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8/15/2019 SIA MS 22-Mar-07
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March 22, 2007
Oil & GasUK E&Ps – Time to Drill
We have a preference for explorers rather than
producers. Exploration activity is due to accelerate
during the course of the year. The level of newsflow this
will generate will inevitably lead to an increased level of
interest in the sector after a period of weak performance,
in our view. Exploration activity is particularly focused onSoco and Tullow in the first part of the year and then
Dana in the latter part. Soco, Tullow and Dana are our
preferred names in the sector.
We are initiating on Soco International with an
Overweight-V rating and price target of 1800p/share.
Our price target implies upside potential of 28%.
Following recent exploration success in Vietnam at the
end of 2006, Soco is carrying out a very active
exploration programme in Vietnam in 2007, which
should generate a significant level of newsflow over the
next 6-12 months, and could act as a material catalyst
for the shares. Soco is drilling for prospects in 2007 thatare worth around 2370p/share unrisked, in our view.
We are also resuming coverage on Cairn Energy
with an Equal-weight-V rating and a price target of
1750p. Our price target implies upside potential of 13%.
With the partial-IPO of Cairn India complete, the market
will focus on progress from the midstream negotiations
with the Indian government and ongoing development of
the Rajasthan fields. We believe that Cairn offers good
valuation support and absolute upside from current
levels. However, Cairn is less likely to outperform the
explorers in our view and we believe significant progress
on the Rajasthan development needs to be made beforewe see a re-rating in the shares.
E&P sector to outperform large caps and the wider
market. M&A looks set to increase in the industry and is
likely to support valuations, in our view. Risks to the oil
price are upwards and the E&Ps are leveraged to this.
We believe valuation is at its most attractive for the last
12 months and the sector is now discounting around
$45/bbl.
GICS Sector: Energy
Strategists' Recommended Weight 11.
MSCI Europe Weight 9.
Companies Featured
Company Rating Price Tar
Soco International Overweight-V 180Tullow Oil Overweight-V 46
Dana Petroleum Overweight-V 130
Cairn Energy Equal-weight-V 175
Burren Energy Equal-weight-V 81
What’s Changed
Company – What’s changed From
Dana – Price Target 1405p to 130
Tullow – Price Target 450p to 46
Dana – ModelWare 2007e EPS 95.05 to 81
Tullow – ModelWare 2007e EPS 27.11 to 24
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
What’s New
Company What’s n
Soco International Initiating covera
Cairn Energy Resuming covera
Burren Energy Assuming covera Source: Morgan Stanley Research
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business wicompanies covered in its research reports. As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm mayhave a conflict of interest that could affect theobjectivity of this report. Investors should considerthis report as only a single factor in making theirinvestment decision. Customers of Morgan Stanleyin the U.S. can receive independent, third-partyresearch on the company covered in this report, at cost to them, where such research is available.Customers can access this independent research www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch or can ca1-800-624-2063 to request a copy of this research
For analyst certification and other importandisclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered pursuant to NASD/NYSE rul
Morgan Stanley & Co. InternationalLimited+
Michael J [email protected]
+44 (0)20 7425 3016
Theepan Jothilingam, [email protected]
+44 (0)20 7425 9761
Neil W Perry+44 (0)20 7425 8903
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
E U R O P E
ndustry View
Attractive
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2
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Top Picks in UK E&P Sector
The E&P sector has been a poor performer so far this year,
but we think that this has now thrown up some interesting
opportunities. Despite a withdrawal of liquidity from the
market, nothing has changed in terms of the fundamental
picture for the E&Ps or energy more broadly. In fact, one could
argue that the backdrop is more favourable today than it
looked at the end of last year.
Exhibit 1
E&P sector has been a poor performer this year
-9.7%
-3.7%
-17.9%
-26.3%
2.1%
-18.6%-19.5%
17.2%
-1.4%
-14.1%
-17.5%
-9.4%
-11.4%
-2.3%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Cairn Tullow Burren Premier Dana Venture Soco
YTD 6 months
Source: Datastream
Weak performance driven by market concerns, macroconcerns and poor newsflow
The weakness in the E&P sector so far this year has been
driven by a combination of events.
1) The recent market correction hit higher beta stocks the
hardest. It is inevitable that the E&Ps suffer under these
conditions.
2) At the beginning of the year, the oil price fell from $62/bbl to
$50/bbl, raising concerns about further declines, but it has
since recovered to around $60/bbl. The UK gas price also fell
to 18 pence per therm driven by oversupply at a time ofunseasonably warm weather.
3) Poor newsflow has tended to dominate over the last four or
five months, with exploration disappointment at Dana on two
high potential wells and the disappointing debut of Cairn India.
With the exception of Tullow there has been little to raise
interest in the sector on the more positive side.
However, we now think that both the macro risk and the
newsflow outlook are becoming more positive
We now see some of the E&Ps as fundamentally
undervalued. We firmly expect to see material performance
from these levels by the end of this year. The main drivers are:
• Increased rate of exploration
• Valuations at the lowest levels relative to core values
for 12 months
•
Oil price risk on the upside
• Increased consolidation in the sector
• UK gas price offers interesting entry point
Ultimately, the most important driver of the E&P sector is
exploration. Over the course of the next 12 months we expect
the companies we cover to drill on prospects worth (unrisked)
around 90% of their current value. The activity is biased
towards Soco and Tullow in the first half of the year. Soco
remains fairly consistently exposed during the course of the
year, and Dana picks up in the second half. This is in stark
contrast to the last six months, when only Tullow recordedmaterial success and the number of high impact wells in
aggregate was relatively low. This is a step change in activity.
UK E&Ps Order of Preference
• Soco
• Tullow
• Dana
• Cairn
• Burren
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3
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
The second most important consideration is of course
valuation. Following the market sell off and the oil price
decline from the middle of last year, we now see the E&Ps inaggregate trading closer to core value than at any time in the
last 12 months. Certainly, macro concerns have justified some
of the underperformance and market concerns cannot be
ignored. But following this period of weakness, we think that
current prices represent very attractive entry points into our
preferred stocks. Most investors who avoided the E&Ps last
year did so because they thought that the sector was
overheated or that there was more oil price risk. Now the
sector is not overheated and the oil price risk is on the upside,
in our view.
Top picks
We believe that, overall, the sub-sector should outperform
energy between now and the end of the year. Furthermore,
we think that this performance could well be front-end loaded
as we see the exploration programmes ramp up. Our top picks
are biased towards those that we think will offer the most
gearing to exploration over the next 6-12 months.
Soco International, Overweight-V, Price Target 1800p
Soco’s recent outperformance relative to the sector still leaves
the shares trading at a 13% discount to our base case NAV.
Our bull case implies some 68% upside potential from current
levels. We believe the upside potential from Soco comes from:
• Exploration exposure. In 2007, Soco is drilling for
prospects in Vietnam that could be worth
2370p/share unrisked.
• Strong operational and earnings momentum. We
also expect production volumes to ramp up from 6.7
kboe/d. in 2006 to 30.3k boe/d by 2010, an increase
of 46% CAGR. We expect earnings to rise by around
45% CAGR over the same period.
• Valuation support from increased M&A activity.
Soco’s management team have previously run two
E&P companies that were acquired by larger oilcompanies (Conquest Exploration and Superior Oil).
Given management history, we think that the sale of
the company at some point is likely to be considered.
This is the key year for Soco in Vietnam, at the end of
which it should have broadly defined the scope of its
business in that country.
Tullow Oil, Overweight-V, Price Target 460p
Valuation support for Tullow is not as compelling as it is for the
other stocks under our coverage, with the shares trading at a7% discount to our base case NAV. However, Tullow is
entering the key phase of its exploration and appraisal
process in Uganda. With the potential for moving from an
interesting domestic development to a company making
international development as well as other exploration options
elsewhere in the portfolio, we think that the risk-reward
remains highly attractive. In aggregate Tullow is drilling for
prospects that could potentially double the share price over
the next 12 months in our view. The three key areas in
Tullow’s exploration programme are:
• Uganda — we have included around 78p/share for
the exploration upside potential in Uganda in ourbase case NAV. However, we believe Uganda could
be worth 290p/share unrisked.
• Namibia — we have included around 40p/share for
the exploration upside potential in Namibia in our
base case NAV. However, we believe Namibia could
be worth around 230p/share unrisked.
• India — we have included around 15p/share for the
exploration upside potential in India in our base case
NAV. However, we believe India could be worth
90p/share unrisked.
Dana Petroleum, Overweight-V, Price Target 1300p
The weakness year to date, driven by the low UK gas price
and drilling disappointments in Kenya and Mauritania, leaves
the shares discounting very little further success from Dana’s
remaining exploration portfolio. The shares are trading at a
20% discount to our base case NAV and our bull case implies
some 79% upside potential from current levels. With implied
downside of just 13% to the core value, there is precious little
“hope value” built into the price, we believe.
• Exploration exposure: We estimate that Dana will
still drill for some 710 mboe or 6.5x the current assetbase in the next two years. It remains one of the the
most geared to the drillbit among its peers. Unrisked
this translates to about 2250p or about 2.0x the
current share price.
• Operational momentum: During the course of this
year we expect volumes to grow by 50% to
34kboe/d.
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4
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
• Deal flow: Alongside exploration Dana has
expanded its portfolio by frequent deal making -
particularly in the North Sea. We expect this processto continue during the course of this year.
• Management buying shares: The company’s
senior management has recently increased its stake
in the business by 6.4%, purchasing an additional42,202 shares.
Exhibit 2
UK E&P sector: Bear, base and bull case valuations
13%7% 11%20%7%
-18%
-54%
-13%
-26%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
TLW CNE DNX BUR SIA
Upside to Base Downside to Core Upside to Bull Downside to Bear
1838p
677p
170p
1470p
2200p1121p
808p
895p
2377p
1596p
1043p
+83%+79%
+54%
+68%
599p
396p
1230p
+42%
1647p
1895p23%
-5%
Price Target
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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5
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
E&Ps – Time to Drill
We believe that now is the right time to be returning to the E&P
sector with a view to potentially material outperformance from
this level to the end of the year.
• Risks to oil prices are upwards over the course of the
year — and the E&Ps are leveraged to this.
• Exploration activity is due to accelerate during the
course of this year following a rather barren period
over the last 12 months with the exception of Tullow.
• Valuation is at its most attractive for the last 12
months.
• The weak UK gas price is fully discounted in share
prices and rather than being a negative at this stage
offers an opportunity to enter at a more attractive
level.
• Consolidation will continue to support and we believe
will accelerate. Timing this is virtually impossible, but
waiting for it to start is pointless.
Exploration activity ramping up
E&P sector performance is all about the E part rather than the
P part. We anticipate a raised level of activity within the sector
over the course of the next 12 months, with a particular focus
on Soco and Tullow in the first part of the year and then Dana
in the latter part.
Exhibit 3
Unrisked exploration as a percentage of share price
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
TLW SIA DNX BUR CNE
2007 2008/9
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
The level of newsflow this can be expected to generate will
inevitably lead to an increased level of interest in the sector
after what has been a period of weak performance and
disappointing newsflow (again with the exception of Tullow).
In aggregate, we see the five companies under coverage
drilling on prospects over the next two years that could add
around 150% to their combined value on an unrisked basis.
On a risked basis, this number comes down to around 20% of
the current values of these companies, but nonetheless
remains very material.
Activity in exploration is inevitably lumpy and interest
inevitably follows activity. In Exhibit 4 we show the timing ofwells by company and the unrisked value of those wells
should they be successful over the course of the next two
years. Activity levels are clearly highest at Tullow and Soco
during the first half of 2007 with increased exposure for Dana
as the year progresses. Notably, Soco remains exposed
consistently throughout the year, whereas others are very
prone to just one or two wells that make all the difference.
• Tullow is the most exposed in the first half of the
year, with major wells expected in Q2 in Namibia and
Uganda and then in Q3 with wells in India.
• Soco also has an active start to the year and remainsrelatively consistent throughout the year with wells
primarily in Vietnam.
• Dana also has a major programme in 2007. It is
slightly more back-end loaded than it is for the
others; however, it is focused on the UK and
therefore perhaps less risky than the wildcatting that
it has been doing over the last six months.
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6
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 4
UK E&Ps: Risked exploration activity in 2007 and 2008 as a percentage of base case NAV
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08
Tullow Soco Dana Burren Cairn
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Valuation at its most attractive for the last 12 months
The E&P sector has been a very weak performer over the
course of the last six months. Oil prices have fallen, UK gas
prices have fallen, exploration at Dana has been unsuccessful
and the market has recently placed a higher discount on risk.
The E&Ps suffer under all these circumstances.
However, at this point, we see the sector trading closer to its
core value than at any time over the course of the last 12
months, and indeed longer.
Exhibit 5
Sell off offers an attractive entry point into UK E&Ps
75
175
275
375
475
575
675
775
875
0 1 - J a n
- 0 4
0 1 - A p r
- 0 4
0 1 - J u l
- 0 4
0 1 - O c t
- 0 4
0 1 - J a n
- 0 5
0 1 - A p r
- 0 5
0 1 - J u l
- 0 5
0 1 - O c t
- 0 5
0 1 - J a n
- 0 6
0 1 - A p r
- 0 6
0 1 - J u l
- 0 6
0 1 - O c t
- 0 6
0 1 - J a n
- 0 7
Cairn Tullow
Burren Premier
Dana Venture
Soco
Source: Datastream
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8
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Consolidation looms
We have touched on this theme many times over the past fewyears. However, it has been accelerating over the last 18
months and we think will extend to UK E&P over the next 12
months for several reasons:
• Finding and development costs continue to rise
• Emerging market players are becoming more
aggressive
• Company oil price views are now in line with or
moving above equity market views
Industry oil price views rising
Over the last five years, the equity market has been
consistently ahead of the industry in raising oil price views.
Equity markets tend to be more heavily influenced by spot
prices and have shorter memories. The oil companies tend to
be less swayed by spot and take longer-term views with the
memories of 1998 and 1999 very much in their minds.
However, since the decline in oil prices began in the middle of
2006, equity market expectations of fears of oil prices have
changed quite dramatically. On the other hand, expectations
of long-term oil prices appear to have continued to rise for Big
Oil. It is impossible to quantify exactly what the base
expectation is for oil companies as they have stopped giving a
view on mid-cycle prices. But their actions seem to indicate
price expectations are now in the $50’s. BP now explicitly
forecasts its volume numbers on the basis of $60/bbl and we
estimate that for most of the oil companies, we would need to
use an oil price of $50 + for them to be able to fund their capex
programme and pay the dividend without borrowing. The cashflow cycle is far tighter at $50 than many would imagine.
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9
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Soco International: Significant Exploration Programme Ahead
We are initiating coverage on Soco International with an
Overweight-V rating and price target of 1800p. Our price target
implies 28% upside potential from current levels.
The shares have recently outperformed the sector following the
full year results and the announcement that the company is
preparing to drill an intensive exploration and appraisal drilling
campaign offshore Vietnam in 2007. The recent performance
still leaves the shares trading at a 13% discount to our base
case NAV. Our bull case implies some 68% upside potential
from current levels. We believe upside potential from Soco
comes from:
1) Exploration upside. The key focus of Soco’s
exploration programme is Vietnam in 2007 and we expect
the company to drill up to 8 wells from now until the end of
the year. Soco is drilling for prospects in Vietnam that we
estimate could be worth 2370p/share unrisked – we have
only included around 340p/share of the exploration upside
potential in Vietnam in our base case NAV.
2) Strong operational and earnings momentum.
Soco offers investors exposure to exploration upside, but
also strong operational and earnings momentum over the
period 2006-2010. We forecast production volumes to
ramp up from 7 kboe/d in 2006 to 30 k boe/d by 2010, anincrease of 46% CAGR. We expect earnings to rise by
around 45% CAGR over the same period. The company
also recently upgraded its reserves to 160.6m bbls at its
full year results from 133.2m bbls in 2005, following
successful appraisal drilling in both Vietnam and Yemen.
We expect more appraisal drilling in Yemen during 2007.
3) Valuation support from increased M&A activity.
Soco has a 16.8% interest in the East Shabwa block in
Yemen, which is a high quality asset operated by Total.
However, Soco’s interests in Block 9-2 and Block 16-1 in
Vietnam would offer the most interest to potential
acquirers in our view. With continued exploration andappraisal success in 2007, Block 9-2 and Block 16-1 in
Vietnam could develop into a “world class” basin. The
international integrated oil companies are already
operating in the region and Soco’s Vietnam assets could
provide a good strategic fit to their portfolios. Block 9-2 and
16-1 are located to the north of ConocoPhillips’ operations
and to the south of Talisman.
What to look for in 2007
2007 – Drilling on Block 16-1 (Vietnam) – unrisked 2370p/sh
H2 07 — Drilling in Yemen – unrisked 74p/sh
H2 07 – Congo/Angola – 2D seismic
Soco’s management team has also previously run two E&P
companies that were acquired (Conquest Exploration and
Superior Oil). Management has recently stated that the
company is “up for sale” every day.
The company has a relatively low free float of around 54% with
the remaining shareholders made up of long-term strategicinvestors and management. The CEO and CFO own around
2% of the issued share capital of the company. We argue that
this shareholder structure could increase the likelihood of M&A,
as majority shareholder approval would be easier to reach if a
bid were to be made for the company.
Valuation and catalysts
Soco’s valuation is attractive on a relative and absolute basis,
in our opinion. The shares are trading at a 13% discount to our
base case NAV of 1596p. We believe short-term newsflow
should act as a catalyst for the shares:
1) Vietnam drilling programme, 2007Soco plans to execute an intensive drilling programme in
Vietnam until the end of the year, drilling eight wells on Block
16-1. The company is currently drilling Prospect “S”, which is
estimated at around 200m bbls of recoverable reserves. We
expect an announcement of the well results in the next 3-4
weeks. We have 47p/share in our base case NAV for Prospect
“S”, but believe the well could be worth up to 280p/share
unrisked.
2) Yemen drilling programme, 2007
Soco plans to drill development and injector wells during 2007
in the Kharir field in Yemen to increase the productivity of the
basin. Water injection and further appraisal drilling could leadto further increases in reserves in our view. In addition, the
company plans to carry out an exploration program in the later
part of the year. We have 12p/share in our base case NAV, but
believe the programme could be worth up to 74p/share.
.
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10
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 9
Soco International: Core Value, Base Case and Bull Case
12
53
34041 23 20 12
19
643
138
1,043
2,377
1,596
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
C o r e
v a l u
e
V i e t n
a m
Y e m
e n
D R C
C o n g o
A n g o l a
V i e t n
a m
Y e m
e n
C o n g o
B a
s e
C a s e
E x
p l o
r a t i o
n
D e v e l o
p m e n t
B
u l l C
a s e
p e n c e / s h
"Base Exploration upside""Base Development
Upside"
Current shareprice 1411p
Increasedsuccess
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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11
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Soco International: Investment Positives
1) Material potential for exploration success in 2007
The key focus is Vietnam with an 8 well exploration program
planned. In addition, the company plans exploratory drilling
towards the end of the year in Yemen following an appraisal
and development drilling campaign during the year. We
estimate on an unrisked basis, exploration contributes about
430p to the base NAV of 1596p. On an unrisked basis, the
exploration portfolio could add up to 3000p of value or double
the current share price.
2) Further reserve and appraisal upside
Soco announced a reserve upgrade from 133.2m bbls to
160.6m bbls at the full year results following recent drillingsuccesses in Vietnam and Yemen. We expect further appraisal
upside potential in 2007 from Yemen (around 25m boe) and in
2008 from Vietnam (around 48m boe) and Congo (26m boe)
and reflected this in our base case. We have included 2P
reserves of 144m boe in our core NAV, applying a 50% risk
factor to the company’s 11.9m 2P reserves in Congo, as the
company plans an exploration and appraisal program in 2008
before developing these reserves. We have also included only
40% of Soco’s 2P reserves in Thailand of 18.4m boe, as the
company has recently signed an agreement that would reduce
its interest in the Bualaung field from 100% to 40%.
3) Operational and earnings momentumWe expect production to to ramp up significantly from 7 kboe/d
in 2006 to around 30 kboe/d in 2010, an increase of 46%. This
growth is underpinned by the development of two major
projects in Vietnam, CNV and TGT. We argue that this growth
alongside a smaller development planned in Thailand
(Buluang) should underpin strong growth in cash flow
generation. Our forecast growth in volumes drives earnings
growth of around 45% CAGR between 2006-2010.
4) Undemanding valuation versus peers
The shares have recently outperformed the sector following the
full year results and the announcement that the company is
preparing to drill the first well of an intensive exploration andappraisal drilling campaign offshore Vietnam in 2007.
However, the recent performance still leaves the shares
trading at a 13% discount to our base case NAV. Our bull case
implies some 68% upside potential from current levels. This
compares with Tullow at 66% and Dana at 79%.
5) Support from M&A activity
We expect the pace of M&A to intensify in the industry over the
next few years. The number of assets available of any real
quality is shrinking and the western oil companies are finding it
harder and harder to access resources. Consolidation in the
industry will provide Soco with valuation support. With
continued exploration and appraisal success in 2007, Soco’s
Vietnamese interests could develop into a “world-class” basin
and we argue that these assets could be of particular interest to
potential acquirers. Soco is predominantly an explorer, not a
developer, and realising value from Vietnam would allow
management to focus on developing its exploration activities in
West Africa, which we expect will be the next focus for Soco
following the exploration programme planned in Vietnam in
2007.
4) Harsh licensing terms in Vietnam is market perception
A widely perceived negative in the market is that the contract
terms in Vietnam are harsh when compared with other
countries. However, following detailed discussions with the
company, while the petroleum contracts signed with
Vietnamese government on Block 9-2 and 16-1 have
similarities to production sharing contracts, there is one key
difference. The profit oil is split between PetroVietnam
(representing the Vietnamese government) and foreign
contractors in line with their interests in the petroleum contract.
There is no additional government take from profit oil, which is
common under most PSCs. This adds material value to the
TGT and CNV field asset values, in our view.
Exhibit 10
Vietnam Licensing Terms
Block 16-1 Block 9-2
Working Interests:
Petro-Vietnam (PV) (%) 41.0 50.0
SOCO VN (%) 28.5 25.0
OPECO (%) 2.0 0.0
PTTEP (%) 28.5 25.0
Summary PSA Terms
Cost Oil (%) 35.0 35 (50 if <20k boe/d)
Profit Oil (%) 65.0 65.0
Profit Oil split
PV (Government) (%) 41.0 50.0Foreign Parties (%) 59.0 50.0
For both Blocks:
Income tax (%) 50.0
Royalty Sliding Scale averaging 8%
Carried costs Recovered out of government cost oilSource: Company data
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12
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Soco International: Investment Negatives
1) Less diversified – around 75% of value in Vietnam
Soco has interests in assets in Yemen, Thailand, Congo
(Republic and DRC) and Angola. However, the majority of the
company’s value and exploration programme, particularly in
2007, is focused in Vietnam. Soco’s Vietnamese interests
represent 79% of our core NAV value and 76% of our base
case NAV. Soco’s Vietnamese assets are held by its 80%
owned subsidiary Soco Vietnam, which has a 25% interest in
Block 9-2 (Ca Ngu Vang) and a 28.5% in Block 16-1 (Te Giac
Trang). Soco also owns a further direct 2% interest in Block
16-1 following its recent acquisition of OPECO for $22m in
June 2006.
Soco’s other core area is Yemen where it has a 16.8% stake in
the East Shabwa Block (operated by Total). This represents
around 14% of our core NAV and 11% of our base case NAV.
We believe that there is further exploration and appraisal
upside from Yemen in 2007.
The portfolio, outside of Vietnam and Yemen, continues to be
developed. The company expects the Bualuang field in
Thailand to be onstream in 2008 - we forecast net production of
around 3.6kb/d rising to around 4.0k b/d by 2009. In addition,
the company is developing its interests in Africa with seismic
testing at the Nganzi field (DRC) planned for 2007 and a drilling
program planned in the Marine XI block in Congo in 2008.
2) Low free float
Soco has a relatively low free float of 54% with the remaining
shares held by long-term strategic investors that have
representatives on the Soco Board. The largest shareholder is
Pontoil Intertrade Ltd, which owns around 20% of the issued
share capital of the company and has been a shareholder
since 1999. The next largest private shareholder is the family
trust of the company’s former chairman, Patrick Maugein, who
died last year, which has around an 8% stake in the company.
We believe the risk of the family trust selling its holding in the
near future is low given that one of the key advisers to the trust
is Soco’s new chairman, Mr Rui de Sousa. Management also
owns around 3% of the business — Ed Story, CEO and
co-founder of Soco, owns around 1.6m shares or 2.2% of the
issued share capital, and Roger Cagle, deputy CEO and CFO
owns 0.7m shares, or 1.0% of the issued share capital.
3) Exploration licences running out in Vietnam
We understand that any field areas not secured in an appraisal
area by December 2007 will have to be relinquished. Soco has
identified a number of exploration prospects that it plans to drill
before the end of the year. The company’s aim is to drill as
many prospects as possible and maximise the potential upside
from the drilling program. The company currently has only one
drilling rig operating at present, which is only available into thesecond quarter of 2007. However, 2 further rigs have been
contracted - one is expected to be available at the end of Q1
and the other in Q2. The company plans to drill 8 exploration
wells on Block 16-1 and 3-5 development wells on Block 9-2
during 2007.
Exhibit 11
Two major developments planned in Vietnam
Vietnam—Two Major Developments in Hand
Source: Company presentation
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13
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Soco — Valuation Scenarios
Exhibit 12
Summary of Base Net Asset Valuation, 2007
NPV (p/share)
Thailand84
Vietnam 824
Yemen 145
Congo 27
Commercial + Contingent 1,080
Petrochina cash payments PV 24
(Net debt)/cash end of 2006 (24)
Overheads (37)
Core value 1,043
Total Risked Exploration 429
Total Risked Development 124
Risked Upside (E, D, A) 553
BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside) 1,596Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Base case valuation — 1,596p
We estimate a base NAV or fair valuation for Soco of 1,596p
per share, assuming a long-term Brent oil price of US$53/bbl.
We provide a full breakdown of the NAV later in this report.
Our price target of 1,800p for Soco is derived by applying
around a 15% premium to our base case NAV of 1,530p. Webelieve this is justified given the material exploration-driven
newsflow that we anticipate in the coming months.
Bull case (2,377p)… and blue sky (3,516p)
Our bull case scenario implies a value of 2,377p or potential
upside of 68% from the current share price. It consists of our
core valuation and then the assumption that the company is
two and half times more successful in the exploration and
development of resources in our base case valuation (up to a
maximum of 100% certainty of success).
We have also estimated a blue sky valuation — this scenario
is a combination of the core value plus the complete de-riskingof potential exploration and development projects
incorporated in our base net asset valuation. We derive a
value of 3,516p on this basis or some 223% potential upside
to current levels.
Core valuation — 1,043p/sh
We estimate that the company’s producing assets have
reserves remaining of some 115 mboe (on an entitlement
basis) or 144m boe (on a working interest basis), which gives
a value of 1,043p. The scenario assumes zero potential
upside from both exploration and development projects in
Soco’s portfolio. We also add the present value of future
deferred payments relating to the sale of Soco’s Mongolian
assets to Petrochina in 2005 (24p/share) and deduct Soco’s
net debt following a $250m convertible bond issue in May
2006 (24p/share) and present value of group overheads
(37p/share).
Exhibit 13
SIA NAV at Different Oil Price Scenarios
Bull case
Bull case
Bear caseBear case
Bear case
Base case
Base case
Base case
Bull case
851p
1,043p 1,147p
1,596p
1,293p
1,760p
1,914p
2,377p
2,627p
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
$40 MS ass. $53 $60
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Currentshareprice 1411p
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
SIA NAV at different oil price scenarios
• At US$53/bbl long term, the shares are trading at a
26% premium to our core valuation.
• At a long-term oil price of US$60, on our bull case
scenario we see upside potential of 68% (to 2,377p).
• However, if the shares were to assume US$40/bbl
and also return to their core valuation (that is, without
any risked upside), Soco could see a fall of 39% from
current levels, on our estimates.
• We estimate around a 1.5% move in the base NAV
for every US$1/bbl movement in the long-term oil
price.
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14
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Tullow — Valuation Scenarios
Exhibit 14
Summary of Base Net Asset Valuation, 2007
Summary Base NAV NPV
(p/share)
UK 68
Congo 22
Cote d'Ivoire 20
Equatorial Guinea 49
Gabon 28
Pakistan 6
Nambia (Kudu Phase 1) 17
Uganda 23
Mauritania 19
Commercial + Contingent 253
PV Tariff Income 11
PV Hedge positions (3)
(Net debt)/cash (63)
Overheads (28)
Core value 170
Total Risked Exploration 205
Total Risked Development 20
Risked Upside (E, D, A) 225
BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside) 396
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Base case valuation — 396p
We estimate a base NAV or fair valuation for Tullow of 396p
per share, assuming long-term prices of US$53/bbl Brent and
38p/th for UK gas prices. We have updated our NAV following
the full year results and increased our risked exploration in
Uganda by around 25p/share. Management indicated a range
for recoverable resources in Uganda of 100-250m barrels from
the existing discoveries to date, which does not include the
deeper primary target at Kingfisher (around 300m boe) that
Tullow plans to drill towards the end of the year. Management
also provided further guidance on the gross upside for the
Ngassa prospect in Uganda (900m boe), Mahogany in Ghana(600m boe) and Matamata (1000m boe). These prospect sizes
are significantly larger than previously indicated and underlines
Tullow’s exploration upside potential. Our NAV also
incorporates the change to our 2007 UK gas price assumption.
Our price target for Tullow is derived by applying around 15%
premium to our base case NAV of 396p. We believe this is
justified given the material newsflow that we anticipate in the
coming months.
Bull case (677p)… and blue sky (1,307p)
Our bull case scenario implies a value of 677p or potential
upside of 83% from the current share price. It consists of our
core valuation and then the assumption that the company is
two and half times more successful in the exploration and
development of resources in our base case valuation (up to a
maximum of 100% certainty of success). Our bull case
valuation derives a value of 1,307p on this basis or some 254%
potential upside to current levels.
The bear case or a core valuation — 170p/sh
We estimate that the company has commercial and contingent
reserves remaining of some 357 mboe (on an entitlementbasis), which gives a value of 170p. The scenario assumes
zero potential upside from both exploration and development
projects in Tullow’s portfolio.
Exhibit 15
TLW NAV at Different Oil Price Scenarios
Bear case Bear case
Base case
Base caseBase case
Bull caseBull case
Bear case
Bull case
139p 170p 187p
396p345p
423p
605p
677p
715p
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
$40 MS ass. $53 $60
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Current shareprice 369p
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
TLW NAV at different oil price scenarios
• At US$53/bbl long term, the shares are trading at a
7% discount to our base case.
• At a long-term oil price of US$60, on our bull case
scenario we see upside potential of 94% (to 715p).
• However, if the shares were to assume US$40/bbl
and also return to their core valuation (that is, without
any risked upside), Tullow could see a fall of 63%
from current levels, on our estimates.
• We estimate around a 1.0% move in the base NAV for
every US$1/bbl movement in the long-term oil price.
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15
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Dana — Valuation Scenarios
Exhibit 16
Summary of Base Net Asset Valuation, 2007
NPV
(p/share)
UK 450
Netherlands 7
Russia 31
Commercial 488
UK 310
Netherlands 10
Commercial + Contingent 809
MV of 17.2% interest in Faroes Petroleum 16
(Net debt)/cash end 2006 128
Overheads (58)
Core value 895
Total Risked Exploration 298
Total Risked Development 36
Risked Upside (E, D, A) 335
Base NAV (Core + Risked upside) 1,230Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Base case valuation —1,230p
We estimate a base NAV or fair valuation for Dana of 1,230pper share, assuming long-term prices of US$53/bbl Brent and
38p/th for UK gas prices. This incorporates the change to our
2007 UK gas price assumption, which reduces our base case
NAV by around 4%. This leaves the shares currently trading at
a 20% discount to our fair value estimate. We provide a full
breakdown of the NAV later in this report. Our price target for
Dana is derived by applying around a 5% premium to our base
case NAV of 1,230p. We believe this is justified given the risk
of higher oil prices, the risk of increased consolidation in the
sector and material newsflow on deals and exploration from
Dana in the coming months.
Bull case (1,838p)… and blue sky (3,417p)Our bull case scenario implies a value of 1,838p or potential
upside of 79% from the current share price. It consists of our
core valuation and then the assumption that the company is
two and half times more successful in the exploration and
development of resources in our base case valuation (up to a
maximum of 100% certainty of success).
We have also estimated a blue sky valuation — this scenario is
a combination of the core value plus the complete de-risking of
potential exploration and development projects incorporated in
our base net asset valuation. We derive a value of 3,417p on
this basis or some 230% potential upside to current levels.
The bear case or a core valuation — 885p/sh
We estimate that the company’s producing assets have
reserves remaining of some 129 mboe (on an entitlement
basis), which gives a value of 895p.
Exhibit 17
DNX NAV at Different Oil Price Scenarios
Bull caseBull case
Bear caseBear caseBear case
Base caseBase case
Base case
Bull case
962895770
1,230
1,314
1,074
1,958
1,838
1,615
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
$40 MS ass. $53 $600
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Current shareprice 1034p
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
DNX NAV at different oil price scenarios
• At a long-term oil price of US$60, on our bull case
scenario we see upside potential of 90% (to 1,958p).
• However, if the shares were to assume US$40/bbl
and also return to their core valuation (that is, without
any risked upside), Dana could see a fall of 25% from
current levels, on our estimates.
• We estimate around a 0.9% move in the base NAV for
every US$1/bbl movement in the long-term oil price.
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16
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Cairn - Valuation Scenarios
Exhibit 18
Summary of Base Net Asset Valuation, 2007
NPV (p/share)
Capricorn 25
Cairn India (69%) 1,195
IPO proceeds to be distributed to shareholders 300
Remaining IPO Proceeds 127
Cairn Energy - Core value 1,647
Capricorn - Total Risked Upside 18
Cairn India - Total Risked Upside (69%) 229
Risked Upside (E, D, A) 248
BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside) 1,895Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Base case valuation — 1,895p
We estimate a base NAV or fair valuation for Cairn of 1,895p
per share, assuming long-term prices of US$53/bbl Brent. This
leaves the shares currently trading at a 23% discount to our fair
value estimate. We provide a full breakdown of the NAV later
in this report. We have set our 12 month price target at around
a 10% discount to our base case NAV at 1,895p. We feel this is
justified given the risks around development of the Rajasthan
fields, the continued discount of Cairn India to what we see as
fair value and the lack of material exploration newsflow in the
short-term.
Bull case valuation — 2,200p
Our bull case scenario implies a value of 2,200p or potential
upside of 42% from the current share price. It consists of our
core valuation and then the assumption that the company is
two and half times more successful in the exploration and
development of resources in our base case valuation (up to a
maximum of 100% certainty of success). These include:
• Enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Cairn has stated that
there is a strong likelihood that it will be able to use
EOR on the Northern fields and increase 2P reserves.
• Raising recovery factors to 35% on Mangala,Aishwariya, and Bhagyam: Individual field RFs
indicated by Cairn imply an aggregate RF of 33% for
the three largest Northern fields with an estimate for
Mangala at 36%. While not all fields or reservoirs are
alike, we believe that there is the possibility to
increase these recovery factors.
• Value of additional discoveries: Cairn has less
exposure to exploration than its peers. However,
exploration drilling planned for the Ravva (India) and
Sangu (Bangladesh). Cairn also has a 10% interest in
the UD-1 well in the KG basin.
The core valuation (1,647p/sh)… bear case (1,470p/sh)
We estimate Cairn’s core value at 1,647p, which is about 7%
above the current share price. Cairn’s 69% stake in Cairn India
represents around 73% of the core value, with the remaining
value split between the net IPO proceeds (26%) and Capricorn
(1.5%), which principally includes Bangladesh. We estimate
Cairn’s bear case at 1,470p/sh, which is around a 5% discount
to the current share price. Our bear case assumes:
• The discount on the crude sales agreement is 15%,
higher than Cairn management’s expectations of3-10% (and our base case assumption of 10%)
• Cairn pays its share (70%) of the Mangala/Viramgam
340km crude pipeline and is not eligble for cost
recovery, impacting our Cairn India NAV by $240m
• Cairn India has to pay CESS production tax (at Rs
900/MT), impacting our Cairn India NAV by $260m.
Exhibit 19
CNE NAV at Different Oil Price Scenarios
Core case Core caseCore case
Base case
Base case
Base caseBull case
Bull case
Bull case
1,404p 1,647p 1,772p
1,895p
1,602p
2,046p
1,852p
2,200p
2,380p
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
$40 MS ass. $53 $60
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
Current shareprice 1546p
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Cairn NAVs at different oil price scenarios
• Cairn offers the least spread in terms of our valuation
scenarios versus the current share price with our bear
case valuation at some 1,470p (-5%) while the bull
case implies some 42% potential upside at 2,200p.
This is due partly to the high contribution from the
core value and also the result of a limited exploration
program. We estimate a 1.3% move in the base NAV
for every US$1/bbl movement in long-term oil prices.
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18
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 22
SOCO International - NAV Summary
Co Ent Rem NPV NPV NPV NPVInterest Reserves
(%) (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Commercial Reserves Country
East Shabwa Yemen 16.8% 8.9 22.6 201 106 145
Buluang Thailand 40.0% 5.2 22.5 116 61 84
Ca Ngu Vang Vietnam 20.0% 32.6 10.7 349 184 252
Te Giac Trang Vietnam 23.8% 65.3 12.1 791 416 572
Commercial Reserves 111.9 1,457 767 1,054
Marine XI Congo 50% 37.5% 2.7 13.5 37 19 27
Contingent Reserves 2.7 37 19 27
Petrochina cash payments PV 33 18 24
(Net debt)/cash end of 2006 (32) (18) (24)
Overheads (50) (27) (37)
Core value 115 1,443 759 1,043
Risked Upside Country Risk Co Ent Rem NPV Risked
Factor Interest Reserves NPV NPV NPV
% (%) (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Exploration (E)
Marine XI Congo 13% 38% 1.5 10.8 16 9 11.7
Marine XI Congo 13% 38% 1.5 10.8 16 9 11.7
Nganzi DRC 13% 85% 2.7 10.8 29 15 20.7
Nganzi DRC 13% 85% 2.7 10.8 29 15 20.7
East Shabwa Yemen 17% 17% 1 20.4 17 9 12.4
Cabinda North Angola 10% 17% 1 10.8 15 8 11.1
Block 16-1- Q Vietnam 17% 24% 3 10.9 32 17 23.5
Block 16-1- S Vietnam 17% 24% 6 10.9 65 34 46.9Block 16-1- T Vietnam 17% 24% 6 10.9 65 34 46.9
Block 16-1- L Vietnam 17% 24% 3 10.9 32 17 23.5
Block 16-1- M Vietnam 17% 24% 6 10.9 65 34 46.9
Block 16-1- N Vietnam 17% 24% 6 10.9 65 34 46.9
Block 16-1- O Vietnam 17% 24% 3 10.9 32 17 23.5
Block 16-1- E Vietnam 10% 24% 12 9.1 114 60 82.1
Total Risked Exploration 56 592 312 429
Development & Appraisal (D&A)
TGT upside - Waterflood Vietnam 25% 24% 2.2 10.9 24 13 17.6
TGT upside - Appraisal Vietnam 17% 24% 4.5 10.9 49 26 35.2
Marine XI Congo 20% 37.5% 2.4 10.8 26 14 18.7
Kharir - Water flood Yemen 20% 16.8% 0.8 20.4 15 8 11.1
Total Risked Development 13 172 91 124
Risked Upside (E, D & A) 68 764 402 553
BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside) 183 2,208 1,161 1,596Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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19
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 23
Tullow Oil - NAV Summary: Core Value
Risk Co Rem NPV NPV NPV NPVFactor Interest Reserves
(%) (%) (2P, mboe) ($/ bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Commercial Reserves Country
CMS area & Thames/Hewett UK Var 64 11.6 745 392 55
M'Boundi Congo 11.0% 16 18.7 305 161 22
Espoir Cote d'Ivoire 21.33% 17 16.0 278 146 20
Ceiba Equatorial Guinea 14.25% 12 16.6 206 108 15
Okume Equatorial Guinea 14.25% 22 21.0 458 241 34
Tchatamba Gabon 25.00% 8 19.4 162 85 12
Etame Gabon 7.50% 2 22.5 44 23 3
Niungo Gabon 40.00% 8 12.4 95 50 7
Turnix Gabon 27.50% 1 19.2 22 12 2
Echira Gabon 40.00% 1 15.3 12 7 1
Limande Gabon 20.00% 1 19.3 17 9 1
Oba, Obangue &Tsengui Gabon Var 2 15.3 28 15 2Chinguetti Mauritania 19.00% 7 20.0 142 75 10
Sara & Suri & Chachar Pakistan 38.18% 11 7.5 83 43 6
Commercial Reserves 173 15.0 2,595 1,366 191
Contingent Reserves Country
Chinguetti phase 3 & 4 Mauritania 25% 19% 2 20.0 35 18 3
Tiof Phase I Mauritania 75% 22% 8 10.0 81 43 6
Kudu Phase 1 Namibia 100% 90% 117 2.0 234 123 17
Uganda (Nzizi and Mputa) Uganda 75% 100% 41 7.5 311 164 23
UK (inc 2006 discs.) UK 16 11.6 183 96 13
Contingent Reserves 184 4.6 844 444 62
PV Tariff Income 158 80 11
PV Hedge positions (41) (21) (3)(Net debt)/cash (884) (449) (63)
Overheads (394) (200) (28)
Core value 357 2,277 1,220 170Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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20
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 24
Tullow Oil- NAV Summary - Risked Exploration
Risked Upside Country Risk Co Rem NPV RiskedFactor Interest Reserves NPV NPV NPV
(%) (%) (2P, mboe) ($/ bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Exploration (E)
UK 20 231 122 17
Bangladesh 5 50 26 4
Cameroon 0 2 1 0
Cote d'Ivoire 8 118 62 9
Gabon 4 55 29 4
Mauritania 29 103 54 8
Namibia 228 571 300 42
India 17 207 109 15
Pakistan 6 48 25 3
Senegal 5 34 18 3
Uganda 143 1,075 566 79
Ghana 4 32 17 2Suriname 8 28 15 2
Falkland Islands 2 5 2 0
Guyane 39 233 122 17
Tanzania 1 5 3 0
Total Risked Exploration 520 2,797 1,472 205
Development & Appraisal (D&A)
Schooner & Ketch & NW upside UK 60% 100% 12 11.6 139 73 10
Bangora -1/Lalmai Bangledesh 100% 30% 7 9.8 67 35 5
Tevet Mauritania 50% 19% 1 3.5 3 2 0
Labeidna Mauritania 20% 22% 0 5.0 2 1 0
Banda Mauritania 20% 24% 4 5.0 20 10 1
Pelican Mauritania 20% 16% 10 3.5 36 19 3
Faucon Mauritania 5% 16% 1 3.5 2 1 0
Total Risked Development 35 269 142 20
Risked Upside (E, D, A) 555 3,066 1,614 225
BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside) 912 5,343 2,834 396Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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21
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 25
Dana Petroleum - NAV Summary: Core Value
Risk Co Rem NPV NPV NPV NPVFactor Interest Reserves
(%) (%) (2P, mboe) ($/ bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Commercial Reserves Country
Anglia UK 25.00% 1.8 6.9 12 7 8
Banff UK 12.40% 2.2 4.3 10 5 6
Caledonia UK 25.78% 0.1 4.9 0 0 0
Claymore UK 7.52% 8.8 4.0 35 19 22
GKA UK 50.00% 32.2 11.3 364 198 230
Hudson UK 47.50% 10.1 16.7 169 92 107
Johnston UK 49.89% 5.9 11.2 66 36 42
Otter UK 19.00% 2.8 18.2 50 27 32
Victor UK 10.00% 1.8 3.5 6 3 4
F-16-E Netherlands 1.18% 0.7 14.9 11 6 7
South Vat Yoganskoye Russia 80.00% 11.7 4.3 50 27 31
Commercial Reserves 78 9.9 773 420 488
Contingent Reserves Country
Under development
Cavendish UK 50.0% 10 12.5 123 67 78
Enoch UK 8.8% 1 17.6 21 12 13
Awaiting development
Babbage UK 40.0% 10 7.1 69 37 43
Barbara UK 66.1% 17 9.9 168 91 106
Christian UK 22.9% 2 9.8 15 8 10
Gunn UK 57.8% 2 7.9 14 8 9
Melville UK 26.6% 1 8.1 11 6 7
Monkwell UK 100.0% 3 14.9 51 28 32
29-2a UK 13.5% 2 8.4 20 11 13
A15-3 Netherlands 9.0% 1 4.8 5 3 3
B17a-6 Netherlands 8.8% 2 6.2 12 6 7Contingent Reserves 51 10.0 509 276 321
MV of 17.2% interest in Faroes Petroleum 25 14 16
(Net debt)/cash end 2006 198 110 128
Overheads (90) (50) (58)
Core value 129 1,415 770 895Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 26
Dana Petroleum - NAV Summary - Risked Exploration
Risked Upside Country Risk Co Rem NPV RiskedFactor Interest Reserves NPV NPV NPV
(%) (%) (2P, mboe) ($/ bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Exploration (E)
Norway Norway Var. Var. 9.8 9.8 69 36 42
Netherlands Netherlands Var. Var. 0 0.3 2 1 1
Mauritania Mauritania Var. Var. 1 3.2 4 2 2
Egypt Egypt Var. Var. 1 4.8 4 2 3
UK UK Var. Var. 19 10.2 195 103 120
Total Risked Exploration potential in 2007 31 8.8 274 144 168
Egypt Egypt Var. Var. 2 4.8 7 4 5
UK UK Var. Var. 10 10.2 106 56 65
Kenya Kenya Var. Var. 0 0.0 0 0 0Australia Australia Var. Var. 2 7.0 16 8 10
Senegal Senegal Var. Var. 15 3.2 48 25 29
Mauritania Mauritania Var. Var. 6 3.2 20 10 12
Morocco Morocco Var. Var. 3 4.8 17 9 10
Total Risked Exploration potential in 2008 39 5.5 214 112 131
Total Risked Exploration 70 7.0 487 257 298
Development & Appraisal (D&A)
UK var. discoveries 4 9.2 39 21 24
Netherlands 0 5.6 2 1 1
Pelican Mauritania 5 3.2 16 8 10
Faucon Mauritania 1 3.2 3 1 2
Total Risked Development 10 60 31 36
Risked Upside (E, D, A) 80 547 288 335
Base NAV (Core + Risked upside) 210 1,962 1,058 1,230Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 27
Cairn Energy NAV Summary
Cairn Energy Group NPV NPV NPVInterest
(%) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Core Value
Capricorn 100% 77 41 25
Cairn India 69% 3,639 1,915 1,195
IPO proceeds to be distributed to shareholders 914 481 300
Remaining IPO Proceeds 386 203 127
Cairn Energy - Core value 5,016 2,640 1,647
Risked Value
Capricorn 100% 56 30 18
Cairn India 69% 699 368 229
Cairn Energy - Risked upside (E, D & A) 755 397 248
Cairn Energy NAV (Core + Risked upside) 5,771 3,037 1,895Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 28
Capricorn NAV Summary
Capricorn Co WI Rem Ent Rem NPV NPV NPV NPV
Interest Reserves Reserves
(%) (2P, mboe) (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Commercial Reserves Area/Country
Sangu Bangladesh 75% 18 10 11.7 117 62 38
Commercial Reserves 18 10 11.7 117 62 38
(Net debt)/cash end 2006 (40) (21) (13)
Overheads 0 0 0
Capricorn - Core value 18 10 77 41 25
Risked Upside Risk Co WI Rem Ent Rem NPV Risked
Factor Interest Reserves Reserves NPV NPV NPV
% (%) (2P, mboe) (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Exploration (E)
Hatia Bangladesh 13% 75% 2 1.2 10.5 12 6 4
Magnama Bangladesh 13% 75% 6 3 10.5 33 17 11
Bangladesh 9 4 45 24 15
Development & Appraisal (D&A)
Sangu south Bangladesh 13% 75% 2 0.8 10.5 8 4 3Sangu - 10 Bangladesh 13% 75% 1 0 10.5 3 2 1
Total Risked Development 2 1 11 6 4
Risked Upside (E, D & A) 11 5 56 30 18
Capricorn NAV (Core + Risked upside) 28 15 133 70 44Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 29
Cairn India NAV Summary
Cairn India Co WI Rem Ent Rem NPV NPV NPV NPVInterest Reserves Reserves
(%) (2P, mboe) (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (Rs m) (Rs /share)
Field Area/Country
Ravva East India 22.5% 24 11 12.3 132 5,873 3
Lakshimi West India 40% 2 2 12.6 20 912 1
Gauri West India 40% 4 4 10.4 45 2,026 1
Mangala, Aishwariya & Bhagyam Rajasthan, India 70% 437 295 14.6 4,299 191,754 108
Saraswati and Raageshwari Rajasthan, India 70% 31 20 12.6 252 11,237 6
Reserves 498 332 14.3 4,749 211,803 119
(Net debt)/cash end 2006 525 23,415 13
Overheads 0 0 0
Cairn India - Core value 498 332 5,274 235,218 132
Risked Upside Risk Co WI Rem Ent Rem NPV Risked
Factor Interest Reserves Reserves NPV NPV NPV
% (%) (2P, mboe) (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (Rs m)(Rs /share)
Exploration (E)
Other exploration (Ravva, N-I) India 20% 70% 21 14 11.1 154 6,847 4
KG basin India 13% 10% 31 15 7.0 107 4,781 3
Total Risked Exploration 52 29 261 11,627 7
Development & Appraisal (D&A)
M, Aishwariya & Bhagyam (EOR) Rajasthan, India 50% Var. 69 45 13.1 585 26,108 15
V&V, Kameshwari, Guda & N-R Rajasthan, India 25% Var. 13 9 11.1 95 4,253 2
Mangala, Aishwariya & Bhagyam (RF) Rajasthan, India 25% Var. 8 5 13.1 71 3,169 2
Total Risked Development 90 59 752 33,531 19
Risked Upside (E, D & A) 142 88 1,013 45,158 25
Cairn India NAV (Core + Risked upside) 641 420 6,286 280,376 158Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 30
Burren Energy - Summary NAV
Co Ent Rem NPV NPV NPV NPVInterest Reserves
(%) (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Commercial Reserves Country
Burun Turkmenistan 100% 47.7 13.0 620 326 235
M'Boundi Congo 37.0% 52.5 19.5 1,026 540 389
Commercial Reserves 100.2 16.4 1,646 866 624
Contingent Reserves Country
Kouakouala Congo 25% 0.5 17.6 9 5 4
Contingent Reserves 0.5 17.6 9 5 4
Investment in HOEC 31.1 17 12
(Net debt)/cash 47.0 25 18
Overheads (150.0) (81) (58)
Core value 101 1,583 832 599
Risked Upside Country Risk Co Ent Rem NPV Risked
Factor Interest Reserves NPV NPV NPV
% (%) (2P, mboe) ($/ ent bbl) ($m) (£m) (p/share)
Exploration (E)
N M'Boundi Congo 17% 35% 1.2 16.2 19 10 7.2
Loufika NW Congo 17% 35% 1.2 16.2 19 10 7.2
Tchivouba Congo 13% 35% 0.9 16.2 14 7 5.4
Zingila Congo 13% 35% 0.9 16.2 14 7 5.4
Nanga Congo 13% 37% 0.9 16.2 15 8 5.7
Dongou Congo 13% 37% 0.9 16.2 15 8 5.7
East Kanayis - Cretaceous prospects Egypt 17% 100% 1.3 14.0 18 9 6.6
East Kanayis - Jurassic prospects Egypt 17% 100% 2.8 14.0 39 20 14.6
North Hughada Egypt 10% 100% 2.3 14.0 32 17 11.9North Lagia Egypt 10% 90% 0.8 14.0 11 6 4.3
Yemen Block 6 Yemen 10% 92% 5.8 8.0 46 24 17.4
Oman Block 50 Oman 5% 40% 7 7.2 50 27 19.1
Total Risked Exploration 26 292 153 110
Development & Appraisal (D&A)
Nebit Dag Turkmenistan 17% 100% 1.3 10.8 13 7 5.1
Burun Gas Export Turkmenistan 17% 100% 5.5 3.6 20 10 7.5
Burun Gas Export assoc condensate Turkmenistan 17% 100% 1.8 10.8 20 10 7.5
Burun (RF to 30% from 22%) Turkmenistan 25% 621% 9.3 10.8 100 53 38.0
Kouilou - 6 shallow wells Congo 17% 35.0% 2.7 16.2 43 23 16.5
M'Boundi (RF to 30% from 23%) Congo 25% 31.5% 3.9 16.2 63 33 23.7
Total Risked Development 24 259 137 98
Risked Upside (E, D & A) 50 551 290 209
BASE NAV (Core + Risked upside) 151 2,134 1,122 808Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Soco International Summary Financials 2004-2010e
Exhibit 31
Soco International Summary Financials 2004-2010
MS P&L (adj excep & specs) $'000 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Brent price $/bbl 38.19 53.72 65.18 58.00 48.00 53.00 53.00
$/£average 1.83 1.83 1.85 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Total Ent production (kboe/d) 2.8 1.7 3.2 3.5 6.6 19.4 21.3
Total WI production (kboe/d) 0.0 5.1 6.7 7.5 16.8 29.0 30.3
Revenue 29,386 57,160 76,476 77,712 148,729 357,741 385,827
Cost of Sales (11,347) (19,588) (21,162) (23,859) (55,118) (124,494) (134,395)
Gross Profit 18,039 37,572 55,314 53,853 93,611 233,247 251,432
Adminstrative expenses (4,039) (5,295) (8,772) (8,860) (8,948) (9,038) (9,128)
Exploration cost written off (1,946) (1,013) (231) 0 0 0 0
Operating profit 12,054 31,264 46,311 44,994 84,663 224,209 242,304
Investment revenue 659 2,042 9,292 12,760 3,108 1,196 1,405
Other Gains and losses 113 853 690 0 0 0 0Finance costs (95) (497) (8,136) (9,892) (10,515) (13,501) (12,281)
Profit before tax 12,731 33,662 48,157 47,862 77,256 211,904 231,428
Income tax expense (6,686) (13,366) (19,094) (19,145) (33,290) (95,357) (104,143)
Profit for the period - Adjusted 6,045 20,296 29,063 28,717 43,966 116,547 127,285
Per share data (cents) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
No. Shares (avg, basic) 69,741 70,003 70,530 70,146 70,146 70,146 70,146
No. Shares (avg, diluted) 78,813 79,437 78,766 78,555 78,555 78,555 78,555
Adj EPS - basic (cents) 8.67 29.02 41.32 40.94 62.68 166.15 181.46
Adj EPS - diluted (cents) 7.67 25.61 36.95 36.56 55.97 148.36 162.03
ModelWare EPS (cents) 7.67 25.61 36.95 36.56 55.97 148.36 162.03
Cash flow ($'000) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Operating profit 14,210 31,264 46,311 44,994 84,663 224,209 242,304
Depletion, depreciation & amortisation 6,461 7,325 9,526 9,544 21,124 48,776 52,981
Working capital (3,134) 3,872 (3,443) 0 0 0 0
Other 7,160 521 560 0 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations (pre-int/tax) 24,697 42,982 52,954 54,537 105,787 272,985 295,285
Interest paid/received 601 1,483 (981) 2,869 (7,407) (12,306) (10,876)
Income tax paid (6,141) (13,929) (18,743) (19,145) (33,290) (95,357) (104,143)
Cash flow from operations 19,157 30,536 33,230 38,261 65,090 165,323 180,267
Disposals 19,899 27,510 0 0 0 0 0
Shares issued 660 (1,823) 231,594 0 94,419 0 0
Total sources of funds 39,716 56,223 264,824 38,261 159,509 165,323 180,267
Capex (27,583) (76,175) (114,339) (200,000) (170,000) (120,000) (120,000)
Acquisitions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Share purchases 0 0 (13,634) 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total uses of funds (27,583) (76,175) (127,973) (200,000) (170,000) (120,000) (120,000)
Cash surplus / (deficit) 12,133 (19,952) 136,851 (161,739) (10,491) 45,323 60,267
FX / other 96 (203) (27) 0 0 0 0Decrease in net debt 12,229 (20,155) 136,824 (161,739) (10,491) 45,323 60,267
Balance Sheet (£'000) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Net debt (71,122) (50,967) 32,442 194,181 299,091 253,768 193,501
Total debt 0 0 220,233 220,233 314,652 273,861 219,621
Equity (inc mins) 247,187 266,239 295,792 324,509 368,475 485,022 612,308
Capital employed 176,065 215,272 328,234 518,690 667,566 738,791 805,809
Debt/Equity (%) 0 0 74 68 85 56 36
Debt/Debt & Equity (%) 0 0 43 40 46 36 26
Net debt/Equity (%) -29 -19 11 60 81 52 32
Net debt/Net debt & Equity (%) -40 -24 10 37 45 34 24
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Tullow Oil Summary Financials 2004-2008e
Exhibit 32
Tullow Oil Profit & Loss: 2004-08e
MS P&L (adj excep & specs) £000 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Brent price $/bbl 38.19 53.72 65.18 58.00 48.00 53.00 53.00
UK - (p/therm) 0.00 36.98 43.43 33.50 38.20 38.20 38.20
$/£average 1.83 1.83 1.85 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Total Ent production (kboe/d) 38.9 47.1 54.0 69.7 70.5 55.1 44.5
Total WI production (kboe/d) 40.6 58.5 64.7 81.6 83.0 69.5 58.6
Revenue 225,256 445,232 593,668 648,323 620,612 501,093 411,572
Cost of Sales (141,228) (243,149) (243,116) (294,559) (302,617) (235,722) (196,709)
Gross Profit 84,028 202,083 350,552 353,764 317,995 265,371 214,862
Adminstrative expenses (10,926) (13,793) (15,396) (15,550) (15,705) (15,862) (16,021)
Profit on sale of license interest/ oil & gas assets 2,292 36,061 0 0 0 0 0
Exploration cost written off (17,961) (25,783) (30,151) (31,500) (31,500) (31,500) (31,500)
Other expenses (647) 0 0 0 0 0 0Operating profit 56,786 198,568 305,005 306,714 270,790 218,008 167,341
Finance revenue 3,458 4,367 5,961 4,309 (404) (2,519) (5,526)
Finance costs (13,449) (24,197) (17,137) (20,761) (29,026) (29,026) (29,026)
Profit before tax 46,795 178,738 293,829 290,262 241,360 186,463 132,789
Income tax expense (15,460) (63,751) (114,968) (110,299) (91,717) (70,856) (50,460)
Profit for the period - Adjusted 31,335 114,987 178,861 179,962 149,643 115,607 82,329
Net (Loss)/Gain on hedging instruments 0 (1,851) 12,522 0 0 0 0
Profit for the period - Reported 31,335 113,136 191,383 179,962 149,643 115,607 82,329
Per share data (pence) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
No. Shares (avg, basic) 532,980 646,638 650,215 717,005 717,005 717,005 717,005
No. Shares (avg, diluted) 539,023 659,852 661,950 726,949 726,949 726,949 726,949
EPS adjusted - basic (pence) 5.88 17.78 27.51 25.10 20.87 16.12 11.48
EPS adjusted - diluted (pence) 5.81 17.43 27.02 24.76 20.59 15.90 11.33
EPS reported - basic (pence) 5.88 17.50 29.43 25.10 20.87 16.12 11.48
EPS reported - diluted (pence) 5.81 17.15 28.91 24.76 20.59 15.90 11.33
ModelWare EPS 5.39 11.96 27.02 24.76 20.59 15.90 11.33
DPS (pence) 1.75 4.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
e = Morgan Stanley Research est imatesSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Note: Tullow 2006 financials shown have not been adjusted for the full year 2006 results.
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 33
Tullow Oil Balance Sheet & Cash Flow: 2004-08e
Cash flow (£000) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010EOperating profit 46,795 178,579 307,851 290,262 241,360 186,463 132,789
Depletion, depreciation & amortisation 81,098 119,697 131,575 166,353 170,743 132,921 110,923
Working capital 4,243 -35,622 11,902 0 0 0 0
Other 12,181 -8,644 34,812 31,500 31,500 31,500 31,500
Cash flow from operations (pre-int/tax) 144,317 254,010 486,140 488,114 443,604 350,884 275,213
Interest paid/received 9,991 19,830 11,176 16,452 29,430 31,545 34,552
Income tax paid -14,497 -25,360 -80,852 -144,500 -121,692 -98,704 -73,167
Cash flow from operations 139,811 248,480 416,464 360,066 351,341 283,726 236,598
Disposals 4,730 88,996 727 0 0 0 0
Shares issued 120,913 1,570 1,772 0 0 0 0
Total sources of funds 265,454 339,046 418,963 360,066 351,341 283,726 236,598
Capex -95,105 -368,086 -342,385 -370,000 -340,000 -300,000 -300,000
Acquisitions -166,055 0 -40,000 -270,000 0 0 0
Dividends -6,995 -14,555 -32,744 -36,347 -36,347 -36,347 -36,347
Share purchases 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Other -9,108 -27,605 -13,038 -16,452 -29,430 -31,545 -34,552
Total uses of funds -277,263 -410,246 -428,167 -692,799 -405,777 -367,893 -370,899
Cash surplus / (deficit) -11,809 -71,200 -9,204 -332,733 -54,436 -84,167 -134,301
FX / other -110 12,638 -3,281 0 0 0 0
Decrease in net debt -11,919 -58,562 -12,485 -332,733 -54,436 -84,167 -134,301
Balance Sheet (£000) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Net debt 63,630 132,986 166,018 498,751 553,187 637,354 771,655
Total debt 148,700 198,372 322,183 483,766 483,766 483,766 483,766
Equity (inc mins) 375,467 389,019 756,163 899,778 1,013,074 1,092,334 1,138,315
Capital employed 439,097 522,005 922,181 1,398,529 1,566,261 1,729,687 1,909,970
Debt/Equity (%) 40 51 43 54 48 44 42
Debt/Debt & Equity (%) 28 34 30 35 32 31 30
Net debt/Equity (%) 17 34 22 55 55 58 68
Net debt/Net debt & Equity (%) 14 25 18 36 35 37 40
e = Morgan Stanley Research est imatesSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Dana Petroleum Summary Financials 2004-2010e
Exhibit 34
Dana Petroleum Financial Summary: 2004-2010e
P&L £m 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Brent ($/bbl) 38.19 53.72 65.27 58.00 48.00 53.00 53.00
UK - (p/therm) 24.10 36.98 43.16 33.50 38.20 38.20 38.20
$/£average 1.83 1.83 1.84 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Total Ent production (kboe/d) 18.6 19.7 22.3 34.0 45.4 48.0 37.6
Revenue 109,476 165,625 210,243 277,846 322,151 360,322 281,143
Cost of Sales (58,294) (71,836) (81,408) (123,205) (164,286) (173,550) (135,236)
Gross Profit 51,182 93,789 128,835 154,642 157,864 186,772 145,907
Exploration & Evaluation - 13,550 (5,510) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000)
Administrative Expenses (3,363) (6,243) (7,375) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000) (7,000)
Operating Profit 37,754 105,723 109,897 140,642 143,864 172,772 131,907
Gain on Sale of Available-for-Sale Investment - 3,456 - - - - -
Provision for Impairment of Associated Company (2,851) - - - - - -Profit on Ordinary Activities before Int & Tax 34,903 109,179 109,897 140,642 143,864 172,772 131,907
Interest Income 778 1,642 3,416 2,550 2,356 2,859 4,792
Finance Costs (3,200) (3,053) (2,543) - - - -
Profit on Ordinary Activities before Tax 32,481 107,768 110,770 143,191 146,220 175,630 136,699
Taxation (19,805) (43,613) (60,533) (71,596) (73,110) (87,815) (68,350)
Profit for the Financial Year 12,676 64,155 50,237 71,596 73,110 87,815 68,350
Per share data (pence) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
No. Shares (avg, diluted) 79,503 81,235 86,622 87,403 87,403 87,403 87,403
EPS - diluted (pence) 19.8 78.9 57.4 81.3 83.1 99.9 77.6
EPS - ModelWare 19.0 78.5 57.4 81.3 83.1 99.9 77.6
DPS (pence) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cash flow (£m) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Operating profit 34,903 109,179 109,897 140,642 143,864 172,772 131,907
Depletion, depreciation & amortisation (+ explor) 29,489 12,804 38,531 59,092 76,584 80,474 64,395
Working capital -5,725 -7,850 9,713 0 0 0 0Other 3,085 -7,081 4,382 0 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations (pre-int/tax) 61,752 107,052 162,523 199,733 220,448 253,246 196,302
Interest paid/received -1,065 537 1,954 2,550 2,356 2,859 4,792
Income tax paid -6,928 -22,049 -24,936 -78,295 -72,519 -81,133 -78,219
Cash flow from operations 53,759 85,540 139,541 123,988 150,285 174,971 122,875
Disposals 0 13,968 0 0 0 0 0
Shares issued 587 36,560 3,068 0 0 0 0
Total sources of funds 54,346 136,068 142,609 123,988 150,285 174,971 122,875
Capex -32,782 -63,872 -114,649 -140,000 -140,000 -80,000 -80,000
Acquisitions -44 -4,016 -4,310 0 0 0 0
Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Share purchases 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total uses of funds -32,826 -67,888 -118,959 -140,000 -140,000 -80,000 -80,000
Cash surplus / (deficit) 21,520 68,180 23,650 -16,012 10,285 94,971 42,875
FX / other -2,625 4,489 -6,075 0 0 0 0Decrease in net debt 18,895 72,669 17,575 -16,012 10,285 94,971 42,875
Balance Sheet (£m) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Net debt -20,497 -91,827 -110,082 -94,070 -104,355 -199,326 -242,201
Total debt 20,833 11,588 0 0 0 0 0
Equity (inc mins) 157,825 270,675 321,348 392,943 466,053 553,869 622,218
Capital employed 137,328 178,848 211,265 298,873 361,698 354,542 380,017
Debt/Equity (%) 13 4 0 0 0 0 0
Debt/Debt & Equity (%) 12 4 0 0 0 0 0
Net debt/Equity (%) -13 -34 -34 -24 -22 -36 -39
Net debt/Net debt & Equity (%) -15 -51 -52 -31 -29 -56 -64
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Burren Energy Summary Financials 2004-2010e
Exhibit 35
Burren Energy Profit & Loss: 2004-2010e
MS P&L (adj excep & specs) $m 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Brent price $/bbl 38.19 55.55 65.18 58.00 48.00 53.00 53.00
$/£average 1.83 1.83 1.85 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Oil Ent production (kboe/d) 14.2 22.4 19.1 23.0 24.2 26.0 29.5
Gas Ent production (mmcf/d) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Ent production (kboe/d) 14.2 22.4 19.1 23.0 24.2 26.0 29.5
Total WI production (kboe/d) 18.3 32.2 34.1 38.0 43.4 46.6 53.0
Revenue 185,787 390,333 416,022 452,124 388,989 464,299 527,368
Cost of sales -87,866 -118,438 -111,405 -115,412 -111,777 -119,243 -138,134
Gross profit 97,921 271,895 304,617 336,711 277,211 345,056 389,234
Administrative expenses -10,723 -15,426 -13,926 -15,000 -16,000 -17,000 -18,000
Other operating expenses -12 -1,411 -19,863 0 0 0 0
Share of associate's profit 0 1,612 3,362 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000Adj. Operating profit 87,186 256,670 274,190 322,711 262,211 329,056 372,234
Interest and investment income 678 1,998 9,722 3,758 3,478 6,910 12,414
Finance costs -1,709 -4,069 -1,456 0 0 0 0
Adj. Profit on ordinary activities before interest 86,155 254,599 282,456 326,469 265,690 335,966 384,648
Tax on profit on ordinary activities -17,748 -33,670 -33,583 -33,000 -22,000 -24,000 -24,000
Adj. Profit attributable to equity holders of parent co 68,407 220,929 248,873 293,469 243,690 311,966 360,648
Exceptional gain on sale of oil & gas assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Currency gain/(loss) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Profit attributable to equity holders of parent company (Rep) 68,407 220,929 248,873 293,469 243,690 311,966 360,648
Per share data (cents) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
No. Shares (avg, basic) 136,635 138,916 140,408 140,169 140,169 140,169 140,169
No. Shares (avg, diluted) 142,813 143,347 144,025 143,969 143,969 143,969 143,969
Rep EPS - basic (cents) 50.07 158.50 177.29 209.37 173.85 222.56 257.30
Rep EPS - diluted (cents) 47.90 153.09 172.81 203.84 169.27 216.69 250.50
Adj EPS - basic (cents) 50.07 159.04 177.25 209.37 173.85 222.56 257.30
Adj EPS - diluted (cents) 47.90 154.12 172.81 203.84 169.27 216.69 250.50
ModelWare EPS 47.91 154.12 172.81 203.84 169.27 216.69 250.50
DPS (cents) 5.53 21.47 26.16 27.13 27.67 28.50 29.36
Adj EPS - basic (pence) 27.30 87.78 96.54 110.19 91.50 117.14 135.42
Adj EPS - diluted (pence) 26.12 84.78 94.10 107.29 89.09 114.05 131.84
DPS (pence) 3.00 12.00 14.00 14.28 14.57 15.00 15.45
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Exhibit 36
Burren Energy Balance Sheet & Cash Flow: 2004-2010e
Cash flow ($m) 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010EOperating profit 87,186 256,670 274,190 322,711 262,211 329,056 372,234
Depletion, depreciation & amortisation 30,183 66,082 75,849 74,843 73,579 78,559 90,593
Working capital -23,960 -38,600 -2,335 -36,622 -17,112 -17,316 -17,880
Other 10,579 -4,369 2,847 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
Cash flow from operations (pre-int/tax) 103,988 279,783 350,551 363,932 321,678 393,298 447,947
Interest paid/received -596 -388 8,046 3,758 3,478 6,910 12,414
Income tax paid -130 -1,625 -26,239 -33,000 -22,000 -24,000 -24,000
Cash flow from operations 103,262 277,770 332,358 334,690 303,156 376,208 436,361
Disposals 0 0 4,461 0 0 0 0
Shares issued 1,083 1,492 491 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Total sources of funds 104,345 279,262 337,310 336,690 305,156 378,208 438,361
Capex -88,749 -150,842 -213,668 -405,000 -170,000 -170,000 -170,000
Acquisitions 0 -26,022 -9,932 0 0 0 0
Dividends 0 -13,697 -35,689 -37,498 -38,248 -39,124 -40,297
Share purchases 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Other -8,468 -3,512 -1,239 0 0 0 0
Total uses of funds -97,217 -194,073 -260,528 -442,498 -208,248 -209,124 -210,297
Cash surplus / (deficit) 7,128 85,189 76,782 -105,808 96,908 169,085 228,064
FX / other 2,711 -370 607 0 0 0 0
Decrease in net debt 9,839 84,819 77,389 -105,808 96,908 169,085 228,064
Balance Sheet ($m) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Net debt -38,462 -121,999 -202,170 -96,362 -193,270 -362,355 -590,419
Total debt 1,500 2,782 0 0 0 0 0
Equity (inc mins) 263,340 472,368 690,201 948,172 1,155,614 1,430,456 1,752,807
Capital employed 224,878 350,369 488,031 851,810 962,344 1,068,101 1,162,388
Debt/Equity (%) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Debt/Debt & Equity (%) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Net debt/Equity (%) -15 -26 -29 -10 -17 -25 -34
Net debt/Net debt & Equity (%) -17 -35 -41 -11 -20 -34 -51
ROAE (%) - 60 46 36 23 24 23
ROACE (%) - 77 62 43 26 30 31
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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32
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Cairn Energy Summary Financials 2004-2010e
Exhibit 37
Cairn Energy Financial Summary: 2004-2010eMS P&L ($m, adj excep & specs) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Brent ($/bbl) 38.19 54.45 65.26 53.00 48.00 53.00 53.00
$/£average 1.83 1.83 1.84 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Total production (kboe/d) 22.8 28.3 25.9 25.1 25.0 62.2 105.7
Revenue 173 263 286 219 205 827 1,618
Production costs -51 -50 -59 -53 -53 -128 -215
Unsuccessful exploration costs -36 -27 -55 -23 -14 -34 -58
Depletion & decommissioning charge -72 -92 -123 -62 -62 -167 -291
Gross profit 14 94 49 81 76 498 1,054
Administrative expenses -27 -38 -55 -45 -47 -50 -52
Adj Operating profit/(loss) -13 56 -7 36 29 449 1,002
Net interest -2 3 -7 -8 -26 -44 -38
Profit/(loss) before taxation -15 59 -14 27 2 404 964
Taxation on profit/(loss) 15 -18 -13 -10 -1 -142 -337
Adj Profit/(loss) for the period attributable to equity holders -0 41 -26 18 1 263 626
Exceptional gain on sale of oil & gas assets 0 11 -4 0 0 0 0
Currency gain/(loss) -16 27 -18 0 0 0 0
Profit for the year attributable to equity holders (Reported) -16 79 -48 18 1 263 626
Per share data (cents) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
No. Shares (avg, basic) 152.5 157.0 157.4 151.4 142.6 131.6 113.4
No. Shares (avg, diluted) 153.7 157.8 157.8 152.1 143.4 132.5 114.3
Rep EPS - basic (cents) (10.3) 50.4 (30.8) 11.7 1.0 198.1 553.0
Rep EPS - diluted (cents) (10.2) 50.1 (30.7) 11.6 1.0 196.9 548.8
Adj EPS - basic (cents) (0.0) 26.3 (16.8) 11.7 1.0 198.1 553.0
Adj EPS - diluted (cents) (0.0) 26.2 (16.7) 11.6 1.0 196.9 548.8
DPS (pence) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adj EPS - basic (pence) (0.0) 14.3 (8.8) 6.2 0.5 104.3 291.1
Adj EPS - diluted (pence) (0.0) 14.3 (32.1) 22.1 1.9 374.0 1,042.8
DPS (USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash flow ($m) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010EOperating profit -13 71 -12 36 29 449 1,002
Depletion, depreciation & amortisation 75 97 128 65 65 170 294
Unsuccessful exploration costs 36 27 55 23 14 34 58
Working capital 5 -5 -2 0 0 0 0
Other 34 -49 7 0 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations (pre-int/tax) 138 140 175 124 108 652 1,354
Interest paid/received 1 3 -5 -4 -10 -15 -13
Income tax paid -9 -7 -3 -2 -0 -35 -84
Cash flow from operations 131 136 168 118 98 602 1,256
Disposals 13 128 0 0 0 0 0
Shares issued 193 4 2 0 0 0 0
Total sources of funds 337 268 170 118 98 602 1,256
Capex -174 -291 -275 -490 -560 -500 -440
Acquisitions -43 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Share purchases -17 -17 -22 -18 -18 -18 -18
Other -15 -6 20 0 0 0 0Total uses of funds -247 -314 -277 -508 -578 -518 -458
Cash surplus / (deficit) 89 -46 -107 -390 -480 84 798
FX / other 2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0
Decrease in net debt 91 -47 -108 -390 -480 84 798
Balance Sheet ($m) 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
Net debt -138 -96 43 438 935 880 107
Equity (inc mins) 711 758 730 730 713 958 1,567
Capital employed 573 662 773 1,168 1,648 1,838 1,674
ROAE (%) 5.6 -3.6 2.4 0.2 31.5 49.6
ROACE (%) 6.3 -3.0 2.4 1.4 16.9 37.2
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Note: Forecasts for 2007-2010e include 100% of Cairn India. Guidance on accounting for minority interest likely to be provided at the full year results on March 26 2007.
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Price Target Methodology
Exhibit 38
Summary of UK E&P Ratings and Price Targets
CompanyCurrent
price (p) RatingPrice
target (p)
ImpliedPotential
Upside (%)
Soco International 1411 Overweight -V 1,800 28
Tullow Oil 369 Overweight -V 460 25
Dana Petroleum 1,029 Overweight -V 1,300 26
Cairn Energy 1,546 Equal-weight -V 1,750 13
Burren Energy 730 Equal-weight -V 810 11Source: Morgan Stanley Research
Our price targets for the UK E&Ps are derived from a
combination of our net asset valuation (based on our long-term
oil price assumption of US$53/bbl Brent and 38.2p/therm for
UK gas prices) and more subjective factors. Our base net
asset valuation is essentially the discounted cash flows on a
field-by-field basis and our best estimate of risk upside. At any
given oil price, we expect E&P shares to trade somewhere
between a core valuation and a bull case scenario. The
premium (or discount) to the core value is mostly determined
by: 1) by short-term oil prices and the perception of longer-term
oil prices and 2) levels of M&A activity in the industry. Within
this framework, individual companies are likely to trade at
different premium/discounts depending on specific stock
characteristics. These are as follows:
•
the potential for upgrades to existing reserves(commercial and technical);
• the potential for appraisal upside from additional
discoveries for which actual volumes are yet to be
determined;
• exploration activity; and
• news flow intensity around the shares.
Exhibit 39
UK gas price and Brent oil price assumptions
2006 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e
UK Gas price (p/therm) 43.2 33.5 38.2 38.2 38.2
Brent ($/bbl) 65.3 58.0 48.0 53.0 53.0Source: Datastream, Morgan Stanley Research; e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Risks to price targets
Oil and gas, and particularly exploration, is a high-risk
business. Putting this together with uncertainty over short-term
commodity prices, we assign a volatility flag to our ratings for
the UK E&P stocks. The following are key drivers for the sector
that may lead the shares to under or outperform our
assumptions:
Downside: 1) Sharp fall in commodity prices; 2) disappointing
exploration or appraisal;. 3) increases to capex/delays to
development projects; 4) increased political and fiscal risks.
Upside: 1) Continued increased in short-term and longer-termassumptions of commodity prices; 2) better than assumed
exploration success; 3) increased M&A activity in the industry.
Specific risks for TLW: On the downside: 1) disappointing
drilling results from the UK, Uganda or India; 2) a significant
delay in the gas sales agreement for phase 1 Kudu and
unsuccessful appraisal for phase 2; 3) operational problems at
existing fields; 4) weakness in the UK gas price. On the upside,
we see risks from materially better success from the drill bit.
Specific risks for Dana: On the downside: 1) disappointing
drilling results from UK, Mauritania and Egypt; 2) operational
problems on existing fields in the UK portfolio; 3) weakness inthe UK gas price. On the upside, we see risks from materially
better success from the drill bit.
Specific risks for Burren: On the downside: 1) operational
difficulties at existing core assets (Burun and M’Boundi); 2)
political instability in Turkmenistan. On the upside we see risks
from: 1) materially better exploration success from drilling in the
Congo; 2) better than anticipated appraisal from water injection
at M’Boundi; 3) an earlier than expected sales agreement for
Turkmenistan.
Specific risk for Cairn: On the downside: 1) delays in the
timetable for development of existing assets in Rajasthan; 2)disappointing appraisal upside from Rajasthan. On the upside,
we see risks from materially better success from the drill bit in
the KG basin.
Specific risks for Soco: On the downside, disappointing
drilling results from Vietnam, Yemen and Congo. On the
upside, we see risks from materially better success from the
drill bit.
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
Disclosure Section
Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited, authorised and regulated by Financial Services Authority, disseminates in the UK research that it hasprepared, and approves solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, research which has been prepared byany of its affiliates.
Analyst CertificationThe following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed andthat they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in thisreport: Michael Alsford.
Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are research analysts.
Global Research Conflict Management PolicyThis research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available atwww.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies.
Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject CompaniesThe following analyst, strategist, or research associate (or a household member) owns securities in a company that he or she covers or recommendsin this report: Theepan Jothilingam - BG Group (common stock). Morgan Stanley policy prohibits research analysts, strategists and researchassociates from investing in securities in their sub industry as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS," which was developed byand is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P). Analysts may nevertheless own such securities to the extent acquired under a prior policy or in amerger, fund distribution or other involuntary acquisition.
As of February 28, 2007, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered inthis report: BP plc, Burren Energy, Cairn Energy, Dana Petroleum, Eni SpA, ERG, Hellenic Petroleum, Neste Oil, Petroplus, Repsol-YPF, Royal DutchShell, TOTAL.
As of March 1, 2007, Morgan Stanley held a net long or short position of US$1 million or more of the debt securities of the following issuers covered inthis report (including where guarantor of the securities): Eni SpA, Mol, Norsk Hydro AS, Repsol-YPF, Royal Dutch Shell, Statoil, TOTAL.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of Cairn Energy, Galp Energia, Petroplus, Saras.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from BG Group, BP plc, Mol, OMV AG,Repsol-YPF, Saras, Statoil.
In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from BG Group, BP plc,Cairn Energy, ERG, Galp Energia, Hellenic Petroleum, Mol, Neste Oil, Norsk Hydro AS, OMV AG, PKN Orlen, Repsol-YPF, Saras, Statoil, TOTAL,Tullow Oil.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated has received compensation for products and services other than investment bankingservices from BG Group, BP plc, Eni SpA, ERG, Hellenic Petroleum, Mol, Motor Oil, Neste Oil, Norsk Hydro AS, OMV AG, Repsol-YPF, Royal DutchShell, Saras, Statoil, TOTAL, Tullow Oil.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking clientrelationship with, the following companies covered in this report: BG Group, BP plc, Cairn Energy, ERG, Galp Energia, Hellenic Petroleum, Mol, NesteOil, Norsk Hydro AS, OMV AG, PKN Orlen, Repsol-YPF, Saras, Statoil, TOTAL, Tullow Oil.
Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the pasthas entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the following companies covered in this report: BG Group, BP plc,Eni SpA, ERG, Hellenic Petroleum, Mol, Motor Oil, Neste Oil, Norsk Hydro AS, OMV AG, Repsol-YPF, Royal Dutch Shell, Saras, Statoil, TOTAL,Tullow Oil.
Within the last 12 months, an affiliate of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated has received compensation for products and services other thaninvestment banking services from Petroplus.
The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have receivedcompensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues andoverall investment banking revenues.
Morgan Stanley & Co. International Ltd. is a corporate broker to BG Group.
Certain disclosures listed above are also for compliance with applicable regulations in non-US jurisdictions.
STOCK RATINGSDifferent securities firms use a variety of rating terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations. For example, MorganStanley uses a relative rating system including terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight or Underweight (see definitions below). A rating system usingterms such as buy, hold and sell is not equivalent to our rating system. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in eachresearch report. In addition, since the research report contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon asinvestment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings)and other considerations.
Global Stock Ratings Distribution(as of February 28, 2007)
For disclosure purposes only (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we include the category headings of Buy, Hold, and Sell alongsideour ratings of Overweight, Equal-weight and Underweight. Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover.Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (seedefinitions below). To satisfy regulatory requirements, we correspond Overweight, our most positive stock rating, with a buy recommendation; wecorrespond Equal-weight and Underweight to hold and sell recommendations, respectively.
Coverage Universe Investment Banking Clients (IBC)
Stock Rating Category Count % of Total Count% of Total
IBC% of Rating
Category
Overweight/Buy 834 38% 288 42% 35%
Equal-weight/Hold 1003 45% 308 45% 31%
Underweight/Sell 370 17% 91 13% 25%
Total 2,207 687
Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individualcircumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom MorganStanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.
Analyst Stock RatingsOverweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe,on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverageuniverse, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverageuniverse, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
More volatile (V). We estimate that this stock has more than a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than 25% in a month, based on aquantitative assessment of historical data, or in the analyst's view, it is likely to become materially more volatile over the next 1-12 months comparedwith the past three years. Stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically rated as more volatile (unless otherwise noted). We notethat securities that we do not currently consider "more volatile" can still perform in that manner.
Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in this report is 12 to 18 months.
Analyst Industry ViewsAttractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. therelevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in l ine with the relevantbroad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevantbroad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index;Europe - MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant MSCI country index.
Stock price charts and rating histories for companies discussed in this report are available at www.morganstanley.com/companycharts or from your local investment representative. You may also request this information by writing to Morgan Stanley at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Equity Research Management), New York, NY, 10036 USA.
Other Important DisclosuresFor a discussion, if applicable, of the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this summary and the risks related to achieving these targets, please
refer to the latest relevant published research on these stocks. Research is available through your sales representative or on Client Link at www.morganstanley.com and
other electronic systems.
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
March 22, 2007
Oil & Gas
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons
who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Morgan Stanley recommends that investors independently evaluate particular
investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an
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This report is not an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or to participate in any particular trading strategy. The "Important US
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M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
Industry Coverage:Oil & Gas
Company (Ticker) Rating (as of) Price (03/21/2007)
Joseph Mares, CFA
ERG (ERG.MI) E (06/28/2006) €18.53
Galp Energia (GALP.LS) O-V (02/23/2007) €7.38
Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT) U (09/21/2006) €10.60
Mol (MOLB.BU) E (10/23/2006) HUF 19,880.00
Motor Oil (MORr.AT) E (09/21/2006) €20.30
Neste Oil (NES1V.HE) E (10/23/2006) €25.57
OMV AG (OMVV.VI) E (08/18/2006) €42.24
Petroplus (PPHN.S) O-V (01/15/2007) SFr 83.35
PKN Orlen (PKNA.WA) E (10/23/2006) PLN 43.55
Saras (SRS.MI) E-V (06/28/2006) €4.17
Michael J Alsford
Tullow Oil (TLW.L)
Socco International (SIA.L)
O-V (01/15/2007)
O-V (03/22/2007)
369.00p
1411p
Neil W Perry
BG Group (BG.L) O (09/13/2006) 696.00pBP plc (BP.L) E (09/21/2006) 517.00p
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) NA () 1,636.00p
Royal Dutch Shell (RDSb.L) U (09/21/2006) 1,620.00p
TOTAL (TOTF.PA) O (03/15/2007) €49.88
Theepan Jothilingam, CFA
Burren Energy (BUR.L) E-V (04/25/2006) 760.00p
Cairn Energy (CNE.L) O-V (04/25/2006) 1,557.00p
Dana Petroleum (DNX.L) O-V (08/07/2006) 1,029.00p
Eni SpA (ENI.MI) E (03/05/2007) €23.19
Norsk Hydro AS (NHY.OL) ++ NKr 193.50
Repsol-YPF (REP.MC) U (03/21/2007) €23.92
Statoil (STL.OL) ++ NKr 157.00
Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.
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