$l$tar) $nratructure $n t/e reg$on, a roce t/atac5u$re& $t $metu rom t/e $nternat$onal$Aat$on o t/e 6ran-6ra5 war $n t/e m$&-1980% ?ut $t

wa not unt$l t/e 6ra5$ $na$on o @uwa$t $n 1991 t/at t/e =n$te& *tate $ntro&uce& maor orce

$nto t/e reg$on t/at eeme& &et$ne& to g$e $t a &om$nant, uta$ne& reence%

T/roug/out, =%*% $nteret $n t/e Per$an (ul reg$on were $mle an& con$tent,

conce$e& rom t/e tart $n glo#al, trateg$c term: $rt, to enure acce #) t/e $n&utr$al$Ae&

1T/e ?r$t$/ certa$nl) $ewe& t/e =n$te& *tate a a otent$al r$al to t/e$r &om$nant $nluence $nt/e reg$on% T/$ wa art$cularl) true ollow$ng >orl& >ar 66, a t/e =n$te& *tate #egan toarec$ate t/e trateg$c $mortance o o$l, a t/e Per$an (ul emerge& a a cr$t$cal ector $n t/eglo#al &octr$ne o conta$nment o t/e *o$et =n$on, an& a ?r$t$/ ower #egan to wane% Dur$ngt/$ er$o&, ?r$ta$n maneuere& 5u$te ucceull) to $nure t/at =%*% ol$t$cal reence $n t/ereg$on &$& not matc/ $t grow$ng econom$c an& m$l$tar) m$g/t% T/e =n$te& *tate wa omew/atrutrate& w$t/ t/ee tact$c, #ut $t rooun& rel$ance on t/e =@ a a trateg$c #ulwar+ trume&an) ol$t$cal am#$t$on unt$l well ater t/e ?r$t$/ w$t/&rawal $n 1971% For a cloe loo+ at art ot/$ roce, ee Boemar$e *a$& Ha/lan, I;nglo-;mer$can B$alr) $n ?a/ra$n, 1918-1947, $n*/a$+/ ;#&ulla/ #$n @/al$& al-@/al$a an& $c/ael B$ce, e&%,Bahrain Through the Ages:The HistoryLon&on:,@egan Paul 6nternat$onal, 1993,, %!K7-!87%

3


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worl& to t/e at o$l reource o t/e reg$on an& econ&, to reent an) /ot$le ower rom

ac5u$r$ng ol$t$cal or m$l$tar) control oer t/oe reource% Dur$ng t/e col& war, t/e *o$et

=n$on wa een a t/e mot $mme&$ate t/reat to t/oe $nteret ater t/e *o$et collae, 6ran

an& 6ra5 #ecame t/e r$mar) target o =%*% conta$nment eort%

t/er o#ect$e, uc/ a reer$ng t/e ta#$l$t) an& $n&een&ence o t/e (ul tate or

conta$n$ng t/e t/reat o 6lam$c ra&$cal$m, were &er$at$e concern an& were $ml$c$t $n t/e two

gran& t/eme o o$l an& conta$nment% Preoccuat$on w$t/ t/e ecur$t) o 6rael wa alo a &r$$ng

actor $n =%*% $&&le Eat ol$c) &ur$ng t/e /al centur) o ;mer$caGnrogre$e

entanglement $n t/e Per$an (ul, an& t/ee two arena $nteracte& w$t/ eac/ ot/er &e$te /ero$c

eort #) >a/$ngton to reten& t/at t/e) were earate an& unrelate& $ue%

For mot o t/e twent$et/ centur), t/e =n$te& *tate regar&e& t/e (ul almot eclu$el)

$n t/e contet o $t glo#al r$alr) w$t/ t/e *o$et =n$on, an& reg$onal &eeloment were

erce$e& t/roug/ t/e len o larger trateg$c o#ect$e% T/$ /ele& to ma$nta$n t/e $ct$on t/ato$l an& Palet$ne coul& #e earate&, $nce eac/ wa un&ertoo& to la) a &$erent role $n t/e

glo#al truggle% oweer, w/en t/e *o$et =n$on wa u#tracte& rom t/e e5uat$on ater t/e en&

o t/e col& war, >a/$ngton $ncrea$ngl) came to $ew t/e $&&le Eat $n urel) reg$onal term,

an& t/at art$$c$al &$t$nct$on #egan to eaorate%

T/e low unol&$ng o =%*% ol$c) contr$#ute& to an& occa$onall) wa t/e $ct$m o t/e

&eeloment o t/e mo&ern Per$an (ul% T/e w/ole tor) $ more t/an t/$ c/ater can /oe to

tell% 6ntea&, t/$ account w$ll ocu on a ew +e) turn$ng o$nt, w/ere eem$ngl) unrelate& =%*%

ol$c) c/o$ce eentuall) reole& t/emele $nto an $mer$al reence t/at t/e $mer$um $tel

/a& carcel) ant$c$ate&%

T/e Tw$n P$llarPol$c)

Pr$or to >orl& >ar 66, =%*% $nolement $n t/e Per$an (ul wa m$n$mal% T/e $rt uta$ne&

encounter w$t/ t/e reg$on wa $n t/e n$neteent/ centur), $n t/e &a) o t/e great cl$er /$%2

T/e =n$te& *tate regar&e& t/e Per$an (ul an& 6n&$an cean a a ?r$t$/ reere, an& =%*%

ol$t$cal, commerc$al, an& m$l$tar) contact w$t/ t/e reg$on wa $nre5uent%3

2T/ee earl) contact le& to a treat) w$t/ t/e ultanate o ucat an& man $n 1833, w/$c/ $t$ll recalle& on occa$on o tate w$t/ man%3T/e ollow$ng comment &raw on t/e aut/orG earl$er reearc/ u#l$/e&, inter alia, $n: IT/eEolut$on o =%*% *trateg) Towar& t/e 6n&$an cean an& Per$an (ul Beg$on, $n ;l$n H%Bu#$nte$n, e&%, The Great Game: Rivalry in the Persian Gulf and South AsiaMew .or+: ,Praeger, 1983, , % 49N80an& IOT/e =n$te& *tate $n t/e Per$an (ul: From Tw$n P$llar toDual Conta$nmentO$n Da$& >% Lec/, e&%, The Middle East and the United States: AHistorical and Political Reassessment, 3r&e&% $t$on, ?oul&er, C: >et$ew Pre, 2003,, %291-307%

4


5/23

T/e =%*% $&&le Eat Comman& wa eta#l$/e& &ur$ng >orl& >ar 66 to oeree t/e

ul) route o war mater$el to t/e *o$et =n$on% 6t 40,000 =%*% troo cont$tute& t/e larget

=%*% &elo)ment to t/e reg$on rom t/at t$me unt$l erat$on Deert *torm $n 1991% T/e mall

=%*% naal cont$ngent $&&le Eat Force t/at wa eta#l$/e& $n 1947 rel$e& on ?r$t$/

/o$tal$t) at Jua$r on ?a/ra$n 6lan&%

T/e ?r$t$/ announcement $n 19K8 t/at $t $nten&e& to w$t/&raw rom $t /$tor$c o$t$on

eat o *ueA came a an unwelcome /oc+ $n >a/$ngton, w/$c/ /a& long rel$e& on t/e ?r$t$/

reence a an eent$al comonent o $t *o$et conta$nment trateg) along t/e $mmene arc

rom t/e *ueA Canal to t/e *tra$t o alacca*tra$t% 6t alo came at t/e wort o$#le moment,

$nce =%*% orce were $ncrea$ngl) tra$ne& #) comm$tment $n $etnam an& *out/eat ;$a%

>/en t/e M$on a&m$n$trat$on too+ o$ce $n 19K9, $t un&ertoo+ a comre/en$e re$ew

o =%*% Per$an (ul ol$c)% T/$ wa art o a glo#al eort to re&e$ne =%*% ecur$t) $nteret ata t$me o comet$ng &eman& on =%*% m$l$tar) orce an& a grow$ng reluctance #) t/e ;mer$can

u#l$c to uort w/at were een a otent$all) cotl) ore$gn comm$tment% T/e outcome o t/$

re$ew wa t/e M$on Doctr$ne, w/$c/ lace& r$mar) rel$ance on ecur$t) cooerat$on w$t/

reg$onal tate a a mean o rotect$ng =%*% $nteret aroun& t/e worl&% 6n t/e (ul, $t wa

&ec$&e& to rel) /ea$l) on t/e two +e) tate o 6ran an& *au&$ ;ra#$a, a trateg) t/at 5u$c+l)

#ecame +nown a t/e ITw$n P$llar ol$c)%4

From t/e #eg$nn$ng, $t wa recogn$Ae& t/at 6ran woul& #e t/e more u#tant$al o t/e two

I$llar #ecaue o $t $Ae, $t m$l$tar) caa#$l$t$e, $t /)$cal utao$t$on #etween t/e *o$et

=n$on an& t/e Per$an (ul, an& t/e w$ll$ngne o t/e /a/ unl$+e t/e ;ra# tate lea&er o t/ereg$on to cooerate oenl) w$t/ t/e =n$te& *tate on ecur$t) matter% T/$ er) ec$al

relat$on/$ #etween >a/$ngton an& Te/ran wa eale& $n a) 1972 &ur$ng t/e $$t to Te/ran

o Pre$&ent M$on an& /$ nat$onal ecur$t) a&$er, enr) @$$nger%

6n two an& one-/al /our o conerat$on oer two &a), a &eal wa truc+ $n w/$c/ t/e

=n$te& *tate agree& to $ncreae t/e num#ero un$orme& a&$er $n 6ran an& guarantee& t/e

/a/ acce to ome o t/e mot o/$t$cate& non-nuclear tec/nolog) $n t/e =%*% m$l$tar)

arenal% T/e /a/, $n return, agree& to accet a +e) role $n rotect$ng >etern $nteret $n t/e

Per$an (ul reg$on% ;ll o t/$ wa umme& u w$t/ tartl$ng can&or at t/e en& o t/e meet$ng,

w/en Pre$&ent M$on loo+e& acro t/e ta#le to t/e /a/ an& a$& $ml), IProtect me%!

4For a more &eta$le& account o t/$ er$o&, ee $c/ael ;% Palmer, Guardians of the Gulf: TheGroth of American !nvolvement in the Persian Gulf" #$%%''#Mew .or+: , Free Pre,1992%[(ar)- ) co) o t/$ #oo+, an& t/e one $n t/e C= l$#rar), carr) a &$erent u#t$tle- I;$tor) o ;mer$caG Ean&$ng Bole $n t/e Per$an (ul, 1833-1992% Do )ou /ae a &$erente&$t$on Pleae rec/ec+

!


6/23

T/$ moment wa t/e culm$nat$on o eeral &eca&e o tumultuou ol$t$cal relat$on

#etween t/e =n$te& *tate an& 6ran% T/e oert/row o o/amme& oa&&e5 $n 6ran $n 19!3 wa

argua#l) one o t/e +e) turn$ng o$nt $n twent$et/ centur) $&&le Eat ol$t$c% 6t cut /ort a

nat$onal$t eer$ment, returne& t/e /a/ to t/e t/rone, &emontrate& a w$ll$ngne an& a#$l$t) o

t/e =n$te& *tate $n colla#orat$on w$t/ t/e ?r$t$/ to $nterene $n t/e aa$r o a maor tate $n

t/e reg$on an& $na&ertentl) la$& t/e groun&wor+ or t/e 6ran$an reolut$on a 5uarter o a centur)

later%K

6n a er) real ene, t/$ eent mar+e& t/e lo o ;mer$caG ol$t$cal $nnocence $n t/e

reg$on% =nt$l t/at t$me, t/e =n$te& *tate wa regar&e&, $n 6ran an& elew/ere $n t/e reg$onarea,

a an eent$all) ant$-colon$al ower an& otent$al #ulwar+ aga$nt t/e re&at$on o ?r$ta$n an&

Bu$a, t/e c)n$cal rotagon$t o t/e (reat (ame% T/e oa&&e5 Icounter cou &emontrate&

t/at t/e =n$te& *tate coul& #e ut a el-er$ng an& man$ulat$e a t/e ot/er eternal ower

w/en $t own $nteret were erce$e& to #e at ta+e% T/ere wa one &$erence, /oweer%

>/erea t/e ?r$t$/ $n 19!3 were concerne& r$mar$l) a#out reer$ng t/e$r o$l r$g/t, t/e=n$te& *tate wa more concerne& a#out t/e erce$e& t/reat o *o$et ol$t$cal $nroa& $nto 6ran%

?) t/$ act, t/e =n$te& *tate guarantee& t/at $t woul& #e /el& ermanentl) reon$#leQ

at leat #) 6ran$an oular o$n$onQor t/e 6ran$an rulerG ecee an& cruelt$e% 6n 19K3, a

$er) rel$g$ou lea&er, Bu/olla/ @/ome$n$, le& t/e oo$t$on to a #$ll t/at, among ot/er t/$ng,

eten&e& &$lomat$c rotect$on to ;mer$can m$l$tar) a&$er% T/$ re#ell$on, w/$c/ $n retroect

wa a re/earal or t/e reolut$on o 1978N1979, le& to @/ome$n$G e$le or ourteen )ear%

;lt/oug/ mot ;mer$can were carcel) aware o t/$ $nc$&ent, t/e 6ran$an oo$t$on wa

con$nce& t/at t/e /a/ wa act$ng on #e/al o t/e =n$te& *tate%

T/e agreement #etween Pre$&ent M$on an& t/e /a/ $n 1972 un&ercore& t/e act t/at

6ran wa no mere Icl$ent tate o t/e =n$te& *tate% tranorme& t/e re$ou cl$ent relat$on/$%

[(ar)- er/a t/$ $ too ac$le% BamaAan$ ma+e t/e o$nt $n an ecellent EJ art$cle >$nter

1982 t/at t/e /a/ ue& u a muc/ a we ue& /$m, o t/e $&ea t/at 6ran wa our Icl$ent nee&

to #e 5ual$$e&% 6ran wa on t/e #r$n+ o #ecom$ng a maor ower $n t/e o$l mar+et an& now /a&

ree acce to t/e =%*% arenal o mo&ern weaonr)% T/$ wa ormall) ac+nowle&ge& w$t/ 6ran

#ecom$ng t/e rotector o =%*% $nteret $n t/e reg$on, an& t/e /a/ $ncrea$ngl) elt em#ol&ene&

to lecture /$ great ower all) on ol$t$c, econom$c, an& trateg)% T/e =n$te& *tate $n turn

re&uce& $t $ntell$gence coerage o 6ranG $nternal ol$t$c an& rel$e& on t/e /a/ or a$tance:

$n utt$ng &own t/e ar$t re#ell$on $n D/oar or an aure& energ) ul) at t/e t$me o t/e

o$l em#argo o 1973 an& or uort $n a w$&e range o ol$t$cal an& m$l$tar) oerat$on rang$ng

!; &eta$le& account o t/$ e$o&e an& $t $ml$cat$on can #e oun& $n (ar) *$c+,All (all)on: America*s Tragic Encounter ith !ran,Mew .or+: Ban&om oue, 198!,% 14%

KFor the most complete and succinct history and analysis of this event, See Mark Gasiorowski

and Malcolm Byrne, eds.,Mohammad Mosaddeq and the 1953 Coup in Iran(Syracuse, NY: ,

Syracuse University Press, 2004).

K


7/23

rom t/e $&&le Eat an& ;r$ca to a ar awa) a $etnam%6ran /a& #ecome t/e $rrelacea#le

l)nc/$n o =%*% trateg) $n t/e Per$an (ul%

T/$ role reeral, /oweer, went almot unnot$ce& $n t/e Per$an (ul an& elew/ere% 6n

6ran, t/e $mage o a coml$ant /a/ reon&$ng to or&er &$ctate& $n >a/$ngton rema$ne&

$$&l) $mlante& $n t/e nat$onal )c/e% ; a cone5uence, w/en t/e reolut$on elo&e& $n t/e

late 1970, t/e =n$te& *tate /a& t/e wort o #ot/ worl&% 6t /a& rel$n5u$/e& muc/ o $t

$n&een&ent caac$t) to ae an& $nluence 6ranG $nternal ol$t$c, #ut $t wa oularl)

uecte& o orc/etrat$ng eer) moe #) t/e /a/G reg$me%

>a/$ngtonG coA) relat$on/$ w$t/ t/e /a/ alo $nole& a tr$art$te coert act$on w$t/

6rael to &eta#$l$Ae 6ra5 #) uort$ng a @ur&$/ re#ell$on aga$nt ?ag/&a&% T/$ lan wa

a&ote& $n a) 1972 &ur$ng t/e M$on-@$$nger $$t $t collae& $n 197! w/en t/e /a/

un$laterall) truc+ a #or&er agreement w$t/ *a&&am ue$n an& a#an&one& t/e @ur&% De$te

$t trag$c element, t/$ ecret war eta#l$/e& a rece&ent or $ew$ng t/e Per$an (ul a aneten$on o t/e ;ra#-6rael conl$ct an& or =%*%-6rael$ cooerat$on $n t/e reg$on%7

T/e collae o t/e /a/G reg$me $n Fe#ruar) 1979 wa t/e &eat/ +nell or t/e =%*%

[*$nce $t $ o $mortant, a aragra/ a#out t/e =* role $n t/e 6ran$an reolut$on woul& #e

aror$ate /ere% Tw$n P$llar ol$c)% T/e =n$te& *tate, w/$c/ at t/e t$me wa loc+e& $n a /$g/-

r$+ eort to negot$ate a eace ettlement #etween 6rael an& t/e Palet$n$an, watc/e& t/e /a/G

collae w$t/ mount$ng &$ma)% >a/$ngton $ue& er$o&$c u#l$c an& r$ate tatement $n

uort o t/e /a/, #ut ult$matel) rel$e& almot ent$rel) on t/e /a/ to recue /$ nat$on rom a

ma$e oular reolt le& #) ;)atolla/ @/ome$n$ an& 6ran$an cler$c% ?ot/ t/e =n$te& *tate

an& t/e /a/ eeme& $ncaa#le o un&ertan&$ng w/at wa /aen$ng or mo#$l$A$ng t/e ol$c)$ntrument t/at m$g/t /alt t/e collae o t/e reg$me% ?) t/e t$me $t #ecame clear $n >a/$ngton

t/at t/e /a/ wa $ncaa#le o act$ng &ec$$el), $t wa too late% From t/e From t/e#eg$nn$ng,

=%*%t/eol$c) /a& #een re&$cate& on a cloe eronal relat$on/$ #etween t/e ;mer$can

lea&er/$ an& t/e /a/% >$t/ /$ &earture an& t/e arr$al o a /ot$le 6lam$t reg$me $n Te/ran,

t/e =n$te& *tate wa let trateg$call) na+e& $n t/e Per$an (ul, w$t/ no aet) net%

T/e Carter Doctr$ne

76rael$-6ran$an relat$on are &$cue& $n &eta$l $n Trita Parsi, Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealingsof Israel, Iran, and the United States, New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2007, 23, 53-4.For a moremore &eta$le& &$cu$on o =%*%-6rael$ relat$on, account, ee Jame ;% ?$ll, The Eagle and the+ion: The Tragedy of American,!ranian RelationsMew aen:" .ale =n$er$t) Pre, 1988, ,% 204N208% 6rael /a& a well-&eeloe& trateg), +nown a t/e Doctr$ne o t/e Per$/er), tooutlan+ $t /ot$le ;ra# ne$g/#or #) romot$ng relat$on w$t/ non-;ra# tate on t/e r$nge ot/e conl$ct% 6n t/e cae o 6ran, t/$ too+ t/e orm o a er) cloe trateg$c relat$on/$ or moret/an twent) )ear%

7


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9/23

eect$el) comlete& t/e traner o ol$c) reon$#$l$t) $n t/e Per$an (ul rom t/e ?r$t$/ to

t/e ;mer$can%

>/en Carter ma&e t/$ tatement, $t relecte& =%*% $ntent$on rat/er t/an caa#$l$t$e% ?)

t/e t$me t/e Beagan a&m$n$trat$on arr$e& $n >a/$ngton $n Januar) 1981, $t woul& /ae #een

accurate to a) t/at t/e =%*% ecur$t) tructure $n t/e Per$an (ul reg$on wa more )m#ol t/an

real$t)Qat leat a meaure& $n urel) m$l$tar) caac$t)%9Meert/ele, $t wa e5uall) aarent

t/at t/e &eeloment o 1980 mar+e& a maor t/re/ol& $n t/e eolut$on o =%*% trateg) an& a

new con$ct$on t/at t/$ reg$on rereente& a maor trateg$c Aone o =%*% $tal $nteret,

&eman&$ng #ot/ uta$ne& attent$on at t/e /$g/et leel o =%*% ol$c)ma+$ng an& &$rect =%*%

engagement $n uort o ec$$call) =%*% $nteret% T/at wa w$t/out rece&ent%

T/e Beagan a&m$n$trat$on a&ote& t/e Carter Doctr$ne N $n act, $ not $n name N an&

oer t/e ollow$ng een )ear uccee&e& $n utt$ng more u#tant$al m$l$tar) ower an&

organ$Aat$on #e/$n& $t wor&% T/e Ba$& Delo)ment Jo$nt Ta+ Force BDJTF wareorgan$Ae& $n 1983 a a un$$e& comman& +nown a t/e Central Comman&, #ae& at acD$ll

;$r Force ?ae $n Tama, Flor$&a, w$t/ earmar+e& orce total$ng ome 230,000 m$l$tar)

eronnel rom t/e our er$ce% 6t #a$c m$$on relecte& t/e two t/eme t/at /a& woun&

t/roug/ =%*% reg$onal ol$c) rom t/e er) #eg$nn$ng: Ito aure cont$nue& acce to Per$an

(ul o$l an& to reent t/e *o$et rom ac5u$r$ng ol$t$cal-m$l$tar) control &$rectl) or t/roug/

ro$e%

T/e 6ran-6ra5 >ar 1980N198810

De$te t/e /a&ow o *o$et m$l$tar) ower, all /)$cal t/reat to o$l ul$e an& to reg$onalta#$l$t) came not rom Bu$a an& $t all$e #ut rom ol$t$cal &eeloment w$t/$n t/e reg$on%

T/e $rt o t/ee wa t/e ;ra# o$l #o)cott at t/e t$me o t/e ;ra#- 6rael$ war o 1973, w/$c/

nearl) tr$le& t/e r$ce o o$l an& ent >etern econom$e $nn$ng $nto a er$ou rece$on% T/e

econ& wa t/e 6ran$an reolut$on, an& t/e t/$r& wa t/e 6ran-6ra5 war, w/$c/ 6ra5 launc/e& w$t/

a ma$e $na$on $n *etem#er 1980%

T/e =n$te& *tate aerte& $t neutral$t) at t/e #eg$nn$ng o t/e war, t/en later t$lte&

uno$c$all) $n aor o 6ra5 a 6ran &roe #ac+ t/e 6ra5$ orce an& counterattac+e& acro t/e

#or&er% 6n 198!N198K, a art o a Itrateg$c oen$ng to 6ran coule& w$t/ an a#ort$e eort to

ree =%*% /otage $n Le#anon, t/e =n$te& *tate an& 6rael un&ertoo+ a er$e o ecret contact

9Former *ecretar) o Deene Jame *c/le$nger &rew attent$on to t/$ act $n an art$cle5uet$on$ng w/et/er t/e Ba$& Delo)ment Jo$nt Ta+ Force BDJTF wa ra$&, &elo)a#le, oreen a orce% *ee IBa$& Delo)ment Force, .ashington Post"*etem#er 24, 1980%10(ar) *$c+, ITr$al #) Error: Belect$on on t/e 6ran-6ra5 >ar,Middle East 3ournal" ol% 43 no%

2 1989, 230-44%

9


10/23

an& u#tant$al arm traner to 6ran t/at eect$el) /$te& =%*% ol$c)Qat leat at t/e coert

leelQtowar& 6ran%11Fun& rom t/e arm ale were ue& to uort t/e M$caraguan counter-

reolut$onar$e, or contra% >/en t/e reelat$on o t/ee arrangement 6ran-contra aa$rcreate&

conternat$on an& t/reatene& =%*% relat$on w$t/ t/e r$en&l) o$l-ro&uc$ng tate o t/e (ul, t/e

=n$te& *tate reere& $el& /arl) an& a&ote& an oenl) ro-6ra5$ o$t$on%12

Dur$ng muc/ o t/e war, t/e =n$te& *tate an& man) ot/er ower a&ote& a /an&-o

oture, content to ee t/ee two a#om$na#le reg$me e/aut eac/ ot/er on t/e #attle$el&,

art$cularl) $nce t/e war wa /a$ng relat$el) l$ttle $mact on o$l ul$e or r$ce%13T/at

nonc/alance #egan to a&e $n 198!N198K w/en 6ran #egan to retal$ate or 6ra5$ a$r attac+ aga$nt

$t /$$ng $n t/e (ul #) u$ng m$ne an& mall, unmar+e& arme& #oat aga$nt neutral

/$$ng en route to @uwa$t an& *au&$ ;ra#$a%

6n late 198K, @uwa$t a+e& #ot/ t/e =n$te& *tate an& t/e *o$et =n$on to lace @uwa$t$

tan+er un&er t/e$r lag an& ro$&e rotect$on% T/e *o$et =n$on agree& to relag t/ree @uwa$t$tan+er, an& t/e =n$te& *tate 5u$c+l) ollowe& u$t #) relagg$ng eleen% T/e =n$te& *tate

moe& a u#tant$al num#er o naal /$ $nto or near t/e (ul an& #egan ecort$ng tan+er

cono) to an& rom @uwa$t%146ranG $n&$cr$m$nate ue o m$ne le& ot/er M;T na$e to en&

m$neweeer an& ot/er ecort /$ to t/e (ul to rotect $nternat$onal /$$ng%

11T/ere wa an $nteret$ng arallel $n t/$ econ& maor =%*% colla#orat$on w$t/ an out$&e ower$n 6ran ater t/e 19!3 cou% 6rael wa $nterete& $n retor$ng $t contact an& $nluence $n 6ran,w/$c/ were lot &ur$ng t/e reolut$on t/e =n$te& *tate, /oweer, aw t/$ $n col& war term,ear$ng t/at t/e =**B woul& elo$t t/e ot-reolut$on c/ao to ma+e ol$t$cal $nroa& $nto6ran%12For a &eta$le& eam$nat$on o t/$ e$o&e, ee T/eo&ore Draer,A 4ery Thin +ine: The !ran,5ontra Affairs,Mew .or+: $ll an& >ang, 1991%13T/e caualt) $gure or t/e 6ran-6ra5 war are oten eaggerate&% o/en Ba$5&ut, t/e ormer/ea& o t/e 6ran$an Beolut$onar) (uar& ForceCor, tol& Bo#ert F$+ o t/e!nde/endentJune2!, 199! t/at 220,000 6ran$an were +$lle& an& 400,000 woun&e& &ur$ng t/e 6ran-6ra5 war% T/at$ roug/l) con$tent w$t/ 6ran$an o$c$al tatement an& w$t/ $n&een&ent >etern et$mate%6ra5 /a neer u#l$/e& an) $gure on $t loe, #ut ;matA$a ?aram, a ec$al$t on 6ra5 ata$a =n$er$t), /a et$mate& t/at 1!0,000 6ra5$ were +$lle& 3erusalem 6uarterly"no% 49[>$nter 1989, % 8!N8K% 6 t/e tan&ar& rat$o o two woun&e& or eer) man +$lle& $ al$e&,6ra5 ma) /ae /a& 300,000 woun&e&% T/u, an $norme& et$mate o total loe on #ot/ $&ewoul& e5ual aro$matel) 370,000 +$lle& an& ome 700,000 woun&e&, w/$c/ $ $mrec$e #utlau$#le% 6n t/e cae o 6ra5, t/$ caualt) leel $ roug/l) comara#le to =%*% loe $n t/e C$$l>ar%14T/e u#tant$al &elo)ment o =%*% orce to t/e (ul wa /atene&Qa wa congre$onalaroalQ#) t/e 6ra5$ m$$le attac+ on t/e =** *tar+ on a) 17, 1987% ;lt/oug/ t/e #u$l&uwa $nten&e& to counter 6ran, t/e 6ra5$ attac+ galan$Ae& u#l$c attent$on an& un&erl$ne& t/et/reat to /$$ng $n t/e (ul%

10


11/23

;lt/oug/ t/e relagg$ng &ec$$on wa een at t/e t$me a a temorar) =%*% reone to a

ec$$c ro#lem, $n retroect $t wa a un&amental turn$ng o$nt% For t/e $rt t$me $nce >orl&

>ar 66, t/e =n$te& *tate aume& an oerat$onal role $n t/e &eene o t/e Per$an (ul, w$t/ all

t/at $ml$e& $n term o &eeloment o $nratructure, &octr$ne, coor&$nat$on w$t/ M;T all$e,

an& &$rect colla#orat$on w$t/ t/e ;ra# tate on t/e out/ern l$ttoral% Pre$&ent BeaganG m$l$tar)

$nterent$on t/u con$rme& Pre$&ent CarterG aert$on t/at t/e (ul wa o $tal $nteret to t/e

=n$te& *tate an& t/at t/e =n$te& *tate wa reare& to ue m$l$tar) orce $n uru$t o t/at

$nteret% ;lt/oug/ t/e Carter Doctr$ne a&&ree& t/e roect$e t/reat rom t/e *o$et =n$on, $t

$rt maor $mlementat$on $nole& a reg$onal tate, ant$c$at$ng t/e ma$e $nternat$onal

coal$t$on t/at reelle& 6ra5G occuat$on o @uwa$t $n Januar) 1991%

From w>ar to w>ar

=n$te& Mat$on =M *ecur$t) Counc$l Beolut$on !98 wa ae& unan$moul)#) t/e

*ecur$t) Counc$l on Jul) 20, 1987, call$ng or an $mme&$ate ceae-$re #etween 6ran an& 6ra5%T/$ et o a ull )ear o acr$mon$ou &e#ate, unctuate& #) ora&$c m$$le #om#ar&ment o

c$t$e an& urt/er attac+ on o$l tan+er%1!; new element $n t/$ ecalat$on o t/e war wa t/e

ean&e& ue o c/em$cal weaon #) 6ra5 aga$nt c$$l$an target% 6ra5 /a& ue& o$on ga

eten$el) $n earl$er cama$gn, #ut t/e target /a& #een 6ran$an m$l$tar) orce% n t/e een$ng

o arc/ 1K, 1988, 6ra5 con&ucte& two #om#$ng ra$& aga$nt t/e $llage o ala#a/, w/$c/

6ran$an orce were a#out to enter% T/e #om# caug/t t/e local 6ra5$ @ur&$/ $llager $n t/e$r

/ome an& $n t/e treet, +$ll$ng at leat 2,000 c$$l$an%1KT/e =M &$atc/e& an $net$gat$ng

team t/at con$rme& t/e atroc$t)% ?ut 6ra5 wa unreentant% Fore$gn $n$ter Tar$5 R;A$A wrote

to t/e ecretar)-general t/at I$n t/e$r leg$t$mate, moral, an& $nternat$onall) aroe& el-

&eene, our eole are &eterm$ne& to ue all aa$la#le a#$l$t$e an& mean aga$nt t/e cr$m$nal$na&er%176n act, $n t/e uccee&$ng mont/, 6ra5 ue& o$on ga more re5uentl) an& aga$nt a

w$&er range o target, $nclu&$ng c$$l$an, t/an at an) re$ou t$me $n t/e war% T/e =M *ecur$t)

Counc$l ae& Beolut$on K12 on a) 9, 1988, man&at$ng an $mme&$ate en& to t/e ue o

1!6ra5 wa muc/ #etter e5u$e& t/an 6ran, an& $t $re& 3 to 4 m$$le to eer) 6ran$an m$$le%T/e onl) con$rme& ue o o$on ga wa #) 6ra5Qaga$nt 6ran$an troo ormat$on an& omec$$l$an $te $n @ur&$/ terr$tor)% For a more &eta$le& eam$nat$on o t/$ arme& negot$at$on, ee(ar) *$c+, I*louc/$ng Towar& *ettlement: T/e 6nternat$onal$Aat$on o t/e 6ran-6ra5 >ar, 1987N88, $n M$++$ @e&&$e an& ar+ (a$orow+$, e&%,-either East -or .est: !ran" the SovietUnion" and the United StatesMew aen: , .ale =n$er$t) Pre, 1990,, %219N24K%1KFor an aut/or$tat$e account o 6ra5G ue o c/em$cal weaon an& t/e te$& $nternat$onalreone, ee Joot B% $ltermann, Iut$&er a Ena#ler: Cone5uence an& Leon rom6nternat$onal *$lence on 6ra5G =e o C/em$cal >eaon &ur$ng t/e 6ran-6ra5 >ar, $nLawrence (% Potter an& (ar) *$c+, e&%, $tor%!ran" !ra7" and the +egacies of .ar"Mew .or+:Palgraeacm$llan,Moem#er 2004, , % 1!1-1KK%[note t/at t/$ coul& now #e relace& w$t//$ ull lengt/ #oo+ ent$tle& ; Po$onou ;a$r o coure 6 woul& l$+e to +ee t/e (2@ re%17Letter to t/e ecretar)-general o arc/ 28 F?6*, arc/ 30, 1988%

11


12/23

c/em$cal weaon $n t/e war an& /ol&$ng out t/e roect o anct$on aga$nt $olator, #ut $t

wa neer $mlemente& an& /a& no eect%

Dur$ng t/$ ame er$o&, t/e *o$et =n$on announce& $t $ntent$on to w$t/&raw $t

m$l$tar) orce rom ;g/an$tan #) t/e en& o 1988% T/$ reulte& $n t/e $gn$ng o an accor&

#etween ;g/an$tan an& Pa+$tan on ;r$l 14 $n (enea, w$t/ t/e =n$te& *tate an& t/e *o$et

=n$on a co-guarantor%

T/roug/out t/$ er$o&, ol$t$cal co/e$on $n 6ran wa #rea+$ng &own, an& t% T/e

cont$nue& ue o m$ne $n t/e Per$an (ul et o a new roun& o cla/e w$t/ =%*% orce, w/$c/

attac+e& 6ran$an o$l latorm on cto#er 19, 1987 an& ;r$l 18, 1988%186ra5 went on t/e

oen$e aga$nt 6ranG &$organ$Ae& an& &$/eartene& m$l$tar) orce, recatur$ng t/e Fao

Pen$nula $n a l$g/tn$ng attac+ on ;r$l 18, t/en rocee&$ng to u/ #ac+ 6ran$an orce all along

t/e ront% 6n m$&-a), aarentl) w$t/ a$tance rom *au&$ ;ra#$a, 6ra5 carr$e& out a

&eatat$ng attac+ on t/e 6ran$an o$l traner $te at Lara+ 6lan& $n t/e out/ern (ul, &etro)$ng$e /$, $nclu&$ng t/e worl&G larget uertan+er%19;nt$war ent$ment #egan to aear oenl)

$n &emontrat$on $n maor 6ran$an c$t$e% ;n& mot &$tur#$ng o all or t/e &$$&e& lea&er/$,

erua$e e$&ence #egan to accumulate t/at @/ome$n$ wa eerel) $ll an& $rtuall)

$ncaac$tate&%

n Jul) 3, a commerc$al 6ran$an a$rcrat wa /ot &own #) t/e =** $ncenne, +$ll$ng all

290 aenger an& crew% T/$ terr$#le acc$&ent, com$ng at t/e en& o a eem$ngl) en&le er$e

o &eeat, un&ercore& t/e &ea$r o 6ranG o$t$on% n Jul) 18, t/e 6ran$an ore$gn m$n$ter

ent a letter to t/e =M ecretar)-general ormall) accet$ng Beolut$on !98% Two &a) later,

18ne m$ne truc+ t/e =** *amuel ?% Bo#ert an& on ;r$l 18, 1988, =%*% orce /$t two 6ran$ano$l latorm, Mar near *$rr$ 6lan& an& *alman $n t/e o$nt 6ran-man Laan $el&, remo$ngome !0,000 #arrel er &a) rom 6ranG o$l ro&uct$on% 6n t/e ame act$on, two 6ran$an r$gatewere un+, anot/er wa eerel) &amage&, an& our gun#oat were &amage& or un+% 6n 199K,[or 1992 *ee ??C newcl$ o Mo% K, 2003 6ran #roug/t a u$t aga$nt t/e =n$te& *tate $n t/e6nternat$onal Court o Jut$ce ee+$ng comenat$on or t/e lo o t/e o$l latorm on t/egroun& t/at t/e attac+ were a $olat$on o $nternat$onal law an& contrar) to t/e term o e$t$ng=%*%-6ran$an agreement%T/e =%*% counter-cla$me& or &amage caue& #) 6ran to commerc$al/$ a$l$ng un&er t/e ;mer$can lag% 6n 2003, t/e >orl& Court rule& t/at t/e =%*% act$on wereunut$$e&, #ut &$& not grant comenat$on to e$t/er $&e% 6nternat$onal Court o Jut$ce, PreBeleae 2003S38, K Moem#er 2003%19T/e #$tter &$ute #etween 6ran an& *au&$ ;ra#$a oer 6ranG art$c$at$on $n t/e annual /a&eeene& t/e &$trut #etween t/ee two tate% *au&$ ;ra#$a tee& u $t &$rect uort or6ra5, aarentl) erm$tt$ng 6ra5$ a$rcrat to ut$l$Ae *au&$ a$r$el& &ur$ng ra$& on 6ran$an o$lac$l$t$e $n t/e out/ern (ul% n ;r$l 2K, 1988, *au&$ ;ra#$a #ro+e &$lomat$c relat$on w$t/6ran%

12


13/23

@/ome$n$ ent a Imeage to t/e nat$on, rea& #) an announcer, aoc$at$ng /$mel w$t/ t/e

&ec$$on, w/$c/, /e a$&, wa Imore &ea&l) t/an ta+$ng o$on%20

6ra5 wa ta+en #) urr$e an& $n$t$all) re$te& accet$ng a ceae-$re, w/$le cont$nu$ng

$t mo$ng u oerat$on% 6ra5 alo cont$nue& to &emontrate a contemtuou &$regar& or t/e

*ecur$t) Counc$l an& or worl& o$n$on on t/e ue o c/em$cal weaon% ; =M $net$gat$e

team reente& $t reort to t/e *ecur$t) Counc$l on ;ugut 1, $n&$ng t/at Ic/em$cal weaon

cont$nue to #e ue& on an $nten$e cale #) 6ra5% nl) /our later, 6ra5 launc/e& a ma$e

c/em$cal #om#$ng attac+ on t/e 6ran$an @ur&$/ town o /no$)e/% oweer, a

$nternat$onal reure mounte&, *a&&am ue$n $nall) agree& to accet a ceae-$re on ;ugut

K% ; =M o#erer orce wa ru/e& to t/e reg$on, an& a ceae-$re went $nto eect on ;ugut 20,

1988%

T/e en& o t/e war ro$&e& an oortun$t) or t/e ?u/ a&m$n$trat$on to recon$&er $t

uort or *a&&am ue$n $n t/e wa+e o reelat$on a#out 6ra5G ue o c/em$cal weaonaga$nt $t own oulat$on, t/e genoc$&al ;nal cama$gn aga$nt t/e @ur&, an& eort to

&eelo nuclear an& ot/er weaon o ma &etruct$on% T/e ol$c) o l$m$te& cooerat$on w$t/

6ra5, /oweer, rema$ne& $ntact% T/$ ol$c) #ecame an em#arrament ater t/e &eeat o 6ra5 $n

1991, w/en cla$m were leele& t/at t/e =%*% goernment /a& c/oen to $gnore warn$ng t/at

agr$cultural cre&$t m$g/t /ae #een &$erte& to t/e urc/ae o m$l$tar) e5u$ment% T/e mot

enat$onal c/arge o cr$m$nal reon$#$l$t) were neer u#tant$ate&, an& t/e o-calle&

6ra5gate can&al a&e& ater t/e 1992 =%*% re$&ent$al elect$on% oweer, &ocument ma&e

aa$la#le to t/e Congre an& t/e me&$a &$& &emontrate erua$el) t/at t/e ?u/

a&m$n$trat$on /a& urue& a largel) uncr$t$cal ol$c) towar& 6ra5 &ur$ng t/e er$o& #etween t/e

en& o t/e 6ran-6ra5 war an& t/e 6ra5$ $na$on o @uwa$t%21

;t a m$n$mum, t/$ ol$c) o tolerance an& $nattent$ene ma) /ae contr$#ute& to a

ale ene o ecur$t) on t/e art o *a&&am ue$n a /e reare& to $na&e /$ ne$g/#or to

t/e out/% T/e =%*% am#aa&or to ?ag/&a&, ;r$l (la$e, wa w$&el) cr$t$c$Ae& or a$l$ng to

warn *a&&am ue$n a#out t/e o$#le cone5uence o an attac+, #ut an) a$r-m$n&e& re$ew

o t/e recor& woul& reeal t/at /e wa accuratel) relect$ng t/e ol$c) o t/e re$&ent an&

ecretar) o tate &ur$ng t/$ $nterwar er$o&%22

20%F?6*, Jul) 21, 1988% n Jul) 2!, @/ome$n$ ma&e a $-m$nute aearance on tele$$on romt/e #alcon) o /$ re$&ence% e aeare& etremel) ra$l an& &$& not ea+%21For eamle, ee urra) >aa an& Dougla FrantA, I=%*% (ae Data to 6ra5 T/ree ont/?eore 6na$on Per$an (ul: Document */ow 6ntell$gence */ar$ng w$t/ ?ag/&a& Late&Longer T/an Pre$oul) 6n&$cate&,+os Angeles Times" arc/ 10, 1992,% 1 one o a er$e o$net$gat$e reort% *ee alo IMew Conerence, Be% Jac+ ?roo+ DNT Be% C/arle*c/umer DNM.: *ec$al Proecutor Cr$m$nal Deal$ng w$t/ 6ra5 Pr$or to 6ra5$ 6na$on o@uwa$t, Fe&eral Mew *er$ce, Jul) 9, 1992%

13


14/23

T/e *econ& (ul >ar

>/en 6ra5$ orce croe& t/e #or&er $nto @uwa$t at 1 a%m% on t/e morn$ng o ;ugut 2, 1990,

t/e) et $n mot$on a er$e o eent t/at woul& tranorm =%*% ol$c) $n t/e Per$an (ul% 6t

mar+e& a turn$ng o$nt $n =%*% relat$on w$t/ t/e ;ra# tate o t/e (ul, an& t/e cooerat$on

#etween t/e =n$te& *tate an& t/e *o$et =n$on on a matter o /$g/ trateg) an& m$l$tar) ol$c),

w/$c/ woul& /ae #een unt/$n+a#le onl) a ew )ear earl$er, mar+e& t/e un&en$a#le en& o t/e

col& war% T/e ucceul creat$on o a er) large $nternat$onal coal$t$on un&er t/e au$ce o t/e

=M an& un&er t/e &$rect lea&er/$ o t/e =n$te& *tate aroue& eectat$on or #ot/ t/e =M

an& eace+ee$ng, ome o w/$c/ wa eree& $n Pre$&ent (eorge ?u/G ue o t/e /rae Ia

new worl& or&er $n relat$on to t/e (ul $nterent$on%23

T/e eentual ue o m$$le #) 6ra5 aga$nt 6rael un&ercore& t/e relat$on/$ #etween

t/e ;ra#-6rael conl$ct an& (ul ol$c) more clearl) t/an at an) t$me $nce t/e o$l em#argo o

1973% T/e $mme&$ate $mo$t$on o a &racon$an anct$on reg$me aga$nt 6ra5, an& $tcont$nuat$on oer a er$o& o man) )ear, &emontrate& #ot/ t/e etent an& l$m$tat$on o

collect$e, non$olent coerc$on #) t/e $nternat$onal commun$t)% T/e com#$ne& ue o a$r ower,

l$g/tn$ng groun& mo#$l$t), an& t/e ue o /$g/-tec/ weaonQman) or t/e $rt t$me $n com#at

Q$n a comuter$Ae& #attle$el& en$ronment wrote a new c/ater $n t/e con&uct o mo&ern

warare an& ra$e& ome trou#l$ng new 5uet$on%24T/e me&$a, an& eec$all) tele$$on, #roug/t

t/ee eent $nto t/e worl&G l$$ng room w$t/ an $nt$mac) an& $mme&$ac) t/at ma) /ae #een

unrece&ente& $n $t un$eral$t)%

22; er#at$m tet o (la$eG meet$ng w$t/ *a&&am ue$n on Jul) 2!, 1990, wa laterreleae& #) t/e 6ra5$ goernment an& wa u#l$/e& #) t/e-e 8or9 Timeson *etem#er 23,1990, % 19% (la$e, $n tet$mon) #eore t/e *enate Fore$gn Belat$on Comm$ttee on arc/ 20,1991, c/aracter$Ae& t/e trancr$t a a#out 80 ercent accurate, #ut w$t/ ome +e) aagee&$te& out%23*eec/ #) Pre$&ent ?u/ rom t/e al $ce, Januar) 1K, 1991, two /our ater t/e#om#$ng cama$gn aga$nt 6ra5$ o$t$on /a& #egun%

24*ee, or eamle, IMee&le Deat/ $n t/e (ul >ar: C$$l$an Caualt$e Dur$ng t/e ;$rCama$gn an& $olat$on o t/e Law o >ar, $&&le Eat >atc/ BeortMew .or+: , umanB$g/t >atc/,Mew .or+,Moem#er 1991%

14


15/23

*a&&am ue$nG orce were eecte& rom @uwa$t w$t/ m$n$mal com#at caualt$e%2!

n arc/ 3, =%*% (eneral Morman *c/wartA+o met w$t/ an 6ra5$ m$l$tar) &elegat$on at

*awan a$r$el& $n out/ern 6ra5, an& t/e 6ra5$ 5u$c+l) agree& to all$e& term% ;lmot

$mme&$atel), reolt aga$nt *a&&am ue$nG reg$me #ro+e out among t/e @ur& $n nort/ern

6ra5 an& among t/e */$Ra $n out/ern 6ra5% 6n$t$all) Pre$&ent ?u/ &eclare& t/at 6ra5 wa

$olat$ng t/e term o t/e ceae-$re #) u$ng m$l$tar) /el$coter to ut &own t/e reolt% e

reere& /$mel almot $mme&$atel), /oweer, tat$ng t/at Iu$ng /el$coter l$+e t/$ to ut

&own oneG own eole &oe not a&& to t/e ta#$l$t) o t/e area% %%%>e are not $n t/ere tr)$ng to

$moe a olut$on $n$&e 6ra5%2K

T/e &$t$nct$on wa cr$t$cal% er t/e ollow$ng wee+, 6ra5$ orce #rutall) uree&

t/e ur$$ng an& argua#l) reere& *a&&am ue$n $n ower% T/e rat$onale or t/e c/ange

wa elle& out two wee+ later #) >/$te oue o+eman arl$n F$tAwater, w/o note&,

IT/ere $ no $nteret $n t/e coal$t$on $n urt/er m$l$tar) oerat$on% ;ra# o$c$al, /e a$&, were

tell$ng >a/$ngton: ILet ue$n &eal w$t/ t/$, t/en t/e &ut w$ll ettle an& /eG go$ng to /aeto a) t/e $er or t/e war oer @uwa$t% r at leat t/at $ w/at we are count$ng on%27

6n an $nter$ew w$t/ Da$& Frot, (eneral *c/wartA+o a$& /e wa Iuc+ere& #) t/e

6ra5$ $nto agree$ng to erm$t /el$coter to l), oten$#l) to moe to o$c$al #etween c$t$e,

w/en t/e) reall) $nten&e& to ue /el$coter gun/$ aga$nt t/e re#el %28F$e )ear later, alo $n

an $nter$ew w$t/ Da$& Frot, (eorge ?u/ commente& a#out *a&&am ue$n, I6

m$calculate&% %%%6 t/oug/t /eG& #e gone% >$t/ regar& to t/e *awan meet$ng, ?u/ note&, I6

t/$n+ /e too+ u #) urr$e% %%%>e m$g/t /ae /an&le& t/e l)$ng o /el$coter &$erentl)% %%%*o

6 t/$n+ t/ereG room or ome e ot acto cr$t$c$m /ere%29

>/ateer t/e rat$onale, t/e =%*% &ec$$on to erm$t *a&&am ue$n to ue a&ance&

weaonr) to ure t/e $nternal reolt ater t/e war ma&e t/e =n$te& *tate an acceor) ater

t/e act to a maacre an& enure&, w/et/er $na&ertentl) or not, t/at *a&&am ue$n woul&

reta$n ower $n 6ra5% >/en t/e etent o t/e rere$on #ecame +nown, an& a @ur&$/ reugee

2!;ccor&$ng to o$c$al count, all$e& &eat/ were 14K ;mer$can 3! #) r$en&l) $re, 24 ?r$t$/9 #) ;mer$can $re, 2 Frenc/men, 1 6tal$an, an& 39 among ar$ou ;ra# all$e% ?ag/&a& /aneer g$en an o$c$al count o $t caualt$e, #ut otwar anal)e conclu&e& t/at 6ra5Gun$orme& loe were ar maller t/an re$oul) et$mate&, er/a a low a 1,!00 &eat/%Et$mate o c$$l$an caualt$e were uncerta$n an& ar$e& greatl) rom one o#erer to anot/er%*ee Jo/n (% e$&enr$c/, IT/e (ul >ar: ow an) 6ra5$ D$e&(oreign Policy"no% 90*r$ng 1993, % 108N12!% T/e ;oc$ate& Pre on arc/ 9, 1993 ro$&e& an oer$ew ot/e ar$ou et$mate%2K-e 8or9 Times"arc/ 1!, 1991, % 13%

276#$&%, arc/ 27, 1991, % 1, 9%286#$&%, arc/ 28, 1991, % 1, 18%29Dow Jone Mew, Januar) 1!, 199K%

1!


16/23

#egan loo&$ng acro t/e #or&er $nto Tur+e), t/e =n$te& *tate, toget/er w$t/ France an& (reat

?r$ta$n, eta#l$/e& o-calle& no-l) Aone $n t/e nort/ an& out/% T/$ geture un&ou#te&l) ae&

ome l$e an& eect$el) reente& *a&&am ue$n rom reeta#l$/$ng total control oer t/e

@ur&$/ terr$tor$e% 6t wa, /oweer, muc/ too late to ae t/e man) t/ouan& o 6ra5$ w/o /a&

ontaneoul) attac+e& t/e )m#ol o ?aRt/$t rule $n t/e wee+ ater t/e all$e& $ctor)%

[6 woul& ment$on /ere t/e ?a+er lan rooe& ater t/e /ot$l$t$e, $n w/$c/ /e a$& 6ran coul&

la) a role $n uture ecur$t) arrangement $n t/e (ul N an enl$g/tene& $&ea w/oe t$me /a not

)et come% *ee /$ tet$mon) to t/e oue Fore$gn ;a$r Comm$ttee, K Fe#ruar) 1991%

T/e Cl$nton ;&m$n$trat$on an& Dual Conta$nment30

n a) 18, 1993, two mont/ ater Pre$&ent Cl$nton too+ o$ce, art$n 6n&)+ o t/e Mat$onal

*ecur$t) Counc$l ta elle& out t/e #roa& outl$ne o w/at /e calle& ;mer$caG I&ual

conta$nment ol$c) $n t/e Per$an (ul%31Tra&$t$onall), t/e =n$te& *tate /a& urue& a ol$c)

o #alanc$ng 6ran or 6ra5 aga$nt t/e ot/er a a mean o ma$nta$n$ng a &egree o reg$onalta#$l$t) an& to rotect t/e maller, o$l-r$c/ ;ra# tate on t/e out/ern $&e o t/e (ul% T/at wa

t/e uroe o t/e Tw$n P$llar ol$c), an& $t wa $ml$c$t $n u#e5uent t$lt towar& 6ra5 an&

#r$el) 6ran &ur$ng t/e 6ran-6ra5 war% 6n&)+, /oweer, rocla$me& t/e ol$c) #an+rut an&

reecte& $t I#ecaue we &onGt nee& to rel) on one to #alance t/e ot/er% 6ra5 wa #oe& $n #) =M

anct$on, 6ran wa nearl) rotrate ater t/e e$g/t-)ear war w$t/ 6ra5, an& t/e =n$te& *tate wa

t/e re&om$nant ower $n t/e Per$an (ul w$t/ t/e Imean to counter #ot/ t/e 6ra5$ an& 6ran$an

reg$me%32

;lt/oug/ $t wa not necear$l) 6n&)+G or Cl$ntonG $ntent$on, t/e &ual conta$nment

ol$c) mar+e& t/e ormal entrance o t/e =n$te& *tate $nto t/e Per$an (ul a a re$&entol$t$cal an& m$l$tar) ower% 6n t/e wa+e o t/e 6ra5 war, t/e re&om$nance o t/e =n$te& *tate

$n t/e reg$on wa $ml) ta+en or grante&, an& t/ere wa no /$nt t/at t/$ wa a temorar) tate

o aa$r% >/ateer one m$g/t /ae t/oug/t a#out t/e IMew >orl& r&er, t/$ new ol$c) let

no &ou#t a#out a new or&er at leat $n t/e Per$an (ul% T/e =n$te& *tate wa t/e &om$nant

ower an& wa t/ere to ta)%

6ra5

30T/e ollow$ng anal)$ &raw eten$el) on t/e aut/orG art$cle IBet/$n+$ng DualConta$nment, Survival: The !!SS 6uarterly"ol% 40, no% 1 *r$ng 1998,% !N32%31art$n 6n&)+, IT/e Cl$nton ;&m$n$trat$onG ;roac/ to t/e $&&le Eat, @e)note ;&&reto t/e *ore *)mo$um on IC/allenge to =%*% 6nteret $n t/e $&&le Eat: #tacle an&ortun$t$e, Procee&$ng o t/e >a/$ngton 6nt$tute or Mear Eat Pol$c), a) 18N19, 1993,% 1N8% art$n 6n&)+ ;at t/e t$me o t/$ eec/ 6n&)+ /a& ut o$ne& t/e Mat$onal *ecur$t)Counc$l ta% e later #ecame t/e =%*% am#aa&or to 6rael tw$ce, earate& #) anao$ntment a a$tant ecretar) o tate or Mear Eat aa$r%326n&)+, IT/e Cl$nton ;&m$n$trat$onG ;roac/ to t/e $&&le Eat,%4%

1K


17/23

T/e o#ect$e o =%*% ol$c) w$t/ regar& to 6ra5 wa to uta$n t/e coal$t$on t/at /a& &eeate& t/e

arm$e o *a&&am ue$n $n erat$on Deert *torm an& to enure t/at 6ra5 coml$e& w$t/ all

=n$te& Mat$on reolut$on% T/e =n$te& *tate c/aracter$Ae& t/e e$t$ng reg$me $n 6ra5 a

cr$m$nal an& $rre&eema#le an& aore& ma$nta$n$ng t/e anct$on unt$l *a&&am ue$n wa

gone%33T/$ o$t$on create& &$$cult$e w$t/ ot/er mem#er o t/e =M *ecur$t) Counc$l, $nce

;rt$cle 22 o t/e ena#l$ng Beolut$on K87 ec$$e& t/at t/e anct$on woul& #e l$te& once 6ra5

/a& el$m$nate& an& accounte& or all o $t weaon o ma &etruct$on%

6n t/e )ear ater t/e a&ot$on o t/e ol$c), t/e =n$te& *tate reorte&l) #u&gete&

aro$matel) U1! m$ll$on er )ear or coert act$on to &eta#$l$Ae t/e *a&&am ue$n reg$me

an& or uort o ar$ou 6ra5$ oo$t$on grou%34T/e =%*% Central 6ntell$gence ;genc)

attemte& to organ$Ae eeral oerat$on to &eoe *a&&am ue$n, $nclu&$ng a maor coert

act$on ut #eore t/e Cl$nton a&m$n$trat$on too+ o$ce an& at leat two ot/er $n 199! an&

199K%3!

T/ee oerat$on were unucceul%

6n June 1993 an& $n *etem#er 199K, t/e =n$te& *tate launc/e& cru$e m$$le aga$nt

target $n 6ra5% T/e $rt cae wa retal$at$on or e$&ence o an 6ra5$ lot to aa$nate ormer

Pre$&ent (eorge ?u/ $n @uwa$t% T/e econ& wa $n retal$at$on aga$nt 6ra5$ groun& orce

$ncur$on $n nort/ern 6ra5 $n cooerat$on w$t/ t/e @ur&$/ Democrat$c Part)%3Kn eeral

occa$on, t/e =n$te& *tate urge& m$l$tar) orce $nto t/e reg$on $n reone to 6ra5$ t/reat or

a$lure to coml) w$t/ =M *ec$al Comm$$on =M*C $nect$on% 6n Fe#ruar) 1998, t/e

=n$te& *tate aeare& to #e o$e& or a ma$e tr$+e aga$nt 6ra5, w/en t/e 6ra5$ goernment

reue& to erm$t $nect$on o re$&ent$al $te% T/at cr$$ wa reole& onl) w/en t/e =M

ecretar)-general went to ?ag/&a& an& negot$ate& a memoran&um o un&ertan&$ng w$t/ t/e6ra5$ re$&ent%37

33*ee, or eamle, t/e remar+ #) *ecretar) o *tate a&ele$ne @% ;l#r$g/t at (eorgetown=n$er$t), >a/$ngton, D%C%, arc/ 2K, 1997, a releae& #) t/e $ce o t/e *o+eman, =%*%Deartment o *tate%34Ela$ne *c$ol$no, IC6; ;+ Congre or one) to Be$n $n 6ra5 an& 6ran, -e 8or9 Times";r$l 12, 199!,%1%3!;ll o t/ee oerat$on were u#l$cl) con$rme& ater t/e eent #) ormer en$or o$c$al o t/e=%*% goernment% *ee Don #er&orer, I=%*% a& Coert Plan to ut 6ra5G *a&&am, ?u/;&$er ;ert Eort to Bemoe Lea&er Came RPrett) Cloe,G .ashington Post, Januar) 20,1993, % 1 an& ;?C Mew, I=n$n$/e& ?u$neQt/e C6; an& *a&&am ue$n, trancr$tno% 970K2K01-13, June 2K, 1997% T/ere were alo &eta$le& reort $n t/e+os Angeles Times, t/e-e 8or9 Times, an& ot/er me&$a%

3KT/$ attac+ wa art$cularl) controer$al $nce t/e target were $n t/e out/ an& unrelate& tot/e groun& attac+ $n t/e nort/%37*ee Iemoran&um o =n&ertan&$ng ?etween t/e =n$te& Mat$on an& t/e Beu#l$c o 6ra5,;oc$ate& Pre, Fe#ruar) 24, 1998%

17


18/23

T/e #ottom l$ne, /oweer, wa t/at t/e =n$te& *tate, w$t/ $gn$$cant /el rom a

num#er o r$en&, all$e, an& t/e =M *ecur$t) Counc$l, wa generall) ucceul $n +ee$ng

*a&&am ue$n $n w/at *ecretar) o *tate a&ele$ne ;l#r$g/t calle& a Itrateg$c #o% ?) m$&-

1998, t/$ ol$c) wa lo$ng uort rom t/e ;ra# tate, w/$c/ elt t/at t/e 6ra5$ eole were

#e$ng una$rl) un$/e& or t/e m$#e/a$or o t/e$r ruler, an& rom tate uc/ a Bu$a,

France, an& C/$na t/at /a& maor ol$t$cal an& $nanc$al $nteret $n 6ra5% T/e $nternat$onal

conenu wa reere&, /oweer, r$mar$l) #ecaue o t/e unrelent$ng $ntran$gence an&

#ell$gerence o t/e 6ra5$ lea&er%

6ran

T/e ot/er target o &ual conta$nment, 6ran, oe& a er) &$erent et o ro#lem% T/e &ual

conta$nment ol$c) calle& or 6ran to: 1 ceae $t uort o $nternat$onal terror$m an&

u#er$on, 2 en& $t $olent oo$t$on to t/e ;ra#-6rael eace tal+, an& 3 /alt eort to

ac5u$re weaon o ma &etruct$on%

Pre$&ent ?u/ /a& reerre& to 6ran $n /$ 6naugural ;&&re $n Januar) 1989, a)$ng t/at

I(oo&w$ll #eget goo&w$ll% (oo& a$t/ can #e a $ral t/at en&lel) moe on%38T/ere wa,

/oweer, no tal+ o goo&w$ll #) t/e Cl$nton a&m$n$trat$on% 6ntea&, =%*% o$c$al &eeloe& a

ec$al oca#ular) $n w/$c/ 6ran wa rout$nel) #ran&e& a a Irogue, Iterror$t, Ioutlaw, or

I#ac+la/ tate% T/$ relentle &rum$re o attac+Qt/e m$rror $mage o 6ran$an &e$ct$on o

t/e =n$te& *tate a t/e I(reat *atanQ/a& $t eect $n t/e me&$a, $n t/e Congre, $n t/e

u#l$c, an& $n t/e att$tu&e o lower-leel #ureaucrat% >$t/ a Democrat $n t/e >/$te oue an&

t/e Beu#l$can $n control o t/e Congre, a &omet$c ol$t$cal contet &eeloe& oer w/$c/

art) coul& #e mot $gorou $n romot$ng =%*% ol$c$e to &eal /ar/l) w$t/ 6ran% ;art rom t/e$ntene r/etor$c, t/$ ro&uce& a er$e o tr$ngent un$lateral econom$c anct$on aga$nt 6ran%39

6n t/e re$&ent$al elect$on )ear o 199K, t/e Congre attemte& to eten& t/e =%*% anct$on

reg$me $nternat$onall)% T/e) reare& an& ae& a #$ll t/at woul& $moe anct$on on an)

ore$gn cororat$on t/at $nete& U40 m$ll$on or more $n t/e 6ran$an o$l an& ga ector% L$#)a wa

later a&&e& on t/e loor o t/e *enate, an& t/e #$ll #ecame +nown a t/e 6ran-L$#)a *anct$on ;ct

6L*;%

38*ee t/e tet o t/e 6naugural ;&&re $n t/e-e 8or9 Times"Januar) 21, 1989,%10% 6ranwelcome& t/$ remar+ an& reon&e& #) /el$ng to eentuall) ree t/e =%*% /otage $n Le#anon%6t $ a ore o$nt w$t/ 6ran t/at t/$ geture, $n t/e$r $ew, wa neer rec$rocate& #) t/e =n$te&*tate%39*ee Eecut$e r&er 129!7 o arc/ 1!, 199!, an& Eecut$e r&er 129!9 o a) K, 199!%For a &eta$le& anal)$ o t/e ol$t$c aoc$ate& w$t/ t/e &eeloment o 6ran$an anct$on, eeLaur$e Lan&e, I*econ& T/oug/t,!nternational Economy"a)NJune 1997,% 44N49%

18


19/23

6n a) 1997, *e))e& o/amme& @/atam$ wa electe& to a our-)ear term a re$&ent

o 6ran $n a tunn$ng electoral urr$e% @/atam$ attracte& t/e larget num#er o oter $n 6ran$an

/$tor) an& won a &ec$$e $ctor) w$t/ K9 ercent o t/e ote% ;lt/oug/ @/atam$ wa w$&el)

regar&e& a a can&$&ate o &omet$c $ue, $t wa /$ ore$gn ol$c) moe t/at attracte& t/e

mot attent$on &ur$ng t/e $rt )ear o /$ term% 6n Decem#er 1997, 6ran la)e& /ot to t/e

rgan$Aat$on o t/e 6lam$c Conerence, w/ere $t won lau&$t or $t conc$l$ator) o$t$on an&

mo&erat$on% 6ran calle& or cloer cooerat$on w$t/ t/e =M, an $nt$tut$on $t /a& /unne& a a

>etern tool ater t/e reolut$on% 6ran #egan a concerte& eort to $mroe $t relat$on w$t/

*au&$ ;ra#$a an& $t ot/er ;ra# ne$g/#or $n t/e Per$an (ul reg$on, w$t/ ome u#tant$al

$n$t$al ucce%

6n Januar) 1998, @/atam$ ma&e an unrece&ente& I;&&re to t/e ;mer$can Peole $n

t/e orm o an $nter$ew on CMM%40e ra$e& t/e ac/$eement o ;mer$can c$$l$Aat$on, went

a ar a an 6ran$an ol$t$c$an coul& go $n ere$ng regret or t/e /otage cr$$, an& elle& out

er) clearl) 6ranG o$t$on on all o t/e maor $ue o concern to t/e =n$te& *tate $n o$t$eterm%

>a/$ngton reon&e& to t/e @/atam$ $n$t$at$e caut$oul) #ut generall) o$t$el)%41T/e

=n$te& *tate tone& &own $t r/etor$c an& too+ ome mall te to $mroe relat$on% [;&& /ere

;l#r$g/tG 5ual$$e& aolog) or t/e oa&e5 aa$r ?ut ro#lem rema$ne&% Le t/an $t)

&a) ater @/atam$ too+ o$ce, t/e Frenc/ o$l maor Total, toget/er w$t/ tate-owne& artner

(aArom o Bu$a an& Petrona o ala)$a, conclu&e& a U2 #$ll$on &eal to &eelo an 6ran$an

ga $el&, w/$c/ lace& Total an& $t artner $n aarent $olat$on o 6L*;%426n a) 1998,

/oweer, t/e =n$te& *tate announce& t/at $t woul& wa$e t/e ro$$on o 6L*; on groun& o

nat$onal ecur$t)% T/at &ec$$on wa &ue almot ent$rel) to reure rom ;mer$caG Euroeanall$e, #ut $t wa neert/ele rece$e& o$t$el) $n Te/ran%43T/e act wa neer enorce&, #ut $t

40T/e trancr$t o t/$ $nter$ew w$t/ 6ran$an Pre$&ent o/amma& @/atam$ wa ote& on t/eCMM we# $te $mme&$atel) ater $t wa a$re& on Januar) 7, 1998% Large ort$on o t/e tet wereu#l$/e& $n a num#er o newaer t/e ollow$ng &a)%

41Een #eore t/e @/atam$ elect$on, man) en$or ol$c) o#erer an& ormer =%*% o$c$al werecall$ng or c/ange $n t/e &ual conta$nment trateg)% T/ee o$ce $nclu&e& two ormer nat$onalecur$t) a&$er, a ormer ecretar) o &eene, t/ree ormer a$tant ecretar$e o tate orMear Eat aa$r, an& t/e ormer comman&er o =%*% orce $n t/e Per$an (ul, among ot/er%

42T/e tr$gger leel wa re&uce& automat$call) rom U40 m$ll$on to U20 m$ll$on on t/e $rtann$erar) o t/e leg$lat$on $n ;ugut 1997%43T/e Euroean =n$on t/reatene& to ta+e t/e cae to t/e >orl& Tra&e rgan$Aat$on $ t/e =n$te&

*tate $moe& anct$on on t/e Frenc/ coman), on groun& t/at t/e =%*% ol$c) wa $n

$olat$on o $nternat$onal tra&e agreement%;lt/oug/ t/e t/$r& art) anct$on o 6L*; /ae

neer #een ormall) enorce&, t/e t/reat o o$#le =%*% act$on /a& a c/$ll$ng eect on

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/a& a $gn$$cant &eterrent eect on ore$gn coman$e con$&er$ng $netment $n 6ran,

art$cularl) t/oe w$t/ maor /ol&$ng $n t/e =n$te& *tate t/at m$g/t #e ut at r$+% [T/$ /a

neer #een enorce&, /a $t

T/e =n$te& *tate alo announce& a maor re&elo)ment o $t Per$an (ul orce,

/arl) re&uc$ng t/e num#er o /$ an& a$rcrat ermanentl) tat$one& $n t/e reg$on% T/$ wa

&ue r$mar$l) to cot actor an& eronnel reure, #ut aga$n $t wa rece$e& o$t$el) #)

Te/ran% T/ere wa grow$ng awarene among >a/$ngton trateg$t t/at t/e $n$t$al aumt$on

t/at t/e =n$te& *tate coul& alone conront #ot/ 6ran an& 6ra5 ma) /ae #een eaggerate&% ;t a

m$n$mum, a t/e t/reat rom 6ran aeare& to #e &ecl$n$ng, t/e =n$te& *tate coul& $ll aor& to

&el$#eratel) cult$ate enem$e%

n June 17, 1998, *ecretar) o *tate ;l#r$g/t &el$ere& a maor eec/ t/at reon&e&

almot o$nt-#)-o$nt to t/e $ue t/at @/atam$ /a& a&&ree& $n /$ $nter$ew $ mont/

earl$er%44

T/e eec/ wa nota#le or $t conc$l$ator) tone an& or t/e a#ence o t/e r/etor$c t/at/a& c/aracter$Ae& =%*% tatement a#out 6ran oer t/e re$ou $e )ear% ;mong ot/er t/$ng, $t

oere& a 5ual$$e& aolog) or t/e =%*% role $n oert/row$ng oa&e5 $n 19!3% T/e eec/

oere& no ec$$c new ol$c$e or $n$t$at$e, #ut $t /el& out t/e roect or a new #eg$nn$ng:

>e are rea&) to elore urt/er wa) to #u$l& mutual con$&ence an& ao$&

m$un&ertan&$ng% T/e 6lam$c Beu#l$c /oul& con$&er arallel te% 6 uc/ a roce

can #e $n$t$ate& an& uta$ne& $n a wa) t/at a&&ree t/e concern o #ot/ $&e, t/en we

$n t/e =n$te& *tate can ee t/e roect o a er) &$erent relat$on/$% ; t/e wall o

m$trut come &own, we can &eelo w$t/ t/e 6lam$c Beu#l$c, w/en $t $ rea&), a roa&

ma lea&$ng to normal relat$on% #$oul), two &eca&e o m$trut cannot #e erae&oern$g/t% T/e ga #etween u rema$n w$&e% ?ut $t $ t$me to tet t/e o$#$l$t$e or

#r$&g$ng t/$ ga%4!

$nternat$onal $netment $n 6ran$an o$l an& ga, art$cularl) #) coman$e w/o /a& maor

commerc$al $nteret $n t/e =n$te& *tate t/at m$g/t #e t/e target o ;mer$can retal$ator) act$on%

6ran $na&ertentl) a$te& t/$ roce #) $n$t$ng on retr$ct$e contract t/at eerel) l$m$te&

t/e ro$t marg$n t/at ore$gn coman$e coul& /oe to real$Ae, t/ere#) re&uc$ng t/e $ncent$e

or t/e coman$e to &e) t/e =n$te& *tate%

44*ecretar) o *tate a&ele$ne @% ;l#r$g/t, Bemar+ at 1998 ;$a *oc$et) D$nner, >al&or-;tor$a otel, Mew .or+, Mew .or+, June 17, 1998, a; releae& #) t/e $ce o t/e*o+eman, June 18, 1998, =%*% Deartment o *tate, June 18, 1998%4!6#$&%

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T/e =n$te& *tate a a $&&le Eat Power

?) t/e en& o t/e twent$et/ centur), t/e =n$te& *tate /a& eta#l$/e& a reence $n t/e

Per$an (ul t/at wa more $gn$$cant $n term o ower an& $nluence t/an an) nat$on $n t/e

reg$on% T/e m$l$tar) ac$l$t$e t/at /a& #egun to #e &eeloe& &ur$ng t/e latter tage o t/e 6ran-

6ra5 war, an& w/$c/ /a& grown enormoul) &ur$ng erat$on Deert *torm, rema$ne& $n lace

ater t/e l$#erat$on o @uwa$t%

6t $ not an eaggerat$on to a) t/at t/e =%*% (ul reence wa t/e cone5uence o a

$ngle eron, *a&&am ue$n, t/e ruler o 6ra5% 6t wa /$ $ll-ate& attac+ aga$nt 6ran $n 1980,

an& t/e u#e5uent 6ran$an counterattac+, t/at erua&e& t/e reg$onal ;ra# tate to call o$c$all)

or a =%*% m$l$tar) reence an& to ro$&e &$rect uort, $nclu&$ng ac$l$t$e #ot/ on- an& o-

/ore% T/at wa a /ar contrat to t/e$r at o$t$on, w/$c/ /a& o$c$all) calle& or t/e =n$te&

*tate to leae t/e (ul t/oug/, oten uno$c$all), let $t #e +nown t/at t/e) were content t/at

=%*% orce woul& #e ut Ioer t/e /or$Aon $n t/e eent o trou#le% *a&&amG $na$on o@uwa$t $n 1991 accelerate& t/at roce enormoul) an& con$nce& man) ;ra# tate o t/e

reg$on t/at t/e) re5u$re& ala#le m$l$tar) rotect$on t/at wa ne$t/er art t$me nor largel)

$n$$#le%

coure, a&&$t$onal =%*% ol$t$cal an& econom$c $nluence, w/$c/ /a& #een con$&era#le

or man) )ear, lowe& $n w$t/ t/e m$l$tar) reence% Deene act were comlete&, oten w$t/ a

m$n$mum o anare $n a conce$on to re$&ual ;ra# nat$onal$t en$t$$t$e, #ut w$t/

cone5uence or t/e $nten$t) o econom$c nota#l) #ut not eclu$el) arm ale an& ol$t$cal

$nteract$on #etween t/e ;ra# tate o t/e (ul an& t/e =n$te& *tate% D$lomat$c reence wa

ugra&e&, an& oc$etal contact, art$cularl) acce to =%*% e&ucat$on, #loome&% T/e $g/t o=%*% m$l$tar) eronnel, eec$all) $n Per$an (ul ort, wa no longer a rar$t), an& &$rect

m$l$tar)-to-m$l$tar) contact &eeene&% T/e =n$te& *tate 5u$etl) negot$ate& ecur$t) agreement

w$t/ all o t/e ;ra# tate $n t/e (ul an& #u$lt a tr$ng o oerat$onal m$l$tar) ac$l$t$e N naal

an& a$r #ae, re-o$t$one& torage ac$l$t$e, an& $ntell$gence outot -- $n a num#er o

locat$on t/roug/out t/e (ul% ;lt/oug/ t/ee ac$l$t$e ro$&e& muc/ greater le$#$l$t) or

=%*% oerat$on $n t/e reg$on, t/e) were alo a o$nt o en$t$$t) or t/e ;ra# /ot, w/o eare&

#e$ng een a =%*% &een&enc$e% [Pleae a) a wor& a#out t/e $ue o =* #aeSac$l$t$e $n t/e

(ul, $e% @uwa$t, Vatar, man, an& cloe &eene t$e w$t/ ;ra#$an en$nula tate% ;lo coul&

eculate a#out t/e uture o #ae $n 6ra5

;t t/e m$llenn$um, t/e =n$te& *tate /a& oercome all o $t $n$t$al /e$tat$on an& /a&

#egun to la) a $gn$$cant an& uta$ne& reg$onal role% Cur$oul), *a&&am ue$n rema$ne& t/e

r$mar) reaon or t/e =n$te& *tate to ma$nta$n orce $n t/e reg$on an& alo t/e rat$onale or

reg$onal tate to accet t/em% *a&&am /a& a$le& to ollow t/e =%*% cr$t an& $ml) a&e awa)

ater /$ &eeat $n @uwa$t% T/e =n$te& *tate cont$nue& to $ew /$m an& /$ reg$me a a #one $n

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22/23

t/e t/roat% T/e $nternat$onal anct$on were ta+$ng a /$g/ toll on t/e 6ra5$ eole, an& =%*%

warlane were $nole& $n nearl) &a$l) arme& ort$e oer t/e @ur&$/ area o t/e 6ra5$ nort/

an& t/e largel) */$a area o t/e out/% T/$ ol$c) wa cotl), #ot/ $n term o &ollar an&

ol$t$cal ca$tal $n t/e reg$on% T/e =n$te& *tate eare& t/at reg$onal tate woul& #ecome

$ncrea$ngl) unw$ll$ng to ro$&e t/e a$r#ae an& ot/er uort to uta$n t/$ arme&

e5uetrat$on o a ellow ;ra# countr) rom t/e $nternat$onal commun$t)% *ec$$call), *au&$

;ra#$a wa un&er reure rom t/e &$$&ent ra&$cal ama #$n La&en an& /$ ollower w/o

&enounce& t/e reence o =%*% m$l$tar) orce on t/e acre& lan& o t/e ;ra#$an Pen$nula %

;ll t/e ;ra# tate $n t/e reg$on ecet @uwa$t regar&e& t/e =%*% m$l$tar) reence on

t/e$r o$l a a en$t$e $ue an& tr$e& to m$n$m$Ae u#l$c attent$on an& awarene%

; t/e =n$te& *tate entere& t/e 2000 re$&ent$al elect$on, t/e &$lemma o /ow to &eal

w$t/ 6ra5 wa one o t/e ew ore$gn ol$c) $ue to get muc/ attent$on% 6n t/e econ&

re$&ent$al &e#ate, (oernor (eorge >% ?u/ gae ome $n&$cat$on o t/e +$n& o ol$c) /e

woul& reer:

B% LEBEB: .ou coul& get /$m [*a&&am ue$n out o t/ere(% ?=*: 6W& l$+e to, o coure% % % %e $ a &anger we &onWt want /$m $/$ng $n

trou#le& water $n t/e $&&le Eat ;n& $tW go$ng to #e /ar& to -- $tW go$ng to #e

$mortant to re#u$l& t/at coal$t$on to +ee t/e reure on /$m%4K

er t/e re$ou )ear, a num#er o rom$nent uorter o t/e ?u/ cama$gn /a&

$gne& tu&$e an& oen letter call$ng or t/e remoal o *a&&am ue$n rom ower, u$ng

orce $ necear)% 6n 1998 a grou wrote to Pre$&ent Cl$nton argu$ng t/at IT/e onl) acceta#le

trateg) $ one t/at el$m$nate t/e o$#$l$t) t/at 6ra5 w$ll #e a#le to ue or t/reaten to ue

weaon o ma &etruct$on% 6n t/e near term, t/$ mean a w$ll$ngne to un&erta+e m$l$tar)

act$on a &$lomac) $ clearl) a$l$ng% 6n t/e long term, $t mean remo$ng *a&&am ue$n an&/$ reg$me rom ower% T/at now nee& to #ecome t/e a$m o ;mer$can ore$gn ol$c)%47

$rtuall) eer) $gnator) o t/at letter eentuall) #ecame an o$c$al $n t/e a&m$n$trat$on o

(eorge >% ?u/%

4KTrancr$t o t/e &e#ate, /ote& #) J$m Le/rer o t/e P?* Mewour% Pote& at/tt:SSwww%#%orgSnew/ourS##Select$onS2000&e#ateS2n&e#ate1%/tml

47*ee t/e letter to Pre$&ent Cl$nton ro&uce& #) T/e Proect For T/e Mew ;mer$can Centur) onJanuar) 2K, 1998, $gne& #) man) $n&$$&ual w/o woul& later #ecome +e) ore$gn an& ecur$t)o$c$al o t/e ?u/ a&m$n$trat$on% [aa$la#le at:/tt:SSwww%newamer$cancentur)%orgS$ra5cl$ntonletter%/tm *ee alo I; Clean ?rea+: ; Mew*trateg) or *ecur$ng t/e Bealm,a reort reare& #) T/e 6nt$tute or ;&ance& *trateg$c an&Pol$t$cal *tu&$eG O*tu&) (rou on a Mew 6rael$ *trateg) Towar& 2000,O ote& at/tt:SSwww%$raeleconom)%orgStrat1%/tm

22
http://www.newamericancentury.org/iraqclintonletter.htmhttp://www.israeleconomy.org/strat1.htmhttp://www.israeleconomy.org/strat1.htmhttp://www.newamericancentury.org/iraqclintonletter.htmhttp://www.israeleconomy.org/strat1.htm


23/23

;t t/e turn o t/e m$llenn$um, t/e net act o =%*% engagement $n t/e Per$an (ul /a&

)et to #e la)e& out #ut t/e tage wa alrea&) et% [Do )ou want to ean& a l$ttle on t/$

t/oug/t

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